2025-06-16 09:43

The AUD/USD price recovers as Israel may head for a ceasefire with Hammas. China’s upbeat retail sales data boosts Aussie. US dollar stays weaker amid improved risk and dovish FOMC. The AUD/USD price recovers ground as the geopolitical tension cools down after Israel proposed a revised deal to negotiate with Hammas for the hostages. The situation may lead to a temporary ceasefire. However, the boiling situation of Israel and Iran may cap the gains for the Australian dollar. -If you are interested in forex day trading then have a read of our guide to getting started- Although the US President urged to broker peace between the countries, Iran said that it will not negotiate while under attack. If the situation cools down, the Aussie may see a continued upside. China’s retail sales data exceeded expectations of 5% to hit 6.4% which boosted the Aussie. However, the industrial production missed expectations slightly at came 5.8%. The Chinese National Bureau of Statistics noted that the first half may remain stable for the domestic economy. However, the second quarter growth may struggle amid trade concerns. The US dollar loses intraday gains as risk sentiment improves on the day. Last week, the US CPI and PPI data were negative enough to trigger a sell-off. Meanwhile, upbeat UoM Consumer Sentiment could not lend support to the currency. The major event this week is FOMC meeting that may provide future policy guidance to the market participants. With inflation data cooling and softening labor market, the central bank may ease sooner. Key Events Ahead There is no major event due today. Hence, risk sentiment will be the key driver. AUD/USD Price Technical Analysis: Bullish Pennant Pattern The AUD/USD 4-hour chart shows the price is wobbling around the 20-period SMA. The last two candles show a buying pressure, enabling the price to close above the 20-SMA. The chart also shows a bullish continuation pattern called “pennant.” Hence a probability of a breakout exists too. -Are you looking for the best AI Trading Brokers? Check our detailed guide- The upside may meet resistance at 0.6550 ahead of 0.6575 and 0.6600. On the flip side, breaking the lower boundary of the pennant may trigger a sell-off towards 0.6450 support ahead of 0.6410. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/06/16/aud-usd-price-gains-amid-upbeat-chinese-data/

2025-06-16 08:26

The EUR/USD price sees a fresh buying wave as geopolitical tensions de-escalate. The ECB’s shift of tone may provide an additional boost to the euro. Market participants are eyeing the FOMC meeting this week. The EUR/USD price maintains a strong bullish momentum despite the Middle East tension that weighed on the pair on Friday. The price stays above the mid-1.1500 area through the early European session. -If you are interested in forex day trading then have a read of our guide to getting started- After a renewed strike between Israel and Iran, US President Trump urged both countries to make peace. Earlier, the markets saw a turmoil amid Israel’s attacks on Iranian nuclear and military facilities, killing many. The retaliatory attack by Iran also killed civilians in Israel. Global stocks plummeted on Friday. However, European stocks have started the day on a positive note, as the probability of heading to the peace is higher for now. The US dollar comes under pressure as the risk appetite improves. On the trade front, last week’s US-China trade talks boosted the risk sentiment. More negotiations will be carried later that could result in reaching mutually agreed terms. Hence, the risk assets may see a rally. This week’s most important event is the FOMC meeting, where markets expect no change in the interest rates. However, the policy statement by the Fed Chair is key to watch, as clues about future guidance to the rate cuts can be found. On the other hand, the ECB’s Nagel commented today that the central bank is flexible and is not going to signal a pause or a rate cut due to the higher amount of uncertainty. He also said that the ECB has already accomplished its objectives and there will be no rate cuts in the summer. Key Events Ahead There is no major event due today. Hence, market participants will be watching geopolitical developments and trade talks for fresh impetus. EUR/USD Technical Price Analysis: Downside Limited by 20-SMA The 4-hour chart shows a stubborn support by the 20-period SMA that limits the downside potential of the pair. However, the chart also shows a bearish pinbar with a multi-year high at 1.1632. It suggests the pair has a strong resistance at the level. -Are you looking for the best AI Trading Brokers? Check our detailed guide- Hence, the pair is expected to play between the 20-SMA and the pinbar high. The RSI is at 65.0 for now, gradually reaching the overbought zone. So, the pair may see a retracement. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/06/16/eur-usd-price-recovers-as-geopolitical-tension-de-escalates/

