2024-10-11 10:27
The UK economy expanded by 0.2%, coming in line with economists forecasts. The CPI report in the US revealed that inflation was higher than expected in September. US unemployment claims rose more than expected, indicating a weaker labor market. The GBP/USD price analysis shows a small rebound in the pound after data revealed growth in the UK economy. Meanwhile, the dollar hovered near yesterday’s peaks after inflation numbers came in higher than expected. –Are you interested to learn more about day trading brokers? Check our detailed guide- Data on Friday revealed that the UK economy expanded by 0.2%, coming in line with economists forecasts. However, investors maintained bets for a Bank of England rate cut during the November meeting. Meanwhile, the CPI report in the US revealed that inflation was higher than expected in September. On a monthly basis, consumer prices increased by 0.2%, above forecasts of 0.1%. Meanwhile, annually, prices increased by 2.4%, above estimates of 2.3%. The unexpected jump led to a decline in Fed rate cut expectations, boosting the US dollar. However, unemployment claims rose more than expected, indicating a weaker labor market. The mix of data put bets for a 25-bps November Fed rate cut at 80%. At the same time, market participants are pricing a 20% chance that the Fed will keep rates unchanged. The next major report will be the Producer Price Index. Economists expect wholesale inflation to increase by 0.1%, down from 0.2% in August. If wholesale inflation also beats forecasts, rate cut expectations will keep falling. Meanwhile, markets are paying close attention to Middle East tensions. The likelihood of a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah eased fears of escalation. However, there is still a risk of retaliation after Iran attacked Israel. GBP/USD key events today US Core PPI m/m US PPI m/m GBP/USD technical price analysis: Bearish momentum fades near 1.3051 support On the technical side, the GBP/USD price remains in a tight consolidation near the 1.3051 support level. The bias is bearish because the price sits slightly below the 30-SMA. At the same time, the RSI trades below 50, supporting bearish momentum. -Are you looking for the best AI Trading Brokers? Check our detailed guide- However, the RSI has made a bullish divergence, indicating weakness in the downtrend. If it plays out, the price might break above the 30-SMA, showing a bullish reversal. A break above the SMA would allow GBP/USD to revisit the 1.3201 level. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/10/11/gbp-usd-price-analysis-uk-gdp-growth-sparks-rebound/
2024-10-11 09:15
Data on Thursday showed that inflation jumped more than expected in September. US unemployment claims increased to 258,000 compared to estimates of 230,000. Canada’s economy might add 29,800 jobs, an increase from the previous 22,100. The USD/CAD outlook shows a strong rally in the pair as the dollar shines amid upbeat economic data. At the same time, Fed rate cut expectations are slowly dropping, introducing the likelihood of a pause in November. Meanwhile, CAD remained fragile ahead of crucial domestic employment figures. –Are you interested to learn more about day trading brokers? Check our detailed guide- The US dollar has regained its attractiveness in recent weeks due to better-than-expected economic data. A resilient economy has pushed investors to slash bets for a rate cut at the November Fed meeting. For instance, data on Thursday showed that inflation jumped more than expected in September. The monthly figure rose by 0.2%, above estimates of 0.1%. Meanwhile, the annual figure increased by 2.4%, while economists had expected a 2.3% increase. However, a separate report revealed weaker labor market conditions. Notably, unemployment claims increased to 258,000 compared to estimates of 230,000. Nevertheless, by the end of the day, market participants were pricing a higher 20% chance of a Fed pause in November. The US economy has shown resilience at a time when most had expected deterioration. If this trend continues, the Fed will likely achieve a soft landing. However, this can only happen if inflation continues dropping to the 2% target. Meanwhile, the Canadian dollar fell against the dollar despite recent rallies in oil. Markets are awaiting Canada’s monthly employment figures. According to forecasts, the economy might add 29,800 jobs, an increase from the previous 22,100. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate might increase from 6.6% to 6.7%. USD/CAD key events today US Core PPI m/m US PPI m/m USD/CAD technical outlook: Strong rally eying 1.3800 resistance On the technical side, the USD/CAD price has skyrocketed to new highs, breaking past key resistance levels. The climb has placed the price well above the 30-SMA, supporting a strong uptrend. At the same time, the RSI trades in the overbought region, indicating solid bullish momentum. Moreover, the price has risen without significant pullbacks to retest the 30-SMA. This is a sign that the uptrend is steep. -Are you looking for the best AI Trading Brokers? Check our detailed guide- Given the strong bullish bias, the price might soon reach the 1.3800 resistance level. However, since it is overbought, it might pause and pull back before continuing the uptrend. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/10/11/usd-cad-outlook-upbeat-us-cpi-sparks-strong-rally/
