2025-03-31 11:11
The USD/CAD outlook shows a sharp decline in the Canadian dollar to start a week. On Wednesday, Canada might finally start feeling the pain of a high blanket tariff. Data in the previous session also showed hotter-than-expected underlying US inflation. The USD/CAD outlook shows a sharp decline in the Canadian dollar to start a week when Trump might impose a 25% tariff on Canada. Consequently, traders dumped the loonie, anticipating negative impacts on Canada’s economy. Meanwhile, the dollar surged after upbeat inflation figures in the previous session. -Are you looking for the best AI Trading Brokers? Check our detailed guide- Since February, Canada has narrowly escaped a 25% US tariff as Trump kept postponing and suspending. However, on Wednesday, Canada might finally start feeling the pain of such a high blanket tariff on all its imports to the US. Canada exports nearly 75% of its goods to the US. Therefore, the impact of such a tariff will be massive on the economy. However, Canada will not take the tariff lying down. Top officials have shown their readiness to impose counter-tariffs. This would escalate the trade war between the two countries. As a result, there was little delight after data on Friday revealed a bigger-than-expected expansion in Canada’s economy. Meanwhile, data in the previous session also showed hotter-than-expected underlying inflation in the US. It will likely keep the Fed cautious, boosting the dollar. USD/CAD key events today Market participants do not expect any key releases from Canada or the US today. Any volatility will come from the anticipation of US tariffs. USD/CAD technical outlook: Trendline breakout signaling uptrend On the technical side, the USD/CAD price has broken above its bearish trendline, indicating a surge in bullish momentum. Before the breakout, the price oscillated between this trendline and the 1.4250 support level. There was no clear direction in the market as the price chopped through the 30-SMA. -Are you looking for the best MT5 Brokers? Check our detailed guide- However, the breakout indicates that bulls might be ready to start an uptrend. The price has made a solid swing above the 30-SMA. At the same time, the RSI has risen to trade nearer the overbought region, showing stronger bullish momentum. Still, they must break above the 1.4400 resistance level to make a higher high and confirm a new trend. If the price fails to break above this resistance, it might drop to retest the trendline before climbing higher or falling back to the 1.4250 support. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/03/31/usd-cad-outlook-loonie-takes-a-nosedive-amid-25-tariff/
2025-03-31 09:08
The USD/JPY forecast indicates increasing panic over the global economy. The yen was on the front foot at the start of the week. Data showed that the US core PCE price index increased by a bigger-than-expected 0.4%. The USD/JPY forecast indicates increasing panic over the global economy as Trump’s April tariffs loom. As a result, the yen soared on Monday amid safe-haven demand. On the other hand, the dollar collapsed as Treasury yields fell due to increased demand for bonds. -Are you looking for the best AI Trading Brokers? Check our detailed guide- The yen was on the front foot to start the week as market participants worried about new Trump tariffs beginning on Wednesday. The US president has promised a 25% auto tariff and reciprocal tariffs on almost all countries that trade with the US. As a result, experts are forecasting an escalation of the global trade war. At the same time, the rising cost of goods might drive inflation higher in most countries. Weak global growth will mean an erosion of investors’ money. Therefore, many traders prefer to put their cash in safe-haven assets like the yen, gold, and US debt. The dollar has remained fragile since Friday despite data showing an unexpected surge in underlying inflation. Notably, the core PCE price index increased by 0.4%. Meanwhile, economists had expected an increase of 0.3%. The inflation report will keep the Fed cautious. This week, traders will watch the US monthly employment figures. USD/JPY key events today Market participants do not expect any key economic reports today. Therefore, all focus will remain on the looming Trump tariffs. USD/JPY technical forecast: Sentiment shifts with channel breakout On the technical side, the USD/JPY price has broken out of its bullish channel, indicating a bearish shift in sentiment. Currently, the price trades well below the 30-SMA, and the RSI is nearing the oversold region. Therefore, the bearish bias is strong. -Are you looking for the best MT5 Brokers? Check our detailed guide- Initially, the price made higher highs and lows within a bullish channel. However, the rally paused when bulls met the 151.01 resistance level. The price made a double top at this level, plus a bearish RSI divergence, signalling a looming reversal. Soon after, a surge in bearish momentum saw the price break below the 30-SMA. At the same time, the RSI dipped into bearish territory below 50. Given the solid bearish momentum, the price will soon retest the 148.25 support level If the downtrend continues, USD/JPY will likely reach the 146.75 support level. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/03/31/usd-jpy-forecast-traders-brace-for-trumps-next-move/