2025-06-14 16:31

Gold weekly forecast is bullish amid geopolitical tension. Cooling US inflation data, which weighs on the dollar, boosted demand for gold. Market participants are now eyeing the FOMC meeting minutes. The gold weekly forecast turns strongly bullish, with an eye on testing the all-time highs around $3,500. The recent geopolitical tension stemming from the Israel-Iran conflict drove the price above $3,400 level, marking a fresh multi-week top at $3,445 before pulling back later on Friday. -If you are interested in forex day trading then have a read of our guide to getting started- The softer US dollar demand, amid cooler US CPI data, boosted gold’s uptrend. The stage is now set for the precious metal for a volatile next week as traders anxiously wait for the Fed’s policy meeting. The yellow metal remained sideways as the week began, capped by optimism around the US-China trade talks in London. Negotiators agreed on a framework to preserve the tariff truce and ease export controls, including those on rare earth metals. The US President’s announcement to relax control on many Chinese products also lifted the risk sentiment, limiting the upside for gold. The momentum shifted in favor of gold during midweek as the US CPI data for May slipped, with headline inflation at 0.1% m/m and 2.4% y/y. The core inflation also missed the estimate. The data triggered a sharp decline in the US dollar, resulting in a 1% gain on Wednesday. The bullish trend continued on Thursday as the US PPI and jobless claims data were weak enough to sustain selling pressure on the Greenback. The data fueled speculation about the Fed’s more dovish stance. However, the decisive catalyst was Israel’s attack on Iran’s nuclear facility and military officials. Israeli PM announced the launch of “Operation Rising Lion,” noting the attack would continue until needed. Iran also retaliated and warned the US and Israel of severe repercussions. The situation sent the gold price above $3,400. Major Events for Gold Next Week All eyes are now on the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decisions and the updated release of the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) on Wednesday. Although no change in interest rates is expected, the new dot plot is key to watch. The US dollar can weaken further if the Fed officials reiterate their call for two rate cuts by the end of 2025. A hawkish tilt, signaling one cut, may strengthen the Greenback, and gold can see a pullback. Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s commentary will also be closely watched. A dovish tone may accelerate the dollar selling, pushing gold to fresh all-time highs. Gold Weekly Technical Forecast: Bulls Pushing to $3,500 The daily chart of gold shows the price has briefly broken a double top at $3,440. The downside remains well supported by the 20-day SMA and a rising RSI at 63.0. The price is slowly heading towards $3,500 (all-time high). -Are you looking for the best AI Trading Brokers? Check our detailed guide- On the flip side, the $3,400 level remains a strong support for the gold ahead of the $3,320 area where the 20-day SMA resides. Breaking below the level may drift towards $3,300. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/06/14/gold-weekly-forecast-geopolitics-could-push-to-new-ath/

2025-06-14 14:57

GBP/USD weekly forecast remains bullish amid broad dollar weakness. Weaker US data and easing US-China trade tensions support the pound. All eyes are on the BoE and FOMC meetings due next week. The GBP/USD weekly forecast remains strongly bullish as the pair hits its third consecutive week in gains. The price marked a 39-month top at 1.3635 before pulling back ahead of the weekend. -If you are interested in forex day trading then have a read of our guide to getting started- The bullish momentum gained traction after a period of consolidation earlier in the week. The weaker dollar and improved risk sentiment helped the buyers. However, the key catalyst was progress in the US-China trade negotiation, concluded in London with an agreement to ease restrictions on exports, including rare earth metals. Though the announcement had no details, it boosted risk appetite and weighed on the safe-haven Greenback. The US inflation data surprised the market to the downside, with a 0.1% rise on a monthly basis, which dragged annual inflation to 2.4%, missing the estimate of 2.5%. The core inflation also remained downbeat, increasing odds for a dovish Fed. This was further fueled by softer US PPI data and rising weekly jobless claims that deepened the USD losses and provided additional strength to the pound. However, the rally proved to be short-lived. Geopolitical tensions ignited later in the week due to Israel’s attack on Iran, killing Iranian military officials and scientists. Iran responded in retaliation, which escalated the fear of broader conflict. The safe-haven demand for the US dollar soared on the news that triggered a significant pullback of more than a hundred pips in the GBP/USD pair. The downward pressure was further intensified by the UoM Consumer Sentiment Index that rose to 60.5, well above the expected 53.5. Major Events for GBP/USD in the Week Ahead Looking ahead, next week, the market participants will focus on the upcoming central bank meetings. Both the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of England are set to announce their key policy decisions midweek. Consensus suggests no change from either the Fed, which is expected to hold rates at 4.25%-4.50%, or the BoE, which is also expected to hold rates at 4.25%. Moreover, the US and UK retail sales data, along with UK CPI and US jobless claims, will be important to watch. Meanwhile, geopolitics and the Fed’s further commentary will also shape the outlook. GBP/USD Weekly Technical Forecast: Bulls Supported by 20-SMA The daily chart of the GBP/USD suggests a consolidation within a broad uptrend. The Friday pullback remained strongly supported by the 20-day SMA. Meanwhile, a strong support zone also emerges in the 1.3420-60 area. The daily RSI is at 58.00 with a tilt to the downside, which suggests further consolidation. -Are you looking for the best AI Trading Brokers? Check our detailed guide- On the upside, the resistance lies at 1.3600, which is a round number ahead of 1.3635, which is a fresh 39-month top. Breaking the level may gather enough traction to test 1.3700. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/06/14/gbp-usd-weekly-forecast-dovish-fed-us-china-trade-deal/

