2025-06-23 08:00
The AUD/USD forecast remains subdued amid Middle East chaos. US attacks on Iran provoked Iran to choke Hormuz Strait, deteriorating the risk sentiment. Mixed Aussie data may not prevent RBA to cut further. The AUD/USD forecast slipped as the pair started the week under pressure, posting fresh five-week lows near 0.6400 as geopolitical tensions weighed heavily on the currency. The pair reversed from six month highs near 0.6551, posting three consecutive daily declines. The surging oil prices amid rising global uncertainty following the US military airstrikes on Iran’s three nuclear facilities over the weekend, triggered weakness in the Australian dollar. President Trump confirmed that American B-2 bombers targeted Fordow, Isfahan, and Natanz, in coordination with Israeli forces. Iran responded with a pledge of “everlasting consequence” and approved a measure to choke the Hormuz Strait. This action could disrupt the oil supply and escalate the conflict further. The US dollar benefited from the safe-haven flows while the Aussie was hit hard as a risk barometer currency. Although the Dollar Index (DXY) pared gains and traded near mid-99.00, investors stay cautious due to evolving geopolitical backdrop. On the data front, the Australian economy showed mixed signals. Employment change revealed a loss of 2,500 jobs in May while unemployment figures were steady at 4.1%. The PMI data was positive as composite reading for June ticked to 51.2, suggesting marginal expansion. However, these indicators are not enough to keep Reserve Bank of Australia from cutting rates. The markets have now turned their attention to Australia’s monthly CPI data due Wednesday. This will be the final inflation figure before RBA’s policy meeting in July 8. The headline inflation is expected to tick down to 2.3% y/y from 2.4%. The trimmed mean is anticipated to drop to 2.5%. The markets are now expecting a 25 bps cut in July with 80% probability and more easing is likely to occur later this year if employment and growth data do not show a recovery. Market participants are now eyeing Fed Chair Powell’s 2-day testimony. As Fed held rates steady, it is important to find clues whether the central bank would cut rates in September. Moreover, US PMI data is also important to watch. AUD/USD Technical Forecast: Oversold Aussie Attempting Recovery The AUD/USD 4-hour chart shows a comeback effort after the price tested a support zone near 0.6400. The price broke the trendline support previously, showing a solid bearish trend. Now the broken level at 0.6450 acts as a resistance. Although the price is well below the 20-period SMA, the RSI hit the oversold area and started rising. It means the pair has a potential to recover further. Alternatively, the price could pierce the 0.6400 support. In that case, the Aussie may drift lower towards the next support at 0.6360 ahead of 0.6300. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/06/23/aud-usd-forecast-marked-5-week-lows-amid-middle-east/
2025-06-23 06:34
The USD/CAD outlook is positive amid dollar’s safe-haven demand. Escalating Iran-Israel conflict and rising oil prices support the pair. Diverging economic outlook limits the gains. The USD/CAD outlook gains traction on Monday, posting fifth consecutive winning streak on Monday. The pair moved above the mid-1.3700 area on Monday ahead of European session. The price opened with a significant gap up, following escalated tension in the Middle East that boosted demand for the safe-haven US dollar. The surge came after a dramatic turn in the Israel-Iran conflict. The US entered the fray with military action over the weekend. President Trump confirmed the news via Truth Social that the US forces had successfully hit three nuclear facilities of Iran, aimed at curtailing Tehran’s efforts to develop nuclear weapons. The Dollar Index rallied above 99.00, revealing a strong demand for the greenback amid geopolitical uncertainty. Iran retaliated by threatening to choke the Hormuz Strait which is a strategic waterway. Around 25% oil exports pass through this route. In return, the crude oil soared to a fresh five-month top, lending some support to the Canadian dollar, being a largest oil exporter to the US. Despite the solid bullish tone, the USD/CAD lacks conviction due to diverging economic drivers. Although the safe-haven appeal of dollar supports the pair, the Fed’s resumption of easing policy as soon as September, has tempered the bullish enthusiasm. On the other hand, Canadian dollar finds strength from a stable monetary policy, with diminishing odds of further rate cuts by the Bank of Canada due to persistent inflation. Market participants are now eying the key economic data. Flash global PMIs and oil price dynamics remain pivot for the Loonie’s direction. Moreover, Canada’s inflation data and Fed Chair Powell’s testimony are also important events this week. USD/CAD Technical Outlook: Bullish Momentum Above 1.3728 The 4-hour chart shows a bullish scenario for the pair as it remains well above the 20-period SMA. However, the RSI shows overbought condition as the value hits 70.0. The price broke well above the 1.3728 resistance level. However, it may consolidate above the 1.3750 zone before finding any directional bias. For bulls, the next target is at the resistance level of 1.3860. On the flip side, falling below the 1.3728 level may drag towards the 1.3700 area ahead of 1.3650. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/06/23/usd-cad-outlook-hits-monthly-high-amid-geopolitical-tensions/
2025-06-21 08:30
