2024-02-16 10:30

Investors exercised caution ahead of the US wholesale inflation report. USD/JPY fell after the US retail sales report missed forecasts. Japanese authorities have warned of possible action to stop excessive declines in the yen. Friday’s USD/JPY price analysis unveils a bullish stance, driven by the dollar’s resurgence, setting the stage for a fifth consecutive week of gains. Yet, investors trod carefully in anticipation of the US wholesale inflation report. –Are you interested to learn more about forex options trading? Check our detailed guide- On Thursday, USD/JPY fell after the US retail sales report missed forecasts. A significant drop in US sales in January indicated a slowdown in the economy. This led to a momentary pause in the decline of Fed rate-cut bets. Consequently, the dollar fell, allowing the yen to go below the $150 level. However, the pair recovered on Friday as investors awaited more data for insights into the Fed’s rate-cut timing. Notably, Fed’s Raphael Bostic said on Thursday that he was not ready to endorse rate cuts. Still, he acknowledged that the Fed had made much progress in lowering inflation. Meanwhile, investors are cautious as the yen hovers around the $150 level, which could prompt an intervention. Recent yen weakness has been a result of the stronger dollar. Moreover, investors are readjusting expectations on how aggressively the BoJ will hike rates. Recent data revealed that Japan’s economy slipped into recession at the end of 2023. Consequently, the BoJ might shift its policy slower than markets expect. Japanese authorities have warned of possible action to stop excessive declines in the yen. However, as their verbal warning loses effectiveness, they might need to take action in the market to strengthen the yen. USD/JPY key events today The US Producer Price Index report US preliminary UoM consumer sentiment report USD/JPY technical price analysis: Bears make a feeble effort to breach channel support On the technical side, USD/JPY has made a weak attempt to break below its bullish channel support. At the same time, it punctured the 30-SMA support line. However, the RSI stayed in bullish territory above 50, supporting bullish momentum. -If you are interested in knowing about scalping forex brokers, then read our guidelines to get started- The price is trapped near the 150.00 critical psychological level. Therefore, bears must detach from this level and start making lower lows for the trend to reverse. Moreover, the price must start respecting the 30-SMA as resistance. However, if 150.00 holds firm as support, the price will soon rise to retest the 151.00 level. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/02/16/usd-jpy-price-analysis-bulls-eying-5th-consecutive-weekly-gain/

2024-02-16 09:14

ECB’s Francois Villeroy said the central bank should not wait too long before starting rate cuts. There was a bigger-than-expected decline in US retail sales in January. Markets expect 94-bps of rate cuts in 2024. The EUR/USD outlook took a bullish turn, propelled by slightly dovish commentary from ECB policymaker Francois Villeroy. Moreover, the dollar was weak after a sharp decline in the previous session due to poor sales data. –Are you interested to learn more about forex options trading? Check our detailed guide- On Friday, the ECB’s Francois Villeroy said that the central bank should not wait too long before starting rate cuts. According to him, it would be better to start early and cut gradually than to wait too long and do it aggressively. Meanwhile, on Thursday, ECB president Christine Lagarde sounded more hawkish. According to her, the central bank will likely hold off on rate cuts to avoid prolonging high inflation. Notably, Eurozone inflation has been declining. However, most policymakers need more confirmation that it will not start rising again. In the US, the dollar weakened after a dismal retail sales report. A bigger-than-expected decline in retail sales in January indicated poor consumer spending. Moreover, it showed that the economy was slowing down. However, this report had little impact on the outlook for rate cuts. Although bets for May edged higher, most traders now believe the first Fed cut will come in June. Notably, the initial jobless claims report from the US showed a still-tight labor market. This report continued the recent trend of upbeat US data, leading to a decline in rate-cut bets. As a result, markets now expect 94bps of rate cuts in 2024, a significant decline from 160bps at the end of last year. EUR/USD key events today US core PPI m/m US PPI m/m Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment EUR/USD technical outlook: Bullish sentiment emerges above 30-SMA On the charts, sentiment has shifted from bearish to bullish as the price has broken above the 30-SMA resistance. The bullish move came after the price paused at the 1.0701 support level. Additionally, the price started making large-bodied bullish candles that broke above the SMA. -If you are interested in knowing about scalping forex brokers, then read our guidelines to get started- Looking at the RSI, it is clear that bullish momentum is stronger now than it was the first time the price rose to retest the 1.0800 resistance level. Consequently, there is a higher chance bulls will break above 1.0800 to retest the 1.0900 critical resistance level. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/02/16/eur-usd-outlook-euro-surges-after-villeroys-less-dovishness/

