2025-05-06 10:18
The EUR/USD price analysis indicates renewed dollar weakness. Trump announced a new 100% tariff on films produced outside the US. Data on Monday showed further expansion in the US services sector. The EUR/USD price analysis indicates renewed euro strength as US tariff uncertainty weighs on the dollar. It has become clear that Trump is unwilling to give up his tariff campaign. At the same time, market participants stay off the market ahead of the crucial FOMC policy meeting. -Are you looking for forex robots? Check our detailed guide- On Sunday, Trump announced a new 100% tariff on films produced outside the US, pausing the dollar’s recent rally. Initially, demand for the US currency had soared amid hopes of easing trade tensions. Trump had announced looming trade deals with Japan, India, and South Korea. Moreover, the US president said there was hope for a deal with China in the near future. As a result, risk appetite surged and investor confidence rebounded. However, at the start of the week, uncertainty arose when Trump returned to his aggressive tariff moves. This paused the dollar’s rally, allowing the euro to climb on Tuesday. Still, the move was subdued after recent economic figures revealed a resilient US economy. Data on Monday showed further expansion in the services sector as business activity improved more than expected. Meanwhile, Friday’s employment numbers were positive. As a result, Fed rate cut expectations have eased. Still, policymakers might hint at the future during this week’s meeting. EUR/USD key events today Federal Funds Rate FOMC Statement FOMC Press Conference EUR/USD technical price analysis: Bulls aim for the 1.1550 resistance On the technical side, the EUR/USD price is about to break out of a tight wedge pattern near the 1.1301 support level. Bulls are challenging the 30-SMA and the wedge resistance line. At the same time, the RSI has edged above 50, indicating stronger bullish momentum. -Are you looking for the best CFD broker? Check our detailed guide- Initially, the price was in a solid uptrend, respecting the 30-SMA as support. At the same time, it was making higher highs and lows. However, this stopped after bulls failed to break above the 1.1550 resistance level. Bears emerged at this level and pushed the price below the SMA, indicating a shift in sentiment. The next step for bears was to start making lower highs and lows. However, the 1.1301 support has held firm. Therefore, a break above the SMA and the wedge resistance will allow EUR/USD to retest the 1.1550 level. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/05/06/eur-usd-price-rebounds-as-trade-tensions-resurface/
2025-05-06 09:17
The USD/CAD outlook shows renewed tariff uncertainty in the US, dragging the dollar lower. The greenback rebounded last week after Trump said there was significant progress in trade talks. Business activity in the US services sector expanded further. The USD/CAD outlook shows renewed tariff uncertainty in the US, dragging the dollar lower. The greenback fell against its peers on Monday after Trump announced new film tariffs. Meanwhile, market participants were gearing up for the FOMC policy meeting. -Are you looking for forex robots? Check our detailed guide- On Sunday, Trump announced a 100% tariff on all films made outside the US. This move dashed hopes of the US president taking a softer stance on trade policies. As a result, the dollar dropped. Last week, the greenback rebounded after Trump said there was significant progress in trade talks. He said the US would soon sign trade deals with several countries, including India. However, market participants are still waiting for this. Furthermore, the trade war between China and the US continues to hurt both economies. Trump has said several times that the two countries were getting closer to a deal. However, progress has stalled. A re-escalation of tariff uncertainty could weigh on investor confidence and the dollar again. However, data on Monday revealed that business activity in the US services sector expanded further, easing fears of a recession. The report followed an upbeat monthly employment report. As a result, Fed June rate cut bets have dropped. Market participants are now pricing only a 37% chance of such a move. Meanwhile, the Fed will likely keep interest rates unchanged at the meeting this week. USD/CAD key events today Federal Funds Rate FOMC Statement FOMC Press Conference USD/CAD technical outlook: Bears struggle to break out of consolidation On the technical side, the USD/CAD price remains in a tight range between the 1.3800 support and the 1.3900 resistance. After a sharp decline, bearish momentum weakened when the price reached the 1.3800 support. The RSI made a bullish divergence, signaling a looming reversal. -Are you looking for the best CFD broker? Check our detailed guide- Within the range, the price trades nearer the support, meaning bears might attempt a breakout. A break below the range support will confirm a continuation of the previous downtrend. On the other hand, if support holds firm, bulls will return to retest the resistance. Given the RSI divergence, a bullish breakout is more likely. Such a move would allow USD/CAD to retest the 1.4100 resistance. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/05/06/usd-cad-outlook-dollar-dips-as-trade-policy-uncertainty-returns/
