• US data revealed continued contraction in the manufacturing sector.

• Wall Street and risk-sensitive currencies like the Australian dollar plunged on Tuesday.

• Australia’s economy remained slow in the second quarter.

The AUD/USD forecast shows more downside potential as the dollar hovers near recent peaks after an overnight rush of safe-haven inflows. However, it retreated slightly on Wednesday, allowing the Aussie to recover despite downbeat data from Australia.

–Are you interested to learn more about day trading brokers? Check our detailed guide-

The dollar pulled back from recent highs as investors booked profits after a rally in the previous session. On Tuesday, US data revealed continued contraction in the manufacturing sector, raising fears the economy will tip into a recession. The ISM manufacturing PMI came in at 47.2, below estimates of 47.5. Investors have become very sensitive to economic reports as the economy slows down. Notably, Wall Street and risk-sensitive currencies like the Australian dollar plunged. Meanwhile, currencies considered safe havens, like the yen and the dollar, rallied.

However, this move faded by Wednesday as the focus shifted to the upcoming US nonfarm payrolls. Slower-than-expected job growth and high unemployment could trigger another round of turmoil in the markets. Market participants are on high alert, looking for signs that the US economy is slowing too fast. Recession worries can hurt the Australian dollar and strengthen the US dollar.

Elsewhere, data from Australia on Wednesday revealed that the economy remained slow in the second quarter. The GDP was at 0.2%, holding at the same rate as the previous quarter. Meanwhile, analysts had expected a 0.3% expansion. At the same time, the annual figure eased from 1.3% to 1.0%. High interest rates are curbing demand. As a result, investors are pricing a 90% chance of an RBA rate cut in December.

AUD/USD key events today

• US JOLTS Job Openings

AUD/USD technical forecast: Bears stall near 0.6700

On the technical side, the AUD/USD price has paused its decline at the 0.6700 key support level. It sits well below the 30-SMA with the RSI in bearish territory, indicating a bearish bias. The previous bullish trend reversed after the RSI made a bearish divergence.

–Are you interested to learn more about automated trading? Check our detailed guide-

The price has recovered slightly after finding support at the 0.6700 level. Bulls might trigger a pullback to the 30-SMA before the downtrend continues. However, if bearish momentum remains strong, the price will likely breach the support to retest the 0.6600 level.

https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/09/04/aud-usd-forecast-dollar-gains-amid-risk-flows/