2025-05-15 09:57
The USD/JPY outlook shows a rebound in the yen. Japan’s wholesale inflation rose by 4.0% in April. Traders are looking forward to US data on sales. The USD/JPY outlook shows a stronger yen due to a growing divergence in policy outlooks between the Fed and the Bank of Japan. Inflation in the US continues dropping while that in Japan continues rising. –Are you interested to learn more about MT5 brokers? Check our detailed guide- The yen extended its rally on Thursday after data in the previous session revealed higher producer inflation in Japan. Wholesale inflation rose by 4.0% in April, increasing pressure on the Bank of Japan to keep hiking interest rates. Moreover, recent wage growth and inflation figures from the country have shown an uptrend and a conducive environment for higher borrowing costs. As a result, rate hike expectations are gradually rising, supporting the yen. On the other hand, the US is witnessing softer inflation. Data on Tuesday revealed that inflation increased by 2.3%, below estimates of a 2.4% increase. The numbers weighed on the dollar and increased bets for a Fed rate cut in September. Rate cuts in the US and hikes in Japan will continue to shrink the gap in rates between the two countries. This will boost the yen. Meanwhile, traders are looking forward to US data on sales, wholesale inflation, and unemployment claims. Moreover, a speech from Powell might shape the outlook for rate cuts. USD/JPY key events today US core PPI m/m US PPI m/m US retail sales m/m US core retail sales m/m US unemployment claims Fed Chair Powell Speaks USD/JPY technical outlook: 30-SMA break signals bearish sentiment shift On the technical side, the USD/JPY price has broken below the 30-SMA and the 146.02 key level. The price now sits below the SMA with the RSI under 50, suggesting a bearish bias. Bulls were in the lead until the price reached the 148.51 resistance level. Here, bears resurfaced and were strong enough to take charge by pushing the price below the SMA. –Are you interested to learn more about Thailand forex brokers? Check our detailed guide- Although sentiment has shifted, the shallow uptrend remains intact. The price is still in a higher high, higher low pattern. To confirm a new downtrend, the price would have to break below its support trendline. Furthermore, it would have to make a new low below the 142.55 level. Otherwise, it might only retest the trendline before climbing to make a new high above the 148.51 resistance level. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/05/15/usd-jpy-outlook-yen-strengthens-as-fed-boj-outlooks-diverge/
2025-05-15 08:55
The AUD/USD forecast points south despite upbeat employment data from Australia. Employment in Australia rose by 89,000, beating estimates of a 20,900 increase. Traders maintained bets of an RBA rate cut next week. The AUD/USD forecast points south despite upbeat employment data from Australia. The Aussie jumped briefly before pulling back as market participants maintained bets for an RBA rate cut next week. At the same time, the dollar regained its shine amid easing global trade tensions. –Are you interested to learn more about MT5 brokers? Check our detailed guide- Data on Thursday revealed that employment in Australia rose by 89,000, beating estimates of a 20,900 increase. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate held steady at 4.1%. The upbeat report followed figures in the previous session showing solid wage growth in Q1. As a result, the Aussie gained. However, the gains were brief as traders maintained bets of an RBA rate cut next week. Despite the strong labor market, policymakers are also watching the softer inflation and weaker global growth outlook. Still, traders have dialed back expected cuts from 100-bps to 75-bps this year. Furthermore, AUD/USD collapsed as the dollar regained on Wednesday on lingering trade optimism. China and the US agreed on a temporary deal that allowed tariffs to drop sharply. It put a pause on their trade war and eased recession worries. At the same time, market participants expect more trade deals with countries like India and Japan. AUD/USD key events today US core PPI m/m US PPI m/m US core Retail Sales m/m US retail sales m/m US unemployment claims Fed Chair Powell speaks AUD/USD technical forecast: Bears take charge, confirming consolidation On the technical side, the AUD/USD price has pulled back to the 30-SMA after failing to break above the 0.6500 key psychological level. Bears are currently challenging the SMA support. Meanwhile, the RSI has dropped below 50, indicating stronger bearish momentum. –Are you interested to learn more about Thailand forex brokers? Check our detailed guide- However, the price has confirmed it is currently consolidating between the 0.6351 support and the 0.6500 key resistance. At the same time, the price is chopping through the 30-SMA with no clear direction. Neither bears nor bulls are willing to push the price far above the SMA and start a trend. Therefore, even if the price breaks below the 30-SMA, it might pause again at the range support level. AUD/USD will only start trending when it breaks out of this consolidation area. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/05/15/aud-usd-forecast-aussie-drifts-south-despite-strong-jobs/
2025-05-14 09:43
