2024-01-02 14:20

The bias is bullish as long as it stays above the lower median line. The US data could be decisive tomorrow. A new higher high activates further growth. The gold price is trading in the red at $2,067 when writing. The precious metal has turned to the downside after reaching today’s high of $2,078. Probably, XAU/USD slipped lower as the US dollar edged higher. Today, the Eurozone reported mixed data, but the traders wait for the US figures before taking action. If you are interested in automated forex trading, check our detailed guide- The Final Manufacturing PMI could jump from 48.2 to 48.4 points, which could be good for the greenback, while Construction Spending may announce a 0.6% growth again. Positive US data should lift the USD. This situation may punish the price of gold. Tomorrow, the US data could be decisive. The ISM Manufacturing PMI could be reported at 47.2 points, which is above 46.7 points in the previous reporting period. The JOLTS Job Openings indicator is expected to be 8.85M in November, above 8.73M in October, while the ISM Manufacturing Prices indicator may be reported at 50.0 points. Still, the most important event is represented by the FOMC Meeting Minutes. As you already know, the FED is expected to deliver a 75 bps cut in 2024, so a dovish report could weaken the USD. Technically, the bias remains bullish as long as it stays above the lower median line (LML) of ascending pitchfork. As you can see on the hourly chart, the price broke out of a flag pattern, signaling an upside continuation. Still, after the last rally, a retreat was somehow expected. If you are interested in guaranteed stop-loss forex brokers, check our detailed guide- The metal could retest the demand zone from right above the lower median line (LML) to attract more buyers before jumping higher. False breakdowns below this dynamic support may announce a new bullish momentum. A new higher high, taking out the 2,081 high, activates further growth. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/01/02/gold-price-retraces-to-demand-zone-as-dollar-probes-recovery/

2024-01-02 11:44

Last year, the pound had its strongest performance since 2017, with a 5% gain. Sticky inflation compelled the Bank of England to delay monetary easing compared to its counterparts. Markets expect a 25 basis point BOE rate cut as soon as May. This Tuesday, the GBP/USD price analysis reveals a subtle bearish undertone, a surprising shift following the currency’s stellar 5% surge last year, marking its most robust performance since 2017. If you are interested in automated forex trading, check our detailed guide- However, the likelihood of another rally this year is low due to a weakening economy and election uncertainty. Notably, sticky inflation forced the Bank of England to delay monetary easing compared to its counterparts. Moreover, the dollar fell amid expectations of an early US rate cut. Last year’s gains position the pound favorably in an anticipated election year. However, the driving forces behind the rally are losing momentum. One factor is the weakening impact of interest-rate differentials. The idea that the Bank of England would lag behind the ECB and Fed in policy easing had initially boosted the pound. However, recent economic data has changed this. In November, UK consumer price inflation sharply eased to 3.9%. At the same time, British gross domestic product was revised downward, revealing a 0.1% contraction in the third quarter. Consequently, traders adjusted their expectations, bringing forward predictions of a first Bank of England rate cut. Currently, markets expect a 25 basis point cut as soon as May, a shift from the previous expectation of August. GBP/USD key events today No significant events are scheduled for the day, making for a quiet trading session. Investors will look forward to key data coming out tomorrow. GBP/USD technical price analysis: Bears strengthen as RSI points to a possible reversal The pound is bullish on the charts as the price is making higher highs and lows and respecting a support trendline. Moreover, the price mainly trades above the 30-SMA with the RSI over 50, supporting the bullish bias. However, this shallow, bullish move has paused near the 1.2800 level. If you are interested in guaranteed stop-loss forex brokers, check our detailed guide- Furthermore, the new high is weaker than the previous one, as seen in the RSI. A bearish divergence in the RSI suggests that bears might soon push the price below the 30-SMA and the support trendline. Additionally, the trend might reverse if the price makes a lower low below the 1.2700 key level. However, the bullish bias will remain if bulls keep the price above the SMA. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/01/02/gbp-usd-price-analysis-pound-weakens-after-2023s-5-surge/

