2025-05-09 09:44

The GBP/USD forecast is neutral after a seesaw move under 1.3300. The US-China trade talks remain a pivot for the market participants. The upgraded UK GDP forecast provides support to the pound. The GBP/USD forecast remains neutral above mid-1.3200 during the London session on Friday, paring intraday losses. The greenback eased following a sharp rally in the Asian session. -Are you looking for forex robots? Check our detailed guide- The Dollar Index (DXY) surged to 100.75 on Thursday due to optimism driven by trade developments. The initial spike in the US dollar followed the announcement of the US-UK trade deal. It was the first deal under Trump since Liberation Day. Though the deal had symbolic significance, its economic implications are limited as the US is already in surplus with the UK trade. Markets now pay attention to the US-China trade talks scheduled on May 10 in Switzerland. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Trade Representative Greer will meet their Chinese counterparts to ease trade tension. The US Commerce Secretary also expressed hopes to de-escalate tariff tension. The British pound found support despite initial weakness from domestic factors. The Bank of England cut rates by 25 bps to 4.25% with a 7-2 vote split. Two members favored no change, while two other members advocated for a 50-bps cut. The UK GDP forecast was also revised from 0.75% to 1.0% by the BoE. The central bank also maintained a cautious approach for future rate cuts. These factors aided the pound in pausing its downside against most of its peer currencies. On the other hand, the Fed opted to keep rates unchanged at 4.25%–4.50% for the third consecutive meeting. Chair Powell warned of inflationary risks due to tariff measures. He also noted that sustained trade barriers could lead to stagflation. Looking forward, the GBP/USD traders will be watching developments around US-China trade talks over the weekend and follow-up commentaries from the central banks. Any signs of de-escalation can further shift momentum in the pair. GBP/USD technical forecast: Neutral after recovery The 4-hour chart shows a mixed scenario. The price broke the previous low and the support at 1.3225 but managed to regain above the level. It shows a slight weakness prevailing in the pair. The RSI also rose from the oversold area but remains in the sell zone. -Are you looking for the best CFD broker? Check our detailed guide- The 30-period SMA stays above the price, which also indicates a bearish pressure. However, the SMA can attract a meaningful pullback. The immediate hurdle lies at 1.3300, ahead of 1.3330. On the downside, 1.3225 and 1.3200 are potential support levels. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/05/09/gbp-usd-forecast-recovers-amid-dollar-pullback-trade-talks/

2025-05-09 07:58

The EUR/USD outlook is weak amid trade optimism and dollar strength. US-China trade optimism can stabilize the markets. The Fed’s cautiousness and the ECB’s dovish tone can further weaken the Euro. The EUR/USD outlook turns mildly bearish after breaking the 1.1200 handle briefly during Friday’s Asian session. The downtick move came amid the dollar’s renewed strength and trade optimism. -Are you looking for forex robots? Check our detailed guide- The pair trimmed losses and gained to the 1.1250 area but remains under pressure due to trade developments and stronger US jobs data. President Trump announced a major trade deal with the UK, though the 10% tariffs stay in place. The partial agreement triggered a modest uptick in the dollar. Market sentiment also improved due to the US-China trade talks scheduled on May 10 in Switzerland. Though both sides have tempered expectations, the resumption of negotiations offers stability to the global markets. Meanwhile, President Trump maintains a strong stance against China and reinforced it by appointing a new envoy to Beijing. The President also stated that they won’t offer too many exemptions, which signaled caution. On the data front, the initial jobless claims data from the US dropped to 228k from the previous 241k. Continuing claims also declined by 29k to 1.879 million. Insured employment rate remains constant at 1.2%. These figures show a resilient jobs market, allowing the Fed to maintain interest rates higher for longer. On the other hand, the Euro remains vulnerable as the ECB is more dovish now. The central bank is expected to cut another 25 bps by June. The ECB officials remain concerned about the Eurozone’s economic outlook, even though they are confident in achieving the inflation target by year-end. Key events for EUR/USD FOMC member Waller speaks Trade headlines EUR/USD technical outlook: Selling pressure The 4-hour chart for the EUR/USD shows a mild recovery from the daily lows around 1.1200. The RSI has picked up from the oversold zone but still lies under 50—0, which shows selling pressure. -Are you looking for the best CFD broker? Check our detailed guide- The price is settled well below the 30-period SMA, which is another indicator for a sell-off. However, as long as the 1.1200 handle is protected, the price may recover towards the yearly highs. Breaking the level could lead to 1.1100. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/05/09/eur-usd-outlook-weakened-as-dollar-rises-on-trade-optimism/

