2023-11-17 10:04

The pound continued its slide following a brief respite on Thursday. The dollar was weak after data increased bets for Fed rate cuts. Recent data revealed a notable cooling of British inflation in October. Friday’s GBP/USD price analysis shows a bearish tone persists as the pound continues its slide, following a brief respite on Thursday. This decline started after the poor UK inflation report. Similarly, the dollar was weak after recent data increased bets for Fed rate cuts. –Are you interested to learn more about MT5 brokers? Check our detailed guide- Recent data revealed a notable cooling of British inflation in October. It marked its fastest decline in over 30 years. Moreover, it reinforced expectations of BoE interest rate cuts by mid-next year. However, the BoE emphasized it is far from reducing rates from their 15-year high, even as the economy hovers near a recession. Notably, Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden indicated Thursday that the Bank of England would likely maintain high interest rates for an extended period. Still, financial markets predict the BoE might commence rate cuts in May or June next year. Furthermore, three quarter-point cuts are anticipated by the end of 2024. Meanwhile, in the US, new claims for unemployment benefits rose to a three-month high. This indicates a gradual cooling of the labor market and supports the Federal Reserve’s fight against inflation. Consequently, the dollar weakened against a basket of currencies, and US Treasury prices rose, nearing two-month lows. Additionally, the series of inflation-friendly data has led financial markets to anticipate an interest rate cut in May. Since March 2022, the Fed has raised its policy rate by 525 basis points. GBP/USD key events today The US building permits report for October. GBP/USD technical price analysis: Price moves to challenge the 1.2401 support level. The pound has declined from highs hit near the 1.2501 key level. The price is now attempting to breach the 1.2401 support level. However, bulls are still stronger as the price is above the 30-SMA. Additionally, the RSI is slightly above 50, supporting bullish momentum. –Are you interested to learn more about Thailand forex brokers? Check our detailed guide- Bears must break below the 1.2401 support level and the 30-SMA for this bias to change. This would then signal a shift in sentiment to bearish. Moreover, it would allow the price to retest the 1.2300 level. However, if the bullish bias holds, the price will bounce off the SMA to a new high above the 1.2501 resistance level. https://www.forexcrunch.com/gbp-usd-price-analysis-pound-resumes-its-post-inflation-slide/

2023-11-17 08:55

Oil was on course for its fourth consecutive week of declines. US unemployment benefit claims rose to 231,000, exceeding the expected 220,000. US industrial production declined by 0.6% in October. The USD/CAD outlook shines as the Canadian dollar softens amid lower oil prices, with the pair rising despite dollar weakness. On Friday, oil prices showed little change but were on course for their fourth consecutive week of declines. However, they dropped around 5% to a four-month low on Thursday due to concerns about global demand. This decline weighed heavily on the Canadian dollar. –Are you interested to learn more about MT5 brokers? Check our detailed guide- Notably, this week’s decline in oil is primarily due to a significant increase in US crude inventories and record-level production. Consequently, there are worries about weak demand in the world’s largest oil consumer. Moreover, JPMorgan’s commodities research reported that its global oil demand tracker indicated an average demand of 101.6 million barrels daily in the first half of November. However, this figure is 200,000 bpd lower than the month’s projected demand. At the same time, analysts suggest the recent price drop may lead Saudi Arabia to extend its oil output cuts into 2024. Meanwhile, the US dollar was weak after a set of downbeat data. Unemployment benefit claims rose to 231,000, exceeding the expected 220,000 reading. Concurrently, industrial production declined by 0.6% month-on-month in October, with manufacturing output down 0.7%. ANZ noted, “Manufacturing output pointed to ongoing struggles in the sector. The lagged effects of monetary tightening are now feeding through. Furthermore, we expect moderation across output, labor, and inflation in the coming months and quarters.” Elsewhere, Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook remarked Thursday that US economic risks were two-sided. Still, there is the possibility of a ‘soft landing.’ USD/CAD key events today The US building permits report USD/CAD technical outlook: Bulls take the lead above the 30-SMA. On the charts, the USD/CAD price is on the verge of crossing above the 30-SMA. This comes after bulls broke above the 1.3750 resistance level. At the same time, the RSI has crossed above 50, indicating a shift in sentiment to bullish. –Are you interested to learn more about Thailand forex brokers? Check our detailed guide- The bulls might soon take charge. However, the price still trades in a larger scale range. There is almost equal strength for bulls and bears between the 1.3650 support and the 1.3851 resistance. Therefore, bulls must break above the 1.3851 resistance for the price to start trending. https://www.forexcrunch.com/usd-cad-outlook-oils-plunge-leaves-canadian-dollar-feeble/

