LITTLETON, Colorado, Aug 21 (Reuters) - The United States' third most populous state has the country's dirtiest major power system, and looks set to become a stand-out by remaining highly dependent on fossil fuels even as the rest of the nation transitions power systems towards cleaner energy.

Fossil fuels generated over 80% of Florida's electricity supplies since the beginning of June, according to LSEG data.

That was the highest fossil-fired power share in over three years for the summer period, and compares to 62.4% for the national average, 62% for the power system of Texas, and 72% for the main power system covering the southeast region.

Florida's system is also the only major power network that has increased its overall fossil fuel dependency so far in 2024 compared to the year before.

Just over 77.2% of Florida's power was produced from fossil fuels from Jan. 1 to Aug. 19, compared to 71.3% for the same period in 2023, LSEG data shows.

That rising trend contrasts with drops in fossil fuel dependency nationally and among other regional systems this year, and means Florida is the only major power network that has a growing reliance on fossil fuels.

Yet several factors, including a recent repeal of state renewable energy goals and a ban on offshore wind farms, look set to restrict generation options for power firms, and may continue to delay Florida's energy transition progress.

GASSED UP

Natural gas is the foundation of Florida's power system, with nearly 50 gas-fired power stations supplying around 72% of the state's power, according to the United States Energy Information Administration (EIA).

Coal-fired generation has been steadily reduced in the state's power mix over the past decade, but still accounts for around 5%-6% of total electricity generation, while oil-fired power stations account for another 1%, Ember data shows.

All told, such a heavy reliance on fossil fuels for power results in a hefty emissions toll.

The state's power sector discharged just over 108 million metric tons of carbon dioxide and equivalent gases in 2023, or about 7.4% of the national total for power sector pollution.

Florida's pollution tonnage last year was down 1.3% from the year before, and reflects the cuts made to coal-fired power in recent years.

However, Florida's emissions have declined by far less than the national average, which dropped 5% in 2023 from 2022.

The state's recent emissions cuts have also been overshadowed by the cuts made by other fossil-heavy states, including West Virginia (-9.6% in 2023), Wyoming (-7.2%) and Colorado (-6.2%), Ember data shows.

Over the longer run, Florida's power pollution reductions look even more paltry, coming in at 3.1% between 2018 and 2023 compared to a 7.2% drop in Texas, a 25% drop in West Virginia and a 14% drop nationally over the same period.

TOUGH GOING

A slew of factors have conspired to limit the scope for power firms to reduce their collective reliance on fossil fuels.

On the supply side, limited incentives and low wind speeds have curtailed the build-out of renewable energy output.

For solar, Florida has been one of the few states without a tax credit for solar systems, which has meant that home owners have had to bear a majority of system costs themselves.

Even so, Florida has been the country's third-fastest growth market for solar installations, with capacity climbing from 1,432 megawatts (MW) in 2018 to over 10,000 MW in 2023, according to the Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA).

Net metering deals that to pay households for excess electricity steered onto local grids look set to sustain demand for small-scale solar systems in Florida going forward, while utilities have deployed more large-scale solar systems than any other state so far in 2024, according to EIA data.

The state's wind generation sector remains nonexistent, however, with no onshore farms in operation and a ban in place since July 1 on offshore projects.

That total absence of any large-scale wind generation capacity means that Florida's power firms will struggle to boost renewable generation at the same pace as rival states such as Texas, where both solar and wind capacity is being developed.

At the same time, Florida's power firms face steep annual climbs in energy demand, thanks in part to heavy use of power-hungry air conditioners due to the state's hot and humid climate, and a massive tourism industry that drives electricity use in the state's roughly 500,000 hotel rooms.

Florida has also seen power demand increase due to rapid growth in its population, which has swelled by roughly 20% since 2010 to over 23 million in 2024.

In combination, continued growth in power demand alongside only piecemeal expansions in clean energy supplies look set to keep Florida's power sector heavily dependent on natural gas for a majority of its power needs for the foreseeable future.

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https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/florida-reverses-energy-transition-by-cranking-fossil-fuel-use-maguire-2024-08-21/