2025-04-28 10:01
The USD/CAD outlook reflects caution among traders ahead of Canada’s federal election. Sales in Canada decreased by 0.4% in February. The dollar held on to last week’s gains as traders awaited developments in the US-China trade war. The USD/CAD outlook reflects caution among traders ahead of Canada’s general election results. As a result, most have remained on the sidelines, keeping the pair in a tight range. Meanwhile, the dollar was steady as market participants hoped for a trade deal between China and the US. Canada’s general election is on Monday. The outcome will determine the country’s future, especially its trade relations with the US. Prime Minister Mark Carney’s ruling party remains in the lead. So far, his government has been willing to do all that it takes to ensure the stability of Canada’s economy. An unexpected win could briefly weaken the loonie. Meanwhile, data released last week showed that sales in Canada decreased by 0.4% in February. However, this was an improvement from the previous month when sales fell by 0.6%. Moreover, analysts predict a 0.7% rebound in March. On the other hand, the dollar held on to last week’s gains as traders awaited developments in the US-China trade war. The two countries adopted a softer stance on tariffs last week, boosting risk appetite. If tariffs come down, the likelihood of a trade deal will increase. At the same time, the outlook for both economies might brighten. USD/CAD key events today Canada Federal Election USD/CAD technical outlook: Bulls take the lead but remain hesitant On the technical side, the USD/CAD price has pushed above the 30-SMA, indicating bulls have taken the lead. At the same time, the RSI trades above 50, suggesting stronger bullish momentum. However, volatility remains low and trading is thin, showing indecision. If you are interested in guaranteed stop-loss forex brokers, check our detailed guide- Although bulls have taken charge, they are not willing to bet big and make significant swings above the SMA. The previous decline slowed and paused when the price reached a key support zone comprising the 1.618 Fib extension level and the 1.3800 support level. Here, bearish momentum faded, and the RSI made a bullish divergence. At the same time, the price began to stick close to the SMA until it broke above. If volatility increases, the price is likely to retest the 1.4050 resistance level. A break above this level would confirm a new uptrend. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/04/28/usd-cad-outlook-caution-prevails-as-canada-awaits-election/
2025-04-28 09:08
The EUR/USD forecast shows a softer euro due to increasing ECB rate cut bets. The euro has gained over 4% in April due to a weak dollar. The US will release its monthly employment report. The EUR/USD forecast shows a softer euro near mid-1.13 amid an increasing likelihood of another ECB rate cut in June. Meanwhile, the dollar remained steady after its rebound last week, driven by hopes of a trade deal between China and the US. If you are interested in automated forex trading, check our detailed guide- The European Central Bank recently lowered borrowing costs, noting that Trump’s tariffs would negatively impact growth. As a result, market participants moved to price more rate cuts in the coming month. ECB governors at the IMF and World Bank Spring Meetings noted that growth in the Eurozone was declining. Moreover, policymakers have shown their willingness to cut rates by another 25-bps in June. Nevertheless, the euro has gained over 4% in April due to a weak dollar. Trump’s activities since taking office have eroded investor confidence in the US economy, hurting the greenback. However, last week, the US currency found some shine as tensions between China and the US eased. The US is ready to lower tariffs on China to start negotiations. Meanwhile, China is prepared to exempt some US goods from tariffs. This week, traders will be watching for developments in US trade policy and key economic data. The US will release its monthly employment report. EUR/USD key events today Market participants do not expect any key economic releases from the Eurozone or the US. Therefore, the pair might start the week quietly. EUR/USD technical forecast: Downtrend looms below the 1.1301 support On the technical side, the EUR/USD price trades in a tight range between the 30-SMA and the 1.1301 support level. However, since the price trades below the SMA, the bias is bearish. At the same time, the RSI is under 50, indicating stronger bearish momentum. If you are interested in guaranteed stop-loss forex brokers, check our detailed guide- The EUR/USD recently turned bearish after the price failed to break above the 1.1550 resistance level. Initially, bulls had maintained an upward trajectory, making higher highs and lows. At the same time, the price had started respecting support and resistance levels that formed a bullish channel. However, this changed when bears broke below the channel support and the 30-SMA. Still, the price must break below the 1.1301 support to make a new low and confirm a new downtrend. Such an outcome would clear the path to the 1.1002 key level. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/04/28/eur-usd-forecast-euro-softens-amid-ecb-rate-cut-in-june/