2024-10-10 09:42
The US will release a crucial economic report showing the state of inflation. US price pressures might increase by 2.3%, below the previous month’s 2.5% increase. Signs that the Israel-Hezbollah war would end in a ceasefire agreement weighed on gold. The gold outlook indicates a slight price rebound from recent lows as market participants prepare for the US CPI report. Gold reached a new low on Tuesday as the probability of a ceasefire in the war between Israel and Hezbollah reduced demand for safe-haven assets. –Are you interested to learn more about day trading brokers? Check our detailed guide- On Thursday, the US will release a crucial economic report showing the state of inflation in September. According to forecasts, price pressures increased by 2.3%, below the previous month’s 2.5% increase. Meanwhile, the monthly figure might come in at 0.1%, a drop from August’s 0.2%. The inflation report will continue shaping the outlook for the next Fed policy moves. Currently, markets are pricing an 85% chance that the US central bank will lower borrowing costs by 25-bps. This is a big drop from a few weeks ago when traders expected another massive cut. As a result, gold has fallen with the prospects of a gradual easing cycle. Meanwhile, the FOMC minutes showed agreement with the massive rate cut in September. However, these views came well before the blockbuster September jobs report. Employment figures showed a resilient labor market, easing pressure on the Fed to lower borrowing costs. Meanwhile, there were signs that the Israel-Hezbollah war would end in a ceasefire agreement. Middle East tensions have kept a steady flow of cash to the safe-haven yellow metal. Therefore, any signs that tensions might ease weigh on prices. Gold key events today US core CPI m/m US CPI m/m US CPI y/y US unemployment claims Gold technical outlook: Bears make new low below 2625.58 On the technical side, gold has broken below the 2625.58 support level with a massive candle. At the same time, it trades below the 30-SMA with the RSI in bearish territory. Therefore, gold’s trend has reversed from bullish to bearish. -Are you looking for the best AI Trading Brokers? Check our detailed guide- However, it is still too early to say whether the downtrend will continue. Bears must start making lower highs and lows to confirm a downtrend. For now, the price might revisit the 2625.58 level before continuing lower or breaking above the SMA. A downtrend would allow the price to reach the 2550.44 support level. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/10/10/gold-outlook-gold-edges-higher-as-traders-brace-for-us-cpi/
2024-10-10 08:58
The bullish trend for USD/JPY continued at a slower pace. Market participants slashed bets for a 50-bps November Fed rate cut. Economists expect inflation to ease from 2.5% to 2.3%. The USD/JPY forecast shows dark clouds gathering over the recent bullish trend as market participants await the all-important US CPI report. Still, after rallying on lower Fed rate cut expectations, the dollar hovered near a ten-week high against the yen. –Are you interested to learn more about day trading brokers? Check our detailed guide- The bullish trend for USD/JPY continued at a slower pace ahead of crucial US inflation data. Initially, a robust rally followed data showing a resilient labor market. The US nonfarm payrolls report showed an unexpected jump in job growth in September. At the same time, unemployment eased. As a result, market participants slashed bets for a 50-bps November Fed rate cut. Before the jobs report, Powell had changed his tone to slightly hawkish. He suggested two more quarter-point rate cuts in 2024. However, before that, policymakers were quite dovish, leading to the massive September rate cut. As a result, the FOMC meeting minutes showed agreement with the super-sized rate cut. However, it was outdated since it came well before the blockbuster jobs report. Currently, market participants are pricing an 85% chance of a 25-bps rate cut in November. However, this outlook might shift further with the upcoming US CPI report. Economists expect inflation to ease from 2.5% to 2.3%. Meanwhile, the monthly figure might increase by 0.1% after a 0.2% increase in August. The outlook for Fed rate cuts might shift significantly if inflation spikes well above estimates. On the other hand, easing price pressures will support another rate cut in November. USD/JPY key events today US core CPI m/m US CPI m/m US CPI y/y US unemployment claims USD/JPY technical forecast: RSI signals fading bullish enthusiasm On the technical side, the USD/JPY price has rallied to a new peak. It trades well above the 30-SMA with the RSI above 50, supporting a bullish bias. However, price action has shifted from massive green candles to mall ones. This could indicate fading strength for bulls. -Are you looking for the best AI Trading Brokers? Check our detailed guide- At the same time, the RSI has made a bearish divergence with the price, showing fading momentum. Therefore, bears might be ready to take charge. If the price breaks below its bullish trendline, it might fall to the 30-SMA or lower. Otherwise, bulls might continue making higher highs. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/10/10/usd-jpy-forecast-bullish-optimism-fades-ahead-of-cpi-data/
