2025-06-09 12:09
The USD/JPY outlook indicates that the yen is starting the week strong. A former top currency diplomat in Japan noted that the yen could strengthen to the 135-140 range. The US released data showing 139,000 new jobs in May. The USD/JPY outlook indicates that the yen is starting the week strong as market focus shifts back to policy outlooks. On Friday, Japan’s currency collapsed against a strong dollar after the US released a better-than-expected employment report. –Are you interested to learn more about crypto signals? Check our detailed guide- An ex-top currency diplomat in Japan noted on Friday that the yen could strengthen to the 135-140 range against the dollar, mainly due to policy divergence. The Federal Reserve’s next move will likely be a rate cut. Despite a resilient economy, several sectors have experienced a slowdown. At the same time, inflation is easing, giving policymakers confidence to lower borrowing costs. On the other hand, the Bank of Japan has stated that it will continue to hike rates as long as the economy re-accelerates after the global tariff slowdown. Rate cuts in the US and rate hikes in Japan will result in a narrowing interest rate gap. This, in turn, will boost the yen. On Friday, the US released data showing 139,000 new jobs in May. This was bigger than the forecast of 130,000. As a result, rate cut expectations eased. Meanwhile, the dollar rallied. Market participants are now looking forward to crucial inflation figures from the US for more clues on rate cuts. USD/JPY key events today Market participants are not expecting any high-impact reports from the US or Japan. USD/JPY technical outlook: Bears return after trendline retest On the technical side, the USD/JPY price is pulling back after meeting its resistance trendline and the 145.00 key level. However, the bias is bullish because the price trades above the 30-SMA, with the RSI above 50. The bias will only change if bears breach the SMA line. –Are you interested to learn more about forex robots? Check our detailed guide- USD/JPY has gradually descended, making lower highs. However, bears have been unable to break below the 142.55 support level. As a result, the price has been forming a descending triangle. There is a high chance it will breach the 30-SMA to retest the 142.55 support. If bears have gained enough momentum, the price will break below this level, starting to make lower lows. However, if they are still weak, it will bounce again, remaining in the descending triangle. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/06/09/usd-jpy-outlook-yen-gains-as-traders-refocus-on-policy/
2025-06-09 09:35
The USD/CAD forecast shows market participants weighing employment figures from Canada and the US. The economy added 139,000 new jobs in May. Canada reported an unexpected increase in employment of 8,800. The USD/CAD forecast shows market participants weighing employment figures from Canada and the US. At the same time, traders are gearing up for crucial US inflation figures this week that will shape the outlook for Fed rate cuts. –Are you interested to learn more about crypto signals? Check our detailed guide- Last week, the US and Canada released upbeat monthly employment figures. In the US, the economy added 139,000 new jobs in May, above the forecast of 130,000. Meanwhile, average hourly earnings jumped, and the unemployment rate held steady at 4.2%. The report led to a decline in Fed rate cut expectations. Experts were expecting weakness in the US economy due to Trump’s aggressive tariffs. However, the economy has been more resilient than expected so far. As a result, the Fed might now focus more on the state of inflation. On the other hand, Canada reported an unexpected increase in employment of 8,800. Estimates had shown the economy losing 11,900 jobs. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate increased to 7.0% as expected. Last week, the Bank of Canada paused rates a second time. If the economy remains strong, policymakers might remain cautious. USD/CAD key events today Market participants do not expect any key economic releases from the US or Canada. Therefore, the pair might consolidate. USD/CAD technical forecast: Bullish RSI divergence On the technical side, the USD/CAD price has rebounded to retest a solid resistance zone comprising the 30-SMA and the 1.3701 key level. However, the price still trades below the SMA with the RSI under 50, suggesting a bearish bias. –Are you interested to learn more about forex robots? Check our detailed guide- Initially, the price was dropping in a downtrend until it reached the 1.3650 key level. Although this was a new low for the price, the RSI made a higher one, indicating a bullish divergence. Bears were much stronger when they hit the previous low at the 1.3701 level. The bullish divergence might allow bulls to take charge for a deep pullback or a reversal. This would mean breaking above the current resistance zone. Such a move would clear the path to the 1.3850 resistance. On the other hand, the downtrend will continue if the resistance holds. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/06/09/usd-cad-forecast-traders-digest-canada-us-jobs-data/
2025-06-08 05:36
