2023-12-07 08:59
The bias is bearish as long as it stays below the median line. The US and Japanese data should be decisive tomorrow. The S2 stands as a static support. The USD/JPY price slumped well below yesterday’s low of 146.89. Fundamentally, the US dollar’s depreciation was expected after the US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change came in at 103K in November versus 131K expected, compared to 106K in October. –Are you interested to learn more about forex options trading? Check our detailed guide- In addition, the Trade Balance, Revised Nonfarm Productivity, and Revised Unit Labor Costs also reported poor data in the last session. Today, the JPY received a helping hand from the Japanese Leading Indicators indicator, which came in at 108.7%, above the 108.2% expected. Later, the US data could move the markets. The Unemployment Claims could jump from 218K to 221K in the last week. The data on Challenger Job Cuts, Consumer Credit, and Final Wholesale Inventories will also be released. The fundamentals will be critical to watch as the US releases the NFP, Unemployment Rate, and Average Hourly Earnings tomorrow. At the same time, Japan publishes the Economy Watchers Sentiment, Final GDP, Current Account, Household Spending, and Average Cash Earnings data. From the technical point of view, the USD/JPY price plunged after failing to approach the weekly pivot point of 147.69 or the upper median line (uml). It came back below the median line (ml) and seems determined to hit new lows. -If you are interested in knowing about scalping forex brokers, then read our guidelines to get started- The 145.00 psychological level stands as the first downside target. In addition, the weekly S2 of 144.67 represents potential static support. As long as it stays below the median line (ml), the rate could approach and reach the lower median line (LML). https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2023/12/07/usd-jpy-price-aiming-to-pounce-145-0-after-downbeat-us-adp/
2023-12-07 08:44
The Bank of Canada (BoC) maintained its key overnight rate at 5%. Canadian economic activity grew at its fastest pace in seven months in November. Canada recorded a larger-than-expected trade surplus of C$2.97 billion in October. The USD/CAD forecast suggests a positive shift favoring the pair as the Canadian dollar weakens after the BoC’s decision to maintain rates. On Wednesday, the Bank of Canada (BoC) kept its key overnight rate at 5%. Still, the bank indicated the possibility of another hike. Additionally, the BOC expressed ongoing concerns about inflation. –Are you interested to learn more about forex options trading? Check our detailed guide- Inflation in Canada fell to 3.1% in October, down from a peak of over 8% last year. However, it is still above the bank’s 2% target. Furthermore, the bank’s policy statement no longer included language from the previous policy about slow progress toward price stability and increased inflationary risks. Instead, the BOC highlighted that labor market pressures had gone down. Moreover, growth slowed in the middle of the year, indicating a drop in demand. Meanwhile, the dollar has stabilized this month following a 3% decline in November. It is stronger because of increased speculation of rate cuts by other central banks. The dollar index was just below Wednesday’s two-week peak of 104.23. On Wednesday, data revealed that US private payrolls rose less than anticipated in November, indicating a gradual cooling in the labor market. Meanwhile, according to data released on Wednesday, Canadian economic activity grew at the fastest pace in seven months in November. Additionally, Statistics Canada reported a larger-than-expected trade surplus of C$2.97 billion ($2.19 billion) in October. USD/CAD key events today US unemployment claims USD/CAD technical forecast: Bearish trend gives way to bullish momentum On the technical side, there has been a trend reversal from bearish to bullish. Buyers took charge at the 1.3500 support level after the RSI made a bullish divergence. Still, they did not show much strength at first. However, the price broke above the 30-SMA with a solid bullish candle. At the same time, the RSI crossed into bullish territory above 50. -If you are interested in knowing about scalping forex brokers, then read our guidelines to get started- However, the bullish move quickly paused at the 1.3600 key resistance level, leading to a consolidation. Moreover, the price is facing a strong resistance trendline. A break above this resistance zone would allow bulls to retest the 1.3700 key level. However, if the resistance holds, sellers might resume the downtrend. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2023/12/07/usd-cad-forecast-loonie-loses-ground-after-bocs-pause/
2023-12-06 11:03
