2024-03-26 08:44

The Swiss National Bank cut interest rates by 25 basis points. Fed policymakers emphasized caution as the central bank prepares to cut rates. The data revealed a drop in consumer sentiment in Australia. The AUD/USD outlook points upwards as the dollar steps back from recent peaks as traders take profits. However, the journey hit a minor bump as Australia unveiled disappointing consumer sentiment figures for March. -Are you interested in learning about the best AI trading forex brokers? Click here for details- The dollar rallied last week as it became clear that major central banks were preparing to cut rates later this year. This came after the Swiss National Bank cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 1.5%. Notably, the move highlighted the more cautious Fed, leading to a rally in the dollar. On Monday, Fed policymakers emphasized caution as the central bank prepares to cut rates. Some, including Raphael Bostic, even lost confidence that inflation would soon reach the 2% target. Furthermore, the currency is subdued ahead of a slow, short week. Investors are now expecting the core PCE price index figures to provide a better look at the state of inflation. If the figures beat forecasts, it could lead to another rally in the dollar, as it would increase doubts about a Fed rate cut in June. Meanwhile, in Australia, data revealed a drop in consumer sentiment due to economic worries. This decline followed the RBA meeting, in which the central bank became more neutral. However, the report shows that consumers have little expectation for rate cuts in the country. This led to a brief decline in AUD/USD before the pair recovered due to the weaker dollar. AUD/USD key events today US CB Consumer Confidence AUD/USD technical outlook: Weak bulls challenge 30-SMA resistance On the technical side, the AUD/USD price is climbing after retesting a support zone comprising the 0.6520 support level and its channel support line. Notably, the price has been trading in a bullish channel, bouncing higher every time it retests the support. At the moment, bulls have taken charge. -Are you interested in learning about the forex indicators? Click here for details- However, price action shows weak momentum, as seen in the small-bodied candles. At the same time, the price is facing the 30-SMA resistance, which might pose a challenge. If the SMA holds firm, the price might break out of its channel to retest the 0.6450 support level. On the other hand, if bulls push above the SMA, the price will likely make a new high above the 0.6625 level. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/03/26/aud-usd-outlook-dollar-retreats-amid-profit-taking/

2024-03-25 12:31

The bias remains bullish despite the current sell-off. Taking out the downtrend line activates a new bullish movement. The US data could bring some action tomorrow. The gold price is trading in the green at $2,171 at the time of writing. The precious looks stubborn enough to post a fresh top above $2,200. In the short term, gold has retreated a little after hitting a new all-time high of 2,222. The XAU/USD also dropped as the greenback saw a whopping comeback on Friday. The yellow metal turned to the downside after the FOMC Press Conference. -Are you interested in learning about the best AI trading forex brokers? Click here for details- However, the bias remains bullish in the medium to long term despite the current jitters. Today, the US New Home Sales could jump from 661K to 675K. This scenario should lift the greenback. Poor US data could send the price of gold higher. Tomorrow, the US data could really shake the markets. The CB Consumer Confidence is expected to jump from 106.7 to 106.9. Durable Goods Orders may announce a 1.2% growth, while Core Durable Goods Orders could report a 0.4% growth. In addition, the S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI, HPI, and the Richmond Manufacturing Index data should be released as well. Positive US figures should help the greenback. As you can see on the hourly chart, the XAU/USD extended its growth after escaping from the falling wedge pattern. Now, the metal has dropped slightly, forming a flag formation, which is a bullish continuation pattern. -Are you interested in learning about the forex indicators? Click here for details- The price challenges the downtrend line, which stands as a dynamic resistance. Taking out this obstacle may confirm that the retreat ended and that the price could come back higher. On the contrary, a false breakout through this dynamic obstacle indicates a deeper drop towards the $2,146-49 support zone. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/03/25/gold-price-correction-forms-a-bullish-flag-eying-2200/