2023-11-16 14:34

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2023-11-16 12:37

The bias remains bullish as long as it stays above the median line. A new higher high activates further growth. The US data should bring life to the EUR/USD pair. The EUR/USD price has shown continued growth following the release of US inflation data, reaching the 1.0887 level. Presently, it has experienced a slight retreat and stands at 1.0848 as of the current moment. –Are you interested to learn more about MT5 brokers? Check our detailed guide- It’s worth noting that a temporary pullback is a common occurrence after a recent upward swing. The rebound of the Dollar Index contributed to the USD gaining ground against its counterparts. Despite this, the currency pair maintains a positive outlook in the short term, given the potential for the Dollar Index to reverse course at any moment. Yesterday brought a mix of economic data from both the Eurozone and the US. Notably, the US retail sales figures and the Empire State Manufacturing Index provided support to the greenback. Today’s US data is expected to play a crucial role in shaping market dynamics. Projections indicate that Unemployment Claims may rise to 221K from the previous 217K. The Philly Fed Manufacturing Index is anticipated at -10.4 points, and Industrial Production could see a 0.4% decline following a 0.3% growth in the prior reporting period. Additionally, the Capacity Utilization Rate is expected to be at 79.4% in October, a slight decrease from 79.7% in September. It’s important to note that positive US economic data is likely to strengthen the USD, while weaker-than-expected figures could exert downward pressure on the greenback. The market remains responsive to these indicators, and prudent observation is warranted. EUR/USD price technical analysis: From a technical perspective, the EUR/USD pair experienced a retreat after falling short of reaching the upper median line (uml) of the ascending pitchfork. The inability to retest the 1.0887 higher high and a false breakout above 1.0865 signaled weakening momentum among buyers. Currently, the pair approaches the median line (ml) as a dynamic support. The overall bullish bias persists as long as the price remains above this level, and the potential for an upside continuation is activated with a new higher high. –Are you interested to learn more about Thailand forex brokers? Check our detailed guide- However, it’s essential to monitor the situation closely. If the pair drops and stabilizes below the median line, a more significant correction could be triggered. In such a scenario, downside targets may include the R2 level at 1.0800 and the lower median line (lml). This potential correction could materialize, particularly if the Dollar Index (DXY) rallies following the release of US data. As always, staying attentive to market developments will be key in navigating potential shifts in the currency pair’s dynamics. https://www.forexcrunch.com/eur-usd-price-corrects-after-cpi-led-gains-to-1-0880/

