2023-11-24 09:47

There was an uptick in Japan’s core consumer price growth. The dollar has declined by 2.8% for the month, heading for its weakest monthly performance. Japan’s factory activity contracted for the sixth consecutive month in November. The USD/JPY price analysis on Friday suggested a subtle bearish sentiment, with the yen gaining strength in response to an increase in Japan’s core consumer price growth. This upward trend further bolstered the anticipation that the Bank of Japan could potentially withdraw its monetary stimulus in the near future. –Are you interested to learn more about forex bonuses? Check our detailed guide- Notably, Japan’s core consumer price growth slightly increased in October, countering the previous month’s drop. Consequently, investors expect persistent inflation to push the Bank of Japan to scale back its monetary stimulus soon. At the same time, ING economists anticipate the BOJ to shift away from its dovish stance next year. The Japanese yen strengthened by 0.21% to 149.23 per dollar, gradually recovering from the near 33-year low of 151.92. Additionally, it has seen a 1.5% increase for the month. Furthermore, a business survey on Friday revealed that Japan’s factory activity contracted for the sixth consecutive month in November. Japan’s economy remains fragile amid weak demand and inflation. Meanwhile, the dollar fell 0.058% to 103.71, remaining close to the two-and-a-half-month low of 103.17 earlier in the week. Moreover, the dollar has declined by 2.8% for the month, heading for its weakest monthly performance in a year. This decline was due to growing expectations that the Fed would conclude its interest rate hikes and start rate cuts next year. However, market expectations for Fed rate cuts in 2024 have decreased. At the moment, futures indicate a 26% chance of a rate cut at the March 2024 policy meeting. It is down from a 33% chance the previous week. USD/JPY key events today The US S&P Global Services PMI (Nov) USD/JPY technical price analysis: Bulls struggle to sever ties with the 30-SMA On the technical side, the USD/JPY price trades between the 149.00 support and the 150.01 resistance level. This move comes after bulls took over by pushing the price above the 149.00 level and the 30-SMA. Moreover, the RSI has risen above 50 to support solid bullish momentum. –Are you interested to learn more about crypto signals? Check our detailed guide- However, the price is still pulling back to retest the SMA and is yet to make a big bullish swing. Therefore, to confirm the new bullish trend, bulls must detach from the 30-SMA and take out the 150.01 resistance level. https://www.forexcrunch.com/usd-jpy-price-analysis-yen-gains-on-japans-inflation-uptick/

2023-11-24 09:38

The bias remains bullish despite minor retreats. False breakouts through the immediate resistance levels may announce a new sell-off. The US data should have a major impact today. The GBP/USD price retreated slightly after posting a new high of 1.2569 in the last session. The pair is trading at 1.2534 at the time of writing. The price has changed little in the short term as the US banks were closed in observance of Thanksgiving Day. –Are you interested to learn more about forex bonuses? Check our detailed guide- Fundamentally, the price stays higher as the United Kingdom reported positive data yesterday. The Flash Manufacturing PMI jumped from 44.8 to 46.7 points, above 45.0 points expected, while the Flash Services PMI was reported at 50.5, above 49.5 points expected, confirming expansion. Today, the Gfk Consumer Confidence came in at -24 points versus the forecasted -28 points. Later, the US economic figures should be decisive. The Flash Services PMI could drop from 50.6 points to 50.4 points, while Flash Manufacturing PMI is expected to drop to 49.9 points from 50.0 points, indicating contraction again. Better than expected, US data should boost the greenback across the board. Also, the Canadian Retail Sales and Core Retail Sales should significantly impact the USD. Technically, the GBP/USD price failed to stay above the 1.2548 historical level and the ascending pitchfork’s median line (ml), signaling exhausted buyers. Still, the bias remains bullish, taking out the weekly R1 (1.2570), coming back above the median line, and making a new higher high may activate further growth. –Are you interested to learn more about crypto signals? Check our detailed guide- On the contrary, new false breakouts through the immediate resistance levels may announce a new sell-off. A bearish pattern could signal a strong correction toward the ascending pitchfork’s lower median line (LML). https://www.forexcrunch.com/gbp-usd-price-overbought-near-1-2550-on-a-dull-day/

