2023-11-03 09:11

The pound showed resilience following the Bank of England’s decision to hold rates. The BoE signaled no imminent intention of cutting rates. There are concerns about an impending UK economic recession. On Friday, there was bullish sentiment in the GBP/USD price analysis as the British pound stood firm against the dollar. It showed resilience following the Bank of England’s decision to keep interest rates at a 15-year peak. Still, the central bank signaled no imminent intentions of cutting rates. -If you are interested in automated forex trading, check our detailed guide- Moreover, Governor Andrew Bailey cautioned against complacency and emphasized that inflation remained too high. Bailey stated, “We will closely monitor the need for further interest rate hikes. Nevertheless, it is far too early to consider rate reductions.” Still, investors concluded that the subsequent rate adjustment by the BoE was more likely to be a decrease. There are concerns about an impending UK economic recession and limited growth in the near future. However, the BoE reiterated its commitment to keeping borrowing costs elevated. Notably, the UK economy is already grappling with the impact of interest rate increases from December 2021 to August this year. Meanwhile, British government bond yields significantly dropped as the BoE painted a grim economic outlook. In recent days, the European Central Bank and the U.S. Federal Reserve also opted to maintain their current interest rates. Governor Bailey acknowledged the potential inflation risk from elevated energy prices due to the Middle East conflict. However, he noted that such an impact had not materialized thus far. GBP/USD key events today It will be a busy day for GBP/USD traders as they will receive several significant economic reports from the US, like: The US monthly nonfarm payrolls report. ISM non-manufacturing PMI. S&P Global Services PMI GBP/USD technical price analysis: Bulls meet strong resistance at 1.2200. The GBP/USD price has halted at the 1.2200 resistance level after a strong surge from the 1.2100 support level. Notably, the pound has stayed in a range between the 1.2100 support and the 1.2200 resistance level. It attempted to break out of this range but was sharply rejected and fell back into consolidation. If you are interested in guaranteed stop-loss forex brokers, check our detailed guide- Therefore, although the price is above the 30-SMA, supporting bulls, this might soon change. If the 1.2200 resistance holds firm, the price will likely fall back below the 30-SMA to retest the 1.2100 range support. However, if bulls are stronger, the price will rise to 1.2275 resistance. https://www.forexcrunch.com/gbp-usd-price-analysis-pound-holds-steady-after-boes-pause/

2023-11-03 08:16

Last quarter’s inflation beat expectations, prompting financial markets to anticipate one more rate RBA hike. Major Australian banks anticipate a 25 basis point rate increase from the RBA. There was a resurgence in house prices in Australia. The AUD/USD outlook shines bright as a recent Reuters poll illuminated anticipation of a 25 basis point RBA rate rise to 4.35% this Tuesday. Consequently, the bulls are charging confidently ahead. This move is due to unexpectedly strong inflation. -If you are interested in automated forex trading, check our detailed guide- Notably, last quarter’s inflation surpassed expectations. Consequently, it surprised policymakers and prompted financial markets to anticipate one more rate hike from the Reserve Bank of Australia. Furthermore, if this materializes, it will mark the first rate hike under the leadership of Michele Bullock, the governor of the RBA. She has stated that the central bank will raise rates further in the event of a significant upward revision to the inflation outlook. Moreover, major Australian banks anticipate a 25 basis point rate increase from the RBA in the upcoming week. Madeline Dunk, an economist at ANZ, believes that the potential for additional RBA moves is higher. If a hike occurs in November, it is more likely that there will be another rate increase rather than cuts in the near future. Additionally, there was a resurgence of house prices in Australia, approaching previous peaks. It suggests that the RBA’s 400 basis point policy tightening has had a limited impact on the robust property market. However, the expected RBA rate hike contrasts with the wait-and-see approach taken by most of its global counterparts. AUD/USD key events today Investors will keep an eye on key events from the US, including: The nonfarm payrolls report. The US unemployment report. The S&P Global services PMI The ISM non-manufacturing PMI. AUD/USD technical outlook: Market dynamics shift as AUD/USD bulls dominate After moving sideways for a long time, AUD/USD bulls finally took charge. As such, the bias for the pair is now bullish, with the price well above 30-SMA and the RSI above 50. Bulls took control with strong bullish candles that pushed the price above the 0.6400 resistance level. If you are interested in guaranteed stop-loss forex brokers, check our detailed guide- However, this new bullish move has paused at the 0.6450 resistance level, where bears have shown some strength. Bears might push for a retest of the 0.6400 level as support. Nevertheless, a bullish bias will remain if the price stays above the 30-SMA. https://www.forexcrunch.com/aud-usd-outlook-australias-key-policy-rate-set-to-rise/