2023-11-16 09:58

There are signs that the Fed might postpone any plans for interest rate cuts. Japan’s exports grew for a second consecutive month in October. Traders have reduced the probability of an initial Fed rate cut by March. Thursday’s USD/JPY outlook leans towards the bullish side as the dollar firms on signs that the Federal Reserve might postpone any plans for interest rate cuts. Meanwhile, the yen was weaker after data revealed a slowdown in Japan’s economy. –Are you interested to learn more about MT5 brokers? Check our detailed guide- Japan’s exports grew for a second consecutive month in October. However, the growth was considerably slower, mainly due to reduced shipments of chips and steel to China. Ministry of Finance data revealed a 1.6% increase in exports from a year earlier. Although it surpassed the 1.2% forecasted by economists, it lagged behind the 4.3% rise in September. Notably, the trade-dependent economy faces challenges from weak exports and sluggish domestic demand. Consequently, it complicates efforts to stimulate growth in the post-pandemic recovery. Moreover, some economists caution that Japan, lacking growth momentum, could enter a technical recession, defined as two consecutive quarters of contraction. Meanwhile, the dollar found support after retail sales exceeded expectations and producer prices fell. The data contributed to the narrative of an economic ‘soft landing.’ Furthermore, this scenario would provide the Fed additional time before implementing rate cuts. Traders continue to be confident that interest rates will not increase. However, they have reduced the probability of an initial rate cut by March to less than 1 in 4. USD/JPY key events today Investors are preparing to receive reports from the US that will show the state of the economy, including The initial jobless claims report The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index USD/JPY technical outlook: Bulls eye upside potential beyond the 30-SMA On the charts, the USD/JPY price is attempting to push above the 30-SMA as bulls struggle for control. However, they face an uphill task with resistance at the SMA and slightly above at the 151.51 key level. Still, the RSI has crossed above 50, showing bulls are gaining momentum. –Are you interested to learn more about Thailand forex brokers? Check our detailed guide- The next step for bulls will be to detach from the SMA and break above the 151.51 resistance. This would then allow the price to seek new highs. However, if bulls fail to breach the 151.51 level, the price will likely collapse to retest the 150.75 support and lower. https://www.forexcrunch.com/usd-jpy-outlook-markets-anticipate-delay-in-fed-rate-cuts/

2023-11-16 08:41

Australian employment rebounded in October. Australia’s jobless rate slightly increased as more individuals actively sought employment. Markets see little justification for the RBA to hike in December. The Aussie’s dip following a mixed employment report sparked a hint of bearish sentiment in Thursday’s AUD/USD forecast. Australian employment rebounded in October following a sluggish period the previous month. However, the jobless rate slightly increased as more individuals actively sought employment. At the same time, increased migration contributed to a larger labor supply. –Are you interested to learn more about MT5 brokers? Check our detailed guide- Notably, net employment in Australia surged by 55,000 in October, surpassing market expectations of 20,000. Meanwhile, the jobless rate increased to 3.7%, in line with forecasts. This increase was primarily due to a rise in the participation rate, reaching an all-time peak of 67%. Record numbers of migrants and students entering the country expanded the labor supply to meet demand. Therefore, despite the solid employment figure of 55,000, the labor force grew even more substantially by 83,000. Consequently, the increased supply suggests that the labor market is not the primary driver of inflation. As such, markets see little justification for the RBA implementing another rate hike in December. The central bank recently raised rates to a 12-year high of 4.35% and kept the possibility of further increases open. However, futures indicate only a 7% probability of a rise in December. Moreover, the labor data hinted at a potential easing in the market, with the ABS highlighting a drop in the annual growth of hours worked from 5% earlier in the year to 1.7%. AUD/USD key events today Investors are eagerly awaiting major economic reports from the US, including Initial jobless claims The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index AUD/USD technical forecast: Resistance at 0.6525 prompts pullback. Although the bias for AUD/USD is bullish, the price is currently pulling back after finding resistance at the 0.6525 level. The SMA, which sits below the price, and the RSI, which trades in bullish territory, support the bullish bias. –Are you interested to learn more about Thailand forex brokers? Check our detailed guide- The pullback is approaching the 0.6450 support level, where bulls might be waiting to resume the bullish move. Moreover, the 30-SMA might act as support for the price if it dips below 0.6450. A return of bullish momentum will likely see the price make a new high above the 0.6525 resistance level. However, the bullish bias will change if the price breaks below the 30-SMA. https://www.forexcrunch.com/aud-usd-forecast-mixed-jobs-data-weighs-on-aussie/