2024-04-19 08:23
There were reports that Israel had attacked Iran in retaliation. Ueda said the BoJ might have to hike rates if the yen continues falling. US unemployment claims held steady from the previous week. The USD/JPY price analysis paints a bearish picture, influenced by the yen’s surge. The surge came from soaring safe-haven demand amid escalating tensions in the Middle East. At the same time, BoJ governor Kazuo Ueda signalled a possible rate hike if the yen continues its decline. -Are you looking for the best AI Trading Brokers? Check our detailed guide- On Friday, the yen gained popularity among investors as one of the traditionally safe assets. This happened after reports that Israel had attacked Iran in retaliation. Consequently, investors feared the war would escalate, leading to a decline in risk appetite. However, the USD/JPY pair reversed most of its decline soon after, as it became unclear whether the attack had happened. Meanwhile, Bank of Japan governor Kazuo Ueda said on Thursday that the central bank might be forced to hike rates if the yen continues falling. According to him, a further decline in the yen could lead to a spike in inflation. A rate hike would give breath to the yen, which has recently fallen to its lowest level since 1990. Therefore, investors will watch the BoJ policy meeting next week for more clues on the rate hike outlook. Data revealed that US unemployment claims held steady from the previous week, missing forecasts for a slight increase. It indicates continued strength in the US labor market, which has remained resilient despite high rates. Therefore, markets continue pushing back the timing of the first Fed rate cut. USD/JPY key events today There are no economic events in the US or Japan today. Therefore, investors will keep an eye on the Middle East. USD/JPY technical price analysis: 30-SMA puncture signals strong bearish momentum. On the technical side, the USD/JPY price is bullish as it sits above the 30-SMA and is making higher highs and lows. However, bears recently made a strong candle that punctured the 30-SMA support. This indicated a surge in bearish momentum. However, they failed to close below the SMA. Moreover, the price pulled back from the 154.00 critical level. -Are you looking for the best MT5 Brokers? Check our detailed guide- Despite the failed attempt, bears have shown they might be ready to take over. Moreover, the attempt came after the RSI made a bearish divergence, signaling a possible reversal. A break below 154.00 would allow the price to retest the 152.00 key level. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/04/19/usd-jpy-price-analysis-yens-demand-soars-after-israel-attack/
2024-04-19 06:58
Investors dumped risk assets on Friday amid fears of an escalation in the Middle East war. In March, Australians lost 6,600 jobs. Markets are placing a 65% chance on the first RBA rate cut in December. The AUD/USD outlook takes a bearish turn as the risk-sensitive Aussie fluctuates following unsettling reports of Israel’s attack on Iran. Moreover, the currency grapples with the fallout from a lackluster jobs report. -Are you looking for the best AI Trading Brokers? Check our detailed guide- Investors dumped risk assets on Friday amid fears of an escalation in the Middle East war. Notably, there were reports that Israel had retaliated after Iran’s recent attack. As a result, investors were worried that the war might worsen. This sent them to more traditional safe-haven currencies like the yen and the Swiss franc. Meanwhile, risk-sensitive currencies like the Aussie and the Kiwi suffered. Although the move was sharp, it reversed soon after, as Iran denied reports of the attack. At the same time, investors were reeling from poor employment reports from Australia. In March, Australians lost 6,600 jobs, a sharp reversal from February’s blockbuster figure. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate rose to 3.8%. Such a miss in employment should have pushed up rate cut expectations. However, a Reserve Bank of Australia cut remains far off. The easing in the labor market is a relief for the central bank, but it is slow. Therefore, markets are placing a 65% chance on the first rate cut in December. This outlook keeps the RBA behind the Fed as markets expect the first US cut in September. Nevertheless, monetary policy outlooks keep changing with incoming data. AUD/USD key events today Traders will focus on developments in the Middle East war, as no key reports come from Australia or the US. AUD/USD technical outlook: Large wick signals rejection below 0.6400 On the technical side, the AUD/USD price is on a downtrend, with the price trading below the 30-SMA and the RSI almost oversold. However, the decline has paused at the 0.6400 critical support level. Bears tried to break below this level but failed when the price reversed to make a big wick. This is a sign that bulls have rejected the move lower. -Are you looking for the best MT5 Brokers? Check our detailed guide- However, given the bearish bias, the price might make another attempt to break below. If it fails, it might pull back to retest the 30-SMA resistance before targeting the 0.6350 key level. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/04/19/aud-usd-outlook-volatility-surges-amid-israel-iran-tension/