2025-05-05 09:22
The USD/JPY outlook shows a stronger yen at the start of the week. The BoJ faces high food inflation, strong wage growth, and the possibility of a weak yen. US employers added 177,000 new workers, beating estimates of 138,000. The USD/JPY outlook shows a stronger yen at the start of the week, as market participants maintain hopes for further BoJ tightening. Meanwhile, the dollar strengthened against the yen briefly on Friday after an upbeat US employment report. -Are you looking for forex robots? Check our detailed guide- The yen collapsed Thursday after the Bank of Japan kept interest rates unchanged. Furthermore, the central bank downgraded its outlook for growth and inflation due to the impact of Trump’s tariffs. Governor Ueda noted that Trump’s trade policies had created a lot of uncertainty. Experts took this to mean the policymakers would delay rate hikes. As a result, rate hike expectations dropped. However, Japan’s currency rebounded on Friday after the impact of the policy meeting faded. The BoJ has to face high food inflation, strong wage growth, and the chances of a weak yen. Therefore, hopes are still alive that policymakers will boost interest rates. Meanwhile, the greenback got a brief boost from data showing a resilient labor market. The economy added 177,000 new workers, beating estimates of 138,000. The unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.2%. After the report, market participants priced a 35% chance of a June Fed rate cut, down from 58%. However, due to Trump’s tariffs, analysts expect employment to deteriorate in the coming months. USD/JPY key events today US ISM services PMI USD/JPY technical outlook: Brief retreat meets solid support zone On the technical side, bulls have found their footing above the 30-SMA. The trend recently reversed when bears failed to go below the 140.01 support level. The price broke above it resistance trendline and pulled back for a retest. After that, it made a higher high, confirming the new uptrend. -Are you looking for the best CFD broker? Check our detailed guide- However, after a new high, the price has returned to retest the recently broken 144.02 key level. At the same time, it is trading nearer the 30-SMA, which is another support level. Still, the price is above the SMA and the RSI is slightly over 50, suggesting a bullish bias. Therefore, bulls might return at this support zone to seek new highs. A bounce higher will likely target the 148.01 resistance level. The trend will only change when the price breaks and stays below the SMA. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/05/05/usd-jpy-outlook-yen-reflects-confidence-in-boj-hikes/
2025-05-05 08:55
The GBP/USD forecast shows caution ahead of this week’s BoE policy meeting. The US economy added a bigger-than-expected 177,000 new jobs in April. Tensions between China and the US eased last week. The GBP/USD forecast shows caution ahead of this week’s Bank of England policy meeting. However, the pound remains steady near lows hit on Friday after an upbeat US employment report. At the same time, the dollar steadied last week amid easing trade tensions between China and the US. -Are you looking for forex robots? Check our detailed guide- Market participants are looking forward to Thursday’s Bank of England policy meeting, where policymakers might vote to cut interest rates by 25-bps. Some economists believe the BoE should consider a faster pace for rate cuts. Trump’s tariffs have clouded the outlook for the global economy. Therefore, UK economic growth will also suffer, pressuring the central bank to lower rates. Meanwhile, the pound dropped on Friday after the US released upbeat employment figures. The economy added 177,000 new jobs in April compared to forecasts of a 138,000 increase. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate held steady at 4.2%. Trump escalated his tariffs in April. Therefore, some experts were expecting to see dismal economic figures. However, the labor market remains resilient, justifying the Fed’s cautious stance. At the same time, tensions between China and the US eased last week, allowing the greenback to recover its lost shine. Still, market participants are waiting for a deal to end the ongoing trade war. GBP/USD key events today US ISM Services PMI GBP/USD technical forecast: Bears gear up to test 1.3225 support On the technical side, the GBP/USD price trades below the 30-SMA and the RSI is under 50, suggesting a bearish bias. Bears recently strengthened enough to puncture the 30-SMA after the previous uptrend paused at the 1.3401 resistance level. -Are you looking for the best CFD broker? Check our detailed guide- Here, bulls failed to sustain a move higher, allowing the price to dip below the SMA. However, when it neared the 1.3225 support, bulls returned to make a second attempt at the resistance level. The price punctured above the resistance but was swiftly rejected. At the same time, although it made a higher high, the RSI made a lower one, indicating a bearish divergence. Soon after, bears returned. A break below the 1.3225 support would confirm a new downtrend. Moreover, it would clear the path for GBP/USD to retest the 1.3000 key psychological level. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/05/05/gbp-usd-forecast-traders-brace-for-boe-policy-decision/