2023-11-24 09:27

Data hinted at a potential easing of the downturn in the Eurozone economy. The Eurozone economy will likely contract again in the fourth quarter. Data showed a greater-than-expected drop in Americans filing new jobless claims. Positive Eurozone PMI data on Friday helped the euro maintain its stability, infusing a sense of optimistic bullishness into the outlook for EUR/USD. On Thursday, data hinted at a potential easing of the downturn in the Eurozone economy. –Are you interested to learn more about forex bonuses? Check our detailed guide- However, trading was subdued due to holidays in the US and Japan. Notably, preliminary surveys indicated that the recession in Germany might be less severe than anticipated. Consequently, it overshadowed poor figures for French business activity. Michael Brown, a strategist at TraderX, commented that while there’s a slight improvement, it only suggests that things are becoming slightly less bad. Moreover, the survey revealed that the Eurozone economy will likely contract again in the fourth quarter. Saxo Bank strategists noted, “Euro/dollar rose back above $1.09 but may face formidable resistance at $1.096.” Elsewhere, the markets barely reacted to the surprising victory of anti-EU far-right populist Geert Wilders in Wednesday’s Dutch parliamentary elections. Meanwhile, the dollar index decreased by 0.14%, the first decline since Monday. This decline followed data showing a greater-than-expected drop in Americans filing new jobless benefit claims last week. Adding to concerns for the Federal Reserve, a University of Michigan survey on Wednesday indicated that consumers this month anticipate higher inflation in both the near and long term. Consequently, market expectations for Fed rate cuts in 2024 have dropped. Futures now indicate a 27% chance that the Fed will cut its target rate at the March 2024 policy meeting. EUR/USD key events today US S&P Global Services PMI EUR/USD technical outlook: Trapped between 30-SMA and 1.0900 level. On the technical side, the EUR/USD pair trades in a tight range between the 30-SMA and the 1.0900 critical level. Bulls and bears are fighting for control at this level. However, a closer look at price action before it got to the 30-SMA shows that bulls were in control. –Are you interested to learn more about crypto signals? Check our detailed guide- This is also clear in the RSI. Although it dipped below 50, it trades above, indicating solid bullish momentum. Therefore, bulls have a higher chance of pushing the price above the SMA to retest the 1.0950 resistance level. https://www.forexcrunch.com/eur-usd-outlook-euro-holds-ground-after-a-boost-from-pmi/

2023-11-23 15:33

The bias remains bullish despite the last retreat. The US data should be decisive tomorrow. Taking out the upper median line (uml) activates more declines. The gold price slipped lower after reaching today’s high of $1,998. The metal is trading at $1,993 at press time. The bias remains bullish despite minor corrections. –Are you interested to learn more about forex bonuses? Check our detailed guide- Gold lost altitude as the US dollar rebounded after the Canadian inflation data release and the FOMC Meeting minutes. Yesterday, Greenback received a helping hand from the Unemployment Claims and the Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment. Today, the US banks are closed in observance of Thanksgiving Day, so the volatility could be low during the US session. Earlier, the UK Flash Manufacturing PMI came in at 46.7 points above 45.0 points expected, while Flash Services PMI jumped to 50.5 points, confirming expansion again. Furthermore, the German and Eurozone manufacturing and services sectors remain in contraction territory. Still, despite high-impact data publication, the XAU/USD changed little in the short term. New Zealand will release the Retail Sales and Core Retail Sales data tonight. The economic figures should bring some action. Tomorrow, the US Flash Manufacturing PMI and Flash Services PMI represent high-impact events. In addition, the Canadian retail sales data could bring life to XAU/USD. As you can see on the hourly chart, the price found resistance at the weekly R1 (2,005). Now it has turned to the downside. The false breakouts confirmed exhausted buyers and an overbought situation. –Are you interested to learn more about crypto signals? Check our detailed guide- Now, it challenges the upper median line (uml), representing dynamic support. If it stays above it, the XAU/USD could resume its growth anytime. On the contrary, dropping and stabilizing below it may trigger a larger downward movement. https://www.forexcrunch.com/gold-price-unchanged-under-2000-after-pmi-data/