2024-01-02 09:44

Markets are waiting for data from the US this week. Home prices in Australia increased last year, recovering significantly from the 5% drop in 2022. The RBA lifted rates in November last year by a quarter point to 4.35%. The AUD/USD outlook took a bearish turn on Tuesday as the dollar surged on the first day of the year. Traders focused on economic data, anticipating crucial insights into the Fed’s policy outlook. Data from the US this week will include job vacancies and employment change. If you are interested in automated forex trading, check our detailed guide- Additionally, traders will go over minutes from the Fed meeting in December, coming out on Thursday. Meanwhile, home prices in Australia increased last year, recovering significantly from the 5% drop in 2022. However, RBA rate hikes and the high cost of living in the country have negatively impacted growth in the last part of 2023. Property consultant CoreLogic released figures on Tuesday showing prices rose by 8.1% in 2023. However, this increase was far below the 24.5% rise reported in 2021. Meanwhile, prices in December recorded the smallest increase since February, coming in at 0.4%. Notably, the RBA lifted rates in November last year by a quarter point to 4.35%. This hike came due to worries inflation expectations might increase. Consequently, interest rates in the country have risen by a significant 425 basis points starting May last year. Australian households are suffering as high inflation increases financial pressures. Notably, inflation hit a high of 7.8% last December and then fell to 5.4% in the third quarter. Still, the RBA believes that most borrowers in the country can service their mortgages. AUD/USD key events today No high-impact releases are coming from the US or Australia today. Therefore, the pair will likely pause ahead of data coming out tomorrow. AUD/USD technical outlook: Bears puncture SMA after bearish RSI divergence On the technical side, AUD/USD bears have strengthened enough to puncture the 30-SMA support. This move comes after the RSI made a bearish divergence with the price as bullish momentum weakened. Notably, the bullish trend started weakening at the 0.6725 key level as the slope of the trend became shallow. If you are interested in guaranteed stop-loss forex brokers, check our detailed guide- Finally, the trend stopped at the 0.6850 key level. Although bulls tried to push above this resistance, bears soon took over, sending the price below the SMA. At the same time, the RSI punctured the pivotal 50 mark. Still, the price is retesting 0.6850 before likely dropping further. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/01/02/aud-usd-outlook-dollar-strengthens-ahead-of-key-data/

2023-12-23 19:02

The Canadian economy experienced its third consecutive month of sluggish performance. Canada’s annual inflation rate stayed at 3.1% in November. US prices experienced their first decline in over 3 1/2 years in November. The outlook takes a bearish turn in the USD/CAD weekly forecast as the Bank of Canada urges caution, deeming it premature to anticipate rate cuts. Meanwhile, in the US, traders expect rate cuts in 2024 against the backdrop of softer inflation. –Are you interested to learn more about forex options trading? Check our detailed guide- Ups and downs of USD/CAD The pair had a bearish week as the Canadian dollar strengthened with oil prices amid supply concerns. Moreover, the currency weakened due to a decline in the dollar after the core PCE index report. In November, US prices experienced their first decline in over 31/2 years. This downturn increased expectations of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in March. Meanwhile, the Canadian economy experienced its third consecutive month of sluggish performance in October. Moreover, economists predict a modest growth outlook for November. The central bank asserts that it’s premature to anticipate rate cuts. However, financial markets expect a decline in interest rates starting in April. Elsewhere, Canada’s annual inflation rate stayed at 3.1% in November, surpassing the central bank’s 2% target. Next week’s key events for USD/CAD There are no key events next week as markets will be closed for Christmas. Therefore, investors will prepare for next year. The new year will start with major reports from the US, including the FOMC meeting minutes and the monthly employment report. Similarly, Canada will release data on employment change. Traders will be keen on the FOMC meeting minutes as they might contain clues on the Fed’s policy outlook. Meanwhile, the employment reports from the US and Canada will influence decisions at the next Fed and BoC policy meetings. USD/CAD weekly technical forecast: Decline pauses at the 1.27 fib extension level The USD/CAD price has broken below major support levels, strengthening the bearish bias. After respecting the 22-SMA as resistance, the price fell through the 1.3500 and 1.3350 support levels. At the same time, it fell well below the SMA, showing a steep and robust bearish move. Meanwhile, the RSI dipped into oversold territory, supporting solid bearish momentum. –Are you interested to learn more about forex tools? Check our detailed guide- However, the price has also extended to a strong fib support level at 1.27. Therefore, bulls might get the chance to push the price off this support level to retest the 1.3350 key level or the 22-SMA. However, the price will then likely continue lower with the next target at the 1.3100 support. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2023/12/23/usd-cad-weekly-forecast-boc-fed-divergence-favors-bears/