2025-05-03 19:33
The USD/CAD weekly forecast shows a slowdown in the US economy. The US economy added 177,000 jobs in April, above estimates of 138,000. Canada’s economy unexpectedly contracted by 0.2%. The USD/CAD weekly forecast shows a slowdown in the US economy that could pressure the Fed to cut rates in June. Ups and downs of USD/CAD The USD/CAD price had a bearish week as most US economic reports signaled an economic slowdown. However, the dollar briefly rebounded on Friday after an upbeat jobs report. -Are you looking for forex robots? Check our detailed guide- Throughout the week, US data pointed to weakness, with vacancies, jobless claims and private employment all missing forecasts. However, the economy added 177,000 jobs in April, above estimates of 138,000. Still, it was slower than the previous reading of 185,000. Meanwhile, the Canadian economy unexpectedly contracted by 0.2%, increasing pressure on the Bank of Canada to resume its easing cycle. Next week’s key events for USD/CAD Next week, market participants will focus on the FOMC policy meeting. Meanwhile, Canada will release its crucial monthly employment report. The Fed will likely keep interest rates unchanged as policymakers wait for more evidence of a deteriorating economy. Data on Friday revealed that the labor market remains stronger than expected. However, traders are increasingly pricing a rate cut in June. Meanwhile, Canada’s employment report will show the state of its labor market, shaping the outlook for Bank of Canada rate cuts. USD/CAD weekly technical forecast: Bears lose momentum near channel support On the technical side, the USD/CAD price trades below the 22-SMA with the RSI under 50, indicating a bearish bias. Since its peak at the top of the chart, the price has made lower highs and lows. At the same time, it has respected solid resistance and support lines, creating a bearish channel. -Are you looking for the best CFD broker? Check our detailed guide- At the moment, bears are challenging the 1.3800 support level. However, price action shows the decline has weakened near the channel support. The candle bodies are smaller. At the same time, the RSI has made a bullish divergence, suggesting fading momentum. If bulls return, the price will likely break above the SMA to retest the channel resistance and the 1.4200 level. The decline will continue as long as the price remains in the channel. The next target will be at the 1.3400 level. On the other hand, a bullish channel breakout would signal a bullish shift in sentiment. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/05/03/usd-cad-weekly-forecast-down-gdp-urges-for-june-rate-cut/
2025-05-03 19:30
The GBP/USD weekly forecast shows a strong US labor sector. US jobs data pointed to a faster-than-expected economic decline. The US added 177,000 new jobs in April. The GBP/USD weekly forecast is slightly bearish as strong US labor sector validates the Fed’s cautious tone. Ups and downs of GBP/USD The GBP/USD price ended the week down after climbing to new highs. Initially, the pound rallied against the dollar amid downbeat US economic data. However, this changed after robust employment figures at the end of the week. -Are you looking for forex robots? Check our detailed guide- US figures on job vacancies, pirate employment and jobless claims pointed to a faster-than-expected economic decline. However, business activity in the manufacturing sector was better than expected. Moreover, the nonfarm payrolls report revealed 177,000 new jobs in April compared to estimates of 138,000. Next week’s key events for GBP/USD Next week, market participants will focus on the Fed and Bank of England policy meetings. Economists expect the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged, while the Bank of England will likely cut rates by 25-bps. The Fed has maintained a cautious tone, with Powell saying there was no hurry to cut interest rates. However, recent downbeat economic data might push the central bank in June. Meanwhile, the BoE is aware of the likely impacts of Trump’s tariffs. Weaker global and UK growth will likely push policymakers to consider a faster easing cycle. GBP/USD weekly technical forecast: Uptrend pauses after recent swing high On the technical side, the GBP/USD price has paused after reaching the 1.3401 key resistance level. Moreover, the price trades above the 22-SMA and the RSI is above 50, suggesting a bullish bias. GBP/USD has maintained a bullish trend, making higher highs and lows. At the same time, the price has respected a trendline as support. -Are you looking for the best CFD broker? Check our detailed guide- The most recent swing started at the support trendline and the 1.2702 level. However, the move slowed near the 1.3401 level. Bulls tried twice to break above the level but failed. Meanwhile, the RSI made a slight bearish divergence, signaling a looming pullback. The price might be ready to retest the 22-SMA. A deeper retreat would retest the support trendline. The bullish bias will remain if the price stays above the SMA or the trendline. Meanwhile, the uptrend will continue with a break above the 1.3401 resistance. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/05/03/gbp-usd-weekly-forecast-strong-nfp-justifies-cautious-fed/