2023-11-02 10:07

The USD/JPY retreats after the dismal US ADP data. FOMC left rates unchanged with a hint to hike in the next meeting. The technical picture looks gloomy, with more losses towards 150.00 The USD/JPY price slumped on Thursday. The pair stands at 150.41, far below yesterday’s high of 151.68. The profit-taking has triggered a corrective downside. The USD took a hit from the US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, which came in at 113K versus 149K expected, while the ISM Manufacturing PMI dropped from 49.0 to 46.7 points in the last trading session. -If you are interested in automated forex trading, check our detailed guide- The JOLTS Job Openings came in at 9.55M compared to 9.34M, but it has failed to save the greenback from the downside. Also, the Federal Reserve left the Federal Funds Rate at 5.50% as expected but signaled a potential hike in the upcoming meetings if inflationary pressure remains high. Today, the Japanese Monetary Base reported 9.0% growth compared to the 5.9% growth estimated, while the 10-y Bond auction came in at 0.91|3.6. Later, the Bank of England monetary policy meeting could greatly impact all markets. The Official Bank Rate is expected to remain at 5.25%, but BOE Gov. Bailey Speaks could shake the markets. Furthermore, US Unemployment Claims could be reported at 210K again, while Factory Orders may announce a 2.2% growth compared to the 1.2% in the previous reporting period. Technically, the USD/JPY price turned to the downside after failing to take out the upper median line (UML). Also, its failure to stay above the weekly R2 of 151.35 announced exhausted buyers. It has taken out the inside sliding line (SL), which represented dynamic support, signaling more declines. Now, the price has stabilized under the weekly R1 of 150.47. If you are interested in guaranteed stop-loss forex brokers, check our detailed guide- A new lower low activates more declines. The 150.00 psychological level represents a potential target. In addition, the weekly pivot point of 149.89 and the median line (ml) of the descending pitchfork are seen as downside targets. A larger drop could be activated only after taking out these obstacles. https://www.forexcrunch.com/usd-jpy-price-aiming-to-test-150-0-after-dismal-adp/

2023-11-02 09:46

There is growing optimism regarding the potential peak in US interest rates. There is less than a 20% likelihood of a Fed rate increase in December. In October, US manufacturing experienced a sharp contraction. On Thursday, the EUR/USD outlook painted a promising picture with a bullish stance, with the dollar’s weakening as a key factor. There is growing optimism regarding the potential peak in US interest rates. This sentiment followed the Federal Reserve’s decision to keep rates unchanged. -If you are interested in automated forex trading, check our detailed guide- Fed Chair Jerome Powell mentioned the possibility of another rate hike. However, he also stated that the risks of being too aggressive or too cautious were now balanced, with the funds rate target reaching a 22-year high of 5.5%. Consequently, the markets perceive it as a signal to maintain a less than 20% likelihood of a rate increase in December. Meanwhile, ten-year Treasury yields declined by 20 basis points from their highs on Wednesday. IG Markets analyst Tony Sycamore noted the shift in sentiment, saying, “Compared to the previous FOMC meeting, the current stance is more balanced and cautious.” Moreover, traders gained confidence that US interest rates might have peaked when data revealed a significant contraction in US manufacturing in October. Notably, US manufacturing experienced a sharp contraction after showing signs of improvement in prior months, with new orders and employment declining. However, US job openings increased in September, indicating ongoing labor market tightness. Elsewhere, European Central Bank policymakers are reviewing the interest rates offered on government cash deposits, considering a potential reduction. This move is aimed at mitigating the mounting losses resulting from their efforts to combat inflation. EUR/USD key events today Investors will receive one key report from the US, The initial jobless claims report. EUR/USD technical outlook: Bulls push for a 1.0600 resistance break. The EUR/USD has recovered after finding support at the 1.0525 level. The price still lacks direction as it chops through the 30-SMA. However, on a smaller scale, bulls are in control as the price sits above the SMA and the RSI above 50. If you are interested in guaranteed stop-loss forex brokers, check our detailed guide- This bullish move has paused at the 1.0600 key level. Given the recent choppiness, bears might emerge at this level to push the price down to the 1.0525 support. However, if bulls hold, the price will likely break above the 1.0600 resistance level. It would then likely retest the 1.0675 resistance level. https://www.forexcrunch.com/eur-usd-outlook-optimism-swells-as-us-rates-approach-peak/

