2025-06-26 09:44
The EUR/USD price turns its head to 1.2000 as the US dollar weakens. Trump’s criticism of the Fed and shifting rate cut expectations weigh on the dollar. The looming tariff deadline and dovish Fed may push the euro further up. The EUR/USD price extends its winning streak to a sixth consecutive session on Thursday, surging to the highest level since September 2021, above the 1.1700 mark. The rally was primarily driven by dollar weakness amid Trump’s criticism of the Fed Chair and his potential announcement of a replacement, as well as the de-escalation in the Middle East. According to a WSJ report, President Trump could name a new Fed Chair as soon as September or October, several months ahead of Powell’s official term ending in May 2026. Such an announcement casts Powell as a “lame duck,” weakening his authority and raising the prospects of an early rate cut. According to CommerzBank analysts, political pressure and division within the Fed may accelerate the odds of monetary policy easing, with markets now expecting another 20-basis-point rate cut by year-end. The shift in the Fed’s rate expectations has left the US dollar vulnerable. Even though the central bank has not yet pivoted toward cuts, the market narrative continues to evolve. Although the relationship between US dollar interest rate expectations is not always consistent, the persistent dovish drift from the policymakers lends enough room to the euro. Adding to the dollar’s weakness, the July 9 tariff deadline is looming with little to no progress. Trump’s unpredictable stance on trade policies continues to be a headwind for the USD. In the event of tariff imposition, the dollar may rally further, but it will pose a risk to global growth. According to ING analysts, the EUR/USD is fundamentally strong enough to test the 1.1800 level, while staying above the 1.1700 area. The probability of hitting the 1.2000 psychological mark is also high. While the Eurozone data is sparse and the ECB remains sidelined for now, the euro derives its strength from the dollar’s weakness due to political and monetary uncertainty in the US. The markets are now focusing on the US Q1 GDP data and the US Core PCE Index report. EUR/USD Price Technical Analysis: Buyers Firm for 1.2000 The 4-hour chart for the EUR/USD shows a strong bullish bias with key SMAs (20, 50, 100, and 200) lying one above another. The breakout of the previous swing high, followed by a seizure of the 1.1700 level, poses a greater upside risk, leading to a test of the 1.1800 level. The medium-term target and psychological mark of 1.2000 may be tested earlier than expected. However, the RSI lies in the extreme overbought zone, which may trigger profit-taking. The pair may pull back to the 1.1700 level ahead of the resistance that has turned into support at 1.1640. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/06/26/eur-usd-price-eyes-1-18-as-trump-targets-fed-dollar-buckles/
2025-06-26 08:15
The GBP/USD outlook is extremely bullish after the dollar loses further due to Trump’s criticism of the Fed. Iran-Israel ceasefire continues to underpin the global risk sentiment. Markets are now eyeing the Q1 GDP and Core PCE Index data from the US. The British pound extended its bullish momentum for the fourth consecutive session on Thursday, pushing the price to a fresh 41-month top near mid-1.3700. The rally stems from improving global risk sentiment and pressure on the US dollar driven by tension in Washington. The greenback is experiencing a broader sell-off after President Trump renewed his criticism of the Federal Reserve’s independence. Trump labeled Fed Chair Powell as “terrible” after his testimony before Congress, where he reiterated the data dependence and showed no urgency to lower the rates. The US President also hinted at replacing Powell as soon as this summer. The Dollar Index plunged below 97.50 as markets interpreted Trump’s threat as a political intervention with the central bank. While the US side faces central bank politics and mixed economic data, the British pound shows resilience. Domestic concerns about a cooling labor market and softer inflation hopes are striking at the pound’s strength. A British Chamber of Commerce survey revealed that around one-third of SMEs plan to cut jobs due to rising National Insurance costs. BoE Governor Bailey also pointed out the softening of the labor market during his testimony earlier this week. Nevertheless, the markets remain primarily focused on US dynamics and broader risk sentiment. The ceasefire between Iran and Israel has lifted the risk appetite and shifted capital flows off the US dollar. Traders are now eyeing today’s US Q1 GDP and Friday’s US Core PCE Index report. Softer-than-expected data may increase the odds of a September rate cut, which will further weaken the US dollar. GBP/USD Technical Outlook: Bulls Aim for 1.4000 The 4-hour chart of the GBP/USD reveals a strong bullish trend as the price lies well above the key SMAs. The pair broke the resistance at 1.3635 with a strong push towards 1.3750. The price is building the case to test the 1.4000 psychological mark. On the other hand, the pair may experience profit-taking as it has overextended, and the RSI indicates an extreme overbought condition near the 80.0 level. The pair may test the resistance-turned-support at 1.3635 before resuming the uptrend. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/06/26/gbp-usd-outlook-testing-41-month-top-amid-risk-on-flows/
