2023-11-15 09:30
An unexpectedly softer US inflation reading weighed on the dollar. The euro hovered just below a more than two-month high achieved on Tuesday. Data confirmed a slight contraction in the Eurozone economy in the third quarter. The EUR/USD forecast is bullish as the dollar struggles significantly lower. This struggle comes after an overnight decline triggered by an unexpectedly softer US inflation reading. The report reinforced the belief that the Federal Reserve has completed its monetary tightening cycle. The dollar’s slump led to a surge in many peer currencies, and the euro hovered just below a more than two-month high achieved on Tuesday. –Are you interested to learn more about MT5 brokers? Check our detailed guide- Data showed that US consumer prices remained unchanged in October. Moreover, the annual increase in underlying inflation was the smallest in two years. Over the 12 months through October, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 3.2%, falling below economists’ projections. Consequently, market participants nearly ruled out the possibility of another rate hike at the Fed’s December monetary policy meeting. Meanwhile, expectations of a rate cut in May next year rose to approximately 50%. The dollar plummeted by 1.5% overnight against major currencies. Additionally, US Treasury yields, which had previously contributed to the dollar’s strength, experienced a significant decline. Meanwhile, a new estimate on Tuesday confirmed a slight contraction in the Eurozone economy in the third quarter. As a result, there are concerns about a potential technical recession if the fourth quarter follows a similarly weak trend. However, there was a positive note as employment levels still experienced an increase. EUR/USD key events today Key events from the US today will include reports on, Core retail sales The producer price index Retail sales EUR/USD technical forecast: Bullish trend surges well past 1.0751. The bullish bias for EUR/USD is strong as it finally broke above the 1.0751 resistance level to make a new high. The price had traded in a sideways move below 1.0751 for some time before going above. Moreover, it has rallied and is approaching the 1.0900 key resistance level. –Are you interested to learn more about Thailand forex brokers? Check our detailed guide- However, the price is overbought, as seen in the RSI, which trades above 70. It might allow bears to resurface for a pullback. At the same time, the price is trading too far above the 30-SMA, and it might need to pull back before continuing higher. Still, bulls will likely soon take out the 1.0900 key level. https://www.forexcrunch.com/eur-usd-forecast-dollar-wallows-after-soft-inflation-data/
2023-11-15 08:50
The bias is bullish as long as it stays above the upper median line. The US economic data should bring high volatility today. Taking out the static resistance activates further growth. Gold price increased in the recent trading session, hitting a new high of $1,971. It did dip a bit in the short term but quickly went back up to $1,971. This happened because of the recent U.S. inflation data, where the Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed lower inflation than expected. –Are you interested to learn more about Thailand forex brokers? Check our detailed guide- This made the Federal Reserve (FED) decide to keep the monetary policy unchanged in the upcoming meetings. As a result, the U.S. dollar weakened against other currencies, leading to the rise in gold prices. Today, good news came in from China – the Industrial Production and Retail Sales were better than expected. In Australia, the Wage Price Index matched what was predicted. In the United Kingdom, the Consumer Price Index reported a 4.6% growth instead of the estimated 4.7%, and Core CPI rose by 5.7%, slightly less than the expected 5.8% growth. Looking ahead, the U.S. is going to release some important data. Retail Sales may show a 0.3% drop, Core Retail Sales might announce a 0.1% drop, PPI is expected to register a 0.1% growth, and the Core PPI could report a 0.3% growth again. Keep an eye out for these numbers as they can have an impact on the market. Gold price technical analysis: Testing resistance at $1,971 Technically, the XAU/USD is going up again after testing certain levels. It went above the 150% Fibonacci line and is now trying to break the 1,971 level, which is like a barrier. If it manages to go higher than this, it could keep growing, reaching at least the R1 level (1,976). The current trend looks positive, as long as it stays above a certain line. https://www.forexcrunch.com/gold-price-preserving-gains-after-downbeat-us-cpi-figures/
2023-11-15 08:03
