2023-12-05 09:56
XAU/USD remains bearish if it stays below the 50% retracement level. The 61.8% and the median line represent key support levels. The US data could have a big impact today. The gold price registered a 6% drop from the freshly marked all-time highs in the last trading session. The precious metal is trading at $2,033 at the time of writing and is fighting hard to rebound. –Are you interested to learn more about forex options trading? Check our detailed guide- The downside pressure remains high as the US dollar could resume its leg higher. Fundamentally, the XAU/USD turned to the upside in the short term also because the US Factory Orders reported a 3.6% drop versus 2.7% drop estimated. Today, the Reserve Bank of Australia left the Cash Rate unchanged at 4.35% as expected. Later, the US is to release high-impact data. The ISM Services PMI is expected to jump from 51.8 points to 52.2 points, while JOLTS Job Openings may drop to 9.31M from 9.55M. In addition, the Final Services PMI and RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism data will also be released. Positive economic figures could boost the greenback, so the XAU/USD could hit new lows. The BOC is expected to keep the Overnight Rate at 5.00% tomorrow. In addition, the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change and the Australian GDP could shake the markets. As you can see on the hourly chart, the price registered a false breakout with a sharp decline through the weekly R2 of 2,124 signaling exhausted buyers. -If you are interested in knowing about scalping forex brokers, then read our guidelines to get started- It has invalidated the breakout above the warning line (wl1) with a massive drop. The sell-off was paused by the weekly S1 of 2,023. The price came back to retest the 50% (2,040) retracement level but as long as it stays below it, the bias remains bearish. From the technical point of view, the 61.8% (2,014) and the median line (ml) of the ascending pitchfork represent key and critical downside obstacles. Testing these levels and registering false breakdowns may announce a new leg higher. On the contrary, taking out these support levels activates more declines. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2023/12/05/gold-price-struggling-to-recover-after-6-dip-from-all-time-high/
2023-12-05 08:52
Core inflation in Tokyo decelerated in November. Market participants anticipate the gradual phasing out of the BOJ’s extensive stimulus. The BOJ will watch next year’s annual wage negotiations and the outlook for service prices. Despite a dip in Tokyo’s inflation, the yen flexed its muscle against the dollar on Tuesday, signaling a persistently bearish USD/JPY outlook. Moreover, the pair stayed close to the three-month low of 146.235 yen recorded in the previous session. –Are you interested to learn more about forex options trading? Check our detailed guide- In November, core inflation in Tokyo decelerated, supporting the central bank’s belief that cost-push pressures in the world’s third-largest economy will gradually diminish. Meanwhile, service prices, closely monitored by the central bank for signs of wage-driven inflation, experienced their quickest rise since 1994. Analysts attribute this surge to a spike in hotel fees amid a surge in tourist numbers. Still, inflation has surpassed the Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) 2% target for over a year. Consequently, many market participants anticipate gradually phasing out of the bank’s extensive stimulus in the coming year. Furthermore, BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda has emphasized maintaining an ultra-loose policy. The BOJ is waiting for demand-driven price increases to replace recent cost-push inflation. Additionally, Ueda believes that next year’s annual wage negotiations and the outlook for service prices, reflecting labor costs, will play an essential role in determining when the BOJ can exit its ultra-easy policy. The BOJ, in contrast to its global counterparts, remains a dovish outlier, persisting with an ultra-loose policy. At the same time, other major central banks have aggressively raised interest rates to ease widespread inflation. USD/JPY key events today The US ISM services PMI The US JOLTs job openings report USD/JPY technical outlook: Growing signs hint at bulls taking the lead On the technical side, the USD/JPY downtrend has paused at the 146.50 support level. Still, the bearish bias remains strong as the price has yet to break above the 30-SMA. Moreover, the RSI is still in bearish territory below 50. -If you are interested in knowing about scalping forex brokers, then read our guidelines to get started- However, there are growing signs that bulls might soon take charge. First, the RSI has made a bullish divergence with the price, indicating weakness in bearish momentum. Second, the price has extended to the key 1.27 fib level, a strong support. Finally, bulls have shown strength with a large-bodied candle after the 146.50 support level. Nevertheless, the bearish trend will continue if the price fails to exceed the 30-SMA. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2023/12/05/usd-jpy-outlook-yen-firm-despite-downbeat-tokyo-cpi/
2023-12-04 13:54