The GBP/USD weekly forecast is mildly bearish amid central bank divergence. The Middle East crisis continues to weigh on the pound, adding gains to the US dollar. Market participants set eyes on PMI readings and US GDP and inflation data. The British pound managed to partially recover its losses against the US dollar after the pair plunged to the monthly low of 1.3400. The downside came after the dollar picked up strength amid escalating Middle East tension. Moreover, the diverging central bank signals also weighed on the GBP/USD. The week began with the shockwaves coming from the Iran-Israel war that deteriorated the global risk sentiment. The fears of oil supply disruption via the Hormuz Strait triggered a broader risk aversion that pushed safe-haven flows to the US dollar. The dollar’s recovery was further supported by the hawkish Fed tone as the Fed held rates unchanged and reiterated data dependence for the next rate cuts. President Trump maintained an aggressive stance against Iran, calling for unconditional surrender. He approved military action against Iran but kept it on hold for two weeks before taking a decisive action. This temporarily de-escalated the tension and provided some temporary support to the risk assets. This sentiment shift allowed the pound to recover from the monthly lows. Meanwhile, the Bank of England’s dovish tone was already priced in. The central bank held rates on hold at 4.25%, with the BoE governor hinting at future cuts. However, the MPC vote split gave a hawkish signal as six members voted in favor of a hold while three members voted for a cut. Nevertheless, the pound’s recovery was overshadowed by the weaker UK retail sales data that showed a 2.7% decline in May, raising concerns about the UK’s consumer demand. Key Events for the GBP/USD Next Week Looking forward, the traders will primarily focus on central bank commentary and PMI readings from both sides of the Atlantic. The US Core PCE Index, US GDP, and Durable Goods Orders data are also important to watch. GBP/USD Weekly Technical Forecast: Buyers Exhausted Under 20-SMA The GBP/USD daily chart shows a slight bearish scenario as the price remains below the 20-day SMA level. Earlier in the week, the price briefly broke the key support zone at 1.3400 but managed to recover. However, the price tested the 20-day SMA and reversed the gains on Friday. It shows a sign of buyers’ exhaustion. Still, the major support of 1.3400 continues to support the pair. Breaking the 1.3400 level may bring the 1.3340 level as a target ahead of 1.3265. The daily RSI is near 50, showing no clear bias at the moment. However, the probability of a downside breakout is higher. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/06/21/gbp-usd-weekly-forecast-diverging-fed-boe-weighs-on-pound/
2025-06-21 07:52
The EUR/USD weekly forecast is slightly subdued amid risk aversion. A hawkish Fed and Middle East conflict continue to weigh on risk assets. Tariff concerns are mounting as the July 9 deadline looms large. The EUR/USD weekly forecast remains mildly subdued as the week closed with a slight negative change. The US dollar maintained its strength as global risk aversion rose amid the Iran-Israel conflict. The Middle East situation continues to deteriorate the risk sentiment, weighing on risk-sensitive assets. The Iranian regime refused to drop the nuclear program while President Trump allowed two weeks for Iran to come to the negotiations before the decisive US military action. Meanwhile, both countries continue bombing for more than eight days. The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged as anticipated, with a slight hawkish shift in tone that surprised the market. So, the greenback gained ground partially. The Fed Chair Powell noted the inflation is still above targets and the risk of reacceleration also persists amid Trump tariffs. However, he reaffirmed that the central bank will cut rates twice by the end of 2025. Meanwhile, the next rate cut is linked to cooling inflation and labor market data. On the other hand, the European Central Bank’s meeting in June’s first week revealed an end to the easing cycle after delivering eight consecutive rate cuts. President Lagarde said that they are well-positioned and need no more rate cuts. In the last week, different ECB officials hit wires, with some carrying an optimistic tone while some showed concerns about Eurozone growth. On the tariffs front, the looming deadline of July 9 continues to temper the global risk sentiment. The trade negotiations of the US and the Europe remain in air, with no evident progress. President Trump said that Europe is not offering a fair deal. The situation with Japan and Canada is also the same. It means the tariff-related headlines will soon dominate the markets. Key Events for EUR/USD Next Week The next week brings key data from both sides. The PMI readings from the EU and the US are due next week. Moreover, the US Core PCE, an important gauge for inflation, is also due on Friday. Other major events include US GDP and Durable Goods Orders. Apart from these data, some speeches from the ECB and Fed are due too that may provide impetus to the market. EUR/USD Weekly Technical Forecast: Pullback Within Uptrend The EUR/USD daily chart shows a mild pullback from multi-month highs towards the dynamic support of the 20-day SMA. This support is solid enough to keep the bullish trend intact. Meanwhile, the daily RSI is also at the 59.0 level, suggesting an upside bias. Alternatively, closing below the 20-day SMA can gather selling traction. The pair may head to 1.1450 ahead of 1.1400. However, the path of least resistance lies on the upside. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/06/21/eur-usd-weekly-forecast-dollar-gains-ahead-of-eu-us-data/
2025-06-20 08:41
