2024-04-25 07:06
The bias is bearish as long as it stays within the descending pitchfork’s body. The US data should be decisive today. A new higher high activates an upward movement. The gold price is trading in the green at $2,319 at the time of writing. The precious metal is struggling to come back higher after the last sell-off. However, the downside pressure remains high as the US dollar stays bid. Moreover, the Australian CPI q/q reported a 1.0% growth versus the 0.8% growth estimated, while the CPI y/y rose by 3.5%, exceeding the 3.4% growth forecasted. Gold is in a corrective phase, and it could extend it. Even though Canadian Retail Sales reported a 0.1% drop versus a 0.1% growth estimate, while Core Retail Sales registered a 0.3% drop, the traders expected a 0.0% growth. Also, the US Durable Goods Orders came in better than expected yesterday, while Core Durable Goods Orders disappointed a little. Today, the US economic data should have a significant impact. The Advance GDP may announce 2.5% growth after the 3.4% growth in the previous reporting period. Unemployment Claims could jump from 212K to 214K, while Pending Home Sales indicator may report a 0.3% growth. In addition, the Advance GDP Price Index, Goods Trade Balance, and Prelim Wholesale Inventories figures will also be published. The gold price dropped as low as $2,291 in the short term, where it found demand again. In the short term, the price moves sideways between this new low and the $2,334 level. -Are you looking for automated trading? Check our detailed guide- The metal has failed to reach the median line (ml) of the descending pitchfork and the weekly S2 (2,284), signaling exhausted sellers. Still, as long as it stays within the descending pitchfork’s body, the bias remains bearish. False breakouts through this upside obstacle may announce a new sell-off. Only taking out the upper median line (uml) and making a new higher high could activate an upward movement. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/04/25/gold-price-near-key-dynamic-resistance-advance-gdp-eyed/
2024-04-24 12:35
Staying above the median line indicates further growth. The US and Canadian figures should bring high action later today. The EUR/USD pair tries to confirm its breakout. The EUR/USD price touched 1.0714 today, registering a new weekly high. However, the pair failed to stay above the 1.07 psychological level and is now trading at 1.0686 at the time of writing. The US dollar rebounded in the short term. That’s why the currency pair slipped lower. However, the greenback remains sluggish as the US Flash Services PMI dropped from 51.7 points to 50.9 points, though the traders had expected a potential growth of 52.0 points, confirming a slowdown in expansion. Meanwhile, Flash Manufacturing PMI dropped unexpectedly from 51.9 to 49.9 points, announcing contraction again in this sector. On the other hand, the Eurozone, French, and German services sectors confirmed further expansion, so the Euro rallied. Today, the EUR received a helping hand from the German Ifo Business Climate and jumped from 87.8 points to 89.4 points, above the 88.9 points expected. Later today, the US Durable Goods Orders are expected to report a 2.5% growth, compared to the estimated 1.3% growth, while Core Durable Goods Orders could announce a 0.3% growth for the second month in March. Furthermore, Canadian retail sales could have an impact on the USD. Technically, the EUR/USD price rallied after invalidating the breakdown below the weekly pivot point of 1.0647. It has jumped above the descending pitchfork’s median line (ml) and the R1 of 1.0694. These represented upside obstacles, and the price tried to confirm the breakout by retesting these levels. -Are you looking for automated trading? Check our detailed guide- Staying above the median line may announce an upside continuation ahead. On the contrary, stabilizing below this line may signal a deeper drop towards the weekly pivot point of 1.0647 again. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/04/24/eur-usd-price-retraces-below-1-07-as-dollar-regains/
2024-04-24 10:12
