2025-05-26 09:30
The GBP/USD forecast turns positive, marking fresh 39-month top. The US dollar faces pressure due to mounting deficit concerns linked to Trump’s tax bill and coming up rate cuts. Technical outlook is bullish with the pair trading in ascending channel and nearing key resistance. The GBP/USD forecast turns strongly bullish after a corrective pullback. The pair managed to breach the 39-month top amid favorable UK macroeconomic data and growing pressure on the US dollar. The British pound gains traction following stronger than expected UK retail sales data and persistent inflation. The indicators led to speculation that the Bank of England may pause rate cut in the June meeting, aiding to GBP demand. On the other hand, the US dollar stays under notable selling pressure. Political and fiscal uncertainties around “One Beautiful Bill” endorsed by President Trump has thickened the concerns related to inflating fiscal deficit. According to Congressional Budget Office, the bill may widen the deficit by $3.8 trillion due to tax breaks. On top of that, Moody downgraded the US credit rating from AAA to AA1, citing spiraling debt to GDP projections. Meanwhile, the Fed officials have shown cautious tone due to economic uncertainty stemming from tariffs and stagflation risks. The markets are increasingly pricing in rate cuts in 2025. GBP/USD Key Events Ahead Due to US and UK bank holiday, there is no significant economic data or event due today. GBP/USD Technical Forecast: Rising Channel Aiming for 1.4000 The GBP/USD pair remains in a rising channel, indicating strong bullish momentum. The immediate resistance emerges at 1.3600 resistance level while eying 1.3960 – 1.4000 zone as a long-term target. The immediate support appears at 1.3500 psychological level ahead of 9-day EMA at 1.3428, lower band of rising channel at 1.3310. The 14-day RSI is approaching 70 level which indicates overbought scenario. Hence, a short-term correction can occur. If the bulls fail to sustain above 1.3445, the trend could weaken and drag towards 1.3300 to 1.3100 area. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/05/26/gbp-usd-forecast-pound-strengthens-amid-us-deficit-woes/
2025-05-25 14:44
The USD/CAD weekly forecast suggests an increasing likelihood of a BoC pause in June. Traders are pricing a 27% chance of a BoC rate cut at the June meeting. Market participants are worried about the debt situation in the US. The USD/CAD weekly forecast suggests an increasing likelihood of another Bank of Canada pause in June. Ups and downs of USD/CAD The USD/CAD pair had a bearish week as the Canadian dollar strengthened and the US dollar fell. The loonie had a strong week after Canada reported hotter-than-expected inflation numbers. The figures led to a sharp drop in Bank of Canada rate cut expectations. Currently, traders are pricing a 27% chance of a rate cut at the June meeting. Meanwhile, the dollar fell as market participants worried about the debt situation in the US. Moody’s downgraded the country’s credit rating due to its huge debt. Meanwhile, Trump’s policies might add to the already large debt. Next week’s key events for USD/CAD Next week, the US will release key reports showing the state of the economy. These include durable goods orders and the gross domestic product. Moreover, market participants will go through the FOMC meeting minutes for clues on future moves. The previous GDP reading revealed a 0.3% contraction in the economy. A weaker-than-expected reading next week would point to weakness that could pressure the Fed to lower borrowing costs. Moreover, traders will watch Canada’s GDP report, which will also shape the outlook for BoC rate cuts. After this week’s upbeat inflation figures, rate cut expectations have significantly dropped, with a higher likelihood of another pause in June. USD/CAD weekly technical forecast: Bears eye the 1.3400 support On the technical side, the USD/CAD price has broken and closed below the 1.3800 support level, confirming a continuation of the downtrend. At the same time, the price now trades below the 22-SMA with the RSI nearing the oversold region, suggesting a strong bearish bias. Previously, the price was trading in a new downtrend before it paused at the 1.3800 key support level. Here, bearish momentum weekend and price action confirmed that. As a result, bulls emerged to push the price above the 22-SMA. However, the rebound was brief as the price paused at the 1.4000 key psychological level. This allowed bears to return and make a lower low. Given the solid bearish bias, the price might drop to the 1.3400 support level next week. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/05/25/usd-cad-weekly-forecast-markets-brace-for-another-boc-pause/
2025-05-25 14:42