2023-11-02 09:18

The BOJ tiptoed away from its longstanding monetary stimulus program. The yen depreciated by approximately 0.8%. The dollar continued to be supported by the possibility of another Fed rate hike. The USD/JPY outlook is optimistic today, driven by the yen’s decline, which finds itself skimming the depths of a one-year low against the dollar. This change in fortune unfolded when the Bank of Japan (BOJ) tiptoed away from its longstanding monetary stimulus program. However, this cautious approach has left some investors yearning for more substantial measures. Notably, the BOJ announced its commitment to maintaining the 10-year government bond yield near 0%. However, they redefined 1.0% as a loose “upper bound” rather than a rigid cap. Furthermore, they eliminated their pledge to defend this level by buying an unlimited amount of bonds. Some analysts considered this a slow end to the BOJ’s controversial YCC regime. Still, the yen fell by nearly 0.8%, surpassing the 150 per dollar mark and reaching an intraday low of 150.26. The yen’s weakening had been anticipated, partly due to a Nikkei report on Monday suggesting that the BOJ might allow 10-year JGB yields to exceed 1%. Norihiro Yamaguchi, senior economist at Oxford Economics, stated, “The market had already priced in today’s decision due to the Nikkei article. Some had expected a complete elimination of YCC, which did not occur.” Meanwhile, the US dollar showed broad strength. The index appeared poised to end the month with minimal changes. Nonetheless, analysts pointed out that the dollar continued to be supported by the possibility of another Fed rate hike. It reflects the ongoing resilience of the US economy. USD/JPY key events today Investors expect one significant report from the US, The CB consumer confidence report. USD/JPY technical outlook: Bearish sentiment flips to bullish. USD/JPY 4-hour chart The USD/JPY price dipped to the 149.00 support level before pulling back sharply. Moreover, the sharp reversal broke above the 30-SMA and the key 150.00 resistance level. Similarly, the RSI dipped to near oversold levels before returning to trade in bullish territory. These moves indicate a sudden shift in market sentiment from bearish to bullish. However, for this shift to lead to a bullish trend, the price must start making higher highs and lows. That means a break above the 150.75 resistance level. Otherwise, the price might start a period of consolidation near the 150.00 key level. https://www.forexcrunch.com/usd-jpy-outlook-yen-slides-amid-boj-policy-shift/

2023-11-02 09:17

The dollar appears likely to end the month flat. Traders are anticipating the Bank of England’s (BoE) upcoming meeting on Thursday. British lenders approved the fewest home loans since January in September. The GBP/USD price analysis hints bullishness as the pound secured gains on Tuesday. The backdrop for this positive move was the dollar, which took a breather in anticipation of the upcoming FOMC meeting. The dollar appears likely to end the month flat. However, analysts highlight that the potential for another interest rate increase from the Federal Reserve is supporting the dollar. Moreover, they note the enduring strength of the US economy. On Monday, the pound remained relatively stable against the dollar. Traders were anticipating the Bank of England’s (BoE) upcoming meeting on Thursday, where it will likely keep rates unchanged. Notably, the British pound has struggled in currency markets recently due to diminishing risk appetite. This is due to stock market turbulence and conflict in the Middle East. Moreover, currency analysts have pointed out that deteriorating UK economic indicators have reinforced expectations that the BoE will maintain current rates. Elsewhere, BoE data released on Monday revealed that British lenders approved the fewest home loans since January in September. It signals a sluggish property market. Meanwhile, MUFG currency analysts noted that the BoE was probably at the peak of its rate-tightening cycle. Therefore, the focus will shift to “communication regarding the potential shift toward a more dovish stance in the upcoming meetings.” The analysts suggested that a significant shift was not imminent. Still, they acknowledged that most data released since the last meeting in September indicated weak economic activity. GBP/USD key events today With no significant reports coming from the UK, traders will focus on US releases, including: CB consumer confidence for October. GBP/USD technical price analysis: Price rebounds from 30-SMA support. GBP/USD 4-hour chart The GBP/USD pair is bouncing higher after retesting the 30-SMA support. At the same time, the RSI is pushing off the pivotal 50 level moving toward the overbought level. This move follows a failed attempt to break below the 1.2100 support level. Bulls took control by engulfing the candle from the 1.2100 support and breaking above the 30-SMA resistance. Moreover, they are now targeting the next resistance at 1.2200. A break above 1.2200 would strengthen the bullish bias. Furthermore, it would clear the path to retest the 1.2276 resistance. https://www.forexcrunch.com/gbp-usd-price-analysis-dollar-pauses-ahead-of-fomc/