Australia’s CPI increased by 1% in Q1, beating estimates for an increase of 0.8%. There is a 4% chance of an RBA hike in August. PMI data showed a decline in US business activity in April. The Australian dollar is rising, propelled by unexpectedly high inflation figures, painting a bullish picture for the AUD/USD forecast. After this report, investors have lowered their expectations for a Reserve Bank of Australia rate cut. On the other hand, the dollar was weak after PMI data revealed a slowdown in the economy. Investors abandoned hopes for an RBA cut this year after Australia’s Consumer Price Index beat forecasts. In Q1, the CPI increased by 1%, beating estimates for an increase of 0.8%. Notably, the increase came from stubborn service cost pressures. After the report, there was a sharp decline in RBA rate cut expectations, with some even pricing a 4% chance of a hike in August. The RBA has remained mostly cautious about cutting rates due to the still-tight labor market. However, there was some hope that the central bank would start sometime this year. This latest report has changed that outlook, as the RBA might not cut rates in 2024. As a result, the Aussie has a slight edge over other major currencies, given the RBA might cut rates after the Fed. Meanwhile, the AUD/USD pair got additional support from a weaker US dollar. On Tuesday, PMI data showed a decline in US business activity in April, which relieved the Fed. Any sign of weaker economic demand gives policymakers more confidence that inflation will decline. AUD/USD key events today Investors will keep absorbing the impact of Australia’s CPI report as no major reports are coming from the US. AUD/USD technical forecast: Bulls set their sights on the 0.6625 resistance On the technical side, the AUD/USD price sits well above the 30-SMA, showing bulls are in the lead. Moreover, the RSI trades near the overbought region, supporting solid bullish momentum. Bears lost market control when they failed to close below the 0.6400 key support level. Instead, the price made a large wick, signaling a rejection of lower prices. -Are you looking for automated trading? Check our detailed guide- At the same time, the RSI made a bullish divergence that revealed weaker bearish momentum. With bulls in the lead, the price has breached the 0.6500 key psychological level. They might pause at this level for a while before targeting 0.6625. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/04/24/aud-usd-forecast-rallies-as-rate-cut-bets-ease-after-hot-cpi/
2024-04-24 08:33
Britain’s composite PMI increased to 54.0 in April from 52.8 in March. The BoE’s chief economist, Huw Pill, said that rate cuts remain some way off. US business activity cooled significantly, leading to a decline in the dollar. The pound’s rise following the release of encouraging PMI data on Tuesday sparked a bullish outlook for the GBP/USD price analysis. Adding to the momentum, investors have dialed down their expectations of a Bank of England rate cut, spurred by hawkish comments. Meanwhile, the dollar was weak after PMI data revealed a decline in business activity in the US. Britain’s composite PMI increased to 54.0 in April from 52.8 in March, indicating a recovery in the economy. The rebound from its shallow recession is much faster than economists expected. Moreover, this might drive up inflation and wages, leading to a more cautious outlook for the Bank of England’s policy outlook. Currently, markets expect the first rate cut in June or August. Notably, the BoE’s chief economist Huw Pill said that rate cuts remained some way off, emphasizing caution despite the recent decline in inflation. As a result, there was a drop in rate-cut bets. Meanwhile, in the US, the composite PMI fell to 50.9 in April from 52.1 in March, indicating a slowdown in the economy. Such downbeat data comes as a relief to Fed policymakers as it reflects a drop in demand. However, investors will wait for Friday’s core PCE inflation report to shape the Fed’s rate-cut outlook. Markets currently predict a 73% likelihood that the central bank will cut in September. GBP/USD key events today Investors are not looking forward to high-impact US or UK reports today. Therefore, they will keep digesting the PMI data. GBP/USD technical price analysis: Bullish momentum pauses at the 0.382 Fib level On the technical side, the GBP/USD price has broken above the 30-SMA, indicating a bullish sentiment shift. Similarly, the RSI has broken above 50 and now favors bullish momentum. This shift came after the price paused at the 1.2301 key level. At that point, the RSI made a bullish divergence that showed weakness in the downtrend. As a result, bears gave up control when the price broke above the SMA. -Are you looking for automated trading? Check our detailed guide- However, bulls are now facing the 0.382 Fib retracement level. This might trigger a pullback to retest the SMA as support before the price targets the 1.2550 key resistance level. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/04/24/gbp-usd-price-analysis-pound-surges-on-positive-pmi/
2024-04-23 12:34