The AUD/USD weekly forecast shows upside potential as the dollar loses ground. Moody’s downgraded the US government’s credit rating on Monday. The RBA lowered interest rates and signaled more to come. The AUD/USD weekly forecast shows upside potential as the dollar loses ground on US fiscal health concerns. Ups and downs of AUD/USD The AUD/USD pair had a bullish week as the dollar fell on US fiscal health concerns. The Australian dollar strengthened despite a rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia. Moody’s downgraded the US government’s credit rating on Monday, citing a growing debt. Furthermore, Trump’s tax bill, which could increase the debt burden, raised concerns about the country’s fiscal health. As a result, the US dollar fell, allowing the Aussie to climb. However, it eased briefly after the RBA lowered interest rates and signaled more to come. Next week’s key events for AUD/USD Next week, market participants will focus on key releases from the US, including durable goods orders, FOMC minutes, and GDP. The durable goods orders and GDP reports will show the state of the economy, shaping the outlook for Fed rate cuts. Traders will focus on the FOMC meeting minutes, which might contain clues on the outlook for Fed rate cuts. Cautious minutes will lower bets for a September rate cut. On the other hand, if policymakers are worried about the economy, bets might increase, weighing on the dollar. AUD/USD weekly technical forecast: Bulls face a solid resistance zone On the technical side, the AUD/USD price is on the verge of breaking above a solid resistance zone comprising the 0.5 Fib retracement and the 0.6500 key psychological level. Previously, the price was trading in a steep downtrend below the 22-SMA. However, the downtrend slowed down after bulls broke above the SMA and prompted a corrective move. However, bears made a last impulsive leg that retested the 0.6003 key support level. From here, bulls emerged and took charge by pushing the price above the 22-SMA. However, the new rally paused when it met the current resistance zone. A break above this zone would strengthen the bullish bias and confirm a new direction. Moreover, it would allow AUD/USD to climb to the next resistance at the 0.6802 level. On the other hand, if the resistance zone holds firm, the price will likely break below the SMA and resume its previous downtrend. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/05/25/aud-usd-weekly-forecast-dollar-weakens-amid-us-debt/
2025-05-23 07:33
The USD/CAD forecast indicates a growing likelihood that Trump’s tax bill will be passed into law. Traders are pricing a 67% chance of a Fed rate cut in September. Market participants are pricing a 27% chance of a BoC rate cut in June. The USD/CAD forecast indicates a growing likelihood that Trump’s tax bill will be passed into law, increasing the US government’s debt and hurting the dollar. Meanwhile, in Canada, BoC rate cut expectations have fallen significantly, supporting the loonie. The US dollar fell on Thursday and Friday after Trump’s tax bill passed through the House of Representatives. This development increased US fiscal health worries, prompting investors to dump US assets. On Monday, Moody’s cut the US government’s credit rating due to its growing debt. The move hurt investor confidence. If Trump’s bill passes, it will increase the government’s debt, further shaking confidence in the economy. Furthermore, the fiscal worries overshadowed a report on Thursday showing an improvement in US business activity. Fed policymakers are still cautiously watching incoming data for signs of weakness after Trump’s tariffs. Downbeat economic data will increase pressure on the central bank to lower borrowing costs. At the moment, traders are pricing a 67% chance of a cut in September. Meanwhile, BoC rate cut bets continued falling after Canada’s hotter-than-expected core inflation figures. Market participants are pricing a 27% chance of a rate cut in June, meaning there is a higher likelihood of a pause. However, policymakers will keep studying incoming data. USD/CAD key events today Canada core retail sales m/m Canada retail sales m/m USD/CAD technical forecast: Bears eye the 1.3800 support level On the technical side, the USD/CAD price has continued its slide after breaking out of its triangle pattern. The price trades well below the 30-SMA, while the RSI is nearing the oversold region. This shows the bearish bias is strong. After the breakout, the price paused its decline to make a lower high. At the moment, bears have returned and are about to break below the previous low. Such a move would strengthen the bearish bias. Moreover, a strong move could push the price below the 1.3800 level, confirming a new downtrend. On the other hand, if the 1.3800 support holds firm, the price might bounce to retest the 1.3900 resistance level. Still, the bearish bias will hold if the price remains below the 30-SMA. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/05/23/usd-cad-forecast-trump-tax-bill-sparks-us-debt-worries/
2025-05-23 06:27
