2025-06-12 11:02
The EUR/USD outlook is positive amid a hawkish ECB and a weaker dollar. Tariff concerns and downbeat US CPI continue to weigh on the dollar. Trade talks and US PPI remain the limelight events for now. The EUR/USD outlook stays strongly bullish as the pair breaks multi-month highs, nearing 1.1600 during the European session. The cooler US CPI print weighed heavily on the US dollar on Wednesday, lending room to the euro to maintain the bullish momentum. –Are you interested to learn more about crypto signals? Check our detailed guide- The Federal Reserve may cut the rates after summer, as the series of negative data suggests. According to the FedWatch tool, the probability of a rate cut in September rose to 60% from 50% previously. The dollar’s mild recovery amid the trade truce between the US and China remained short-lived as President Trump announced to write letters to the trading partners who showed no will to negotiate in good faith. There is no major event from the Eurozone this week. However, a series of commentaries from the ECB members has revealed President Lagarde’s message of ending the monetary policy cycle after reducing rates by 200 bps in the eight meetings. Moreover, Lagarde also emphasized the role of the euro as a global reserve currency due to the ongoing economic shift. She said the role of the euro may be boosted in international trade due to currency shifts. On the trade front, the EU-US negotiations may remain in the limelight as we are approaching to the deadline of July 09. EU officials believe that the deadline will be extended. Key Events Ahead US PPI US unemployment claims EUR/USD technical outlook: Bulls aiming for 1.1600 breakout The EUR/USD is trading slightly above its swing high of 1.1580 marked on April 21. The bullish trendline and the 20-day SMA continue to maintain the buying pressure. However, the daily RSI value is near 70.0, which indicates a slightly overbought condition. –Are you interested to learn more about forex robots? Check our detailed guide- Alternatively, a clear fall below the 20-day SMA can change the sentiment. Both the 20-SMA and the trendline support coincide around the 1.1350 area. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/06/12/eur-usd-outlook-bulls-pounce-1-16-amid-hawkish-ecb/
2025-06-12 10:22
The GBP/USD forecast remains supported despite downbeat UK GDP data. Cooler US CPI and tariff uncertainty keep the dollar weaker. Market participants are now eyeing US PPI and unemployment claims data due today. The GBP/USD forecast remains broadly bullish amid the dollar’s weakness. However, today’s UK GDP data reported by the ONS showed economic contraction faster than expected. On Wednesday, the price saw a significant rise near 1.3600 as the US CPI reported softer-than-expected, raising concerns for the Fed’s “higher for longer” policy. –Are you interested to learn more about crypto signals? Check our detailed guide- The British pound slipped from the daily highs above 1.3580 towards the 1.3525 area before finding a renewed strength. The pair is trading at 1.3580 at the time of writing. The UK GDP was expected to shrink -0.1% against the previous reading of 0.2% for March. However, the figures came at -0.3% for April, missing estimate, putting the pound under pressure. The ONS reported that the sharp fall in the GDP is attributed to the reduced goods exports to the US. The last four months reported consecutive rises in the economy, while April saw the largest monthly fall. The higher-than-projected decline in the UK economy combined with the rising unemployment may force the Bank of England to continue with easing policy. In May, the bank had opted for the gradual and careful easing by slashing the rates by 25 bps to 4.5%. These economic shocks may increase the speculation of BoE’s more rate cuts. On the other side of the equation, the US dollar remains weak on Thursday as President Trump threatened to send the letters to the countries not negotiating in good faith to accept his imposed tariffs. Key Events Ahead US PPI US Unemployment Claims GBP/USD technical forecast: Broad consolidation within uptrend The GBP/USD daily chart shows a strong bullish trend as the price moves north within the uptrend. The pair remains strongly supported by the 20-day SMA. However, the pair shows consolidation within the range of 1.3480 to 1.3616. The 14-day RSI is at 60.0, which shows the pair is not overbought yet and has a tendency to gain further. –Are you interested to learn more about forex robots? Check our detailed guide- Alternatively, breaking the 20-day SMA may gather strong selling traction, and the price may slip towards the lower boundary of the channel at 1.3270 ahead of 1.3200. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/06/12/gbp-usd-forecast-buyers-regain-despite-downbeat-uk-gdp/
2025-06-11 11:53
