2024-10-18 11:20

UK sales rose by 0.3% in September. US retail sales jumped by 0.4% in September. Traders are paying close attention to the upcoming US presidential election. The GBP/USD price analysis suggests a shift in sentiment as the pound recovers after a better-than-expected retail sales report. At the same time, the dollar remained steady after retail sales data in the previous session beat estimates. –Are you interested to learn more about ECN brokers? Check our detailed guide- Sterling rebounded from recent lows after data showed that UK sales rose by 0.3% in September. Meanwhile, economists had expected a 0.3% decline in sales. A robust economy eases pressure on the Bank of England to lower borrowing costs. Nevertheless, market participants still expect a rate cut in November and December. Meanwhile, the pair fell in the previous session after the US released another upbeat economic report. Retail sales jumped by 0.4% in September, beating forecasts of a 0.3% increase. At the same time, core sales increased by 0.5%, above forecasts of 0.1%. The US economy has shown resilience despite high interest rates. Consequently, Fed policymakers have become more cautious in their remarks. At the same time, markets have started pricing the likelihood of a Fed pause at the November meeting. Elsewhere, traders are paying close attention to the upcoming US presidential election. The dollar has risen recently due to increasing bets for a Trump win. Such an outcome would likely mean increased tariffs and other changes driving inflation. Higher inflation would challenge the Fed’s current easing cycle and likely lead to a pause. GBP/USD key events today Traders will keep digesting the robust UK retail sales report as no more events are scheduled for today. GBP/USD technical price analysis: Rebound pauses at solid resistance zone On the technical side, the GBP/USD price is on the brink of breaking above the 30-SMA resistance. The pair rebounded after making a bullish engulfing candlestick pattern at the recent swing low. This price action was a sign that bullish momentum was surging. Furthermore, it came after a bullish RSI divergence, which showed weaker bearish momentum. –Are you interested to learn more about making money in forex? Check our detailed guide- Nevertheless, bulls now face a strong barrier comprising the 30-SMA and the 1.3051 resistance level. Meanwhile, the RSI has broken above 50 and trades in bullish territory. A break above the resistance zone would allow GBP/USD to revisit the 1.3201 resistance. Otherwise, the downtrend will reach 1.2950. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/10/18/gbp-usd-price-analysis-upbeat-uk-sales-spark-sentiment-shift/

2024-10-18 10:17

The ECB cut interest rates by 25-bps on Thursday after a similar move during the September meeting. The Eurozone economy has performed poorly compared to the US. Data revealed that US retail sales jumped by 0.4% in September. The EUR/USD outlook shows increased downward pressure as European Central Bank rate cut bets surge after Thursday’s meeting. Meanwhile, the dollar held near an 11-week high against the euro amid rising bets for a Trump win and upbeat US data. –Are you interested to learn more about ECN brokers? Check our detailed guide- The ECB cut interest rates by 25-bps on Thursday after a similar move during the September meeting. Although markets had fully priced the move, the outcome led to a surge in bets for future rate cuts. As a result, the euro collapsed. The Eurozone economy has performed poorly compared to the US, putting pressure on the ECB to lower borrowing costs. At the same time, inflation in the bloc has eased to 1.8%, below the central bank’s target. Consequently, traders expect another rate cut in December and more in 2025. Meanwhile, the US dollar rallied after an upbeat retail sales report. Data revealed that sales jumped by 0.4% in September, beating estimates of 0.3%. At the same time, core retail sales rose by 0.5% compared to forecasts of 0.1%. The upbeat figures indicated robust consumer spending and a healthy economy. Moreover, it eased bets for a November Fed rate cut while increasing the likelihood of a pause. Meanwhile, market participants are pricing a possible Trump win during next month’s presidential election. The last time he won, the dollar rallied as traders priced in higher inflation. Therefore, there is a chance another win will boost the greenback. EUR/USD key events today Market participants do not expect key events today, so the pair might end the week quietly. EUR/USD technical outlook: Renewed bearish momentum On the technical side, the EUR/USD price is wallowing near the 1.0801 support level after reaching a new low in the downtrend. The price sits below the 30-SMA, with the RSI near the oversold region. –Are you interested to learn more about making money in forex? Check our detailed guide- Initially, the RSI had made a bullish divergence, which failed to play out. This shows that bears regained momentum. If they keep up the pace, the pair will soon challenge the 1.0801 support level. However, it might revisit the SMA before seeking new lows. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/10/18/eur-usd-outlook-ecbs-cut-expectations-in-dec-mount/

