2025-06-19 09:06
USD/CAD outlook improves as it trades above 1.37, lifted by safe-haven flows. Fed’s cautious stance on inflation reinforces support for the dollar, but policy uncertainty persists. CAD gains limit upside as rising oil prices offer some counterbalance to USD strength. The USD/CAD outlook remains mildly positive as the pair extended its upside for the third consecutive session on Thursday. The pair is hovering above 1.3700, at the time of writing. The recent bullish move is attributed to the Fed’s cautious tone supported by the safe-haven flows to the dollar amid geopolitical worries. -If you are interested in forex day trading then have a read of our guide to getting started- Geopolitical risks are escalating as Iran-Israel conflict has already dampened the risk sentiment. US President’s aggressive stance against Iran has intensified situation as the fear of US military intervention have surged. These developments have given strength to the US dollar, as a safe-haven asset, pushing the US dollar index above 99.00 mark. Moreover, the Federal Reserve’s recent policy meeting kept interest rates on hold at 4.25% – 4.50%, as expected. However, the Fed Chair came up with a cautious tone, acknowledging that the inflation is still above their targets. Hence, the rate cut primarily depends on how labor markets perform and if the declining trend in the inflation sustains, given the Trump tariffs could potentially reaccelerate the inflation. The Fed Chair also reiterated that the central bank is expected to deliver two rate cuts by end of 2025. On the other side of equation, the Canadian dollar’s downside is limited amid stronger crude oil prices. The WTI prices tested $75.00 level near 5-month highs before slipping a little. Also, the fear of oil supply disruptions loom large as Iran could seize the Hormuz Strait. USD/CAD Technical Outlook: Bullish Above 1.3700 The USD/CAD 4-hour chart shows a test of resistance at 1.3728 followed by a mild retreat. However, the price remains well above the 20-period SMA which is a positive sign for the pair. The RSI value is near the overbought area which indicates the price may consolidate around current levels and profit taking could be observed as well. -Are you looking for the best AI Trading Brokers? Check our detailed guide- If the pair manages to find acceptance above 1.3700 area, it may look to test 1.3800 ahead of 1.3850. On the flip side, if the selling pressure mounts and price breaks the 1.3700 barrier, it may drift back to 1.3650 ahead of 1.3600. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/06/19/usd-cad-outlook-improves-amid-geopolitical-risk-cautious-fed/
2025-06-19 07:35
The GBP/USD forecast is bearish amid a hawkish Fed. Geopolitical concerns continue to weigh on the pound. Markets are now awaiting BoE policy decision and statement. The GBP/USD forecast has turned slightly bearish after staying subdued for the third consecutive session. The pair is trading around 1.3415, at the time of writing. -If you are interested in forex day trading then have a read of our guide to getting started- The British pound is struggling as the US dollar demand rises due to safe-haven flows stemming from Iran-Israel conflict. On the other hand, FOMC meeting surprised the markets with a hawkish tilt. Now, the market participants await Bank of England policy meeting and statement, due later today. On Wednesday, the GBP/USD pair found a mild support after the UK CPI print came better than expected. However, the inflation is still ticking down. That’s why the pound could not capitalize on the move. The last week’s dismal GDP and employment data continue to add pressure on the Bank of England to retain the easing policy. On the geopolitics front, the Iran-Israel war has entered the seventh day. According to Bloomberg report, the US officials are preparing to attack Iran in the coming days. Another report from Wall Street Journal also claimed that the US President had approved attacks on Iran on Tuesday but he wanted to see if Iran would abandon its nuclear program. Moreover, the Greenback found additional support from the Fed Chair Powell’s comments. He signaled that the inflation is still somehow above their targets and could rise again in near future due to Trump tariffs. Powell also supported currency policy program, leaving them well positioned. He reiterated that the Fed will hold rates and cuts will depend primarily on the inflation and labor data. The FOMC kept the rates unchanged at 4.25% – 4.50%, as widely anticipated. The central bank still expects a 50 bps cut by the end of 2025. GBP/USD Technical Forecast: Sellers Pause at 1.3400 The GBP/USD 4-hour chart shows a mild support around 1.3400. However, the previously broken support at 1.3418 now acts as a resistance. If the price holds around current resistance, it may fall towards the next support at 1.3340. The RSI is near the oversold area which indicates the pair may see some buying. -Are you looking for the best AI Trading Brokers? Check our detailed guide- However, the price staying below the 20-period SMA shows the bears are in control for now. The markets may consolidate around the current levels before finding any directional bias. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/06/19/gbp-usd-forecast-sellers-testing-1-34-after-hawkish-fed/
2025-06-18 10:03
