• ECB president Christine Lagarde said there was no predetermined rate-cut path.

• The likelihood of another 25-bps ECB rate cut fell from 30% to 20%.

• Former Fed policymaker Bill Dudley noted a solid case for a 50-bps rate cut.

The EUR/USD outlook is inclined to the upside after ECB officials failed to give clear guidance on future rate cuts. The cautious tone led to a decline in ECB rate cut expectations, strengthening the euro. At the same time, the dollar remained vulnerable after news outlets on Friday renewed bets for a 50-bps Fed rate cut this week.

On Thursday, the European Central Bank cut rates by 25-bps as expected. However, market participants had expected clear guidance on futures rate cuts. ECB president Christine Lagarde said there was no predetermined path for rate cuts. Therefore, the central bank will decide on a meeting-by-meeting basis. Furthermore, she noted that service inflation remains high. Market participants took this message as a lower chance of another rate cut in October. As a result, the likelihood of another 25-bps rate cut fell from 30% to 20%.

A gradual pace for rate cuts in the Eurozone could diverge with an expected aggressive Fed rate-cutting cycle. Notably, expectations for a super-sized September Fed rate cut on Friday soared. Former Fed policymaker Bill Dudley noted a solid case for a 50-bps rate cut.

The jump in rate-cut bets continued on Monday, putting pressure on the greenback. Nevertheless, the outlook remains uncertain since the likelihood of a 25-bps cut is also high. Therefore, the outcome on Thursday might catch some people off guard, causing turmoil in the markets.

EUR/USD key events today

Market participants are not looking forward to any high-impact events today. Therefore, the pair might have a slow day.

EUR/USD technical outlook: Bulls eying 1.11151

On the technical side, the EUR/USD price has risen to challenge its previous high. The bullish bias is strong since the price sits well above the 30-SMA. At the same time, the RSI trades near the overbought region. The trend reversed after the RSI made a bullish divergence with the price.

Bulls are now approaching the 1.1151 key resistance. A break above this level would solidify the bullish bias and confirm a new uptrend. Furthermore, it would clear the path for the price to revisit the 1.1200 critical resistance level.

https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/09/16/eur-usd-outlook-ecb-unclear-on-rate-cuts-eyes-on-fomc/