The GBP/USD outlook points north as the pound gains against a weaker dollar. The UK composite PMI increased from 48.5 to 49.4. Fiscal health concerns weighed on the dollar, allowing its peers to climb. The GBP/USD outlook points north as the pound gains against a weaker dollar. Moreover, an improvement in UK business activity in April continued the trend of upbeat data in the country. The greenback remained fragile as US fiscal health concerns weighed. The pound gained on Friday after data in the previous session revealed an improvement in UK business activity. The composite PMI increased from 48.5 to 49.4. Although it remained in contraction, there was an improvement that boosted investor optimism. Earlier in the week, inflation figures came in well above estimates, easing pressure on the BoE to lower borrowing costs. The pound also strengthened as relations between the country and its major trading partners improved. Britain was the first to sign a trade deal with the US. Moreover, the country has reset trade and defense ties with Europe. On the other hand, fiscal health concerns weighed on the dollar, allowing its peers to climb. Since Moody’s downgraded the US government’s credit rating, investor confidence has plunged. Additionally, Trump’s tax bill passed through the House of Representatives. The bill will add to fiscal concerns by increasing the US’s debt burden. However, data showed improving business activity in the US, easing pressure on the Fed to lower borrowing costs. The economy has remained resilient despite Trump’s tariffs. However, policymakers will likely remain cautious. GBP/USD key events today UK retail sales m/m GBP/USD technical outlook: Bulls find their feet after range breakout On the technical side, the GBP/USD price is bouncing higher after retesting a recent breakout level. The price trades above the 30-SMA and the RSI is nearing the overbought region, suggesting a solid bullish bias. GBP/USD was caught in a range between the 1.3251 support and the 1.3401 resistance. During this consolidation, there were many failed attempts to break out and start trending. However, the most recent one looks promising. Bulls pushed the price beyond the range resistance level, pulled back to retest it, and are now seeking new highs. The next target is at the 1.3500 key psychological level. A break above this level will further confirm an uptrend, strengthening the bullish bias. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/05/23/gbp-usd-outlook-pound-rises-on-uk-data-weaker-dollar/
2025-05-22 09:39
The EUR/USD outlook turned slightly bearish on Thursday after Eurozone PMI data. Business activity in the Eurozone crossed below 50 in May. The dollar remained fragile as market participants watched the progress of Trump’s tax bill. The EUR/USD outlook turned slightly bearish on Thursday after data revealed a contraction in Eurozone business activity in May. However, the euro remained near peaks hit in the previous session as the greenback fell on US fiscal worries. Data on Thursday revealed that business activity in the Eurozone crossed below 50 in May, indicating a contraction. The Composite PMI fell from a previous reading of 50.4 to 49.5. The decline came mostly from the services sector. Meanwhile, manufacturing remained stable. The soft data might increase pressure on the European Central Bank to lower interest rates at the next meeting. However, policymakers will keep watching incoming data for further clues on the extent of damage Trump’s tariffs have had on the economy. Meanwhile, the dollar remained fragile as market participants watched the progress of Trump’s tax bill. The US currency has had a difficult week after Moody’s downgraded the US government’s credit rating due to a growing debt. The move weakened investor confidence in US assets. On Wednesday, the US reported a poor Treasury bonds auction, confirming the drop in demand. Trump’s bill is slowly making its way to the Senate. If it is passed, it will increase the US debt burden, further hurting investor confidence. EUR/USD key events today Unemployment Claims Flash Manufacturing PMI Flash Services PMI EUR/USD technical outlook: Price pauses after new high On the technical side, the EUR/USD price has paused its rally after breaking above the 1.1301 key resistance level. Still, it trades well above the SMA with the RSI above 50, supporting a bullish bias. Previously, the price was trading in a downtrend until it got to the 1.1100 key support level. Here, bulls emerged strong enough to push the price above the 30-SMA. After that, they confirmed a bullish reversal by making a higher low and a higher high. However, the rally has slowed down and price action is showing indecision. Most candlesticks have small bodies with wicks. This is a sign that neither bears nor bulls are ready to commit to a strong move. However, given the bullish bias, the price might soon surge to reach the next resistance at 1.1500. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/05/22/eur-usd-outlook-euro-eases-after-soft-eurozone-pmi-data/