2025-04-26 15:58
The USD/JPY weekly forecast indicates improving risk appetite. The US said it was ready to lower tariffs on China to 50% and start negotiations. Market participants will focus on the Bank of Japan policy meeting. The USD/JPY weekly forecast is bullish as improving risk appetite weighs on the safe-haven yen, pushing the pair higher. Ups and downs of USD/JPY The USD/JPY pair had a bullish week as the dollar rebounded and the yen lost its safe-haven appeal. The greenback recovered as calm returned to most US markets. Trump halted his earlier attacks on the Fed, restoring faith in the central bank’s independence. If you are interested in automated forex trading, check our detailed guide- At the same time, trade tensions between China and the US eased. The US said it was ready to lower tariffs on China to 50% and start negotiations. Meanwhile, China was prepared to exempt some US goods from tariffs. As a result, recession concerns eased, boosting the dollar. At the same time, risk appetite improved, hurting the safe-haven yen. Next week’s key events for USD/JPY Next week, the US will release crucial figures on economic growth, business activity, and employment. Moreover, market participants will focus on the Bank of Japan policy meeting. Traders will focus on the US monthly employment report for signs of deterioration in the US economy. Experts believe Trump’s tariffs have hurt the US economy. Meanwhile, Fed policymakers are waiting for evidence of this. Therefore, a downbeat report will increase Fed rate cut expectations, pushing USD/JPY lower. Meanwhile, economists expect the Bank of Japan to keep interest rates unchanged on Thursday. USD/JPY weekly technical forecast: Bulls approach the 30-SMA resistance On the technical side, the USD/JPY price has rebounded after reaching the 140.01 support level. However, it still trades below the 22-SMA, indicating that bears remain in the lead. At the same time, the RSI is under 50, suggesting solid bearish momentum. If you are interested in guaranteed stop-loss forex brokers, check our detailed guide- Bears have maintained the downward trajectory since they took charge near the 158.05 key level. The price has mostly traded below the 22-SMA and the RSI below 50. Moreover, USD/JPY has consistently made lower highs and lows. If this trend continues, the price will respect the SMA as resistance and bounce lower. Even if it punctures the SMA, it will not go beyond the bearish trendline. A break below the 140.01 support will strengthen the bearish bias and continue the downtrend. Meanwhile, the trend can only change if the price breaks above the SMA and the resistance trendline. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/04/26/usd-jpy-weekly-forecast-surging-risk-appetite-drags-yen-lower/
2025-04-26 15:56
The AUD/USD weekly forecast points north as the Aussie gains on trade deal hopes. Economists expect Australia’s inflation to accelerate by 0.8%. Next week, traders will focus on the NFP report. The AUD/USD weekly forecast points north as the Aussie gains on hopes of a US-China trade negotiation. Ups and downs of AUD/USD The AUD/USD pair had a bullish week as the Australian dollar rose on hopes for a trade deal between the US and China. However, a rebound in the dollar kept a lid on gains. If you are interested in automated forex trading, check our detailed guide- During the week, both the US and China assumed softer stances on tariffs, raising hopes for a trade deal between the two countries. As a result, the outlook for China’s economy brightened, boosting the Australian dollar. At the same time, the dollar recovered from its steep losses. Next week’s key events for AUD/USD Next week, market participants will focus on key economic releases from Australia, which will provide insight into the state of inflation in the country. Meanwhile, the US will release GDP, business activity, and employment data. Economists expect inflation to accelerate by 0.8%, a jump from the previous reading of 0.2%. A bigger-than-expected reading will lower RBA rate cut expectations. Meanwhile, a downbeat report will support current expectations for more cuts. In the US, traders will focus on the NFP report. Fed policymakers are waiting to see signs of economic weakness before starting to lower borrowing costs. AUD/USD weekly technical forecast: Bulls test the range resistance zone On the technical side, the AUD/USD price has paused near the 0.6400 key resistance level. It trades above the 22-SMA and the RSI is above 50, suggesting solid bullish momentum. However, for a long time, the price has been trading in a range between the 0.6200 support and the 0.6400 resistance. If you are interested in guaranteed stop-loss forex brokers, check our detailed guide- At the same time, there is support from the 0.236 Fib retracement. Meanwhile, on the upper side, the 0.5 Fib retracement acts as a solid resistance. Bears recently made a breakout, but it ultimately proved false as the price returned to the range area. If bulls are strong, the price will break above the range resistance zone. Such a move would allow AUD/USD to retest the 0.6603 level. Moreover, it would likely start a new bullish trend. On the other hand, if the resistance holds firm, the price will remain in consolidation. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/04/26/aud-usd-weekly-forecast-aussie-gains-on-trade-deal-hopes/