2024-10-17 09:16

Australia’s economy added 64,100 jobs in September, well above the forecast of 25,000. The Aussie pulled back as China’s stimulus disappointed. The US dollar remained solid as investors priced a likely Trump win in November. The AUD/USD outlook shows a brief surge due to an upbeat employment report from Australia. However, prices pulled back amid disappointment in China’s economic stimulus. Meanwhile, the dollar got new life as market participants priced the probability of a Trump win. –Are you interested to learn more about ECN brokers? Check our detailed guide- Data on Thursday revealed that Australia’s economy added 64,100 jobs in September, well above the forecast of 25,000. At the same time, the unemployment rate held steady at 4.1% compared to estimates of 4.2%. The robust labor market numbers pushed back the timing for the first RBA rate cut, boosting the Aussie. However, the rally was short-lived as traders absorbed a disappointing announcement by China. The country’s top officials have pledged to support the fragile housing market. However, they failed to announce any new stimulus to boost the sector. As a result, markets were disappointed, with the Aussie dropping along with the Yuan. Elsewhere, the US dollar remained solid as investors priced a likely Trump win in November. The upcoming election outcome could change fiscal policy, impacting monetary policy. Notably, Trump’s policies will likely increase inflation, leading to a pause in Fed rate cuts. The dollar has had a bullish run due to upbeat US data. The economy has shown resilience, and inflation beat forecasts in September. As a result, policymakers have taken a cautious stance. Market participants are gearing up for the retail sales report for more ideas on Fed rate cuts. AUD/USD key events today US core retail sales m/m US retail sales m/m US unemployment claims AUD/USD technical outlook: Price action signals looming reversal On the technical side, the AUD/USD price trades below the 30-SMA, indicating a bearish trend. At the same time, the RSI supports bearish momentum below the pivotal 50 line. However, when the price broke below the 0.6700 support, momentum faded. The RSI made a bullish divergence, signaling a looming reversal. –Are you interested to learn more about making money in forex? Check our detailed guide- Furthermore, price action showed a doji and a bullish engulfing candle. The patterns show indecision followed by a surge in bullish momentum. However, bulls must break above the 0.6700 resistance and the 30-SMA to confirm a reversal. Otherwise, bears might breach the 0.6650 level. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/10/17/aud-usd-outlook-upbeat-australian-jobs-briefly-lifts-aussie/

2024-10-17 07:58

Market participants expect the ECB to cut interest rates. The dollar rose due to increasing bets for a Trump win. Traders await the US retail sales report for more clues on future Fed moves. The EUR/USD forecast points South as the euro comes under pressure ahead of an expected European Central Bank rate cut. Meanwhile, the greenback was on the front foot due to the increasing likelihood of a Trump win. –Are you interested to learn more about ECN brokers? Check our detailed guide- The ECB will meet on Thursday, and market participants expect the central bank to cut interest rates. The Eurozone economy has slowed, and inflation has fallen below the 2% target. Moreover, policymakers are currently more focused on preserving growth. Christine Lagarde recently hinted at the likelihood of a rate cut at the next policy meeting. Lower borrowing costs weigh on the euro, especially when Fed policymakers are getting more cautious. Notably, the dollar has recovered due to a resilient economy and higher-than-expected inflation figures. The upbeat economic figures have resulted in cautious remarks, with some policymakers expecting only one rate cut before the year ends. Meanwhile, market participants are also pricing a likely Trump win, supporting the dollar. If Trump wins, his fiscal policy measures might result in high inflation, challenging the Fed’s mandate. Meanwhile, traders await the US retail sales report for more clues on future Fed moves. Economists expect a 0.3% jump in sales. A higher-than-expected jump would lower the chances of a November Fed rate cut. Furthermore, it would continue the trend of robust economic demand. On the other hand, soft sales would signal weaker consumer spending, raising rate cut expectations. EUR/USD key events today Eurozone’s main refinancing rate Eurozone monetary policy statement US core retail sales m/m US retail sales m/m US unemployment claims EUR/USD technical forecast: Downtrend persists, but momentum fades On the technical side, the EUR/USD price has made new lows after breaking below the 1.0900 support level. Furthermore, the price has fallen far below the 30-SMA, showing bears in the lead. However, the RSI is climbing as the price drops to new lows, indicating a bullish divergence. –Are you interested to learn more about making money in forex? Check our detailed guide- Consequently, Bearish momentum is fading and could allow bulls to resurface. A rebound would challenge the 30-SMA and the 1.0900 level. A break above would signal a reversal, allowing bulls to target the 1.1000 resistance level. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/10/17/eur-usd-forecast-euro-slips-in-anticipation-of-ecb-rate-cut/