The gold forecast remains subdued after a hawkish Fed. Geopolitical concerns keep the downside limited in gold. Central bank buying and potential US tariff threats support the precious metal. The gold forecast is subdued as the price has slipped below the $3,350 mark on Friday during the earlier European session. The Fed’s hawkish pause continues to weigh on the precious metal. -If you are interested in forex day trading then have a read of our guide to getting started- The Fed’s recent policy reaffirmed two rate cuts by the end of 2025, followed by one in 2026 and one in 2027. The tighter outlook boosted real yields and dimmed the traction of non-yielding assets like gold. Although the gold stays on a track to close the week with losses, the downside may be capped by the broader risk landscape. The growing tension in the Middle East continues to stoke investor anxiety. The probability of US intervention has increased since President Trump announced he would take a decision within two weeks if Iran doesn’t abandon its nuclear program. The G7 leaders and US Senate Intelligence Committee have highlighted the risk of escalation in the region, which could support the safe-haven flows into gold. Another factor limiting the gold’s downside could be the July 9 deadline of tariff imposition, which is injecting fresh uncertainty into the global outlook. The equities are expected to see huge volatility as well that could push investors to seek safety in gold. On the other hand, the US Dollar Index (DXY) slipped from one-week highs after the Fed’s announcement. This has offered a breather to the gold. A weaker dollar is favorable for gold, especially when equities experience high volatility. Moreover, the institutional demand for precious metal remains intact, with 244 tons of gold purchased by the central banks in the first quarter of 2025. This buying could surge beyond 1000 tons by the end of 2025. With Fed remarks, inflation data, and geopolitical concerns, the yellow metal is expected to play within a broad range of $3,200 to $3,400 over the coming months. The price remains supported by safe-haven demand and resilient buying by the institutions. Gold Technical Forecast: Buyers Struggling at Trendline The 4-hour chart of gold shows a favorable scenario for the gold. The price is wobbling around the rising trendline support while staying well below the 20-period SMA. If the price manages to break the support, it may gather more selling traction towards $3,300. The RSI is also well below 50.0 level, indicating more room for a fall. -Are you looking for the best AI Trading Brokers? Check our detailed guide- On the upside, the price stays supported by the trendline; it may jump towards the $3,375 area near the 20-period SMA. The next key level emerges at $3,400, ahead of $3,445. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/06/20/gold-forecast-subdued-post-fed-downside-limited-by-geopolitics/
2025-06-20 08:31
The AUD/USD outlook remains favorable amid eased geopolitical concerns. The Aussie found support amid weaker USD and upbeat Chinese data. Technically, the AUD/USD price finds resistance by 20-SMA and neutral RSI. The AUD/USD outlook improved slightly on Friday amid upbeat Chinese economic data combined with a pullback in the US dollar. However, the broader market sentiment remains cautious due to escalating geopolitical worries in the Middle East. -If you are interested in forex day trading then have a read of our guide to getting started- The Aussie stayed firm after China kept its lending rates unchanged. The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) retained the one-year loan prime rate at 3%, with the five-year rate at 3.5%, as widely expected. The steady response came after China’s retail sales soared to 6.4% y/y in May, beating the estimated 5%. Meanwhile, the industrial production went to 5.8%, slightly below the forecast. The upside for the Australian dollar is limited due to deteriorating risk sentiment, although the Chinese economic indicators are lending support to the commodity-linked currency. The US dollar has gained traction as the Israel-Iran conflict escalates, weighing on the risk assets. According to the New York Times, Iran hasn’t committed to developing a nuclear weapon yet. However, the US military action could provoke it. President Trump’s recent statement regarding an offer to assess two weeks eased risk-off pressure on the markets. Due to this backdrop, the dollar index fell to 98.60, primarily on technical grounds. The Fed’s decision to hold rates steady with a cautious tone about future policy has also capped dollar gains. Fed Chair Powell suggested that the next rate cuts depend on labor market and inflation data. On the other hand, the Australian domestic employment data came in softer than expected, tempering some of the AUD gains. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.1% as expected, while the employment data showed a decrease of 2,500 jobs in May. AUD/USD Technical Outlook: SMA, RSI Resisting Gains The AUD/USD 4-hour chart shows the price remained capped by the 20-period SMA while staying within the trendlines. The last three candles showed a strong upside move as the price hit the oversold RSI zone. However, the RSI value is now under 50.0, and the price action is subdued as well. -Are you looking for the best AI Trading Brokers? Check our detailed guide- The downside seems protected by the 0.6450 area, and staying above the level is a bullish sign. However, breaking the level may lead the price towards 0.6400. On the flip side, 0.6500 could be the key resistance ahead of the 0.6535 level. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/06/20/aud-usd-outlook-rebounds-amid-upbeat-chinese-data/