The bias is bearish as long as it stays below the median line. Friday’s low stands as a downside target. The lower median line is seen as a major target. The EUR/USD price was trading in red at 1.0865 at the time of writing. The pair seems ready to resume its downtrend. The Euro has rebounded after reaching Friday’s low of 1.0828. However, the bias remains bearish as the US dollar could jump higher. –Are you interested to learn more about forex options trading? Check our detailed guide- Fundamentally, the US and Eurozone published mixed data on Friday. The Greenback lost some ground versus its rivals in the short term as the US ISM Manufacturing PMI came in worse than expected. Today, the US is to release the Factory Orders data. The economic indicator is expected to report a 2.7% drop versus the 2.8% growth in the previous reporting period. On the other hand, the German Trade Balance and the Spanish Unemployment Change came in better than expected, while the Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence came in worse than predicted. Tomorrow, the US ISM Services PMI and JOLTS Job Openings represent high-impact events and could shake the markets. Positive US data should help Greenback dominate the currency market in the short term. From the technical point of view, the EUR/USD price tumbled and ignored the uptrend line after failing to stabilize above the 1.1 psychological level. It has also dropped below the descending pitchfork’s median line (ml), representing a support. After the impressive sell-off, the rate returned to retest the median line (support turned into resistance). -If you are interested in knowing about scalping forex brokers, then read our guidelines to get started- The price could resume its leg down as long as it stays below it. Friday’s low of 1.0828 represents a potential downside target. Still, the lower median line (LML) represents the next major downside target. The downside scenario could be invalidated if the rate jumps and stabilizes above the median line (ml). https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2023/12/04/eur-usd-price-struggles-as-dollar-attempts-a-recovery/
2023-12-04 11:01
Investors awaited a crucial US employment report later in the week. Data revealed that Canada added more jobs than anticipated last month. Canada’s manufacturing sector contracted in November. On Monday, there was a bullish shift in the USD/CAD outlook. The dollar staged a comeback, although investors digested cautious remarks from Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Moreover, they awaited a crucial employment report later in the week that could impact the US interest rate outlook. –Are you interested to learn more about forex options trading? Check our detailed guide- Meanwhile, the Canadian dollar surged to a two-month high against the US dollar on Friday. This move came after positive domestic data that revealed the economy added more jobs than anticipated last month. In November, Canadian employment increased by 24,900 jobs, surpassing economists’ expectations of a 15,000 gain. However, hours worked declined, and the jobless rate increased to 5.8%. This jobs data contributed to the positive sentiment surrounding the Canadian dollar. Notably, the currency had already benefited from the recent broad-based weakness in the US dollar. Additionally, data indicated that Canada’s manufacturing sector contracted in November due to global industrial weakness affecting output and new orders. Simultaneously, the US dollar weakened against a basket of major currencies as Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell cautioned about further interest rate adjustments. Furthermore, the price of oil, a significant Canadian export, settled 2.5% lower. This decline was due to concerns about the latest round of OPEC+ production cuts in the market. USD/CAD key events today The pair will likely move sideways as there won’t be any key economic reports from Canada or the US. USD/CAD technical outlook: 1.3500 support triggers rebound On the charts, the bias is bearish. However, the price is recovering after respecting the 1.3500 key support level. Bears have been in the lead for long, pushing the price to new lows. At the same time, bulls kept challenging the uptrend at the 30-SMA but failed to push above. -If you are interested in knowing about scalping forex brokers, then read our guidelines to get started- The downtrend has paused at the 1.3500 key level, a new low in the decline. However, the RSI shows weaker momentum at this level, which has allowed bulls to emerge for a rebound. Still, since the bearish bias is strong, bulls might pause at the 30-SMA resistance, where bears will resume the decline. A break below the 1.3500 key level would allow the price to retest the 1.3451 level. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2023/12/04/usd-cad-outlook-dollar-mounts-a-comeback-post-powell/
2023-12-04 08:39