Data revealed US job openings fell to an over 2 ½ year low. There was a slight easing in the downturn of Eurozone business activity last month. Schnabel suggested the ECB could rule out further interest rate hikes. Wednesday’s EUR/USD forecast painted a bearish picture as the dollar stood tall near a two-week high against its peers. Meanwhile, investors digested US economic data indicating a cooling labor market, speculating that the Fed might implement rate cuts next year. Tuesday’s data revealed US job openings fell to an over 2 ½ year low. –Are you interested to learn more about forex options trading? Check our detailed guide- Elsewhere, there was a slight easing in the downturn of Eurozone business activity last month. However, a survey suggested that the bloc’s economy is poised to contract again this quarter. Moreover, the dominant services industry struggles to generate demand, and the last quarter saw a 0.1% contraction in the economy. The November Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), released on Tuesday, pointed to a recurring contraction in the Eurozone this quarter. Consequently, it meets the technical definition of a recession. Meanwhile, European Central Bank (ECB) board member Isabel Schnabel indicated a dovish shift in response to a big fall in inflation. Furthermore, Schnabel advised against rates remaining steady through mid-2024 and suggested the ECB could rule out further interest rate hikes. As a result, expectations of a rate cut rose on Tuesday. Eurozone inflation dropped to 2.4% last month, down from over 10% a year earlier, following ten consecutive rate hikes. Consequently, it brought the ECB’s 2% inflation target into view and raised doubts about policymakers’ warnings of another two years of persistent price growth. EUR/USD key events today The US Private Employment Change report EUR/USD technical forecast: Bears zero in on 1.0751 as the next support The euro has fallen below the 1.0851 key level to make a new low, strengthening the bearish bias. The price trades well below the 30-SMA, and the RSI is oversold. Bears took over when the price made a strong candle that broke below the 30-SMA and the 1.0950 key level. Since then, the price has descended with shallow pullbacks. Bears are now targeting the next support at 1.0751. -If you are interested in knowing about scalping forex brokers, then read our guidelines to get started- However, bulls might soon resurface for a stronger pullback to retest the 30-SMA resistance since the price is currently oversold. It would be the first test since bears took control. Therefore, strong resistance at the SMA would mean bears have a firm hold on the current move and might continue below the 1.0751 support level. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2023/12/06/eur-usd-forecast-dollar-hovers-close-to-a-two-week-peak/
2023-12-06 09:53
XAU/USD remains bearish if it stays below the 50% retracement level. The US data and the BOC should move the rate. A new lower low activates more declines. The gold price dropped as low as $2,009 in the last trading session, where it has found a demand again. The metal has rallied again and is trading at $2,026 at the time of writing. –Are you interested to learn more about forex options trading? Check our detailed guide- After its massive downside movement, a rebound was expected. The US dollar’s leg higher forced the yellow metal to drop. Further rise could drag the price of gold towards new lows. The XAU/USD turned to the upside after the US JOLTS Job Openings came in worse than expected yesterday. The indicator was reported at 8.73M, far below the 9.31M expected and compared to 9.35M in the previous reporting period. Gold rallied in the short term even though the US ISM Services PMI came in better than expected, while Final Services PMI matched expectations. Today, the Australian GDP reported only a 0.2% growth versus the 0.5% growth expected. Later, the US economic data and the BOC should move the rate. The Bank of Canada is expected to keep the Overnight Rate at 5.00%. Still, the BOC Statement could bring sharp movements. In addition, the US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change could be reported at 131K versus 113K in the previous reporting period. The gold price found support on the 61.8% (2,014) and the median line (ml) of the ascending pitchfork. The false breakdown revealed a bounce back. It has reached the supply zone from right below the 50% (2,040) retracement level. -If you are interested in knowing about scalping forex brokers, then read our guidelines to get started- The downside pressure remains high as long as it stays below this static resistance. Only jumping and stabilizing above the 50% retracement level could open the door for a larger rebound. On the other hand, dropping below 61.8% and under the median line, a new lower low activates more declines. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2023/12/06/gold-price-rebounded-from-2009-amid-mixed-us-data/
2023-12-06 09:02
