• Tensions in the Middle East had investors rushing for the greenback.

• Incoming data might alter expectations for the size of Fed rate cuts.

• ECB policymakers are ready to start lowering borrowing costs in September.

The EUR/USD forecast points south as the dollar rallies ahead of GDP and inflation data. As Middle East tensions escalate, the dollar has recovered from recent lows due to safe-haven demand. Meanwhile, ECB policymakers are getting comfortable with a rate cut in September.

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The dollar was initially weak after Powell’s speech on Friday, which solidified bets for a September Fed rate cut. However, the trend reversed this week as tensions in the Middle East had investors rushing for the greenback. The Gaza war has grown, and prospects of a ceasefire agreement have dimmed. The dollar tends to rise in times of global uncertainty.

However, downward pressure remains as investors fully price a Fed pivot in September. Incoming data might alter expectations for the size of rate cuts. Currently, there is a higher chance of a 25-bps rate cut. However, further economic weakness and easing price pressure could lead to a more significant rate cut.

Market participants expect GDP data today to show the economy’s state. Recent GDP figures have shown resilience, so an unexpectedly poor figure could boost rate-cut expectations. At the same time, the US will release its PCE price index on Friday, showing the state of inflation.

Meanwhile, ECB policymakers are ready to start lowering borrowing costs in September. However, some, like Klaas Knot, remain cautious, saying more data is needed to confirm the rate cut.

EUR/USD key events today

• US prelim GDP q/q
• US unemployment claims

EUR/USD technical forecast: Bears eye the 1.1050 support after reversal

On the technical side, the EUR/USD price is collapsing after breaking below and retesting the 30-SMA. This is a sign that bears have taken charge and reversed the trend. The previous bullish trend peaked at the 1.1201 resistance level, where bullish momentum weakened.

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Notably, the RSI made a bearish divergence, showing fading momentum as the price made higher highs. Eventually, bears overpowered bulls, pushing the price below the 30-SMA. At the same time, the RSI dipped below 50 to trade in bearish territory. The price might soon reach the 1.1050 support level due to the strong bearish bias.

https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/08/29/eur-usd-forecast-correcting-gains-ahead-of-us-gdp/