2025-06-25 13:45
The EUR/USD forecast is strongly bullish despite a mild pullback from YTD highs. A weaker dollar amid dovish Fed expectations keeps the Euro bullish. Markets are eyeing US Q1 GDP and US Core PCE Index data for further impetus. The EUR/USD price is trading slightly lower on Wednesday during the early New York session, after posting a two-day rally to fresh YTD highs. Despite the pullback, the pair remains close to the highest level since November 2021, supported by global risk sentiment, weaker oil prices, and the US dollar. The ceasefire between Iran and Israel, announced by President Trump, sparked broader optimism across financial markets. As a result, the safe-haven demand for the dollar lost traction. Although both sides are at peace, the stability is still too fragile. Both sides can resume hostilities if provoked. However, the markets have so far welcomed the de-escalation, favoring riskier assets, such as the Euro. The subdued dollar boosts the Euro. The Dollar Index remains depressed around mid-97.00, close to a three-year low, as it is pressured by dovish Fed expectations. Although the Fed Chair Jerome Powell maintained a cautious stance in his testimony before Congress on Tuesday, the markets are still expecting a 50 bps cut by the end of 2025. On the European side, macroeconomic data is steady but not strong enough to drive markets. French Consumer Confidence remained unchanged at 88.0, while Spain’s Q1 GDP confirmed a growth of 0.6% q/q and 2.8% y/y. The US Consumer Confidence Index fell from 98.4 to 93.0, revealing concerns for jobs and economic growth. As markets digest Powell’s second round of testimony today, the upcoming US data, including Q1 GDP and the Core PCE Index, are key to watch. EUR/USD Technical Forecast: Buyers Aiming for 1.1700 The EUR/USD 4-hour chart displays a consolidating pattern near the multi-month high. The uptrend is intact as the price stays well above the 20-period SMA. Moreover, the bullish crossover of the 20-SMA and 50-SMA also presents room for upside. The RSI is also off the overbought zone but above 50.0 and sloping upwards. Overall, the pair is now trading within a broad range of 1.1450 to 1.1650. The price is expected to remain within these two levels unless a catalyst emerges to push it further higher towards the 1.1700 mark. The path of least resistance lies on the upside. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/06/25/eur-usd-forecast-mild-pullback-to-1-16-after-ceasefire-rally/
2025-06-25 09:38
The gold forecast remains broadly bullish with a few corrective jitters due to the ceasefire. The Fed Chair’s wait-and-watch policy weighs on gold’s uptrend. Market participants are eyeing key US data and the second round of Powell’s testimony. Gold prices are consolidating above the $3,300 mark after retreating to a 2-week low earlier this week. Although the Israel-Iran ceasefire has alleviated some geopolitical concerns, the durability of the peace remains uncertain. Moreover, shifting odds for US monetary policy continue to keep market participants on their toes. The initial optimism after President Trump’s announcement of a “complete and total ceasefire” prompted risk-on flows and pressured safe-haven assets, including gold. However, conflicting developments and missile launches from both sides have cast doubts on the stability of the ceasefire. The geopolitical risk premium may keep the yellow metal supported despite softening demand for safe-haven assets. On the other hand, the US dollar attempted a significant recovery on the back of Fed Chair Powell’s hawkish remarks. In his testimony to Congress, Powell warned that tariffs may reignite inflation, and the Fed is not in a hurry to cut the rates. Despite this, the markets retain their dovish expectations, with futures pricing a 50-bps cut by the end of 2025 and a 20% chance of a move as early as July. Gold has been sensitive to these shifting expectations of monetary policy. Lower interest rates increase the demand for non-yielding assets, such as gold, due to a lower opportunity cost of holding. Now, traders await the second round of Powell’s testimony and critical U.S. economic data, including Q1 GDP and the Core PCE Index. Gold’s next meaningful move depends on these factors. Gold Technical Forecast: Mild Bearish Pressure Near 200-SMA The gold price found decent support under the $3,300 level and bounced back. The price managed to move beyond the 200-period SMA on the 4-hour chart. However, it still lies well below the 20-period and 50-period SMAs. The selling pressure has not yet been elevated. A move below the $3,300 support may drive the price towards the next support zone at $3,250. The RSI level under 50.0 also supports a mildly bearish view. Alternatively, a sustained move above $3,350 may prompt an intense bullish action, leading to $3,400, followed by $3,450, and ultimately the all-time highs around $3,500. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/06/25/gold-forecast-stable-above-3300-after-ceasefire-fed-signals/