2024-02-15 11:32

XAU/USD seems determined to rebound and recover after registering false breakdowns below the median line. The US data should move the price today. The S1 is seen as a potential upside target. The gold price turned to the upside and is trading at 1996 at the time of writing. The weakening dollar helped the XAU/USD buyers to take it higher in the short term. –Are you interested to learn more about forex options trading? Check our detailed guide- After a significant drop, the yellow metal could try to rebound and recover. Gold prices slumped after the United States reported higher inflation than expected in January. Yesterday, the United Kingdom Consumer Price Index reported only a 4.0% growth versus the 4.1% growth estimated, while the Core CPI registered a 5.1% growth, less compared to the 5.2% growth forecasted. The Australian data reported poor figures today, while the UK announced mixed economic figures. Later, the US data should be decisive. Retail Sales are expected to report a 0.2% drop, Core Retail Sales may announce a 0.2% growth, the Empire State Manufacturing Index could be reported at -13.7 points, while Unemployment Claims could jump from 218K to 219K. Furthermore, the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, Industrial Production, Capacity Utilization Rate, and Business Inventories data will also be released. Poor economic figures should weaken the USD and may force the XAU/USD to register a larger rebound. From the technical point of view, the XAU/USD found support on the descending pitchfork’s median line (ml). This represents a dynamic obstacle: the false breakdowns announced exhausted sellers. The first upside obstacle is represented by the weekly S2 of 1998. -If you are interested in knowing about scalping forex brokers, then read our guidelines to get started- Taking out this resistance and making a new higher high activates further growth towards the S1 (2011). If the DXY develops a larger drop, the price of gold could approach the upper median line (uml). Still, it’s premature to talk about such a larger rebound. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/02/15/gold-price-aims-to-regain-2000-eyes-on-us-retail-sales/

2024-02-15 10:08

Officials in Japan got concerned when the USD/JPY crossed above the $150 level. Data from Japan on Thursday revealed a recession in the last part of 2024. Economists expect BoJ rate hikes to start in April. On Thursday, the USD/JPY outlook took a bearish turn after Japanese officials sounded the alarm over the yen’s recent downturn. Officials in Japan got concerned on Wednesday when the pair crossed above the $150 level after the US inflation report. Meanwhile, data from Japan on Thursday revealed a recession in the last part of 2024. As a result, some experts believe the BoJ might hesitate to hike rates. –Are you interested to learn more about forex options trading? Check our detailed guide- The recent surge in USD/JPY beyond the $150 level came after the US released a high inflation report. Consequently, the dollar surged as investors pushed back rate hike bets to June. Japan’s top officials got worried when the yen broke above $150. Notably, Finance Minister Suzuki warned that he was closely monitoring currency moves. However, he did not comment on whether they would intervene to stem the yen’s decline. Meanwhile, currency diplomat Masato Kanda said that the country would do what was necessary if needed. On Thursday, Germany officially became the world’s third-largest economy, taking over from Japan. Notably, data revealed that Japan’s economy experienced a second quarter of contraction in economic growth. As a result, the BoJ might take longer before shifting from negative interest rates. However, some experts believe the stage is set for a policy shift as corporate spending is robust and the labor market is tight. Moreover, a Reuters poll found that economists expect rate hikes to start in April. USD/JPY key events today US retail sales report The US Empire State Manufacturing Index US initial jobless claims USD/JPY technical outlook: Price revisits bullish channel support. On the charts, the price has pulled back to its channel support after making new highs. USD/JPY is trading in a bullish channel, above the 30-SMA, showing a strong bullish bias. Moreover, the RSI recently got to the oversold region and is still in bullish territory. -If you are interested in knowing about scalping forex brokers, then read our guidelines to get started- The price broke above the 150.00 key resistance level and has now pulled back to retest this level and the channel support. Additionally, there is support at the 30-SMA line. If bulls are still strong, the price will bounce off this support zone and likely reach the 151.00 resistance level. However, a break below the zone would indicate a bearish sentiment shift. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/02/15/usd-jpy-outlook-yen-soars-amid-japanese-officials-concerns/