2025-06-13 11:42

The EUR/USD forecast is neutral as markets experience risk aversion. ECB-Fed divergence may continue to support the euro. The confluence zone at 1.1500 may help euro buyers stay bid. The EUR/USD forecast has turned neutral despite a broad upside trend, as Israel’s attack on Iran triggered a strong risk-aversion sentiment in the global financial markets. –Are you interested to learn more about crypto signals? Check our detailed guide- On Thursday, the EUR/USD pair marked a fresh 2025 high around 1.1635 due to downbeat US PPI data. Earlier this week, the US CPI data also missed expectations. The subdued inflation data weakened the US dollar, resulting in a strong upside push to the euro. The ECB members also left some hawkish comments about the monetary policy earlier this week. They hinted at an end to the easing cycle after delivering a 200 bps rate reduction in eight meetings. However, the economic outlook is not particularly healthy, and concerns about growth still linger. Today’s Eurozone inflation data also met expectations. The German CPI came at 2% target of the ECB, while the French CPI slipped 0.6%. However, the risk-off sentiment stemming from the Iran-Israel conflict weighed on the currency pair. The price has slipped more than a hundred pips since the day started. As the Israeli PM said, the operation will continue as long as it takes. It means the coming week may also see a deterioration in the risk sentiment. Hence, the euro is likely to experience further weakness. Key Events Ahead Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations EUR/USD Technical Forecast: Confluence Zone to Protect Losses The EUR/USD 4-hour chart shows an interesting scenario. The price has pulled back to the the 1.1500 area, where the previous swing high was formed and broken. The same area coincides with the 20-period SMA. This is also a round number, which may serve as psychological support. –Are you interested to learn more about forex robots? Check our detailed guide- Now, it is essential to observe whether the price bounces from this confluence or consolidates around it and then resumes the downside move. Breaking below the 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) and sustaining this level may gather selling momentum and test the support at 1.1440, ahead of 1.1400. On the flip side, staying above the 20-period SMA can be a positive sign and may push towards 1.1550 area. The RSI has sharply moved from overbought zone to 50.0 level. Staying above the 50.0 level is another sign of bullish continuation. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/06/13/eur-usd-forecast-pares-gains-amid-risk-aversion/

2025-06-13 11:09

Gold price forms a fresh multi-week high amid the Middle East crisis. Dismal US economic data may push the Fed to cut rates soon. The metal corrects after a strong upside with the potential to hit $3,500. Gold price breaks above the $3,400 mark on Friday, posting fresh multi-week highs near $3,445 as the safe haven flows dominate after Israel attacks Iran’s nuclear enrichment sites. –Are you interested to learn more about crypto signals? Check our detailed guide- The Israeli Prime Minister announced the beginning of “Operation Rising Lion” against Iran’s missile facilities and other military capabilities. He also noted that the operation will continue for as many days as it takes. Iran also responded that the US and Israel will pay a heavy price for the aggression. Recent news reveals that Israel has already intercepted drones in Jordanian and Syrian airspace. US President Trump will call a meeting of the National Security Council later today, where he will discuss the Iran-Israel conflict. He also warned Iran not to target American personnel or interests in retaliation. According to Reuters, a US official reported on the condition of anonymity that the American military is planning for several contingencies in the Middle East, including aiding the evacuation of US citizens. Gold remains the biggest beneficiary of the situation, gaining over 1% on the day. The risk-averse environment also benefited the US dollar. However, the currency had lost around 0.8% on Thursday due to a weaker PPI reading. Cooling consumer and wholesale inflation, combined with subdued jobs data. The unemployment claims data marked an eight-month high. The situation may push the Fed to cut interest rates soon, which can further boost gold’s demand as a non-yielding asset. Key Events Ahead Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations Gold Price Technical Analysis: Pullback Amid Oversold RSI The 4-hour gold chart shows a mild pullback after briefly breaking the previous top at $3,440. The 20-period SMA is pointing upwards, showing a strong bullish trend. However, the RSI is slowly retreating after hitting the overbought zone. It means the pullback can be significant. The immediate resistance lies at $3,445, ahead of all-time highs around $3,500. –Are you interested to learn more about forex robots? Check our detailed guide- Alternatively, the downside may find strong support at today’s pivot point near $3,375. Falling below the level may trigger strong selling and drift to $3,350. However, the path of least resistance is still on the upside. The metal may consolidate around $3,400 in a mild range before resuming its upside. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/06/13/gold-price-soars-above-3400-amid-israel-iran-crisis/