2024-03-25 09:54

Canada’s retail sales fell 0.3% in January from December. Data on Tuesday showed a drop in inflation in Canada. The US economy remains resilient, and inflation is high. The USD/CAD outlook leans bullish, with the pair maintaining proximity to last week’s highs. Notably, the Canadian dollar stumbled amidst disappointing economic data, contrasting with the dollar’s resilience, fueled by upbeat reports. -Are you interested in learning about the best AI trading forex brokers? Click here for details- Data on Friday revealed a decline in Canada’s retail sales, indicating poorer consumer spending. Retail sales fell 0.3% in January from December. A slowdown in the economy will likely put pressure on the Bank of Canada to cut rates. Data on Tuesday showed a drop in inflation in Canada, pushing chances of a June cut above 70%. Major central banks are slowly becoming more dovish as inflation eases and economies start to buckle under the pressure of high borrowing costs. Last week, the Swiss National Bank became the first major central bank to cut interest rates. Moreover, markets expect the European Central Bank and the Bank of England to start cutting rates in June. On the other hand, the US economy remains resilient, and inflation is still a problem. Therefore, although markets expect the first cut in June, there is doubt. Data last week showed continued strength in the US economy. Policymakers might worry about cutting interest rates too soon as it could lead to renewed inflation. Consequently, the dollar ended the week with gains. Still, USD/CAD retreated slightly on Monday as the Canadian dollar strengthened on rising oil prices. Oil rose amid supply worries fueled by geopolitical tensions. USD/CAD key events today There won’t be any major economic releases today from Canada or the US. As a result, volatility might be low. USD/CAD technical outlook: Bulls pause at 1.3600 resistance On the technical side, the USD/CAD price is pulling back after retesting the 1.3600 key resistance level. However, there is no clear direction in the price as it bounces between the 1.3475 support and the 1.3600 resistance levels. Moreover, the price has made several failed attempts to break out of this range area. -Are you interested in learning about the forex indicators? Click here for details- At the moment, bulls are in the lead. However, the price has paused at the range resistance, and bears have resurfaced. Therefore, there is a chance the price will fall back to the range’s support. However, bulls might break above 1.3600 if the 30-SMA holds as support. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/03/25/usd-cad-outlook-data-weakens-loonie-strengthens-dollar/

2024-03-25 08:36

The Bank of Japan made a significant shift in policy when it hiked interest rates. Market participants shifted their focus to the possible pace and size of future BoJ hikes. The dollar closed last week with gains as US data revealed a resilient economy. The USD/JPY forecast leans towards bullish territory on Monday, with the dollar showcasing resilience against a softened yen. Despite this, the recent rally has paused due to caution surrounding a potential intervention to bolster the yen. -Are you interested in learning about the best AI trading forex brokers? Click here for details- Last week, the Bank of Japan made a significant shift in policy when it hiked interest rates. As a result, interest rates went from negative to positive territory. Ideally, such a move should have strengthened the yen. However, markets had already priced in the move. For months, investors had speculated of a looming shift in policy, strengthening the yen. Therefore, there was no surprise when the central bank finally hiked rates. Furthermore, market participants shifted their focus to the possible pace and size of future rate hikes, which was disappointing. Although Japan has started its hiking cycle, markets expect it to be slow and gradual. Consequently, the rate differential gap between Japan and the US will remain large for some time. For this reason, the yen has lost ground, leading to warnings of a possible intervention. Japanese authorities have warned that the current move is based on speculation rather than fundamentals. Therefore, there is a high chance of intervention if the yen weakens beyond the $152.00 mark. Meanwhile, the dollar strengthened on Friday, closing the week with gains as US data revealed a resilient economy. Consequently, there is doubt whether the Fed will implement the first rate cut in June. USD/JPY key events today The pair might drift sideways as no high-impact events are scheduled for today. USD/JPY technical forecast: Bullish rally stalls above 150.75 barrier On the technical side, the USD/JPY price has paused its rally after breaching the 150.75 key resistance level. Bullish momentum reached its maximum level when the RSI got overbought, allowing the price to pause and pull back. The price pulled back to retest 150.75 and is yet to make a new high. -Are you interested in learning about the forex indicators? Click here for details- However, the bullish bias remains strong because the price trades above the 30-SMA, and the RSI is above 50. Therefore, the price will likely make a new swing when the 30-SMA catches up. This would retest the 152.01 resistance level, breaking above or bouncing lower. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/03/25/usd-jpy-forecast-rally-pauses-on-intervention-threats/