2024-04-18 12:23
The false breakdowns announced a new leg higher. The median line acts as a magnet and attracts the price. Taking out 1.0664 signaled further growth. The EUR/USD price is trading in the green at 1.0678 at the time of writing. The pair looks positive to hit new highs near 1.0700 area. The US dollar is in a corrective phase; hence, the Euro can post a meaningful recovery. -Are you looking for the best AI Trading Brokers? Check our detailed guide- After the last drop, the currency pair was somehow expected to correct higher. Yesterday, the Eurozone Final CPI and Final Core CPI came in line with expectations. Today, the Eurozone Current Account was reported at 29.5B below the expected 45.2 B and 39.3B in the previous reporting period. The US Unemployment Claims are expected to jump from 211K to 215K in the last week, which could be bad for the USD. Furthermore, the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index is expected to be at 1.5 points, versus 3.2% in the previous reporting period. Existing Home Sales could drop from 4.38M to 4.20M, while the CB Leading Index may report a 0.1% drop. Positive US figures should lift the USD. Also, the FOMC members’ speeches could change the sentiment in the short term. Tomorrow, German PPI could bring some action. Technically, the EUR/USD price found support on the lower median line (lml) of the descending pitchfork, and now it has turned to the upside. The false breakdowns announced exhausted sellers and a potential swing higher. -Are you looking for the best MT5 Brokers? Check our detailed guide- The pair has passed above 1.0664, signaling further growth. The 1.0700 psychological level is seen as the next potential target and obstacle. In addition, the median line (ml) and the weekly pivot point represent resistance levels as well. The median line acts as a magnet and attracts the price. The current rally towards this dynamic resistance is natural after failing to take out the lower median line. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/04/18/eur-usd-price-aiming-to-test-1-07-level-as-risk-tone-improves/
2024-04-18 07:09
The dollar retreated on Tuesday as investors paused after a steep rally. Hawkish Fed remarks that changed the outlook for rate cuts in the US. Recent inflation data from Canada revealed a decline in price increases. The USD/CAD outlook points to a temporary downtrend as investors take profits on their long dollar positions. Moreover, the Canadian dollar strengthened as oil prices recovered from a massive decline in the previous session. However, recent data from Canada points to further declines in the loonie. -Are you looking for the best AI Trading Brokers? Check our detailed guide- The dollar retreated as investors paused after a steep rally. The recent rise came from hawkish Fed remarks that changed the outlook for rate cuts in the US. Fed officials have shifted their outlook for interest rates after recent upbeat data. As a result, they have called for patience, with Powell stating that the country will need restrictive monetary policy conditions for longer. This has led to a decline in rate-cut bets, with the first cut likely to come in September. Meanwhile, recent inflation data from Canada revealed a decline in price increases. Inflation rose by a weaker-than-expected 2.8% in March, confirming a consistent downtrend to the BoC’s target. Therefore, there is more pressure on the central bank to start implementing rate cuts in June, well before the Fed. After the inflation report, markets bet a 55% chance of a BoC cut in June, up from 44% before the news. The divergence in monetary policies between the US and Canada keeps growing with each new economic report. At the moment, there is a high chance that the USD/CAD pair will resume its rally, especially since the recent decline in oil prices might continue. Oil traders have reversed the recent rally as demand concerns outweigh supply worries. USD/CAD key events today US jobless claims USD/CAD technical outlook: Bears challenge bullish momentum at the 30-SMA. On the technical side, the USD/CAD price has fallen after failing to sustain a move above the 1.3800 key resistance level. The decline has broken below the 30-SMA support. At the same time, the RSI has fallen below the pivotal 50 mark. Consequently, there has been a shift in sentiment to bearish. -Are you looking for the best MT5 Brokers? Check our detailed guide- However, bears will only reverse the trend if the price breaks below the 1.3700 key level. Moreover, to confirm a new trend, the price must break below the bullish trendline and start making lower highs and lows. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/04/18/usd-cad-outlook-dollar-pauses-rally-amid-profit-taking/