Data on Tuesday revealed a big jump in the Eurozone’s services sector. ECB’s Luis de Guindos confirmed the June rate cut. Any policy divergence between the Fed and the ECB could weaken the euro. The EUR/USD price analysis leans bullish as the euro gains ground on upbeat PMI data. Despite this positive momentum, investor focus remains on the probability of the European Central Bank implementing its first rate cut in June. Data on Tuesday revealed a big jump in the Eurozone’s services sector, which made up for a decline in manufacturing activity. Therefore, the composite PMI jumped, indicating a return to growth in the Euro area. Despite the recovery in the economy, markets still expect the ECB to start implementing rate cuts ahead of the Fed in June. Notably, ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos confirmed on Tuesday that the ECB will lower rates in June. However, he also said the central bank should exercise caution after June and wait for signals from the Federal Reserve. Clearly, policymakers are worried about a possible policy divergence with the Fed. Market participants have significantly pushed back expectations for rate cuts in the US after recent upbeat inflation data. Moreover, policymakers have shifted their tone from dovish to bullish, saying they might prolong higher interest rates. Therefore, markets expect fewer cuts, which might start in the fourth quarter. This is well after the ECB’s June cut. Any divergence with the Fed could cause a significant decline in the euro, which might undo some of the ECB’s work. A weaker euro would increase import costs and drive inflation. As such, the ECB will likely be patient after the first cut to see what the Fed will do. EUR/USD key events today US flash manufacturing PMI US flash services PMI EUR/USD technical price analysis: Weaker push above 30-SMA On the technical side, the EUR/USD price has started trading above the 30-SMA, showing bulls have taken over. This comes after a pause at the 1.618 Fib extension level and a bullish divergence in the RSI. -Are you looking for automated trading? Check our detailed guide- However, the new move is weak because the price is sticking close to the SMA. At the same time, it is making small-bodied candles, showing weak momentum. If bulls find their footing above the SMA, they will retest the 1.0725 key level. Otherwise, the downtrend will continue below 1.0600. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/04/23/eur-usd-price-analysis-euro-finds-respite-on-better-pmi/
2024-04-23 10:07
Escaping from the up channel announced a potential leg down. Taking out the immediate downside obstacles opens the door for more declines. The US data could change sentiment in the short term. The gold price tumbled after failing to retest the new all-time high of $2,431 and is now trading at $2,294 at the time of writing. The bias has turned bearish in the short term. So, the XAU/USD could hit new lows despite a slightly weaker dollar. Today, the fundamentals should be decisive and may shift the sentiment. The French Flash Services PMI came in at 50.5 points above the 48.9 points expected versus 48.3 points in the previous reporting period, confirming expansion. In comparison, German Flash Services PMI jumped from 50.1 points to 53.3 points, beating 50.6 estimates, announcing further expansion. On the contrary, the French Flash Manufacturing PMI and German Flash Manufacturing PMI remained deep in the contraction territory. Furthermore, the Eurozone and UK Flash Services PMI came in better than expected, while the Flash Manufacturing PMI came in worse than expected. Later, the US data should move the markets. Flash Manufacturing PMI and Flash Services PMI indicators are expected to come in better than the previous reporting period. In addition, the New Home Sales and Richmond Manufacturing Index data will be released as well. Only positive US figures could save the greenback from the downside. From a technical point of view, gold entered a corrective phase after retesting the major uptrend line. The price escaped from the up channel, confirming a potential leg down. -Are you looking for automated trading? Check our detailed guide- Taking out the weekly pivot point at $2,378 opened the door for a larger drop. Now, it has ignored the weekly S1 (2,338) and is almost to hit the weekly S2 (2,284) and the median line (ml). These represent important downside obstacles. Taking out these support levels validates more declines ahead. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/04/23/gold-price-looking-for-a-deeper-correction-below-2300/
