2024-03-20 12:24

The bias is bearish as long as it stays below the immediate downtrend line. The FOMC should bring high volatility. Taking out the downtrend line indicates an upside continuation. The gold price is trading in the red at $2,152 at the time of writing. The precious metal seems determined to extend its sell-off. One significant factor contributing to gold’s weakness is the dollar’s outperformance in the wake of the FOMC rate decision and monetary policy statement. -Are you interested in learning about the Bitcoin price prediction? Click here for details- Yesterday, the BOJ delivered a 0.20% rate hike, so the BOJ Policy Rate jumped from -0.10% to 0.10%, while the RBA left the monetary policy unchanged. Furthermore, the Canadian CPI reported a 0.3% growth versus the estimated 0.6% growth, but it was above the 0.0% growth in the previous reporting period. Gold remains under pressure also because the US Building Permits and Housing Starts came in better than expected. Today, the United Kingdom Consumer Price Index reported only a 3.4% growth versus the 3.5% growth estimated after the 4.0% growth in the previous reporting period. At the same time, Core CPI came in worse than expected as well. Later, the FOMC should drive the markets. The FED is expected to keep the Federal Funds Rate at 5.50%, but the FOMC Statement and the FOMC Press Conference should bring high volatility. Technically, the price retested the downtrend line, which is a dynamic resistance. As long as it stays below it, the metal could drop deeper. -Are you interested in learning about the forex signals telegram group? Click here for details- The former lows of $2,148 and $2,146 represent immediate downside obstacles. Making a new lower low could activate more declines. The channel’s downside line is seen as a potential target if the rate continues to drop. On the contrary, staying above $2,146 and making a valid breakout through the downtrend line indicates that the correction ended and that we may have an upside continuation. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/03/20/gold-price-turns-bearish-near-2150-ahead-of-fomc/

2024-03-20 10:13

Market participants are focused on the Fed policy meeting. Markets expect the Fed to cut rates by a total of 73 bps this year. ECB’s Martins Kazaks said he supports market expectations for three cuts in 2024. Today’s EUR/USD forecast paints a picture of bearish sentiment as the dollar flexes its muscles in anticipation of the upcoming FOMC policy meeting. Meanwhile, ECB policymakers are getting more comfortable with the market’s rate-cut expectations, weakening the euro. -Are you interested in learning about the Bitcoin price prediction? Click here for details- Market participants are focused on the Fed policy meeting, which concludes later in the day. The Fed will likely hold rates at current levels, but the focus will be on the press conference and the economic projections. Investors are eager to hear what policymakers will say regarding the recent inflation figures. Powell’s press conference might shed light on the outlook for rate cuts in 2024, which has changed significantly since the start of the year. At the moment, markets expect the Fed to cut rates by a total of 73 bps this year. This is a big drop from 150 bps at the start of the year. If policymakers take on a hawkish tone, this figure could further decline. Moreover, investors might push expectations for the first rate cut to July. On the other hand, European Central Bank policymakers are ready for the first rate cut in June. Notably, ECB policymaker Martins Kazaks said on Tuesday that he supported market expectations for three cuts in 2024. The outlook for interest rate cuts seems much clearer in the Eurozone than in the US. While ECB policymakers are ready for cuts, Fed policymakers could remain cautious amid high inflation. Consequently, EUR/USD could witness more declines. EUR/USD key events today Federal Funds Rate FOMC Economic Projections FOMC Statement FOMC Press Conference EUR/USD technical forecast: Channel breakout On the charts, the EUR/USD trend has reversed from bullish to bearish. The bears confirmed the new direction when they broke out of their bullish channel. Moreover, the price retested the channel support before making lower lows. -Are you interested in learning about the forex signals telegram group? Click here for details- At the same time, the 30-SMA now faces down, showing a downtrend. Meanwhile, the RSI trades in bearish territory below 50, indicating solid bearish momentum. The price was ready to reverse when it met the 1.0950 barrier. It made a double top before breaking below the SMA and the bullish channel. Given the strong bearish bias, the price might soon retest the 1.0800 key support level. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/03/20/eur-usd-forecast-dollar-gains-as-investors-await-fomc/