Powell affirmed that US monetary policy was slowing the economy as anticipated. There is a 60% likelihood of a Fed rate cut by March. The Reserve Bank of Australia will probably maintain its key interest rate at 4.35%. Monday’s AUD/USD forecast has a subtle bearish tone as the dollar tries to recover after declining due to cautious remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. On Friday, Powell affirmed that US monetary policy was slowing the economy as anticipated, with the benchmark overnight interest rate residing “well into restrictive territory.” Consequently, markets adjusted, indicating a 60% likelihood of a rate cut by the March meeting, up from 21% just over a week ago. –Are you interested to learn more about forex options trading? Check our detailed guide- Kyle Rodda, a senior financial market analyst at Capital.com, highlighted that US data remains the “primary driver” for the G10 currencies. Moreover, non-farm payrolls are the “most important risk event” for the week. The eagerly anticipated November jobs report is scheduled for release on Friday. According to Rodda, the performance of dollar pairs may receive ongoing support based on US economic data. Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of Australia will probably maintain its key interest rate at 4.35% tomorrow. Furthermore, a Reuters poll suggests a shift in expectations for a rate cut. Currently, markets do not expect rate cuts until the fourth quarter of the next year due to a robust housing market. Rates in Australia are at a 12-year high. Still, Australian home prices have rebounded from 2022 losses since hitting a low point in January. Moreover, projections indicate an 8% price increase this year and an additional 5% next year. AUD/USD key events today Investors do not expect high-impact news releases from Australia or the US today. Consequently, it might be a silent session for the pair. AUD/USD technical forecast: Potential pullback as uptrend shows fatigue Aussie has made a new high on the charts after bouncing off the 30-SMA and the 0.6600 support level. Moreover, the price is above the SMA, and the RSI is above 50, supporting the bullish bias. However, despite the new high, bullish momentum is fading. A closer look at the RSI shows a bearish divergence, a sign that bulls are exhausted. -If you are interested in knowing about scalping forex brokers, then read our guidelines to get started- Exhaustion could lead to a pullback or reversal in the trend. Already, price action at the most recent high shows bulls weakening and bears gaining strength. The price has made a doji candle and a bearish engulfing candle, indicating an imminent decline. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2023/12/04/aud-usd-forecast-markets-reflect-on-powells-cautious-remarks/
2023-12-02 17:46
US economic data supported the view that the Fed would soon start cutting rates. Canada reported a higher-than-expected employment growth. The BoC will likely maintain its main policy rate at 5.0% next week. The USD/CAD weekly forecast predicts a bearish trajectory, with recent US data signaling a potential conclusion to Fed rate hikes. This narrative suggests a probable extension of dollar weakness. –Are you interested to learn more about forex options trading? Check our detailed guide- Ups and downs of USD/CAD The loonie had a bearish week characterized by dollar weakness and Canadian dollar strength. The dollar fell last week as economic data supported the view that the Fed would soon start cutting rates. Notably, unemployment claims in the US rose last week, showing less demand in the labor market. At the same time, the core PCE price index showed a decline in inflation, supporting a Fed pivot. Moreover, the dollar declined as investors digested Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s commitment to approach interest rates “carefully.” Meanwhile, employment data from Canada showed a higher-than-expected figure that supported the Canadian dollar on Friday. Still, the BOC will likely leave rates unchanged next week. Next week’s key events for USD/CAD Next week, the Bank of Canada will hold its monetary policy meeting, where investors expect a hold on interest rates. In a recent speech, BoC Governor Tiff Macklem suggested that with excess demand gone and anticipated weak growth, interest rates might be sufficiently restrictive. This has led to the widespread conclusion that the central bank has ceased hiking rates. The BoC will maintain its main policy rate at 5.0% until at least the end of March, aligning with expectations for the US Federal Reserve. Another major report next week is the US nonfarm payrolls. The last employment report showed easing in the labor market and supported expectations for Fed rate cuts. Another such report could lead to a more dovish Fed. USD/CAD weekly technical forecast: Bullish channel cracks under pressure On the charts, USD/CAD has broken out of its bullish channel, signaling a change in direction. Bulls were stronger than bears in the channel and kept pushing the price back above the 22-SMA. -If you are interested in knowing about scalping forex brokers, then read our guidelines to get started- At the same time, the RSI mainly traded above 50, supporting bullish momentum. However, this has all changed with a breakout at the channel support. Bears are now in control, and the RSI has dipped into bearish territory. Moreover, the price has pushed far below the 22-SMA, supporting bears. Next week, the price will likely fall to the 1.3400 support level. However, it might pull back to retest the recently broken 1.3650 key level before continuing lower. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2023/12/02/usd-cad-weekly-forecast-us-inflation-data-weakens-dollar/