The USD/JPY forecast shows an increasing likelihood that the BoJ will delay rate hikes to next year. Talks between China and the US ended, easing trade war fears. Traders are paying close attention to the upcoming US CPI report. The USD/JPY forecast shows an increasing likelihood that the Bank of Japan will delay rate hikes to next year. Meanwhile, talks between the US and China ended with few details. At the same time, market participants are awaiting the US CPI report for clues on the future of Fed rate cuts. –Are you interested to learn more about crypto signals? Check our detailed guide- A Reuters poll on Wednesday revealed that a slim majority of economists believe the BoJ will hike in Q1. According to them, the impacts of Trump’s tariffs will force policymakers to delay hikes. Meanwhile, top officials at the bank have reiterated that they will continue to hike rates when inflation and growth re-accelerate. Elsewhere, talks between China and the US ended, easing trade war fears. However, there were few details on the outcome of the talks. Still, just the fact that they met and discussed trade was enough to show progress in negotiations. Meanwhile, traders are paying close attention to the upcoming US CPI report. The data might show a 0.2% increase in price pressures in May. Meanwhile, the annual figure might increase from the previous 2.3% to 2.5%. If inflation is hot, it will confirm fears that Trump’s tariffs have hiked price pressures. Such an outcome would mean more delays on Fed rate cuts. USD/JPY key events today US core CPI m/m US CPI m/m US CPI y/y USD/JPY technical forecast: Broken trendline yells for more gains On the technical side, the USD/JPY price has broken above a solid resistance trendline, a sign that bulls might be ready to take charge. The price trades above the 30-SMA, with the RSI over 50, showing bulls are in the lead. However, they are facing a solid hurdle at the 145.00 key level. –Are you interested to learn more about forex robots? Check our detailed guide- For some time, the price has been making lower highs. However, it has failed to make lower lows as the 142.55 held firm as support. If bears cannot make lower lows, bulls will likely get stronger and start making higher highs and lows. A break above the 145.00 key resistance level will clear the path for USD/JPY to retest the 147.00 key level. On the other hand, if the level holds firm, the price will likely drop back below the trendline to retest the 142.55 support. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/06/11/usd-jpy-forecast-economists-push-back-boj-hike-timeline/
2025-06-11 10:02
The GBP/USD price analysis suggests increasing expectations for Bank of England rate cuts. The UK labor market was weaker in the three months to April. Market participants are awaiting the US consumer inflation report. The GBP/USD price analysis suggests increasing expectations for Bank of England rate cuts this year after downbeat UK employment data. Meanwhile, market participants remain cautious ahead of crucial US inflation figures. –Are you interested to learn more about crypto signals? Check our detailed guide- Data on Tuesday revealed that the UK labor market was weaker in the three months to April. The unemployment rate reached an almost four-year high, rising from 4.5% to 4.6%. At the same time, wage growth slowed sharply from 5.5% to 5.2%. The downbeat figures increased BoE rate cut expectations and weighed on the pound. Before the report, traders were 39-bps of rate cuts this year. This figure increased to 48-bps after the data. Meanwhile, market participants are awaiting the US consumer inflation report, scheduled for release on Wednesday. According to estimates, inflation increased by 0.2% in May. Meanwhile, the annual figure increased by 2.5%, above the previous reading of 2.3%. A hotter-than-expected reading would confirm the Fed’s fears that Trump’s tariffs have increased price pressure. Moreover, it would lower Fed rate cut expectations, boosting the dollar. On the other hand, if inflation is softer, it will weigh on the dollar by increasing bets for a Fed rate cut. GBP/USD key events today US core CPI m/m US CPI m/m US CPI y/y GBP/USD technical price analysis: Bears find their feet below the 30-SMA On the technical side, the pound is finding its feet below the 30-SMA after a recent shift in sentiment. Meanwhile, the RSI trades nearer the oversold region, indicating solid bearish momentum. However, after a strong break below the SMA, momentum has eased, and price action shows hesitation to continue lower. The price is now making small-bodied candles. –Are you interested to learn more about forex robots? Check our detailed guide- Nevertheless, the bearish bias has strengthened, and the path is clear for GBP/USD to reach the 1.3400 support level. A break below this level will strengthen the bearish bias and allow the price to target the 1.3200 support. However, if the level holds firm, bulls might return for a pullback. However, the bearish bias will remain strong as long as the price stays below the 30-SMA. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/06/11/gbp-usd-price-analysis-soft-jobs-stoke-boe-rate-cut-odds/
2025-06-10 12:37