2024-03-20 08:40

The dollar is gaining ground as traders prepare for the outcome of the FOMC policy meeting. Markets expect the Fed to hold rates at Wednesday’s meeting. Data on Tuesday revealed a significant decline in Canada’s inflation. The USD/CAD price analysis is bullish on Wednesday, with the greenback on the front foot ahead of the FOMC meeting. Meanwhile, the Canadian dollar faces headwinds as recent data exposed a notable slump in inflation. -Are you interested in learning about the Bitcoin price prediction? Click here for details- Markets expect the Fed to hold rates at today’s meeting. At the same time, there is speculation that policymakers will push back expectations for rate cuts after the recent hot inflation figures. Consequently, the dollar has remained steady since last week. Additionally, investors have scaled back expectations for the first cut in June. Bets fell significantly after Goldman Sachs said it expected 3 Fed cuts this year, down from 4. As a result, the chances of a cut in June fell below 50%. Meanwhile, the situation in Canada is quite different. Data on Tuesday revealed a significant decline in inflation. Notably, annual inflation fell to 2.8% while core figures hit a 2-year low. This was a big divergence from the US. After the report, the chances of a June cut by the Bank of Canada rose from 50% to 75%. Canada’s economy is weakening. Therefore, if the BoC delays cuts beyond June, it could further hurt the economy. However, if they cut before the Fed, it could significantly weaken the Canadian dollar and negatively impact the economy. USD/CAD key events today Federal Funds Rate FOMC Economic Projections FOMC Statement FOMC Press Conference USD/CAD technical price analysis: Bearish engulfer signals a reversal On the technical side, the bias for USD/CAD is bullish as the price has risen to retest the 1.3600 key resistance level. At the same time, it trades well above the 30-SMA with the RSI above 50, a sign that bulls are in the lead. Bulls took control when the price failed to trade below the 1.3450 key support level. They pushed above the 30-SMA and the 1.3525 resistance, making higher highs and lows. -Are you interested in learning about the forex signals telegram group? Click here for details- However, price action at the 1.3600 key level shows that bears might take over soon. The price has made a bearish engulfing candle that could lead to a break below the 30-SMA to retest the 1.3450 support level. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/03/20/usd-cad-price-analysis-loonie-weakens-after-downbeat-inflation/

2024-03-19 12:18

The USD/CAD bias is bullish despite minor retreats. The false breakouts signaled exhausted buyers. The Canadian inflation data should bring sharp movements. The USD/CAD price is trading at 1.3567 at the time of writing. The pair seems overbought in the short term. The greenback remains strong which dominates the currency market. -Are you interested in learning about the Bitcoin price prediction? Click here for details- The price increased even though the Canadian IPPI and RMPI came in better than expected yesterday. On the contrary, the US NAHB Housing Market Index also came in better than expected. The USD appreciated versus its rivals after the US reported higher inflation in February. Today, the Canadian inflation figures could be decisive. The Consumer Price Index is expected to report a 0.6% growth in February versus a 0.0% growth in January. In addition, the Core CPI, Median CPI, Trimmed CPI, and Common CPI data will also be released. Higher inflation could lift the CAD. On the other hand, the US is to release the Building Permits indicator, which is expected at 1.50M above 1.47M in the previous reporting period, while Housing Starts could jump from 1.33M to 1.43 M. The FED will keep the monetary policy tomorrow, but the FOMC Press Conference should shake the markets. Technically, the USD/CAD price developed a strong upward movement after registering a false breakdown with a great fall below the 1.3430 static support. -Are you interested in learning about the forex signals telegram group? Click here for details- Now, it has reached the median line (ml) of the ascending pitchfork, representing a dynamic resistance. The false breakout through this line and above the weekly R1 of 1.3573 signaled exhausted buyers and indicated a potential sell-off. After such impressive growth, a correction could be expected. The price could come back down, trying to accumulate more bullish energy before developing a new bullish momentum. Taking out the median line (ml) and creating a new higher high activates an upside continuation. The bias is bullish in the short term despite minor retreats. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/03/19/usd-cad-price-pauses-by-1-3580-focus-on-canadian-cpi/