2025-05-08 09:35

The US Dollar Index turns positive amid Fed’s cautiousness. Geopolitical concerns keep the gains capped. US-China trade talks pose a temporary optimism. The US Dollar Index (DXY) hovers around the 100.00 area during the early European session on Thursday. The recent upside stems from the Fed’s cautious stance and wait-and-watch approach. Moreover, market participants are looking for coming up US-China trade negotiations. -Are you looking for forex robots? Check our detailed guide- The Fed’s post-meeting statement on Wednesday admitted inflation and unemployment risk as Jerome Powell cautioned about tariffs disrupting global trade. According to CME FedWatch Tool, markets are pricing in 25 bps rate cut by July. Powell also indicated that the Fed’s future path would be driven by the economic data, and ongoing trade tension may force the central bank to stay cautious. Geopolitical concerns are also weighing on the dollar. The tension between Russia and Ukraine and the Middle East crisis have soured the risk sentiment, pushing investors to seek safe-haven assets like gold, yen, and Swiss franc. However, the dollar managed to post modest gains for the second consecutive session. Market participants eye US-China trade talks set on May 10 in Switzerland. The US Treasury Secretary will meet China’s top officials in the first formal dialogue related to the tariffs. Though the announcement boosted the sentiment, the expectations have been tempered, calling the meeting a preliminary step. However, President Trump came with a bold teaser on social media, promising a major trade deal announcement on Thursday. Analysts remain skeptical of the long-term impacts of tariffs even if there’s a relief in the short run. US Dollar Index (DXY) Technical Analysis: Bulls break 30-SMA The 4-hour chart of the US dollar shows a surge above the 30-period SMA which is a bullish sign for the index. The price bounced off the trendline support and is looking to test the 1004.0 area, which is the previous peak. If the level is broken, the index may eye the 101.00 area. -Are you looking for the best CFD broker? Check our detailed guide- On the flip side, the DXY staying below 100.00 can urge sellers to pounce at 99.50. Further sell-off can lead to testing the psychological mark at 99.00. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/05/08/us-dollar-index-at-key-levels-amid-cautious-fed-trade-talks/

2025-05-08 06:19

Gold trades near $3,400 amid safe-haven demand and a weaker USD. Trump tempers U.S.-China trade optimism by refusing tariff concessions. Geopolitical risks rise with new developments in Ukraine, Russia, Yemen, and South Asia. The Fed holds rates steady, adopts a cautious stance on economic outlook. The gold forecast is strongly bullish as the price edged close to a 2-week top amid geopolitical developments and US macro data. The precious metal continued its rally beyond $3,400 on Thursday. A weaker dollar and lingering trade uncertainties keep the gold price underpinned. -Are you looking for forex robots? Check our detailed guide- The US President Trump signaled no urgency in resolving US-China trade conflict which turned investor sentiment cautious. He stated that he’s not open to reduce the current tariff of 145% on Chinese imports. These remarks dampened the trade deal optimism and reignited the safe-haven demand for gold. Moreover, risk aversion stemming from geopolitical tensions has also taken center stage. Ukrainian drone strikes on Moscow, just hours before Russia’s announcement of ceasefire. Later, Ukraine accused Russia of violating truce with guided bombs. Simultaneously, tension in the Middle East regarding Israel’s attack on Yemen’s main airport and Houthis’ potential retaliation has soured the global risk sentiment. Moreover, India-Pakistan tension at border also keeps geopolitical risk elevated. At monetary policy arena, the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged at 4.25% – 4.50% during policy meeting on Wednesday. Fed Chair Jerome Powell noted enhanced economic uncertainty due to tariff policies. He indicated that the central bank will adopt wait and watch approach rather than cutting rates in near term. Though Fed’s tone was cautious, it couldn’t ignite buying in US dollar which served as another catalyst for gold’s rally. However, gold lacks aggressively bullish bets as equities found support amid Trump’s recent announcement of a major trade agreement with China. During his press conference, he said he would reveal the deal involving a highly respected country. Key Events for Gold Trump’s announcement regarding trade agreement US initial jobless claims Gold Technical Forecast: Bulls fail to sustain $3,400 The 4-hour gold chart shows a strong pullback from above the $3,400 level. This is the second attempt that failed to sustain above the $3,400 area. However, the technical indicators are still bullish for the metal. The RSI is above 50.0 and the price is well above 30-period SMA. -Are you looking for the best CFD broker? Check our detailed guide- Further selling momentum can lead the price towards $3,330 ahead of $3,300. On the upside, a major hurdle lies at $3,407, ahead of the all-time high at $3,500. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/05/08/gold-forecast-second-failed-attempt-to-acquire-3400/