The EUR/USD weekly forecast indicates a looming end to the ECB’s rate cuts. The US economy added 139,000 new jobs compared to the forecast of 130,000. Next week, traders will focus on US inflation data. The EUR/USD weekly forecast is bullish as the situation indicates a looming end to the ECB’s monetary easing cycle. Ups and downs of EUR/USD The EUR/USD pair hit new highs during the week but closed well below the levels. The rally came after the European Central Bank meeting, where policymakers cut rates and signaled an end to the easing cycle. –Are you interested to learn more about crypto signals? Check our detailed guide- ECB’s Christine Lagarde said the central bank was now in a good place to handle any adverse effects of Trump’s tariffs. As a result, the euro surged. However, it pulled back on Friday after data revealed that the US labor market remains resilient despite tariffs. The economy added 139,000 new jobs compared to the forecast of 130,000. As a result, Fed rate cut expectations eased. Next week’s key events for EUR/USD Next week, traders will focus on reports from the US, which will provide an update on the state of consumer and wholesale inflation. Previous readings have shown that inflation is easing. However, policymakers have maintained caution, waiting to see whether Trump’s tariffs have increased price pressures. If this is the case, rate cut expectations will decline, boosting the dollar. On the other hand, if inflation continues its decline, policymakers will gain confidence to predict the timing of the next rate cut. EUR/USD weekly technical forecast: Bulls weak around 1.1500 resistance On the technical side, the EUR/USD price has rebounded to trade above the 22-SMA. At the same time, the RSI has broken above 50, into bullish territory. However, bulls still face solid resistance at the 1.1500 key psychological level. –Are you interested to learn more about forex robots? Check our detailed guide- Initially, the price was trading in a strong uptrend, keeping above the 30-SMA. However, this changed once bulls reached the 1.1500 key level. Here, bears gained enough momentum to break below the 22-SMA. However, they failed to sustain a move below the SMA, pausing at the 1.1104 support. At this point, bulls took back control, aiming to retest the 1.1500 key level. However, the RSI indicates weaker bullish momentum, suggesting that the bulls may not have sufficient strength to break above 1.1500. If this is the case, it might drop back below the SMA next week, aiming for lower lows. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/06/08/eur-usd-weekly-forecast-ecb-signals-end-to-monetary-easing/
2025-06-08 05:33
The GBP/USD weekly forecast indicates trade optimism in the UK. A better-than-expected nonfarm payrolls report allowed the dollar to recover on Friday. Next week, the US will release crucial inflation figures. The GBP/USD weekly forecast indicates trade optimism in the UK after exemptions from Trump’s steel and aluminum tariffs. Ups and downs of GBP/USD The GBP/USD pair had a bullish week as the pound gained on trade optimism and a weak dollar. However, the dollar recovered on Friday after upbeat employment figures. –Are you interested to learn more about crypto signals? Check our detailed guide- The UK has already signed a trade deal with the US. Therefore, when Trump doubled tariffs on steel and aluminum, Britain was exempted. At the same time, the dollar fell at the start of the week due to downbeat data on business activity and private employment. This allowed the pound to gain. However, a better-than-expected nonfarm payrolls report allowed the dollar to recover on Friday. Next week’s key events for GBP/USD Next week, market participants will focus on key economic reports from the UK, including employment, manufacturing production, and GDP. Meanwhile, the US will release consumer and wholesale inflation figures. UK employment and GDP numbers will show the state of the economy, shaping the outlook for BoE policy. At the moment, market participants expect the central bank to pause at its next meeting. Still, the outlook for future moves will continue to change with incoming data. Meanwhile, US inflation numbers will show whether Trump’s tariffs have increased price pressures. If not, policymakers will be confident to cut rates in September. GBP/USD weekly technical forecast: Bearish RSI divergence On the technical side, the GBP/USD price has made new peaks near the 1.3603 key level. Moreover, it trades above the 30-SMA, with the RSI above 50, indicating a solid bullish bias. However, while the price has reached a new high in the uptrend, the RSI has made a lower high, indicating a bearish divergence. –Are you interested to learn more about forex robots? Check our detailed guide- This is a sign that bullish momentum is fading. Therefore, bears might get stronger and push the price below the 22-SMA. Such a move would allow GBP/USD to retest the 1.3201 support level. However, bulls will remain in the lead as long as the price stays above the support trendline. On the other hand, if bulls regain momentum, the price will likely retest the 1.3603 resistance level. A break above would strengthen the bullish bias by making a higher high. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/06/08/gbp-usd-weekly-forecast-metal-tariff-exemptions-boost-pound/
