2023-11-06 13:14
The bias is bullish as the Dollar Index is bearish. Taking out the resistance levels confirms more gains. The 1.0800 psychological level is seen as a potential target. The EUR/USD price resumed its swing higher. The pair is trading at 1.0749, below today’s high of 1.0756, at press time. Fundamentally, the greenback took a hit from the US economic data on Friday. -Are you looking for forex robots? Check our detailed guide- The NFP came in at 150K in October versus 178K and compared to 297K in September, Average Hourly Earnings rose by 0.2% less compared to the 0.3% growth estimated, Unemployment Rate jumped unexpectedly from 3.8% to 3.9%, while ISM Services PMI dropped to 51.8 points below 53.0 points forecasts. In addition, the Canadian Unemployment Rate and Employment Change also came in worse than expected. DXY’s massive drop weakened the USD. Today, the German Factory Orders increased by 0.2%, even if the traders expected a 1.3% drop, while the German Final Services PMI jumped from 48.0 to 48.2 points. Furthermore, the Eurozone Final Services PMI remained at 47.8 points, while Sentix Investor Confidence printed at -18.6 points compared to -22.2 points estimates. Tomorrow, the German Industrial Production and the Eurozone PPI could have an impact. EUR/USD Price Technical Analysis: Leg Higher Technically, the EUR/USD price extended its rally after jumping above the ascending pitchfork’s median line (ml). It is near the upper median line (uml), representing an upside target and obstacle. -Are you looking for the best CFD broker? Check our detailed guide- The 38.2% retracement level represents a resistance level as well. It remains to see how it reacts around these levels. False breakouts may announce a new sell-off, while a valid breakout activates further growth towards the 1.0800 psychological level and up to the R1 (1.0810). Still, after such an impressive growth, we cannot exclude a temporary retreat. The price could come back to retest the support levels before jumping higher. https://www.forexcrunch.com/eur-usd-price-aiming-for-1-0765-after-downbeat-us-nfp/
2023-11-06 08:51
The dollar index experienced a significant drop of over 1% last week. Treasury yields slumped in response to soft US jobs and manufacturing data. Futures markets now imply a 90% probability that the Fed has completed its rate hikes. As we stepped into the new week, the USD/JPY outlook took a bearish turn, with the yen standing its ground in expectation of another descent in the US dollar’s value. This anticipation gained momentum following a lackluster US jobs report. -Are you looking for forex robots? Check our detailed guide- The dollar index experienced a significant drop of over 1% last week, its most substantial decrease since mid-July, hitting a six-week low. Several factors, including weak US jobs data, softer global manufacturing numbers, and a drop in longer-term Treasury yields, contributed to the dollar’s decline. Consequently, it prompted a yen rally that saw it recover from levels weaker than 150 per dollar. Meanwhile, Treasury yields slumped in response to soft US jobs and manufacturing data. Additionally, the US government reduced its refinancing estimate for the quarter. Futures markets now imply a 90% probability that the Fed has completed its rate hikes. Moreover, there is an 86% chance that the first policy easing will occur as early as June. The shift in the dollar’s direction and the yen’s rebound from last week’s lows suggested that Japanese authorities likely do not need to intervene in the currency market. Notably, the yen reached 151.74 per dollar last week, approaching the lows in October of the previous year. These lows triggered several rounds of dollar-selling intervention by the Bank of Japan. USD/JPY key events today There are no significant events scheduled for today from the US or Japan. As such, investors will likely keep digesting the US NFP report. USD/JPY technical outlook: Yen retreats below key resistance at 150.00. On the technical side, the yen has dropped back below the 150.00 key resistance level. Initially, the price shot up from the 149.00 support level to break above 150.00. However, bulls could only keep the price above this level briefly as bears resurfaced with as much strength to push the price lower. -Are you looking for the best CFD broker? Check our detailed guide- Moreover, the price broke below the 30-SMA as the RSI fell below 50 to support a bearish bias. Consequently, bears are currently in control and are targeting the 149.00 support level. A break below 149.00 will likely confirm a bearish trend. https://www.forexcrunch.com/usd-jpy-outlook-yen-braces-for-gains-after-lackluster-jobs/
2023-11-06 07:55