Data revealed minimal growth in Australia’s economy in the third quarter. The RBA might not need to implement further hikes. In the US, data indicated a more than 2-1/2-year low in US job openings in October. In Wednesday’s AUD/USD price analysis, the Aussie showcased resilience despite data revealing minimal growth in Australia’s economy in the third quarter. This sluggish growth marked the eighth consecutive quarter of expansion but the slowest in a year. Notably, real GDP rose by 0.2% from July to September. This figure reinforced the argument that the Reserve Bank of Australia might not need to continue tightening its policy. –Are you interested to learn more about forex options trading? Check our detailed guide- Meanwhile, the annual GDP growth remained at 2.1%, showing little change from the previous quarter. Moreover, the decline is viewed as a deliberate outcome of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s monetary tightening efforts to bring inflation back within its 2-3% target range. In October, inflation was recorded at 4.9%. As a result, the Reserve Bank of Australia decided on Tuesday to maintain the current stance. The bank plans to assess the impact of the substantial 425 basis points increase in interest rates since May last year. As such, market sentiment now leans towards the belief that the RBA might not need to implement further hikes, especially considering recent dovish shifts from the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank. Meanwhile, in the US, data indicated a more than 2-1/2-year low in US job openings in October. It is a strong indication that higher interest rates are dampening demand for workers. Additionally, the data revealed 1.34 job vacancies for every unemployed person in October, marking the lowest since August 2021. AUD/USD key events today The US ADP non-farm employment change AUD/USD technical price analysis: Rebound finds strong resistance at 0.6600 The bias for AUD/USD on the technical side is bearish because the price has made a lower low below the 30-SMA. At the same time, the RSI is in bearish territory below 50, supporting bearish momentum. However, bears found strong support at the 0.382 fib retracement level. This saw the price pull back to retest the recently breached 0.6600 key level. -If you are interested in knowing about scalping forex brokers, then read our guidelines to get started- Still, bulls will not take control until the price exceeds the 30-SMA. Therefore, there is a high chance the price will make a lower high and bounce lower. The next target for the downtrend is at the 0.5 fib level, near the 0.6500 key level. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2023/12/06/aud-usd-price-analysis-aussie-gains-despite-economic-hurdles/
2023-12-05 11:30
The RBA kept interest rates unchanged. Bullock stated that the need for further rate hikes would hinge on incoming data. Analysts attributed the US dollar’s upward movement to a correction following its substantial decline in recent weeks. The AUD/USD price analysis took a bearish turn as the Australian dollar fell, reacting to the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) choice to maintain unchanged interest rates. At the same time, a stronger dollar added to the downward pressure. –Are you interested to learn more about forex options trading? Check our detailed guide- The RBA maintained rates at 4.35%, in line with expectations, and noted that economic data received since November aligned with forecasts. Additionally, Bullock kept to the tempered tightening bias from the previous month. She stated that the need for further rate hikes would hinge on evolving data and risk assessments. Notably, this marked the RBA’s final opportunity to raise rates before the February meeting. Consequently, there is relief for mortgage holders during the holiday season. Matt Simpson, senior market analyst at City Index, noted that the Australian dollar experienced significant gains in recent weeks. Therefore, it might be undergoing profit-taking and the unwinding of bets on a more hawkish RBA statement. Meanwhile, analysts attributed the US dollar’s upward movement to a correction following its decline in recent weeks. The dollar index fell around 3% in November, its sharpest monthly drop in a year. At the same time, investors are awaiting this week’s US economic indicators, including November’s non-manufacturing ISM figures and the highly anticipated nonfarm payrolls report. These will offer more insight into the future trajectory of interest rates. AUD/USD key events today The ISM services PMI report from the US The US JOLTs job openings report AUD/USD technical price analysis: RSI divergence sparks trend reversal The bearish RSI divergence on the 4-hour chart has led to a trend reversal for AUD/USD. Bears have taken the lead, pushing the price below the 30-SMA and the RSI below 50. Notably, the decline came after the price made a bearish engulfing candle. Moreover, the price has broken below the 0.6600 support level. -If you are interested in knowing about scalping forex brokers, then read our guidelines to get started- Meanwhile, bears are now on the verge of making a lower low, which would further confirm a new trend. If this happens, the price will likely make lower highs and lows as it descends to the next support level. The next strong support for bears is a zone comprising the 0.5 fib retracement and the 0.6500 support. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2023/12/05/aud-usd-price-analysis-aussie-takes-a-hit-in-the-wake-of-rba/