2025-06-06 12:25
The GBP/USD price analysis indicates a pause in the pound’s rally. Economists expect 130,000 new US jobs in May. Dollar weakness this week allowed its peers, like the pound, to climb. The GBP/USD price analysis indicates a pause in the pound’s rally ahead of the pivotal US nonfarm payrolls report. Market participants are locking in profits ahead of a volatile report. Meanwhile, the pound has had a strong week due to trade optimism and dollar weakness. –Are you interested to learn more about MT5 brokers? Check our detailed guide- The US will release its monthly employment report, likely showing the impacts of Trump’s tariffs. Economists expect 130,000 new jobs in May. This would be a drop from April, when the country added 177,000 jobs. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate might hold steady at 4.2%. A poor report will increase Fed rate cut expectations, dragging the dollar lower. On the other hand, an upbeat report would be a surprise that would boost the greenback. The pound has had a strong week as traders cheered the exemption of the UK from the aluminum and steel tariffs. The UK signed a trade deal with the US, keeping it safe from Trump’s aggressive tariffs. Furthermore, dollar weakness allowed its peers like the pound to climb. The dollar fell after weak employment and business activity data led to a surge in rate cut expectations. GBP/USD key events today US average hourly earnings m/m US nonfarm employment change US unemployment rate GBP/USD technical price analysis: Bears test the SMA after RSI divergence On the technical side, the GBP/USD price is challenging the 30-SMA support after meeting the 1.3603 key resistance level. At this pivotal level, bulls are almost equally matched with bears. Moreover, the RSI trades near 50, indicating almost equal momentum. –Are you interested to learn more about Australian forex brokers? Check our detailed guide- Previously, the price was trading in a strong uptrend above the 30-SMA. However, this changed when the price neared the 1.3603 resistance level. Bears gained enough momentum to push the price below the 30-SMA. However, they failed to continue below the 1.3425 key support level. As a result, bulls took back control. Although the price made a new high, the RSI made a lower one, a sign that momentum had faded. After that, bears made a solid bearish candle that is currently at the SMA. A break below the SMA will allow GBP/USD to retest the 1.3425 support level. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/06/06/gbp-usd-price-analysis-pound-fades-gains-ahead-of-nfp/
2025-06-06 10:14
The EUR/USD outlook shows a pullback from a six-week high. The ECB cut interest rates by 25-bps as expected. The dollar limped to the end of the week after downbeat data this week. The EUR/USD outlook shows a pullback from a six-week high hit after a hawkish European Central Bank policy meeting. At the same time, market participants were gearing up for the US nonfarm payrolls report for clues on future Fed moves. –Are you interested to learn more about MT5 brokers? Check our detailed guide- The ECB cut interest rates by 25-bps as expected. However, policymakers sounded more hawkish than expected, leading to a sharp rally in the euro. After the rate cut, President Christine Lagarde said the central bank was now in a good place. This meant that they were now able to face the pressures of weaker growth from US tariffs. She also noted that the ECB was nearing the end of its easing cycle. Nevertheless, market participants expect one more rate cut this year. Still, they have pushed back the timing for another move. Already, inflation in the Eurozone has eased to 1.9%, according to data on Tuesday. Therefore, there is less pressure to lower borrowing costs. On the other hand, the dollar limped to the end of the week after downbeat data this week. At the same time, slow progress on trade negotiations weighed. Traders are now watching the NFP report that might reveal more weakness in the labor sector. EUR/USD key events today US average hourly earnings m/m US nonfarm employment change US unemployment rate EUR/USD technical outlook: Bulls fail to sustain sharp rally On the technical side, the EUR/USD price has pulled back after a sharp rally. Despite the pullback, the bias remains bullish as the price trades above the 30-SMA, with the RSI above 50. Bulls got a sudden surge in momentum that neared the 1.1500 key psychological level. However, they could not sustain the move, allowing bears to trigger a retreat. –Are you interested to learn more about Australian forex brokers? Check our detailed guide- The price is currently nearing a solid support zone comprising the 30-SMA and the 1.1401 key level. Given the bullish bias, the price might bounce higher to retest the 1.1500 level. A break above this level will strengthen the bullish bias by making a new high in the uptrend. However, after the large wicked move, bears might push the price below the nearest support zone. Still, they would have to break below the support trendline as well to confirm a likely reversal. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/06/06/eur-usd-outlook-pulls-back-from-6-week-top-eyes-on-nfp/