The BoE emphasized its commitment to keeping rates stable for the foreseeable future. Data revealed a more significant than expected slowdown in US job growth in October. British services businesses experienced a third consecutive month of reduced momentum in October. The GBP/USD forecast remains strongly bullish as it had the best weekly performance in four months, thanks to a combination of factors that boosted sterling’s appeal. This surge followed the Bank of England’s (BoE) decision to maintain interest rates at a 15-year high. Additionally, it emphasized its commitment to keeping rates stable for the foreseeable future. -Are you looking for forex robots? Check our detailed guide- Moreover, the pound rose against the dollar because data revealed a more significant than expected slowdown in US job growth in October. Strikes by the United Auto Workers (UAW) union against Detroit’s “Big Three” car manufacturers suppressed manufacturing payrolls. Additionally, wage inflation cooled, indicating a relaxation in labor market conditions. Notably, the BoE opted to keep borrowing costs unchanged at 5.25%. Furthermore, the central bank released forecasts indicating that the British economy was likely to teeter on the edge of recession and experience flat growth in the upcoming years. Meanwhile, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) released the latest projections and clarified that monetary policy would remain restrictive for an extended period. Moreover, a survey conducted on Friday indicated that British services businesses had experienced a third consecutive month of reduced momentum in October. It added to evidence that the economy was concluding 2023 with weak performance. High interest rates and living costs continued to weigh on demand. GBP/USD key events today The pair might consolidate as no key economic reports will come from the US or the UK today. GBP/USD technical forecast: Bulls aiming for 1.2400 The pound has experienced a strong surge from the 1.2200 key level. Buyers made a strong move that saw the price break above the 1.2303 resistance level. Moreover, the price swung well above the 30-SMA, and the RSI got overbought. It indicates a strong bullish bias. -Are you looking for the best CFD broker? Check our detailed guide- Currently, the price is heading for the next key level at 1.2401. After such a strong move, the price might pause at 1.2401 for a retracement and to allow the SMA to catch up. Moreover, this pause might lead to a retest of the 1.2303. Still, the bullish bias is strong, and if the price stays above 30-SMA, it will soon break above 1.2401. https://www.forexcrunch.com/gbpusd-forecast-biggest-weekly-gain-in-four-months/
2023-11-04 18:28
The pound surged following the Bank of England’s decision to maintain rates. Investors are becoming increasingly convinced that US rates have peaked. The pound got a boost from downbeat US employment figures. The GBP/USD weekly forecast is riding a wave of bullish sentiment as the greenback falters after discouraging employment figures. A weaker dollar sets the stage for a potential surge in the currency pair. Ups and downs of GBP/USD The pound closed the week higher after monetary policy meetings by the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England. The pound surged following the Bank of England’s decision to maintain rates at a 15-year high. Moreover, the bank explicitly ruled out any imminent rate cuts. -Are you looking for forex robots? Check our detailed guide- Meanwhile, despite the uncertainty surrounding US interest rates, investors are increasingly convinced that the peak has been reached. Consequently, Fed funds futures indicate a less than 20% chance of rate hikes in December. This, in turn, is weighing on the dollar. Moreover, the pound got a boost from downbeat US employment figures. The figures suggest that US rates are beginning to impact the labor market. Next week’s key events for GBP/USD In the coming week, the UK will release data on manufacturing production and gross domestic product. Notably, the UK economy has lagged due to the high interest rates meant to fight inflation. Nevertheless, the UK steered clear of recession in the current year. However, the IMF projects it will experience the slowest economic growth among the Group of Seven nations next year. In August, the economy showed a modest growth of 0.2%, following a surprising contraction of 0.5% in July. GBP/USD weekly technical forecast: Price confined by 1.2100 support and 1.2303 resistance. The pound has been stuck in consolidation between the 1.2100 support and the 1.2303 resistance levels. It came after a steep bearish trend that paused at the 1.2100 support. Moreover, throughout the decline, the price respected the 22-SMA as resistance. At the same time, the RSI found resistance at the pivotal 50 level. -Are you looking for the best CFD broker? Check our detailed guide- However, when the price got to the 1.2100 support, bulls got enough strength to puncture the SMA. They have kept doing this, and finally, the price has pushed beyond the 1.2303 resistance level. In the coming week, the price might pull back to retest the 1.2303 as support. If the level holds, the price will bounce higher and likely retest the 1.2603. https://www.forexcrunch.com/gbp-usd-weekly-forecast-dollar-falters-amid-dismal-nfp-data/