Gold price remains consolidating under $3,400 as markets await the FOMC meeting. The Fed’s economic projection and dot plot are key to watch. Geopolitical concerns and a stronger dollar may keep the momentum neutral. Gold price stays under pressure, trading at $3,383, at the time of writing, during the London session. Market participants are anxiously waiting for the Fed’s highly anticipated policy decision today. The precious metal that hit the fresh 2-month top, earlier this week. However, it is now cautious amid geopolitical worries and weaker US data. -If you are interested in forex day trading then have a read of our guide to getting started- Market participants are widely anticipating the Fed to hold rates. However, the focus has been shifted to updated economic projections and the dot plot. Expectations split between one and two rate cuts by 2025 while the tone and language of the Fed could drive the dollar and gold prices. Although the risk of a hawkish tilt exists amid tariff concerns and oil-led inflation, the weaker economic data supports the case for a dovish tone. The US inflation appears to ease, with CPI and PPI figures came in softer than expected which aligns with the Fed’s target of 2%. The odds for a shift of policy by September have been raised. Markets are currently pricing in the 50 bps rate cut by the end of 2025, while real yields are also slipping, expecting a dovish lean. If the Fed confirms this trajectory, gold may rally towards the all-time highs. On the other hand, geopolitical situation in the Middle East stays elevated. Iran-Israel conflict continues on the sixth day while Trump’s aggressive stance has also fueled the safe-haven demand. Despite this, a strong dollar keeps the gains limited. Gold Price Technical Outlook: Sideways Move Under 20-SMA The 4-hour chart shows a consolidation below the $3,400 mark. The price stays under the key 20-period SMA which signals a short-term weakness. The RSI is also sideways near the 50.0 level, suggesting a neutral outlook. The support area lies around $3,340 ahead of $3,300. -Are you looking for the best AI Trading Brokers? Check our detailed guide- On the upside, finding acceptance above 20-period SMA and the $3,400 level is important to resume the uptrend. A sustained breakout may look to test $3,440 ahead of all-time highs at $3,500. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/06/18/gold-price-below-3400-as-fomc-looms-amid-geopolitical-risk/
2025-06-18 09:10
The GBP/USD outlook remains neutral amid the Middle East crisis. The UK CPI data came upbeat, lending mild support to the pound. Markets now focus on FOMC and BoE policy guidance. The GBP/USD outlook improved slightly on Wednesday as the UK CPI met expectations, showing a rise in food inflation. However, the pair lost more than 1% in the last session to 1.3415, as the US President threatened Iran for an unconditional surrender. -If you are interested in forex day trading then have a read of our guide to getting started- The UK Office for National Statistics released the CPI data ahead of the London session, showing the headline inflation rise to 3.4% y/y in May, compared to 3.5% in April. The reading matched market expectations. The Core CPI excluding food and energy prices rose to 3.5% y/y against the previous reading of 3.8% and expected 3.6%. Meanwhile, the monthly CPI figures eased to 0.2% in May from the previous 1.2%. Market projection was a rise of 0.2%. The pound reacted positively to the data amid mixed inflation data. In Tuesday’s New York session, the GBP/USD saw a slump of more than a hundred pips as the Middle East crisis reignited after Trump asked Iran for a surrender. This created a fear of America’s involvement in the Iran-Israel war. The safe-haven flows towards the US dollar weakened the pound. However, despite continued attacks from both sides, Iran has urged Oman, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia to convince the US President to call for an immediate ceasefire. Key Events Ahead Traders face increased volatility risk as the FOMC interest rate decision looms today. Markets expect the Fed to keep the policy rates unchanged at 4.25% – 4.50%, while two cuts priced for 2025. The dollar’s directional bias remains dependent on Fed guidance as the speculations surge that the Fed may cut 25 bps once due to tariff concerns and oil-led inflation risk. However, last week’s softer inflation data casts doubts on a hawkish shift. Tomorrow, the Bank of England rate decision is due as well. The central bank is expected to retain the rates. However, the vote split is important to watch. GBP/USD Technical Outlook: Key Support in Play The 4-hour chart shows a bearish tilt as the price broke below the 20-period SMA and key support at 1.3460, marking fresh monthly lows to test the key support at 1.3415. As long as the support holds, the price may attempt another rally beyond the 1.3500 area. However, if the support breaks, the pair may slip towards 1.3340 ahead of 1.3300. -Are you looking for the best AI Trading Brokers? Check our detailed guide- The RSI has hit the oversold area and started rising. It means a mild support for the pair. Any upside will meet strong resistance at a previously broken support level of 1.3475 ahead of 1.3500. Finding acceptance above 1.3500 may gather buying traction again. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/06/18/gbp-usd-outlook-better-cpi-boosts-pound-ahead-of-fomc/
2025-06-17 10:20