2024-10-09 12:34
Traders are still digesting last week’s events BoE Governor Andrew Bailey said the central bank might pivot to aggressive cuts. The US NFP report revealed an unexpected 254,000 new jobs in September. The GBP/USD forecast shows a period of consolidation after the recent slide to new lows. The pound remained weak after dovish BoE remarks last week. On the other hand, the dollar paused, holding on to gains made after an upbeat US NFP report. –Are you interested to learn more about day trading brokers? Check our detailed guide- Market participants were calm on Wednesday as prices paused in a slow start to the week. Consequently, traders were still digesting last week’s events, which pressured the pound and boosted the dollar. Last week, economic data and policymaker remarks pointed to an aggressive BoE and a gradual Fed. Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey said the central bank might pivot to aggressive cuts depending on future inflation figures. Meanwhile, most US economic reports last week showed a resilient economy. The biggest catalyst came on Friday when the NFP report revealed an unexpected 254,000 new jobs in September. Moreover, the unemployment rate eased to 4.1%. Consequently, market participants slashed bets for a November rate cut, with futures suggesting a 25-bps rate cut. The dollar rallied to a seven-week high, weighing on its peers like the pound. This week, the UK and the US will release more economic data that will continue shaping the outlook for rate cuts. Notably, traders will watch the UK GDP report on Friday, highlighting growth. Weaker-than-expected growth could put more pressure on the BoE to cut rates. Meanwhile, in the US, the FOMC minutes and the CPI report might contain clues on the Fed’s next policy moves. GBP/USD key events today FOMC Meeting Minutes GBP/USD technical forecast: Bears show exhaustion after sharp decline On the technical side, the GBP/USD price is in a tight consolidation, slightly above the 1.3051 support level. Meanwhile, the bearish bias remains intact, with the price below the SMA and the RSI below 50. After a sharp drop, the price has paused. -Are you looking for the best AI Trading Brokers? Check our detailed guide- However, the RSI is making higher highs, indicating exhaustion in the downtrend. If bears have weakened, they might fail to breach the 1.3051 support. Moreover, bulls might reverse the trend by breaking above the SMA. Nevertheless, if bears are taking a short break, the price might soon start making lower lows. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/10/09/gbp-usd-forecast-consolidating-at-fresh-lows-eyes-on-cpi/
2024-10-09 09:07
Economists believe the European Central Bank will cut rates in October and December. Eurozone inflation fell below 2% in September. Traders will go through the Fed’s meeting minutes. The EUR/USD price analysis indicates a continuing slump as market participants price more European Central Bank rate cuts for this year. At the same time, the dollar paused after rallying to a seven-week high due to a robust US labor market report. –Are you interested to learn more about day trading brokers? Check our detailed guide- A majority of economists polled by Reuters on Tuesday believe the European Central Bank will cut rates in October and December. During both meetings, the central bank might implement 25-bps cuts. The new forecast is a shift from a month ago when they expected one more rate cut in December. Notably, Eurozone inflation fell below 2% in September, giving policymakers confidence that the fight was nearly over. As a result, ECB president Christine Lagarde hinted at another rate cut in October. Lower borrowing costs will weigh on the euro, especially since the US economy remains resilient, boosting the dollar. On Wednesday, the dollar drifted sideways after climbing to new peaks. The recent rally followed a better-than-expected nonfarm payrolls report. Initially, the Fed had implemented a significant rate cut, fearing deterioration in the labor market. Consequently, traders expected a similar rate cut in November and it weighed on the dollar. However, the monthly employment figures showed robust job growth and a softer unemployment rate. As a result, expectations shifted to reflect an 86% chance of a 25-bps rate cut in November. Later in the day, traders will go through the Fed’s meeting minutes, which might contain clues regarding future moves. Furthermore, the US CPI report on Thursday will show whether the central bank is winning its battle against inflation. EUR/USD key events today FOMC Meeting Minutes EUR/USD technical price analysis: Bears seek new lows On the technical side, the EUR/USD price is challenging the 1.0950 support level a second time. It trades well below the 30-SMA, with the RSI near the oversold region, supporting a bearish bias. -Are you looking for the best AI Trading Brokers? Check our detailed guide- Bears recently broke below the 1.1000 support level with a solid candle. The price then pulled back to retest the level and is now seeking new lows. However, the RSI has made a bullish divergence, indicating fading bearish momentum. Therefore, EUR/USD might rebound if bears do not regain momentum. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/10/09/eur-usd-price-analysis-markets-brace-for-more-ecb-rate-cuts/