The pound surged on Tuesday amid dollar weakness. US consumer price data for October indicated a further slowdown in inflation. Many analysts believe that the Fed’s interest rates have peaked. The GBP/USD price analysis indicates a bullish tone as the British pound maintains its position near the recent highs achieved on Tuesday. However, the recent UK CPI data showed a decline to 5.7% against the expected 5.8% and previous 6.1%. Though the price retraced a bit, the uptrend remains intact. The pound surged on Tuesday amid dollar weakness as US consumer price data for October indicated a further slowdown in inflation. Consequently, there is a high likelihood that the Federal Reserve has concluded its interest rate hikes. –Are you interested to learn more about MT5 brokers? Check our detailed guide- US consumer prices held steady last month due to lower gasoline prices, following a 0.4% increase in September. The report’s release led to an immediate decline in the dollar and a sharp drop in Treasury yields. Meanwhile, the benchmark 10-year yield fell below 4.5%. John Doyle from Monex USA in Washington, predicted a continued dollar weakening through the end of the year, possibly into early January. The market welcomed the data. Moreover, many analysts believe that the Fed’s interest rates have peaked. Meanwhile, futures indicate a more than 68% probability the Fed will cut interest rates by 25bps or more by next May. In the UK, data revealed that workers’ wages grew less rapidly in the three months to September. Still, they remained near their record pace. However, these figures are unlikely to reduce the Bank of England’s concerns about inflationary pressures. Moreover, they did not alter market-based forecasts for a UK rate cut in June 2024 at the earliest. GBP/USD key events today The US will release several major economic reports, including: Retail sales Core retail sales The Producer Price Index report. GBP/USD technical price analysis: Bullish momentum surges to new highs. On the technical side, the pound has rallied to new heights, breaking above key resistance levels. The steep surge saw the price break above the 1.2300 and the 1.2401 resistance levels. Currently, bulls have paused below the 1.2501 resistance level. –Are you interested to learn more about Thailand forex brokers? Check our detailed guide- Moreover, the strong surge has left the 30-SMA well below the price. Therefore, it might lead to a pause or pullback as the SMA catches up. At the same time, the RSI is deeply overbought, showing that bullish momentum has hit extreme levels. It might allow bears to come in for a retracement to the 1.2401 support level before the uptrend continues. https://www.forexcrunch.com/gbp-usd-price-analysis-pound-holds-gains-after-us-inflation/
2023-11-14 09:56
The bias is bullish as long as it stays above the lower median line (lml). Taking out the former high activates further growth. The US CPI should bring sharp movements today. The EUR/USD price gained in the late New York session as the US dollar slid again. Right now, things seem positive for Euro in the short term, even with small setbacks. Further pullbacks in the Greenback may stir a deeper correction. –Are you interested to learn more about MT5 brokers? Check our detailed guide- Yesterday, the US Federal Budget Balance was -66.6B, which was not as bad as the expected -70.5B. Before that, it was -171.0B. Today, we’re waiting for the Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment, expected at 6.1 points compared to the previous 2.3 points. German ZEW Economic Sentiment might be 4.9 in November, up from -1.1 in October. Also, the Eurozone Flash GDP might show a 0.1% drop, and Flash Employment Change might report a 0.2% growth. The important stuff today is the US inflation figures. The CPI m/m might show a 0.1% growth, less than the 0.4% growth in September. The CPI y/y could announce a 3.3% growth, and Core CPI should show a 0.3% growth again in October. I think if inflation is lower, it might make the USD weaker. EUR/USD price technical analysis: Wobbling in the supply area https://www.forexcrunch.com/eur-usd-price-mildly-gains-above-1-07-as-market-awaits-us-cpi/
2023-11-14 09:40