2024-03-23 12:12

Data revealed a bigger-than-expected drop in Canada’s inflation. The dollar initially weakened after a dovish FOMC meeting. Next week, traders will get to assess GDP data from the US and Canada. The USD/CAD weekly forecast remains optimistic, fueled by the relentless strength of the US economy showcased in the latest data. Ups and downs of USD/CAD After fluctuating in the week, USD/CAD ended up, with the dollar closing the week on the front foot. As the week began, data revealed a bigger-than-expected drop in Canada’s inflation, leading to increased bets for a rate cut. As a result, the Canadian dollar weakened. -Are you interested in learning about the best AI trading forex brokers? Click here for details- Meanwhile, the dollar initially weakened after a dovish FOMC meeting where Powell maintained that inflation was declining. However, as the week ended, it recovered amid upbeat US economic data, allowing USD/CAD to close on a bullish candle. Next week’s key events for USD/CAD Next week, traders will get to assess GDP data from the US and Canada. Moreover, there will be a report from the US on durable goods orders. The GDP reports for both countries will have a big impact on USD/CAD as they will reveal the impact of higher interest rates. Therefore, lower-than-expected readings could put pressure on the Fed and the Bank of Canada to cut interest rates. On the other hand, upbeat readings would allow the central banks to keep higher interest rates for longer. Meanwhile, the US durable goods orders report will show the state of manufacturing and consumer spending in the country. These will also show whether higher interest rates are having an impact on the economy. Therefore, the results will affect rate-cut bets. USD/CAD weekly technical forecast: Weak bullish momentum faces 1.3600 barrier On the technical side, USD/CAD has traded in a shallow and tight bullish channel since mid-January. Although bulls have tried to make higher highs, the price is sticking close to the 22-SMA. At the same time, the RSI has stayed near 50 and has not touched the overbought region. This is a sign that although bulls are in control, they have weak momentum. -Are you interested in learning about the forex indicators? Click here for details- The shallow, bullish move is now facing strong resistance at the 1.3600 key level. Given the weak bullish momentum, the price might fail to break above. This would allow bears to take over by breaking out of the channel. If bears take control, the price will likely drop to 1.3200. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/03/23/usd-cad-weekly-forecast-resilient-economy-boosts-greenback/

2024-03-23 09:13

The Reserve Bank of Australia held rates on Tuesday and took on a more neutral tone. The Fed had a more dovish policy meeting, weakening the dollar. The US released better-than-expected manufacturing PMI data. The AUD/USD weekly forecast shows bearish prospects as the dollar flexes its muscles once again, fueled by the resilience of the US economy. Ups and downs of AUD/USD AUD/USD had a bearish week where the RBA was less hawkish. Notably, the Reserve Bank of Australia held rates on Tuesday and took on a more neutral tone, reducing rate hike talks. As a result, rate-cut bets increased. Meanwhile, the Fed had a more dovish policy meeting, leading to a decline in the dollar. -Are you interested in learning about the best AI trading forex brokers? Click here for details- On Thursday, the pair soared when Australia released a blockbuster jobs report. Employment jumped while the unemployment rate fell, indicating a tight labor market. Finally, the pair fell when the US released better-than-expected manufacturing PMI data. Moreover, initial jobless claims fell last week, indicating tightness in the labor market. Next week’s key events for AUD/USD Next week might be relatively slow after a week packed with high-impact events. Investors will only focus on data from the US, including the durable goods orders and the gross domestic product. These reports will show the state of the economy, influencing the Fed’s rate cut outlook. The orders for durable goods are a good indicator of the manufacturing sector, which makes up a big part of the US economy. Moreover, it shows the state of consumer spending. If consumers can afford to make big purchases, it is a good indicator of a strong economy. Meanwhile, the gross domestic product will show economic growth and whether higher interest rates have impacted the economy. AUD/USD weekly technical forecast: 0.5 Fib resistance holds firm On the technical side, AUD/USD is falling after finding resistance at the 0.5 key Fib retracement level. Bears had taken control when the price broke below the 22-SMA and went on to make lower lows. However, the decline paused when bulls broke above the 22-SMA, allowing the AUD/USD to recover. -Are you interested in learning about the forex indicators? Click here for details- Unfortunately, the rebound was shallow, showing it was a corrective move. As a result, bears took back control when the price retraced 50% of the previous downtrend. However, to confirm the continuation of the previous trend, bears must start making lower lows and highs. If the decline continues next week, the price will target the 0.6301 support level. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/03/23/aud-usd-weekly-forecast-upbeat-data-ignites-dollar-strength/