• The US dollar remained fragile on Friday after the FOMC policy meeting on Wednesday.

• Data on Thursday revealed that US unemployment claims fell significantly.

• The Bank of England kept interest rates unchanged on Thursday.

The GBP/USD outlook shows solid bullish momentum after a supersized Fed rate cut and a pause by the Bank of England. The massive Fed rate cut weighed on the dollar, which fell against most major peers. Meanwhile, the Bank of England held rates after a cut in the last meeting, boosting the pound.

The US dollar remained fragile on Friday after the FOMC policy meeting on Wednesday, which resulted in a 50-bps rate cut. Economists had forecast a smaller 25-bps rate cut. Meanwhile, traders were pricing a 65% chance of a massive cut. Nevertheless, it came as a surprise to some, putting pressure on the greenback.

The Fed lowered borrowing costs significantly despite signs that the economy is stable. According to Powell, the cut was meant to keep the unemployment rate low. At the same time, it revealed confidence that high rates had finally tamed inflation. Still, there were fears that the rate cut was a sign of a bleak future for the US economy.

Meanwhile, data on Thursday revealed that US unemployment claims fell significantly, showing tight labor market conditions. More upbeat data would increase the likelihood of a soft landing for the Fed.

On the other hand, the Bank of England kept interest rates unchanged on Thursday as expected. Inflation in the UK has eased significantly. However, the central bank is focused on service inflation which came above estimates.

GBP/USD key events today

There won’t be any key economic reports from the UK or the US today. Therefore, the pair might consolidate after recent gains.

GBP/USD technical outlook: Bulls struggling to sustain above 1.3300

On the technical side, the GBP/USD price has met the 1.3301 key resistance level. Although the bias is bullish and the price has made a higher high, it might soon retreat to retest the 30-SMA.

The recent rally pushed the price far above the SMA. At the same time, the RSI rose to trade near the overbought region. However, it made a bearish divergence with the price, indicating weaker bullish momentum. If this divergence plays out, the price might soon drop. Still, the bullish trend will continue if it stays above the SMA.

https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/09/20/gbp-usd-outlook-fed-boe-divergence-boosts-sterling/