The GBP/USD price analysis shows the pound giving up its gains from the previous session. The greenback recovered as market participants watched trade talks between China and the US. Traders are awaiting the US CPI report, which will provide clues about the outlook for Fed rate cuts. The GBP/USD price analysis shows the pound giving up its gains from the previous session amid dollar strength. The greenback recovered as market participants watched trade talks between China and the US in London. Meanwhile, traders are also preparing for the US consumer inflation report and the UK’s spending plans. Downbeat UK claimant count data also ignited a sell-off. –Are you interested to learn more about crypto signals? Check our detailed guide- After a call between the US and Chinese presidents, the two countries agreed to meet and discuss trade matters in London. The talks started after Trump accused China of not being true to their recent trade deal. Recently, the two countries agreed to slash tariffs for the next 90 days. Moreover, this deal paused a raging trade war that had dimmed the outlook for the global economy. Therefore, any conflicts on trade revive tensions and fears for both economies. Meanwhile, talks boost investor confidence. However, it remains unclear whether the two countries will reach an agreement. Meanwhile, traders are awaiting the US CPI report, which will provide clues about the outlook for Fed rate cuts. At the same time, a UK spending plan might shape the outlook for the economy and monetary policy. GBP/USD key events today Traders are not looking forward to any significant releases from the UK or the US. As a result, all focus will remain on trade talks. GBP/USD technical price analysis: Bears show strength below the 30-SMA On the technical side, the GBP/USD price has broken below the 30-SMA, indicating a bearish shift in sentiment. At the same time, the price has made a solid red candle below the SMA, confirming strength in the new move. Currently, the price trades well below the SMA, with the RSI under 50, suggesting a bearish bias. –Are you interested to learn more about forex robots? Check our detailed guide- The shift comes after the previous rally paused at the 1.3603 resistance level and made a bearish divergence. This weakness allowed bears to gain momentum and take charge by pushing the price below the SMA. Bears can now aim for the next support at the 1.3400 level. A break below this level would strengthen the bearish bias by making a lower low. On the other hand, if bears fail to achieve this, the price will bounce higher. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/06/10/gbp-usd-price-analysis-gains-reversed-amid-poor-uk-jobs/
2025-06-10 09:30
The EUR/USD outlook shows optimism over the ongoing trade talks between China and the US. Market participants are eagerly awaiting the US inflation report. Traders expect the next Fed rate cut in October. The EUR/USD outlook shows optimism over the ongoing trade talks between China and the US, which is supporting the dollar. However, the price continues to fluctuate as the outcome of the talks remains uncertain. At the same time, market participants remain cautious ahead of the US inflation figures. –Are you interested to learn more about crypto signals? Check our detailed guide- Trump recently accused China of violating some of the requirements in the trade deal with the US. This raised concerns about a potential resurgence of trade tensions. However, a call between the two top leaders resulted in an agreement to hold talks in London. If these talks are successful, the dollar will rally. The opposite is also true. Meanwhile, with no immediate catalysts, market participants are looking forward to the US inflation report. Soft numbers will increase bets for Fed rate cuts. On the other hand, if inflation is hot, policymakers will find more reason to delay rate cuts. Last week, the US released an upbeat employment report, which led to a decline in expectations for a Fed rate cut. Traders now expect the next cut in October. Meanwhile, in the Eurozone, traders are pricing a looming end to the ECB’s easing cycle. EUR/USD key events today Market participants do not expect any key reports from the Eurozone or the US. Therefore, the pair might consolidate ahead of inflation figures. EUR/USD technical outlook: SMA break signals sentiment shift On the technical side, the EUR/USD price has broken below the 30-SMA, indicating a bearish shift in sentiment. At the same time, the RSI has broken below 50, showing stronger bearish momentum. –Are you interested to learn more about forex robots? Check our detailed guide- Bulls have been in the lead, keeping the price mostly above the 30-SMA. However, bears punctured the SMA once before the price broke back above. This was the first sign that bullish momentum was easing. After that, bulls tried but failed to break above the 1.1450 key resistance level. Instead, the price made a large wick above the level, indicating a rejection. Moreover, the RSI made a bearish divergence, showing fading bullish momentum. As a result, the price broke below the 30-SMA. If bears maintain this new move, the price will likely drop to retest the 1.1250 key support level. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/06/10/eur-usd-outlook-dollar-strengthens-on-us-china-trade-talks/