2024-02-15 08:50

The dollar pulled back from recent highs as investors took profits. The Aussie gained despite a significant drop in Australia’s employment. Australia’s unemployment rate soared to a two-year high. Thursday’s AUD/USD forecast was bullish, with the dollar pulling back from recent highs as investors took profits. Consequently, the Aussie gained despite a significant drop in Australia’s employment. Investors are taking profits on the dollar’s rally after the US inflation report. As a result, major currencies across the board got some relief. However, this might only be a short pause before the uptrend continues. –Are you interested to learn more about forex options trading? Check our detailed guide- The upbeat US inflation report led to a change in the outlook for the Fed’s policy. Notably, there was a big drop in rate cut expectations as traders eliminated the chance that the Fed would cut in March. Moreover, the chances of a May cut fell as markets looked to June for the first cut. Currently, there is an 80% likelihood of a June rate cut. Additionally, markets expect three 25-bps cuts in 2024, compared to five similar cuts expected two weeks ago. Meanwhile, the outlook for monetary policy in Australia took a different turn on Thursday after the release of poor employment figures. Employment missed forecasts in January, showing a slowdown in the labor market. At the same time, the unemployment rate soared to a two-year high. For the RBA, this report is a good sign that demand in the labor market is slowing down. Consequently, it raises the chance that the central bank will cut rates. Notably, policymakers said rate hikes were still possible. However, markets believe the RBA’s next move will be a rate cut, especially since the economy is slowing down. AUD/USD key events today US core retail sales m/m US Empire State Manufacturing Index US retail sales m/m US unemployment claims AUD/USD technical forecast: 30-SMA and trendline confluence On the technical side, AUD/USD has pulled back to retest the 30-SMA resistance and the recently broken trendline. At the same time, the RSI has risen to the pivotal 50 level that separates bearish from bullish momentum. -If you are interested in knowing about scalping forex brokers, then read our guidelines to get started- Notably, the price has been on a downtrend and recently made a new low near the 0.6450 key level. Therefore, if bears are still strong, it might reverse at the current resistance zone or slightly higher to retest the 0.6450 support level. A break below this level would confirm a continuation of the downtrend. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/02/15/aud-usd-forecast-profit-taking-in-dollar-after-inflation-led-rally/

2024-02-14 11:20

The flag pattern announced more declines. Taking out the immediate support levels activates more declines. Tomorrow, the US retail sales should have a significant impact. The EUR/USD price slumped again, trading around the 1.0700 psychological level at the time of writing. The greenback dominates the currency market after the US inflation figures beat expectations. –Are you interested to learn more about forex options trading? Check our detailed guide- The Consumer Price Index m/m reported a 0.3% growth in January, beating the 0.2% growth in December. CPI y/y came in at 3.1% above the 2.9% forecasted, while the Core CPI surged by 0.4%, exceeding the 0.3% growth estimated. The currency pair dropped like a rock after inflation, ignoring the Eurozone data. The German ZEW Economic Sentiment and Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment came in better than expected. Today, the Eurozone Industrial Production rose by 2.6%, even if the traders expected a 0.2% drop, while Flash GDP and Flash Employment Change matched expectations. Tomorrow, the US Retail Sales, Core Retail Sales, Empire State Manufacturing Index, Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, Capacity Utilization Rate, and Industrial Production should move the rate. From the technical point of view, the EUR/USD price failed to stay above the 1.0800 psychological level in the last attempt. Now, it has extended its downward movement. -If you are interested in knowing about scalping forex brokers, then read our guidelines to get started- The flag pattern was seen as a bearish continuation formation. Staying on the minor uptrend line announced an imminent breakdown and continuation. It has taken out the 1.0723 historical level and is about to reach the weekly S1 (1.0694) and the major descending pitchfork’s median line (ML). These represent potential downside targets and obstacles, so it remains to see how it reacts around these support levels. Taking out these levels activates more declines. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/02/14/eur-usd-price-under-selling-pressure-after-upbeat-us-cpi/