The EUR/USD forecast is bullish despite a pause in the uptrend. SocGen aims for a quicker test of 1.2000 amid US tariffs and a dovish Fed. Geopolitical tensions and the FOMC meeting are key stimuli for the markets to watch. The EUR/USD forecast remains firm around the mid-1.1500 after testing the multi-month top at 1.1632. However, the pair came under pressure as the Middle East crisis reemerged on Tuesday after hopes of de-escalation fade out. -If you are interested in forex day trading then have a read of our guide to getting started- According to SocGen, the EUR/USD is resilient despite the recent global shocks, which shows the pair is underpinned primarily due to structural weakening of the US dollar. Hence, the price may test the 1.2000 level faster than expected. President Trump’s imposed tariffs on key trade partners have refueled the fears of a global trade war. The news, paired with the worsening Middle East conflict, triggered a wave of risk aversion. However, the Greenback could not perform as it used to during crises. The dollar index is at 3-year lows near 98.00, which suggests the currency sees a diminishing interest in the dollar’s safe-haven status. Investors are now looking at the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision due on Wednesday. The Fed is widely expected to hold the rates. However, the economic projections are important to watch along with the dot plot, which could add further pressure on the US dollar, especially when the outlook is weak and inflation shows cooling signs. On the data front, the European ZEW Economic Sentiment Index data could not leave any impact on the pair. The macro narrative is largely driven by the US trade policies, global risk events, and the Fed’s monetary policy guidance. Against this backdrop, the EUR/USD stays comfortably above the 1.1500 mark, suggesting a sentiment shift in favor of the Euro. EUR/USD Technical Forecast: Consolidation Before a Breakout The EUR/USD price remains consolidating in a small symmetrical triangle above the 1.1550 area. The pair is now wobbling around the 20-period SMA on the 4-hour chart. The pair shows a slight pause in the bullish momentum. A breakout above 1.1600 would confirm an upside continuation towards 1.1650 to 1.1700. Although the RSI value is above 50, it’s moving sideways, suggesting a choppy move and lacking any impetus. -Are you looking for the best AI Trading Brokers? Check our detailed guide- On the downside, the pair seems well supported by the 1.1500 figure. Breaking the level may attract more sellers and push towards 1.1400. Overall, the 1.1500 area remains a pivot point for the pair. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/06/17/eur-usd-forecast-upside-intact-despite-geopolitical-risks/
2025-06-17 06:44
The USD/JPY outlook remains mildly positive after the Bank of Japan leaves rates unchanged. Analysts believe the upside may be capped by 145.50, observing a ranging behavior. Geopolitics could boost yen demand amid safe-haven flows. The USD/JPY outlook remains slightly supported as the pair snapped a two-day winning streak after the Bank of Japan left the policy rate unchanged at 0.50%. Earlier this week, the pair saw a rise amid safe-haven flows triggered by the Middle East crisis. -If you are interested in forex day trading then have a read of our guide to getting started- However, the yen bulls may struggle to find a meaningful trend as the Bank of Japan could postpone the rate hikes to the first quarter of 2026 due to tariff uncertainty. In the G7 meeting, the US and Japan could not reach an agreement on the tariffs. Japan’s Finance Minister Kato also stated that they have no plan to meet US Treasury Secretary Bessent. This is another factor that could cap yen’s gains. The US plans to impose 25% tariffs on Japanese vehicles and 24% tariffs on other imports. According to the UOB analysts, the USD/JPY price may remain within a familiar range of 143.50 to 145.50 with the least probability of breaking the level. On the other hand, the US dollar remains significantly weak amid last week’s dismal inflation figures. Moreover, the tariff uncertainty continues to linger, giving no room to recover. The currency is gradually losing its safe-haven status as well. Given the recent geopolitics, gold, and yen tend to perform way better than the dollar. On the geopolitical front, the Iran-Israel conflict enters the fifth day with both sides aggressively attack. President Trump warned Iranians through Truth Social post to evacuate Tehran. A White House official clarified that the purpose of the post was to show urgency to bring Iran to the table for talks. Investors are cautious as we head towards the FOMC meeting due tomorrow. The Federal Reserve is widely expected to keep rates on hold. However, the monetary policy statement is important to watch as market participants are keen about the policy path and number of cuts in 2025. Key Events for USD/JPY Ahead Core Retail Sales m/m Retail Sales m/m The core retail sales are expected to grow, while the retail sales may show a contraction. USD/JPY Technical Outlook: Bullish Pinbar, Rising Trendline The 4-hour chart shows a bullish pinbar and a rising trendline, lending enough support to the pair. Moreover, the price stays well above the 20-period SMA, which is another bullish sign. The RSI is at 56.0, heading north. These factors reveal that the buyers are mildly dominating. The immediate resistance comes at 145.00 ahead of 145.50. -Are you looking for the best AI Trading Brokers? Check our detailed guide- On the flip side, the close below the 20-period SMA could ignite the selling pressure leading towards a support at 144.00 ahead of 143.50. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/06/17/usd-jpy-outlook-yen-recovers-as-boj-holds-rates/