2025-04-25 11:32
The USD/JPY price analysis indicates accelerating price pressures in Japan. Tokyo’s CPI increased by 3.4%, which is above forecasted to be a 3.2% increase. The dollar regained appeal as trade tensions between China and the US eased. The USD/JPY price analysis indicates accelerating price pressures in Japan, which may prompt the Bank of Japan to raise rates. However, policymakers remain concerned about the economic impacts of Trump’s tariffs. Meanwhile, easing trade tensions between China and the US supported the dollar. -Are you interested in learning about the forex indicators? Click here for details- The yen strengthened briefly on Friday after data revealed that inflation in Tokyo beat estimates. The CPI increased by 3.4%, above forecasts of a 3.2% increase. Moreover, it recorded a massive jump from the previous reading of 2.4%. Accelerating inflation aligns with the BoJ’s recent message of more rate hikes. However, Trump’s tariffs have created uncertainty about the timing of the timing of the next move. On the other hand, the dollar regained its appeal as trade tensions between China and the US eased. Both countries appear ready to lower tariffs and begin negotiations. The US has said it can lower tariffs on Chinese goods to 50%. Meanwhile, China is ready to exempt some US goods from tariffs. A deal to end the trade war would boost the dollar and ease economic worries. Meanwhile, the yen might lose its safe-haven appeal and drop. USD/JPY key events today Traders do not expect any high-impact economic releases from the US or Japan. Therefore, they will keep watching trade war developments. USD/JPY technical price analysis: Channel breakout signals new trend On the technical side, the USD/JPY price has broken out of its bearish channel. Immediately after the breakout, the price pulled back to retest the channel resistance and is now climbing higher. The channel breakout indicates a bullish shift in sentiment. The price now trades above the 30-SMA, and the RSI is above 50. Therefore, the bullish bias is strong. Bears had a strong lead, maintaining a downtrend, with the price mostly below the 30-SMA. However, they could not go past the 140.01 support level. Consequently, bulls took over by pushing the price above the SMA and past the channel resistance. Given the strong bullish bias, USD/JPY could soon retest the 145.02 resistance level. A break above this level will confirm a new uptrend. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/04/25/usd-jpy-price-analysis-inflation-tariffs-complicate-boj-path/
2025-04-25 09:37
The GBP/USD outlook suggests robust consumer spending in the UK. UK consumer confidence plunged in April. The dollar regained its shine amid easing US-China trade tensions. The GBP/USD outlook suggests robust consumer spending in the UK. However, consumer confidence fell sharply in April due to the ongoing global trade wars. Meanwhile, the dollar remained strong as sentiment improved due to easing tensions between China and the US. -Are you interested in learning about the forex indicators? Click here for details- Data released on Friday showed that UK retail sales rose by 0.4%, contrary to initial estimates of a 0.3% decline. The jump was a sign that consumer spending was strong. However, analysts remain cautious about incoming data as they await the impact of Trump’s tariffs on the economy. The BoE governor said on Thursday that he expects a significant impact on growth, particularly from the US-China trade war. A separate report on Friday revealed that consumer confidence plunged in April. This is a sign that consumers are expecting difficult times ahead. Consequently, the pound remained muted. Meanwhile, the dollar regained its shine after reports revealed easing trade tensions between China and the US. On Friday, China announced that it was ready to exempt certain US goods, including medical equipment, from tariffs. On the other hand, top US officials have said they are willing to lower China tariffs to 50% and start negotiations. GBP/USD key events today Market participants do not expect any key releases from the US or the UK. Therefore, they will continue to digest the UK retail sales numbers. GBP/USD technical outlook: Decline pauses to retest the 30-SMA On the technical side, the GBP/USD price is caught between the 30-SMA and the 0.236 Fib retracement level. Bears have the upper hand because the price is below the SMA. Recently, sentiment shifted when the previous uptrend met the 1.3401 resistance. Here, bears overtook bulls and pushed the price below the 30-SMA. The decline paused at the 0.236 Fib, allowing GBP/USD to retest the recently broken SMA. If the SMA holds firm, bears will have to break below the Fib level and the 1.3200 support to confirm a new downtrend. On the other hand, if bulls are stronger, the price will break above the SMA to retest the 1.3401 resistance. A break above this level will strengthen the bullish bias, as it would result in a higher high. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/04/25/gbp-usd-outlook-confidence-slips-despite-up-uk-retail-sales/