2023-12-23 19:01

Data showed that annual US inflation fell further below 3% in November. Figures on Thursday revealed a worsening UK budget situation. Inflation in the UK was lower than anticipated in November. The dollar is caught in the sway of softer inflation signals and continues its decline, casting a favorable glow on the GBP/USD weekly forecast. –Are you interested to learn more about forex options trading? Check our detailed guide- Ups and downs of GBP/USD The pound ended the week slightly high, although it was nearly flat after fluctuating. It remained stable against the dollar, with traders absorbing the latest information on the UK budget deficit. Moreover, the impact of Wednesday’s November inflation data, which was lower than anticipated, continued to resonate in the market. Thursday’s figures revealed a worsening budget situation for British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, as the November deficit exceeded expectations. Notably, the pair fell on Wednesday to the lowest point in almost two months following the key inflation reading. Meanwhile, the dollar index declined on Friday, reaching a nearly five-month low. This decline came after data showed that annual US inflation had further slowed below 3% in November. Consequently, it strengthened market expectations for a US interest rate cut in March. Next week’s key events for GBP/USD The markets will be closed for the Christmas holiday next week, so investors will look out for major events in the first week of 2024. In the first week of 2024, traders will focus on data from the UK and the US, showing business activity in the manufacturing sectors. Additionally, the US will release the FOMC meeting minutes, which will show what policymakers discussed at the last meeting in 2023. Lastly, the US employment report will show the state of the labor market. A higher-than-expected reading could reduce Fed rate cut bets, while the opposite is true. GBP/USD weekly technical forecast: Bullish trend shows signs of a slowdown The bullish trend on the 4-hour chart has slowed down after reaching the 1.2803 resistance level. Moreover, the slope of the 22-SMA has become shallower, and the price is not making big swings from the SMA. At the same time, bears are showing some strength as they keep challenging the SMA support. –Are you interested to learn more about forex tools? Check our detailed guide- Meanwhile, the RSI has made a bearish divergence. While the price has made a new higher high, the RSI has made a lower high, pointing to weaker bullish momentum. Since the price is already trading close to the SMA support, the bearish divergence might lead to a reversal in the trend. However, bears must break below the 22-SMA and the 1.2501 support level to confirm a reversal. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2023/12/23/gbp-usd-weekly-forecast-dollar-falls-as-inflation-eases/

2023-12-22 13:22

The US inflation scenario is now leaning towards lower levels. The dollar index is poised for a weekly loss of approximately 0.73%. Data revealed a 2.5% year-on-year increase in Japan’s core consumer prices for November. Friday’s USD/JPY price analysis was bearish, with the dollar weak and investors on the edge as they eagerly anticipated US inflation data. According to Chris Weston, the head of research at Pepperstone, the US inflation scenario is now unbalanced and leaning towards lower levels. Moreover, the dollar index is poised for a weekly loss of approximately 0.73%, extending the previous week’s 1.3% decline. Meanwhile, the yen held steady, unaffected by Friday’s data revealing a 2.5% year-on-year increase in Japan’s core consumer prices for November. It marked the slowest growth over a year. Moreover, this eases pressure on the Bank of Japan to scale back its substantial stimulus. Notably, the core consumer price index decelerated from the 2.9% gain in October. Furthermore, the Japanese currency appears poised to end the week flat. Earlier in the week, the BoJ maintained its ultra-loose policy settings and provided few indications of when it might shift away from negative interest rates. Elsewhere, the minutes of the Bank of Japan’s October meeting revealed ongoing divisions among board members regarding the timeline for Japan to meet conditions for an exit. Meanwhile, a Reuters poll conducted in November showed that over 80% of economists expected that the BoJ would conclude its negative rate policy next year. USD/JPY key events today US Core PCE Price Index m/m Revised UoM US Consumer Sentiment USD/JPY technical price analysis: Price returns to crucial 142.01 support level On the charts, USD/JPY is back at the 142.01 support level. This comes after a failed attempt to reverse the trend. Initially, buyers threatened to take control when sellers challenged the 142.01 level a second time and failed to break below. However, the price stopped at the resistance trendline and the 145.01 key level. –Are you interested to learn more about forex tools? Check our detailed guide- Therefore, sellers reversed the bullish move and pushed the price back below the 30-SMA. Sellers are challenging the 142.01 support level for a third time. If they are strong enough, the price will break below and fall to the 140.51 level and lower. However, if the support is firm, bulls might resurface. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2023/12/22/usd-jpy-price-analysis-investors-on-edge-ahead-of-us-inflation/