2025-03-29 17:53
The USD/CAD weekly forecast indicates unexpected strength in Canada’s economy. US data this week came in higher than expected, easing fears of a recession. There is uncertainty over Trump’s looming tariffs. The USD/CAD weekly forecast indicates unexpected strength in Canada’s economy that is keeping the loonie afloat. Ups and downs of USD/CAD The USD/CAD pair had a bearish week as the Canadian dollar strengthened despite fears of a looming 25% tariff on Canada. Meanwhile, uncertainty regarding Trump’s April tariffs kept traders on the sidelines. -Are you looking for the best AI Trading Brokers? Check our detailed guide- US data this week came in higher than expected, easing fears of a recession. These included business activity, GDP and inflation figures. As a result, the dollar rebounded. However, uncertainty over Trump’s looming tariffs kept a lid on gains. Meanwhile, the Canadian dollar gained after data revealed a bigger-than-expected expansion in Canada’s economy. The currency performed well despite a dimming outlook for the economy due to Trump’s tariffs. Next week’s key events for USD/CAD Next week, both the US and Canada will release crucial monthly employment data showing the state of their labor markets. Economists forecast a slight increase in job growth in Canada. However, the unemployment rate might also edge higher. Meanwhile, in the US, job growth might ease in March, with the unemployment rate holding at 4.1%. Better-than-expected figures will lower expectations for BoC and Fed rate cuts. On the other hand, weakness in the labor market would pile pressure on both central banks to lower borrowing costs. USD/CAD weekly technical forecast: Price remains in consolidation On the technical side, the USD/CAD price is below the 22-SMA, and the RSI is under 50, indicating a bearish bias. However, the price also trades in a range between the 1.4175 support and the 1.4502 resistance level. It entered this range after a solid bullish rally. An attempt to continue the uptrend failed when the price met the 1.4804 resistance. As a result, the price fell back into the consolidation area. -Are you looking for the best MT5 Brokers? Check our detailed guide- Within the range, bears are in the lead. Therefore, the price might soon retest the range support. A break below this level would confirm a bearish reversal, allowing the price to retest the 1.3802 support. On the other hand, if bulls take back control within the range, the price will retest the 1.4502 resistance. A break above this level would confirm a continuation of the previous bullish trend. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/03/29/usd-cad-weekly-forecast-surprise-data-keeps-loonie-afloat/
2025-03-29 17:51
The AUD/USD weekly forecast shows a resilient Aussie. Inflation in Australia increased by a smaller-than-expected 2.4%. Economists believe the RBA will keep rates unchanged. The AUD/USD weekly forecast shows a resilient Aussie as market participants gear up for the RBA meeting and Trump tariffs. Ups and downs of AUD/USD The AUD/USD pair had a slightly bullish week as the Australian dollar gained despite weak inflation figures from Australia. However, the pair closed below its highs. Meanwhile, the dollar fluctuated between gains and losses as traders worried about looming tariffs and absorbed upbeat US data. -Are you looking for the best AI Trading Brokers? Check our detailed guide- Data on Wednesday revealed that inflation in Australia increased by a smaller-than-expected 2.4%. However, RBA policymakers are likely to remain cautious due to high underlying inflation. Meanwhile, Trump confirmed an automobile tariff starting next week that might escalate global trade tensions. Next week’s key events for AUD/USD Next week, market participants will focus on the Reserve Bank of Australia policy meeting. Additionally, they will focus on monthly employment data from the US. The RBA implemented its first rate cut in February. However, this time, economists believe the central bank will keep rates unchanged. Meanwhile, the US might record slower job growth, with the unemployment rate holding at 4.1%. A surprising figure will cause volatility and shape the outlook for Fed rate cuts. AUD/USD weekly technical forecast: Bears set their sights on the 0.6100 support On the technical side, the AUD/USD price trades slightly below the 22-SMA with the RSI below 50, suggesting a bearish bias. However, the price has been chopping through the SMA since it paused near the 0.6100 support level. -Are you looking for the best MT5 Brokers? Check our detailed guide- Initially, AUD/USD was in a developed downtrend, keeping below the 22-SMA with the RSI under 50. However, the decline paused when the price reached the 0.6100 support level. Here, it entered a corrective phase in which bulls and bears were almost equally matched. This corrective move rose and paused at a solid resistance zone comprising the 0.382 Fib retracement and the 0.6390 level. Currently, bears are trying to push off the 22-SMA. A surge in momentum next week might allow the price to retest the 0.6100 support. A break below this level will confirm a continuation of the downtrend. On the other hand, if bulls overpower bears, the price will break above the SMA and the resistance zone to start making higher highs and lows. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/03/29/aud-usd-weekly-forecast-resilient-despite-tariffs-eying-rba/