2025-06-24 11:17
The AUD/USD outlook is bullish as the pair quickly recovered after a ceasefire. The US dollar and crude oil lost all the gains accumulated after Middle East escalation. Market participants expect Fed’s easing to begin as soon as July. The AUD/USD price rebounded sharply, staging recovery from the losses posted on Monday due to escalated tension in the Middle East. The announcement of a ceasefire weighed on the US dollar that picked strength after America’s attack on Iran’s three nuclear sites. The AUD/USD pair quickly reversed the course as the fear of escalation subsided. The initial reaction of the markets with risk-off tone was favorable for US dollar and crude oil. However, the confirmation that Iran’s attacks on US bases in Qatar and Kuwait didn’t cause any casualties, helped stabilize the markets. As a s result, the risk-sensitive Aussie regained traction as the broader risk sentiment turned positive. The pair reclaimed the 0.6500 level, soaring more than 2% from Monday lows and became the best performing currency. The rally was further boosted by President Trump’s announcement of “complete ceasefire” agreement Iran and Israel. The de-escalation immediately weighed on oil prices and safe-haven assets including US dollar and gold that gave room to a higher yielding currencies like Aussie. The weekend PMI data of Australia could not leave any impact on the markets, traders have now turned their focus to US monetary policy. Fed officials like Bowman and William indicated that the Fed may cut the rates as early as July. However, the CME FedWatch tool shows a probability of 22% for the July rate cut while it is 77% for September. These developments have weighed further on the greenback. Investors are now focusing on Fed Chair Powell’s testimony before Congress as markets are eager to find the clues about Fed’s easing policy. AUD/USD Technical Outlook: Trendline Resistance Pausing Rally The AUD/USd 4-hour chart shows a solid recovery from the support zone under 0.6400. Five conseucitve bullish candles on the chart reveal a strong uptrend as the price soared above the key moving averages. Moreover, the RSI also rose to 60.0, which means a room for further gains. However, the price found mild resistance at the trendline. The pair may consolidate around 0.6500 before continuing higher. The next targets for the bulls reside at 0.6550 ahead of 0.6600. On the flip side, 0.6440 and 0.6380 will be the key support to watch. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/06/24/aud-usd-outlook-ceasefire-dovish-fed-to-boost-aussie/
2025-06-24 09:28
The EUR/USD outlook turns bullish as the sentiment shifts after ceasefire. Falling crude oil prices may provide more support to the EU economy. Markets now await Fed Chair’s testimony before Congress for further policy clues. The EUR/USD pair staged an impressive comeback, gaining 1.3% from Monday lows to trade near 1.1600 level on Tuesday. The price has marked fresh three-month top. The rally was triggered by a shift in risk sentiment as US President Trump announced a ceasefire between Iran and Israel after around two weeks of conflict. Markets welcomed the de-escalation despite the reports of a missile fired from Iran earlier on Tuesday. The US dollar and crude oil experienced a sell-off. The Dollar Index dropped to 98.00 level while WTI fell more than 3% to fall to $66.00 area. This oil price decline is favorable for the Eurozone, a net oil importer, as it may help easing inflationary pressure further. Adding more to the Euro’s bullish momentum, the German IFO Business Climate report showed a mild improved across all indices in June. The Expectations Index surged to 90.7 from previous 88.9, which shows a sign of economic stability in the Eurozone’s economy. However, the rally may exhaust as it’s already overextended, starting from first week of March. The UOB analysts predict the price to stay within a familiar range of 1.1480 to 1.1660, alerting that strong overbought conditions may limit further gains unless Fed offers a dovish surprise. All eyes are now on Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony before Congress. The recent comments from Fed officials like Waller and Bowman suggest that a rate cut may come as early as July, turning markets cautious. According to CME FedWatch tool data, the probability of a rate cut in July is only 20%. It leaves room for repositioning if Powell hints further dovish policy. EUR/USD Technical Outlook: Consolidating Near highs The EUR/USD 4-hour chart shows a consolidation near 1.1600 level. The buyers may exhaust as the RSI shows nearly overbought conditions. The price moved well above the key moving averages yesterday. Staying above the SMA conjunction area around 1.1500 may keep the bullish momentum intact. The pair may head to 1.1632, which is the yearly high ahead of 1.1700 (round number). On the flip side, 1.1550 provides immediate support ahead of 1.1500 area. The price may range here before a breakout. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/06/24/eur-usd-outlook-soaring-to-1-16-after-ceasefire-eyes-on-powell/