2024-10-16 08:42

UK inflation dropped sharply from 2.2% to 1.7% in September. Services inflation, a key measure for the BoE, plunged from 5.6% to 4.9%. Fed’s Raphael Bostic said he expects one more rate cut this year. The GBP/USD forecast indicates a sudden drop after UK inflation figures missed forecasts. The unexpected decline in price pressure has increased bets for a BoE rate cut. Meanwhile, dollar strength continued as Fed policymakers shifted to a cautious tone. –Are you interested to learn more about ECN brokers? Check our detailed guide- Data on Wednesday showed that UK inflation dropped sharply from 2.2% to 1.7% in September. Meanwhile, analysts were expecting it to increase by 1.9%. The softer figures put more pressure on the Bank of England to lower borrowing costs. Furthermore, services inflation, a key measure for the central bank, plunged from 5.6% to 4.9%. After the report, market participants were pricing a 90% chance of two 25-bps rate cuts this year. Consequently, sterling fell sharply against the dollar. Inflation is now below the central bank’s target. Therefore, there is a risk it will keep sliding to unhealthy levels, forcing the BoE to lower borrowing costs quickly. Meanwhile, Fed policymakers have become cautious recently after data showed a resilient economy and unexpectedly high inflation. Mary Daly noted that future rate cuts will depend on incoming data. Meanwhile, Raphael Bostic said he expects one more rate cut this year. Traders are now watching the upcoming retail sales report for more clues. A bigger-than-expected jump in sales will likely increase the cautious Fed tone. On the other hand, soft figures will raise bets for a November rate cut. GBP/USD key events today Market participants will keep digesting the UK CPI news as there won’t be more high-impact reports. GBP/USD technical forecast: Bears break 1.3000 level On the technical side, the GBP/USD price has collapsed below the 1.3051 support level, strengthening the bearish bias. The move comes after a false bullish break above the 30-SMA. Initially, GBP/USD consolidated between the SMA and the 1.3051 support level. –Are you interested to learn more about making money in forex? Check our detailed guide- The price now trades far below the SMA, with the RSI nearing the oversold region. It has made a lower low, confirming a continuation of the previous downtrend. Given the solid bearish bias, the price might soon revisit the 1.2950 level. Here, it might pause as the SMA catches up before making new lows. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/10/16/gbp-usd-forecast-pound-sinks-amid-downbeat-uk-inflation/

2024-10-16 07:31

Canada’s annual inflation eased more than expected to 1.6% in September. Market participants raised the likelihood of a 50-bps rate cut from 50% to 74%. Traders are awaiting the US retail sales report for more insight into the economy’s health. The USD/CAD price analysis shows a slight retreat, with fundamentals supporting further upside. The Canadian dollar traded near a 10-week low after inflation numbers were lower than expected. Meanwhile, the greenback remained firm, with higher expectations for a small Fed rate cut in November. –Are you interested to learn more about ECN brokers? Check our detailed guide- Canada’s annual inflation eased more than expected to 1.6% in September, raising the likelihood of a massive October Bank of Canada rate cut. Canada’s central bank recently shifted its focus to preserving growth. At the same time, policymakers are worried inflation might fall too much. Therefore, there is a lot of pressure to lower borrowing costs. After the CPI report, market participants raised the likelihood of a 50-bps rate cut from 50% to 74%. The loonie has fallen sharply in the past few weeks due to a strong dollar and a drop in oil prices. Oil fell sharply on Tuesday after reports that Israel might not hit Iranian oil. Previously, oil had risen due to an escalation in the Middle East war. However, tensions have cooled, removing the premium on oil. Meanwhile, the dollar held steady as market participants adjusted to the new outlook for Fed rate cuts. Notably, policymakers have assumed a more cautious tone, with some expecting only one more rate cut this year. Traders are awaiting the US retail sales report for more insight into the economy’s health. Moreover, the report will impact rate cut expectations. USD/CAD key events today Market participants do not expect high-impact data from the US or Canada today. Therefore, they will keep digesting the new outlook for BoC rate cuts. USD/CAD technical price analysis: Bears trigger after RSI divergence On the technical side, the USD/CAD price has retreated after finding resistance at the 1.3825 level. The pullback comes after a steep bullish rally that showed fading momentum when the RSI made a bearish divergence. However, the bullish bias remains intact since the price trades above the SMA with the RSI above 50. –Are you interested to learn more about making money in forex? Check our detailed guide- Therefore, it might find support at the SMA before bouncing higher. A break above 1.3825 would confirm a continuation of the bullish trend. However, if bulls fail to make a higher high, bears might take charge with a break below the SMA. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/10/16/usd-cad-price-analysis-cpi-led-rally-fades-below-1-3800/