2025-03-28 09:16
The USD/JPY price analysis indicates increasing price pressures in Japan’s capital. Core inflation in Tokyo rose by 2.4%. The US economy grew by 2.4% in the last quarter, bigger than the forecast of 2.3%. The USD/JPY price analysis indicates increasing price pressures in Japan’s capital that might convince the BoJ to keep hiking rates. As a result, the yen strengthened against the dollar on Friday. However, the greenback had also rebounded in the previous session after upbeat GDP data. On Friday, data from Japan revealed that core inflation in Tokyo rose by 2.4%. Meanwhile, economists had expected a 2.2% rise. The hotter-than-expected price pressures will encourage BoJ policymakers to keep hiking interest rates. Recently, Governor Ueda has noted that the central bank was ready to keep hiking as long as inflation stays above the 2% target. However, economists in a Reuters poll indicated that the next rate hike might come in July. At the moment, uncertainty regarding Trump’s tariffs and their impact on the economy might keep policymakers cautious. On the other hand, the dollar recovered on Thursday after positive GDP data. The US economy grew by 2.4% in the last quarter, bigger than the forecast of 2.3%. At the same time, unemployment claims eased slightly from 225,000 to 224,000 last week. The upbeat data eased recession concerns, boosting the dollar. However, uncertainty regarding tariffs in April has kept market participants cautious. Moreover, traders eagerly await the core PCE price index report for more clues on Fed policy. USD/JPY key events today Core PCE Price Index m/m USD/JPY technical price analysis: Bears emerge as 151.01 resistance holds firm On the technical side, the USD/JPY price is falling towards the 30-SMA support after failing to break above the 151.01 resistance level. However, the bias is bullish since the price trades above the 30-SMA. At the same time, the RSI trades slightly above 50, suggesting strong bullish momentum. Furthermore, the price trades within a bullish channel with clear support and resistance levels. However, bulls have shown some weakness at the 151.01 level. The price made a double top plus an RSI divergence that could lead to a deep pullback. This means the price might break below the SMA to retest the channel support. However, if bulls remain in control, the price will bounce off the channel support to reach new highs. Sentiment will only shift if USD/JPY breaks below the channel support. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/03/28/usd-jpy-price-analysis-boj-to-stay-hawkish-as-tokyo-cpi-soars/
2025-03-28 08:38
The AUD/USD outlook shows easing fears of a US recession. The US economy grew by 2.4% last quarter, above estimates of a 2.3% expansion. Economists believe the RBA will keep interest rates unchanged next week. The AUD/USD outlook shows easing fears of a US recession after an upbeat US GDP report, which has revived the dollar. However, trading remains thin amid uncertainty regarding Trump’s April tariffs. Meanwhile, a Reuters poll revealed that economists expect the RBA to hold on Tuesday and signal two more cuts this year. Data on Thursday revealed that the US economy grew by 2.4% last quarter, above estimates of a 2.3% expansion. This was the second upbeat report this week after the business activity data and eased fears of a rapid economic slowdown. However, the outlook for the future remains uncertain. If Trump continues imposing tariffs, the economy will eventually suffer. Market participants expect the US president to announce more tariffs come April 2. These might escalate and ignite new trade wars that would dim the outlook for growth. At the same time, inflation expectations would soar, keeping the Fed on a cautious path. On the other hand, economists in a Reuters poll believe the Reserve Bank of Australia will keep interest rates unchanged next week. Moreover, they believe the central bank will implement its next cut in May. Although inflation is in the 2-3% target band, underlying inflation remains high at 3.2% AUD/USD key events today Core PCE Price Index m/m AUD/USD technical outlook: Choppiness after downtrend On the technical side, the AUD/USD price has paused its decline and entered a period of correction between the 0.6200 support and the 0.6390 resistance. Bulls tried to take charge by pushing the price above the 30-SMA. However, they have failed to start making higher highs and lows, a sign that bears are still fighting to resume the previous downtrend. Within the correction, the price trades below the SMA, with the RSI under 50, suggesting a bearish bias. If this continues, the price will soon drop to the 0.6200 support level. A break below this level would confirm a continuation of the downtrend. On the other hand, if bulls return at any point, they will push the price back above the SMA to retest the 0.6390 resistance level. A break above this level would make a higher high, indicating a new bullish trend. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/03/28/aud-usd-outlook-upbeat-us-gdp-calms-recession-concerns/