The GBP/USD forecast suggests a hawkish stance from BoE’s Mann. BoE’s Mann noted that household inflation expectations had gone up. Inflation in the US increased by a smaller-than-expected 0.2% in April. The GBP/USD forecast suggests a hawkish stance from BoE’s Mann, who believes the labor market is more resilient than expected. As a result, rate cut expectations have eased, supporting the pound. At the same time, the dollar was fragile after poor inflation figures from the previous session. –Are you interested to learn more about MT5 brokers? Check our detailed guide- Catherine Mann said on Wednesday that the UK labor market was more resilient than she expected. This was one of the reasons she voted to keep rates on hold at last week’s meeting. Furthermore, she noted that household inflation expectations had gone up. Therefore, the central bank should proceed with caution. Mann and Huw Pill were the two policymakers who surprised markets by voting to hold rates. Elsewhere, data on Tuesday revealed that inflation in the US increased by 0.2% in April. Meanwhile, economists had expected a 0.3% increase. At the same time, the annual figure increased by 2.3%, compared to forecasts of 2.4%. The poor figures increased pressure on the Fed to lower borrowing costs. Nevertheless, there is still a chance that inflation will rebound after Trump’s tariffs. Therefore, policymakers might remain cautious. Still, the outlook for the economy has improved since China and the US agreed to slash tariffs. GBP/USD key events today Traders are not expecting high-impact releases from the UK or the US. Therefore, they will keep digesting the US CPI report. GBP/USD technical forecast: Bulls return after false breakout On the technical side, the GBP/USD price is back in its consolidation area after a failed breakout. The price currently trades above the 30-SMA with the RSI heading for the overbought region. Therefore, bulls are in the lead and might soon retest the range resistance level. –Are you interested to learn more about Thailand forex brokers? Check our detailed guide- Before the consolidation, GBP/USD was trading in an uptrend. Therefore, the price stayed above the 30-SMA. However, this changed at the 1.3401 resistance. The price started chopping through the SMA with no clear direction. Moreover, it mostly remained between the 1.3050 support and the 1.3401 resistance levels. Recently, bears triggered a breakout. However, they were unable to sustain a move lower. As a result, bulls are back in the lead and will likely challenge the range resistance. A break above would resume the previous uptrend. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/05/14/gbp-usd-forecast-pound-gains-on-manns-hawkish-comment/
2025-05-14 08:36
The AUD/USD price analysis indicates solid wage growth in Australia. Market participants are still pricing an RBA rate cut in May. The US CPI increased by 0.2% in April, compared to forecasts of 0.3%. The AUD/USD price analysis indicates solid wage growth in Australia that is propelling the Australian dollar higher. At the same time, the US dollar remains fragile after collapsing in the previous session due to downbeat inflation data. –Are you interested to learn more about MT5 brokers? Check our detailed guide- The Aussie rose on Wednesday after data revealed that Australia’s wage price index increased by 0.9% in Q1. This figure was bigger than the forecast of 0.8% and reflected strength in the labor market. More employment data will come on Thursday. However, market participants are still pricing an RBA rate cut in May. Cooling inflation and global growth worries have solidified bets for a cut. Meanwhile, the dollar remained weak after inflation figures on Tuesday missed forecasts. According to data, the US CPI increased by 0.2% in April, compared to forecasts of a 0.3% increase. Meanwhile, the annual figure increased by 2.3%, below estimates of a 2.4% increase. The downbeat figures increased pressure on the Fed to lower borrowing costs. However, policymakers might remain cautious, waiting to see whether Trump’s tariffs boosted price pressures. Nevertheless, the outlook for the future has improved since China and the US agreed to slash tariffs. AUD/USD key events today Market participants do not expect any more key economic releases from Australia or the US. AUD/USD technical price analysis: Bulls to challenge the 0.6500 On the technical side, the AUD/USD price has broken back above the 30-SMA after failing to break below the 0.6351 key support level. Initially, the price was trading in a bullish trend above the 30-SMA. However, momentum started fading when the price reached the 0.6351 key level. Although bulls made a new high near the 0.6500 key psychological level, the price continued chopping through the SMA. –Are you interested to learn more about Thailand forex brokers? Check our detailed guide- During the most recent swing, bears failed to break below the 0.6351 support, allowing bulls to return stronger. The price now sits above the SMA with the RSI nearing the overbought region. Given the solid bullish bias, AUD/USD might soon retest the 0.6500 resistance level. A break above would strengthen the bullish bias and continue the previous uptrend. On the other hand, if the resistance holds, the price might remain in consolidation. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/05/14/aud-usd-price-analysis-aussie-rallies-on-strong-wage-data/
