• The dollar fell after Fed minutes confirmed expectations for a Fed rate cut in September.

• Eurozone business activity strengthened in August.

• Negotiated wage growth in the Eurozone eased in the second quarter.

The EUR/USD outlook is optimistic as the dollar remains fragile after dovish Fed minutes. However, the euro fluctuated Thursday morning after mixed economic reports from the Eurozone.

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The general trend for EUR/USD remained up as Fed minutes confirmed expectations for a Fed rate cut in September. Policymakers were ready to start lowering borrowing costs if economic data met expectations. July inflation data came out after the Fed policy meeting and showed an expected easing to 2.9%. Therefore, there is little holding the Fed back from cutting interest rates. As a result, the dollar has collapsed, allowing the euro to reach new highs.

Meanwhile, data on Thursday showed that Eurozone business activity strengthened in August, further boosting the euro. The composite PMI rose from July’s 50.2 to 51.2, while economists had expected the figure to drop to 50.1. This report reduced pressure on the European Central Bank to cut interest rates.

However, a separate report revealed that negotiated wage growth in the Eurozone eased in the second quarter. The figure fell from 4.74% to 3.55%. This is a key measure for the ECB and affects the outlook for rate cuts. Slow wage growth reduces economic demand, piling pressure on the central bank to lower borrowing costs.

Currently, markets imply an over 90% likelihood of an ECB rate cut in September. Moreover, the central bank might cut again in December.

EUR/USD key events today

• US unemployment claims
• US flash manufacturing PMI
• US flash services PMI

EUR/USD technical outlook: Indecision signals looming retreat

On the technical side, the EUR/USD price has paused its rally near the 1.1150 resistance level. Bulls have moved steeply from the 30-SMA, breaking above resistance levels. The bullish bias has strengthened with the price well above the 30-SMA and the RSI in the overbought region.

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However, price action shows indecision at the 1.1150 level after such a strong move. The price has made small-bodied candles with large wicks, indicating that neither bears nor bulls are strong. It also indicates exhaustion of the previous move. Therefore, the price might soon fall to retest the 30-SMA support.

https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/08/22/eur-usd-outlook-dollar-weakens-euro-ranges-on-mixed-data/