2024-03-19 10:45

The RBA held rates but was less hawkish. RBA Governor Michelle Bullock failed to provide clear rate-cut guidance. The dollar was steady ahead of the FOMC meeting that might shape the Fed’s rate cut outlook. The AUD/USD price analysis indicates more downside potential as the pair declines following the Reserve Bank of Australia’s policy meeting. Notably, the RBA held rates but was less hawkish, noting that inflation had progressed and the economy was slowing down. Consequently, rate-cut bets increased. -Are you interested in learning about the Bitcoin price prediction? Click here for details- At its last meeting, the RBA had been hawkish, stating there was still a chance of a hike. However, this tone shifted on Tuesday to a more neutral one. Still, RBA Governor Michelle Bullock failed to provide clear rate-cut guidance. The RBA will likely take a cautious stance, assessing data as it comes. Before the meeting, markets had expected the RBA to cut rates by 37 bps in 2024. However, after the meeting, this increased to 43bps. The RBA is working to lower inflation to a target of between 2 and 3%. Meanwhile, the dollar was steady ahead of the FOMC meeting that might shape the Fed’s rate cut outlook. While markets expect the Fed to hold rates, there is speculation that policymakers will take on a less dovish stance. Notably, recent data has shown continued resilience in the US economy with pockets of weakness. At the same time, inflation beat forecasts, leading to a decline in rate-cut bets. Currently, the probability of a cut in June is below 60%. A hawkish Fed at tomorrow’s meeting could push this value below 50%. AUD/USD key events today There are no more key events today that might significantly impact AUD/USD. As a result, traders will keep digesting the outcome of the RBA policy meeting. AUD/USD technical price analysis: Bearish breakout signals change in direction On the technical side, AUD/USD has made a significant bearish move, breaking out of its bullish channel. Consequently, the bias is strongly bearish. The price now trades well below the 30-SMA, showing a steep decline. Meanwhile, the RSI shows strong bearish momentum in the oversold region. -Are you interested in learning about the forex signals telegram group? Click here for details- Although the price has broken out of its bullish channel, bears must confirm the breakout before it continues lower. To do this, the price must retest the channel support and bounce lower for a lower low. This would allow bears to retest the 0.6500 and 0.6450 support levels. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/03/19/aud-usd-price-analysis-aussie-dips-as-rba-alters-tone/

2024-03-19 08:48

The Bank of Japan hiked interest rates on Tuesday for the first time in 17 years. Japan’s central bank intends to continue with easy monetary conditions. Traders are awaiting the FOMC policy meeting on Wednesday. The USD/JPY outlook shines brightly with bullish sentiment, driven by the yen’s decline as investors take profits after the BoJ’s policy shift. Notably, the Bank of Japan hiked interest rates on Tuesday for the first time in 17 years. However, markets had already priced in such a move. Therefore, it was not a surprise. -Are you interested in learning about the Bitcoin price prediction? Click here for details- Moreover, Japan’s central bank intends to continue with easy monetary conditions, which might weigh on the yen. At the same time, the yen remains vulnerable to decisions by the Fed, which usually have a big impact on the currency. Traders are now awaiting the FOMC policy meeting on Wednesday for more clues on the Fed’s rate cut outlook. Recently, the dollar strengthened after data revealed persistently high inflation in the US. Moreover, bets for a June rate cut fell as investors scaled back expectations. Goldman Sachs recently revised its forecast for Fed rate cuts in 2024 from 4 to 3, meaning the Fed will likely hold high rates for longer. Therefore, there is a chance the Fed will be hawkish at the meeting. Such an outcome would further strengthen the dollar and push USD/JPY back to the 152.00 key level. A hawkish Fed could also push expectations for the first rate cut to July. USD/JPY key events today After the BoJ policy meeting, there are no more significant events today. Therefore, investors will keep absorbing the policy shift. USD/JPY technical outlook: Price soars beyond resistance zone On the technical side, the USD/JPY price has broken above a resistance zone comprising the 0.618 Fib and the 149.01 key levels. The breakout shows massive momentum as the price made a solid bullish candle, pushing well above the 30-SMA. At the same time, the RSI entered the overbought region, indicating solid bullish momentum. -Are you interested in learning about the forex signals telegram group? Click here for details- Currently, the price is approaching the 150.75 key resistance level, where it might pause or pull back before continuing higher. A pullback could retest the recently broken resistance zone or the 30-SMA support, where bulls would resume the uptrend. Meanwhile, a break above the 150.75 resistance level would allow the price to retest higher resistance levels. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/03/19/usd-jpy-outlook-bojs-policy-shift-sends-yen-tumbling/