2024-04-18 05:30
UK inflation fell from 3.4% in February to 3.2% in March. Governor Bailey said the decline in inflation aligned with the central bank’s forecasts. There is more caution about rate cuts in the US. Things are looking up in the GBP/USD forecast as the pound stages a recovery following a smaller-than-expected decline in inflation. At the same time, the dollar is falling as investors pause the recent data-driven rally. -Are you looking for the best AI Trading Brokers? Check our detailed guide- On Wednesday, the UK released data showing higher-than-expected inflation, which led to a decline in rate cut expectations. Inflation fell from 3.4% in February to 3.2% in March. However, economists had expected a bigger decline to 3.1%. As a result, traders scaled back bets for BoE rate cuts. At the moment, they expect the first cut in August or September. Still, there is more clarity on The BoE’s rate cut outlook than the Fed’s. After the report, Governor Bailey said the decline aligned with the central bank’s forecasts. Moreover, he said inflation was on a downtrend and would reach the central bank’s target. Meanwhile, Fed policymakers are less certain about the direction of inflation in the US. Recent data has indicated a pause at levels above the central bank’s target. Moreover, the economy remains resilient despite higher interest rates. Therefore, there is more caution about rate cuts in the US. Additionally, Fed Chair Powell has said that restrictive policy conditions will likely continue for longer. With no clear timing for the first cut, investors are betting on some time in the fourth quarter. Some experts even believe the Fed might not cut in 2024 if inflation remains stubborn. GBP/USD key events today US unemployment claims GBP/USD technical forecast: Bears weaken at the 1.618 Fib extension level On the technical side, the GBP/USD price is consolidating between the 30-SMA and the 1.2400 key level. Meanwhile, the bias is bearish because the range is below the 30-SMA, and the RSI is in bearish territory below 50. However, the price has failed to close strongly below the 1.618 Fib extension level. -Are you looking for the best MT5 Brokers? Check our detailed guide- Moreover, the RSI has made a bullish divergence, indicating weaker bearish momentum. Consequently, bulls might be preparing to make a big move that would break above the 30-SMA. This would signal a shift in the bias to bullish. Moreover, the price would likely retest the 1.2550 key level. However, if bears regain strength, the price will fall below 1.2400. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/04/18/gbp-usd-forecast-pound-rebounds-on-mild-inflation-drop/
2024-04-17 13:17
The bearish pressure remains high as long as it stays below the median line. A new higher high activates a larger rebound. The price action signaled an oversold. The GBP/USD price rallied today and hit as high as 1.2481 after the UK CPI came in better than expected. Now, the pair has retreated a little and is trading at 1.2457 at the time of writing. -Are you looking for the best AI Trading Brokers? Check our detailed guide- In the short term, the pair lacks strong conviction. So, we’ll have to wait for fresh opportunities before taking action. The downside pressure remains high despite short-term rebounds, as the US dollar is still bullish. The US Building Permits, Housing Starts, and Capacity Utilization Rate came in worse than expected, while Industrial Production reported a 0.4% growth as expected. Today, the British Pound took the lead as the UK Consumer Price Index reported a 3.2% growth versus the 3.1% growth estimated, while Core CPI announced a 4.2% growth, exceeding the 4.1% growth estimated. However, the HPI and PPI Input came in worse than expected. Tomorrow, the US Unemployment Claims, Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, CB Leading Index, and Existing Home Sales can move the prices. Moreover, the United Kingdom retail sales data should bring high action on Friday. Technically, the currency pair failed to stay below the lower median line (lml) of the descending pitchfork, signaling sellers’ exhaustion. However, the bias remains bearish as long as it stays below the median line (ml). -Are you looking for the best MT5 Brokers? Check our detailed guide- After today’s strong rally, the price could come back to retest the demand zone from above 1.2420. A larger rebound could be activated after taking out the median line (ml) of the descending pitchfork and the 1.2498 static resistance. On the contrary, a new lower low activates more declines. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/04/17/gbp-usd-price-rebounds-as-uk-inflation-remains-hot/