2023-11-23 09:33

Jeremy Hunt introduced tax cuts and growth-boosting measures in his autumn budget. Hunt forecasted a slower UK economic outlook than anticipated. Data indicated a larger-than-expected drop in US unemployment claims. Thursday witnessed a steadying pound, pausing its previous-session decline and contributing to a cautiously optimistic GBP/USD outlook. On Wednesday, UK Finance Minister Jeremy Hunt introduced tax cuts and growth-boosting measures in his autumn budget. However, despite these initiatives, he forecasted a slower economic outlook than anticipated. –Are you interested to learn more about forex bonuses? Check our detailed guide- Notably, he announced worker tax cuts and provided permanent investment incentives for businesses. These reforms are meant to accelerate an economy stuck in a slow growth pattern before the expected 2024 election. Conversely, the dollar index rose on Wednesday, recovering after economic data indicated a larger-than-expected drop in US unemployment claims last week. The Labor Department reported a 24,000 decrease in initial claims for state unemployment benefits. It marked the lowest level in over a month. Moreover, the dollar continued its gains after the University of Michigan’s survey revealed that US consumers’ inflation expectations rose for the second month in November. Meanwhile, other data showed a more substantial-than-expected decline in orders for durable US manufactured goods in October. This drop came from lower orders for motor vehicles. Moreover, there were strikes by the United Auto Workers union against Detroit’s Big Three automakers. The dollar index had reached its lowest level since Aug. 31 on Tuesday. However, it stabilized after minutes from the Federal Reserve’s last meeting. The minutes suggested the central bank’s inclination to maintain a restrictive stance on interest rates for some time. Still, additional rate hikes are unlikely. GBP/USD key events today The pair will likely move sideways as markets in the US are closed for the Thanksgiving holiday. GBP/USD technical outlook: Price hits 30-SMA support amid uptrend weakness The pound dropped to the 30-SMA support after the RSI pointed to weakness in the uptrend. It is a sign that bears took advantage of bullish weakness to lower the price. However, they could not change the bias to bearish as they failed to break below the 30-SMA. –Are you interested to learn more about crypto signals? Check our detailed guide- Moreover, the RSI stayed above the pivotal 50 level, supporting bullish momentum. The price is currently trading near the 1.2501 key level and the SMA. There is a high chance that the bulls will regain momentum and bounce off this support zone. However, there will be a shift in sentiment if the price falls below the 30-SMA. https://www.forexcrunch.com/gbp-usd-outlook-pound-steadies-after-hunts-tax-cuts/

2023-11-23 08:13

Currencies saw little movement, with markets closed for the Thanksgiving holiday in the US. US data revealed a greater-than-expected drop in American unemployment claims. The European Central Bank will release its October policy meeting minutes. While the EUR/USD forecast leaned slightly bearish, the currency markets remained hushed on Thursday due to holidays in Japan and the United States. Meanwhile, the US dollar struggled to maintain slight gains after data prompted investors to reconsider the peak for Fed rates. –Are you interested to learn more about forex bonuses? Check our detailed guide- The euro saw little movement, with markets closed for the Thanksgiving holiday in the US. However, the euro fell as the dollar index rebounded overnight, rising from a 2-1/2 month low. Economic data revealed a greater-than-expected drop in Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits last week. However, confusing investors, data also showed a larger-than-anticipated decline in orders for durable US manufactured goods in October. Therefore, it shows a significant economic slowdown after strong third-quarter growth. Meanwhile, a Michigan survey indicated that consumers expect higher inflation in the near and long term. Market expectations for Fed rate cuts in 2024 have decreased. Notably, the CME Group’s FedWatch tool indicates a 27% chance of a rate cut at the March 2024 policy meeting. Elsewhere, the ECB will release its October policy meeting minutes. Additionally, policymakers anticipate a reversal in recent rate hikes. Governing Council member Joachim Nagel suggested rates in the Eurozone are at or near their peak in the current cycle. Furthermore, global flash November purchasing manager indexes (PMIs) will be released. These will help investors assess recession risks and the timing of rate cuts. EUR/USD key events today Investors are not expecting any significant economic releases as the US observes the Thanksgiving holiday. Therefore, trading might be thin today. EUR/USD technical forecast: Bearish RSI divergence takes effect The bearish divergence on the RSI has played out on the charts, pushing the price below the 30-SMA. At the same time, the price broke below the 1.0900 key level before pulling back for a retest. It was a good attempt for the bears to take control. –Are you interested to learn more about crypto signals? Check our detailed guide- However, the price still needs to detach from the SMA. Moreover, the RSI must start trading in bearish territory to confirm a bearish takeover. If bears win this battle, the price will likely drop to the 1.0750 support level. However, if bulls regain strength, the price will likely take out the 1.0951 resistance level. https://www.forexcrunch.com/eur-usd-forecast-markets-lull-on-thanksgiving/