2025-05-07 10:33

The USD/CAD forecast points to strength in the oil markets, which is boosting the loonie. China and the US will hold trade talks on Saturday. The Fed will likely keep rates on hold. The USD/CAD forecast points to strength in the oil markets due to hopes of a trade deal between China and the US. As a result, the commodity-sensitive Canadian dollar gained. However, the move was subdued as market participants looked forward to the FOMC policy meeting. -Are you looking for forex robots? Check our detailed guide- Oil prices rose Wednesday after reports that China and the US will hold talks on Saturday. The news raised hopes of an end to the trade war between the two countries. Market participants have remained cautiously hopeful for a de-escalation of this trade war. It has significantly reshaped the outlook for the global economy. Experts are forecasting weaker growth, which will impact oil demand. Canada is a major exporter of oil. Therefore, lower oil prices hurt the loonie. However, talks between China and the US have raised hopes of a better future for oil and Canada’s economy. Meanwhile, the US economy showed resilience in April, lowering expectations for a Fed rate cut in June. Employment was stronger than expected, and business activity in the services sector continued expanding. The Fed will likely keep rates on hold. However, traders are pricing the first cut in July. Trump announced a new tariff on the film industry on Sunday. If he continues his campaign, the US economy will suffer, and the Fed might be forced to cut interest rates. USD/CAD key events today Federal Funds Rate FOMC Statement FOMC Press Conference USD/CAD technical forecast: Bearish breakout shows weak momentum On the technical side, the USD/CAD price has broken below the 1.3900 support level. At the same time, it has broken out of its consolidation area between the 1.3900 support and the 1.4102 resistance. However, the breakout has been weak. The price is still clinging to the 30-SMA. -Are you looking for the best CFD broker? Check our detailed guide- Meanwhile, the RSI still shows a bullish divergence, indicating fading momentum. If bears are weak, they might not sustain a move lower for longer before bulls return. Still, USD/CAD might soon reach the 1.3800 support. However, a break above the SMA will signal a bullish sentiment shift. The trend will only change when the price starts making higher highs and lows. Otherwise, bears will regain enough momentum to continue the downtrend. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/05/07/usd-cad-forecast-loonie-lifts-amid-oil-gain-trade-deal-hope/

2025-05-07 08:27

The GBP/USD price analysis is bullish, but the pound has retreated slightly. The US and China are finally ready to meet and start trade negotiations. Market participants expect the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged. The GBP/USD price analysis is bullish, but the pound has retreated slightly from its multi-day top due to dollar strength. The greenback got support from reports that China and the US will hold talks on Saturday to determine the fate of tariffs. Meanwhile, market participants are gearing up for the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) policy meeting. -Are you looking for forex robots? Check our detailed guide- After weeks of waiting, the United States and China are finally set to meet and begin trade negotiations. The trade war between these two countries has had a significant impact on the global economy. A Reuters poll recently showed economists expect a global recession. At the same time, Trump’s tariffs have reduced demand for US assets in recent weeks. Fortunately, trade tensions have been easing. Nevertheless, Trump announced new tariffs on the film industry, keeping the cloud of uncertainty over the economy. Meanwhile, market participants expect the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged later in the day. Recent US economic data has shown a resilient economy. Therefore, there is no need for the Fed to rush rate cuts. Still, experts believe the economy will deteriorate in the coming months. As a result, market participants expect a rate cut in July. On the other hand, the Bank of England will likely cut interest rates by 25-bps on Thursday. Moreover, policymakers might be more dovish due to the dimmer outlook for the global economy. GBP/USD key events today Federal Funds Rate FOMC Statement FOMC Press Conference GBP/USD technical price analysis: Bulls to challenge the range resistance On the technical side, the GBP/USD price trades above the 30-SMA with the RSI over 50, supporting a bullish bias. However, on a larger scale, the price trades in a range between the 1.3225 support and the 1.3401 resistance level. -Are you looking for the best CFD broker? Check our detailed guide- The price initially traded in a bullish trend before it paused and started consolidating. Meanwhile, the RSI has made a series of lower highs, indicating a bearish divergence. However, bulls are in the lead within the range, meaning they might soon challenge the range resistance. A break above would confirm a continuation of the previous trend. On the other hand, if bears return, they might break below the 1.3225 support, signaling a trend reversal. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/05/07/gbp-usd-price-analysis-dollar-strength-nudges-pound-lower/