• US manufacturing business activity data raised fears of a recession.

• US nonfarm payrolls missed forecasts, showing a drop in demand.

• The dollar declined as rate-cut expectations rose.

The EUR/USD weekly forecast is bullish as US data continuously supports a rate cut at the September Fed meeting.

Ups and downs of EUR/USD

The EUR/USD pair had a bullish week but closed below its highs as investors reacted to a mix of US economic reports. When the week began, US manufacturing business activity data raised fears of a recession, boosting the dollar. However, it also raised the likelihood of a 50 bps rate cut.

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Meanwhile, employment data showed a weaker labor market with fewer job vacancies and slower private-sector growth. At the same time, nonfarm payrolls missed forecasts, showing a drop in demand. Nevertheless, some positive reports, including business activity in the services sector, jumped. Overall, the dollar declined as rate-cut expectations rose.

Next week’s key events for EUR/USD

Next week, investors will focus on US inflation data. On Wednesday, the US will release the consumer price index. The last report showed cooling price pressures, moving closer to the 2% target. However, this time, the Fed has shifted its focus to growth since inflation is already on a consistent downtrend.

Recent inflation reports have increased confidence that high rates have tamed price pressures. As a result, policymakers will likely cut rates on Wednesday, regardless of the outcome. However, a softer-than-expected report could convince them to vote for a 50 bps rate cut.

Otherwise, it will likely be a 25 bps rate cut. However, if there is an unexpected jump, it could affect policy moves after September. A less aggressive Fed could boost the dollar, pushing EUR/USD lower.

EUR/USD weekly technical forecast: Price pauses at solid support zone

On the technical side, the EUR/USD price has returned to retest the 22-SMA and the 0.382 Fib level. However, the price has paused above these key support levels, showing bears are exhausted. Moreover, it indicates a possible continuation of the bullish trend.

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Since the price broke above the 1.0901 resistance, bullish momentum surged, pushing the price to the 1.1201 critical level. At the same time, the RSI entered the overbought region. Given the bullish bias, the price might soon bounce off the SMA to make a higher high. Consequently, EUR/USD might break above 1.1201 in the coming week.

https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/09/07/eur-usd-weekly-forecast-us-data-builds-case-for-sep-rate-cut/