Australian business conditions stayed stable in October. Consumer confidence in Australia declined following last week’s rate hike. Traders are focused on US inflation figures scheduled for later on Tuesday. A bearish sentiment took hold in the AUD/USD price analysis as the Australian economic data release could not impress the buyers. Australian business conditions stayed stable in October. Meanwhile, consumer confidence declined following last week’s rate hike by the Reserve Bank of Australia. –Are you interested to learn more about MT5 brokers? Check our detailed guide- The National Australia Bank (NAB) survey indicated a 1-point business condition index increase to +13 in October. On the other hand, confidence dropped by 2 points to -2. Although the survey revealed a slight drop in cost pressures in October, the levels remained high. Labor cost growth and purchase costs eased to a quarterly rate of 1.8%, while retail price growth maintained a quarterly pace of 1.9%. However, overall price growth decreased to its lowest since mid-2020 at 1.0%. At the same time, traders were focused on US inflation figures scheduled for later on Tuesday. Recent statements from Fed policymakers contradicted market expectations that the Fed had concluded its aggressive rate-hike cycle. NAB’s Catril commented, “Overall, the market is also worn out by all messages coming from central banks. Moreover, the higher-for-longer and wait-and-see mode is keeping volatility low.” Furthermore, Catril highlighted the importance of the upcoming CPI number. “We need to wait for that CPI number tonight, which could be a bit of a shaker. If it’s strong, then obviously it brings in the idea that another rate hike from the Fed is possible.” AUD/USD key events today It will be a volatile day for the pair as the US will release a major economic report: The US CPI report. AUD/USD technical price analysis: Bears set sights on the 0.6300 support. The bias for AUD/USD is bearish as the price descends below the 30-SMA. The change from bullish to bearish came when the price broke below the 30-SMA. Furthermore, it strengthened after bears breached the 0.6400 key level to make new lows. –Are you interested to learn more about Thailand forex brokers? Check our detailed guide- Looking at the RSI, there is solid bearish momentum as it sits below the 50 level. The price recently pulled back toward the 30-SMA resistance. However, the rebound was weak, and bears seem ready to resume the downtrend. Moving forward, bears will target the 0.6300 support level. https://www.forexcrunch.com/aud-usd-price-analysis-aussie-slides-after-mixed-data/
2023-11-14 08:35
The yen is hovering near Monday’s one-year low of 151.92. Concerns about potential BOJ intervention could continue to hinder the dollar/yen pair from rising. BOJ policy measures have not significantly sustained a yen rally. As of Tuesday, the USD/JPY outlook signals a bullish trend, fueled by the beaten yen, struggling near a three-decade low against the dollar. This weakness is mainly due to the Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) easy monetary policy. This policy clashes with the likelihood of prolonged higher rates elsewhere. –Are you interested to learn more about MT5 brokers? Check our detailed guide- Notably, the yen was at 151.70 against the dollar, hovering near Monday’s one-year low of 151.92. Meanwhile, on Monday, the yen briefly rose against the dollar after reaching a year-to-date low. However, analysts attribute this to active trading in options expiring this week rather than any intervention by Japanese authorities. Additionally, options and concerns about potential BOJ intervention could continue to stop the dollar/yen pair from climbing. In September of the previous year, Japanese authorities intervened in the market for the first time since 1998. Consequently, the yen got a boost after its decline due to the BOJ’s decision to maintain its ultra-loose monetary policy. Moreover, the BOJ intervened again in October 2022 when the yen hit a 32-year low of 151.94. This year, the BOJ has made gradual steps to phase out its controversial yield curve control (YCC) policy. Moreover, there have been hints of an upcoming end to negative interest rates. However, these measures have not significantly sustained a yen rally. This is especially true as central banks worldwide maintain a hawkish stance with the expectation of enduring higher rates. USD/JPY key events today Investors are eagerly awaiting the US inflation report, which will include the following components, Core CPI (MoM) (Oct) CPI (MoM) (Oct) CPI (YoY) (Oct) USD/JPY technical outlook: Price poised for a potential 30-SMA retest. On the technical side, the USD/JPY price is bullish and trades above the 151.51 key level. Supporting the bullish bias is the fact that the price sits above the 30-SMA and the RSI above 50. However, bears have shown some strength with a strong bearish candle. –Are you interested to learn more about Thailand forex brokers? Check our detailed guide- The price briefly dipped below 151.51 before pulling back. If bears get stronger, the price might soon retest the 30-SMA support. Still, given the bullish bias, it will likely bounce higher to take out the 152.01 resistance level. https://www.forexcrunch.com/usd-jpy-outlook-yen-clings-to-3-decade-low-against-dollar/