2025-05-13 11:53
The GBP/USD price analysis shows a surging pound. The UK claimant count increased by 5,200, well below forecasts of 22,300. China and the US announced a 90-day pause in tariffs. The GBP/USD price analysis shows a surging pound after data revealed a smaller-than-expected increase in UK unemployment claims. At the same time, sterling gained due to dollar weakness. After Monday’s rally, market participants are locking in profits ahead of pivotal US inflation figures. –Are you interested to learn more about MT5 brokers? Check our detailed guide- Data on Tuesday revealed that the UK claimant count increased by 5,200, well below forecasts of 22,300. The miss is a sign that the labor market is faring far better than expected. As a result, the pound recovered from its previous session lows. However, other elements like wage growth and employment levels showed cracks that could put pressure on the Bank of England to lower borrowing costs. The pound also gained as the dollar paused its rally. On Monday, China and the US announced a 90-day pause in tariffs. The news boosted the dollar as it briefly ended the trade war between the two countries. At the same time, it eased worries about a US and global recession. However, by Tuesday, all focus returned to US economic data. The CPI report will contain clues on future Fed rate cuts. Upbeat numbers will lower rate cut expectations. On the other hand, downbeat figures might pressure the central bank to lower borrowing costs. GBP/USD key events today US core CPI m/m US CPI m/m US CPI y/y GBP/USD technical price analysis: Bulls aim to retest the 1.3251 key level On the technical side, the GBP/USD price has made a bearish breakout, ending a period of consolidation. The price now sits below the 30-SMA, with the RSI below 50, suggesting a bearish bias. However, after the breakout, bulls have returned to retest the recently broken range support. –Are you interested to learn more about Thailand forex brokers? Check our detailed guide- Initially, the price maintained a sideways move between the 1.3251 support and the 1.3401 resistance levels. While this happened, the RSI made a bearish divergence, showing bulls were getting weaker each time they retested the range resistance. As a result, bears became strong enough to breach the range support. If the 1.3251 level holds firm as support, the price will likely fall to the 1.3050 level, strengthening the bearish bias. Otherwise, it will return to the consolidation area. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/05/13/gbp-usd-price-analysis-upbeat-uk-jobs-boost-pound/
2025-05-13 09:09
The AUD/USD outlook shows optimism in Australia after China and the US paused their trade war. Market participants slashed bets for Fed rate cuts this year. The US will release its crucial inflation figures. The AUD/USD outlook shows optimism for the Australian dollar after China and the US agreed to pause the trade war. As a result, the Aussie, also a proxy of the yuan, gained. In the previous session, the dollar had strengthened more than the yuan, pushing the Australian dollar lower. –Are you interested to learn more about MT5 brokers? Check our detailed guide- On Monday, reports revealed that China and the US had agreed to slash tariffs for the next 90 days, pausing their trade war. The news brought relief to traders who were worried about a US recession. Consequently, the dollar gained against most of its peers, including the Australian dollar. Still, gains were limited against the Aussie since China is Australia’s biggest trading partner. Therefore, the news that tariffs had paused was bullish for Australia’s currency as well as the yuan. Furthermore, market participants slashed bets for Fed rate cuts this year. Futures currently show only 56-bps of cuts this year. There is less pressure on policymakers to lower borrowing costs. Therefore, they will keep watching incoming data for clues on the timing for the next move. Later in the day, the US will release its crucial inflation figures. A downbeat report will ease worries of a spike due to tariffs, allowing the Fed to implement a rate cut when the time is right. AUD/USD key events today US core CPI m/m US CPI m/m US CPI y/y AUD/USD technical outlook: Bulls trigger rebound to the 30-SMA On the technical side, the AUD/USD price trades below the 30-SMA with the RSI under 50, suggesting a bearish bias. Bears recently took charge when the price failed to break above the 0.6500 key psychological level. The RSI made a bearish divergence, indicating weakness in the previous move. –Are you interested to learn more about Thailand forex brokers? Check our detailed guide- After that, the price broke below the 30-SMA and retested the 0.6351 level. Here, it paused and rose to retest the 30-SMA resistance. However, given the bearish bias, AUD/USD might soon drop to retest the 0.6351 support. A break below this level will strengthen the bearish bias by making a lower low. On the other hand, if the price breaks above the SMA, it might retest the 0.6500 key resistance level before either breaking above or remaining in consolidation. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/05/13/aud-usd-outlook-aussie-gains-on-pause-in-china-us-trade-war/