2023-11-04 18:27
The Federal Reserve maintained its current interest rates on Wednesday. The US reported weaker-than-expected employment figures. Australia’s central bank might increase its key policy rate by 25 basis points on Tuesday. The AUD/USD weekly forecast radiates optimism as traders eagerly await the RBA’s monetary policy meeting scheduled for Tuesday. A looming rate hike is fueling expectations of an upward trajectory in the currency pair. Ups and downs of AUD/USD Aussie ended the week higher amid increased bets of an RBA rate hike next week. Moreover, dollar weakness helped support the Australian dollar. On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve maintained its current interest rates. Furthermore, there is a big chance that US rates have peaked as rising Treasury yields might do the rest of the job for the Fed. -Are you looking for forex robots? Check our detailed guide- More dollar weakness came on Friday after the US reported weaker-than-expected employment figures. At the same time, the unemployment rate rose, showing a weakening labor market. Next week’s key events for AUD/USD Traders are looking forward to the Reserve Bank of Australia monetary policy meeting on Tuesday. Notably, a Reuters poll found that Australia’s central bank will likely increase its key policy rate by 25 basis points to 4.35% on Tuesday. Last quarter saw inflation exceeding expectations, which took policymakers by surprise. Consequently, financial markets have adjusted their expectations, factoring in one more rate hike from the Reserve Bank of Australia. Economists have anticipated a final rate hike this quarter since August. However, the latest Reuters poll marks the first time in several months where there is almost unanimous consensus among participants regarding the rate increase. AUD/USD weekly technical forecast: Price undergoes significant sentiment shift. On the daily chart, there has been a significant shift in sentiment for AUD/USD as the price has crossed above the 22-SMA. At the same time, the RSI has crossed above 50, a level that has acted as resistance for some time. -Are you looking for the best CFD broker? Check our detailed guide- Notably, the downtrend weakened when the price crossed below the 0.6500 key level. The slope of the downtrend became shallower, and the price stayed close to the 22-SMA. It was a sign that bears had weakened. Finally, the price came to a halt at the 0.6300 support level. It allowed the bulls to take charge by pushing above the SMA. Currently, the price is climbing and challenging the next resistance level at 0.6500. A break above this level would strengthen the bullish bias. https://www.forexcrunch.com/aud-usd-weekly-forecast-markets-brace-for-rba-rate-hike/
2023-11-03 11:03
The US and Canadian data should move the rate today. Its failure to retest the broken uptrend line signaled exhausted buyers. Taking out the minor uptrend line activates more declines. The gold price is trading in the green at $1,989 at the time of writing. The Greenback’s depreciation versus the other major currencies gave a helping hand to the yellow metal. -If you are interested in automated forex trading, check our detailed guide- DXY’s deeper drop helps the XAU/USD buyers to drag it towards new highs. The Greenback remains sluggish after the FOMC. Yesterday, the BOE left its monetary policy unchanged. The USD took a hit from the Unemployment Claims indicator, which came in at 217K the previous week versus the 210K estimated and above 212K in the last week. Today, the US and the Canadian data should bring life to XAU/USD. The US Non-Farm Payrolls are expected to be 178K in October versus 336K in September. Average Hourly Earnings may report a 0.3% growth, the Unemployment Rate could remain at 3.8%, while ISM Services PMI is expected to drop from 53.6 points to 53.0 points. Furthermore, the Canadian Unemployment Rate could jump from 5.5% to 5.6%, while Employment Change is expected at 25.7K, far below 63.8K in September. Better-than-expected data could force the yellow metal to turn to the downside again. As you can see on the hourly chart, the XAU/USD tried to rebound after its strong sell-off. It has failed to come back to test the Rising Wedge’s support (uptrend line), signaling exhausted buyers. In the short term, a bounce back was natural. If you are interested in guaranteed stop-loss forex brokers, check our detailed guide- It remains to see how it reacts after reaching the descending pitchfork’s upper median line (uml) and the weekly pivot point of $1,989. These represent strong upside obstacles. Testing and retesting the resistance levels, registering only false breakouts may announce a new sell-off. Taking out the minor uptrend line and making a new lower low activates a deeper drop. After closing above the $1,992 static resistance, an upside continuation could be confirmed. https://www.forexcrunch.com/gold-price-at-resistance-under-2000-ahead-of-the-us-nfp/
