2024-01-15 11:52

The price validated its breakout through the downtrend line. It seems overbought after failing to reach Friday’s high. The Canadian inflation figures should move the rate tomorrow. The gold price is trading at $2,053 at the time of writing. The precious metal is struggling to stay higher. The buyers lack conviction despite a strong rally. –Are you interested to learn more about forex options trading? Check our detailed guide- The US dollar seems determined to extend its growth which could negatively impact the gold prices. The appreciation of the US dollar versus its rivals after the US reported higher inflation in December may force the yellow metal to drop. Fundamentally, the XAU/USD tried to resume its growth as the US PPI reported a 0.1% drop versus a 0.1% growth expected on Friday, while the Core PPI rose by 0.0%, less compared to the 0.2% growth estimated. Today, the US Manufacturing Sales, Wholesale Sales, and the BOC Business Outlook Survey could move the markets. The fundamentals should be decisive tomorrow as Canada is to release the inflation figures. The Consumer Price Index may announce a 0.3% drop versus the 0.1% growth in the previous reporting period. The Core, Median, Trimmed, and Common CPI data will also be published. Furthermore, the US Empire State Manufacturing Index also represents a high-impact event. From a technical point of view, the gold price found strong support on the $2,015 static support, and now it has turned to the upside. It has passed above the downtrend line (channel’s resistance), signaling a potential broader upward movement. –Are you interested to learn about forex robots? Check our detailed guide- The metal has confirmed the breakout, but it seems a little overbought after failing to reach Friday’s high of $2,062 again. The broken downtrend line and the weekly pivot point of $2,041 represent key support levels. As long as it stays above these levels, the price could jump higher again despite minor retreats. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/01/15/gold-price-struggling-to-retain-gains-above-2050/

2024-01-15 09:40

The unexpected decline in US producer prices led to a decline in Treasury yields. There is a 78% chance of the US central bank starting rate cuts in March. The currency experienced a 0.2% increase last week, marking its second consecutive weekly gain. Monday’s USD/CAD outlook displayed a hint of optimism, yet the pair remained largely flat amid subdued trading activity in the US owing to a public holiday. Concurrently, investors continued assessing Friday’s data, revealing an unexpected easing in US producer prices. –Are you interested to learn more about forex options trading? Check our detailed guide- The likelihood of Fed cuts this year, potentially starting in March, increased after Friday’s data. The unexpected decline in US producer prices led to a decline in Treasury yields. Last month, the producer price index for final demand decreased by 0.1%. Market pricing now indicates a 78% chance of the US central bank starting rate cuts in March, up from 68% a week ago, based on the CME FedWatch tool. Meanwhile, on Friday, the Canadian dollar showed little movement against the US dollar as oil retraced much of its earlier gains. Oil fell from its earlier two-week high following US and British strikes on Houthi targets in Yemen. Still, it closed up 0.9%. Additionally, the currency experienced a 0.2% increase last week, marking its second consecutive weekly gain. It reached a four-week high on Thursday at 1.3442, influenced by higher-than-expected US inflation data that momentarily reduced expectations for the Fed to consider interest rate cuts in March. Elsewhere, according to economists, Canada’s December inflation report on Tuesday will likely show an increase from 3.1% to 3.3%. USD/CAD key events today Neither the US nor Canada will release high-impact reports today, which might lead to consolidation for the pair. USD/CAD technical outlook: Price achieves new highs while anchored at 1.3350 On the technical side, the USD/CAD price is making new highs but maintaining the same low at 1.3350. This is a sign that, although bulls are in control, bears are challenging the uptrend. As a result, the price is now chopping through the 30-SMA. –Are you interested to learn about forex robots? Check our detailed guide- Moreover, the RSI has made lower highs amid the uptrend, indicating weakening bullish momentum. Recently, bulls pushed off the 1.3350 support level with an engulfing candle. If bulls regain momentum, the price will likely climb to the 1.3501 resistance level. Otherwise, bears might finally breach the 1.3350 support. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/01/15/usd-cad-outlook-pair-holds-steady-on-a-public-holiday/

2024-01-15 08:12

The data revealed an unexpected decline in US producer prices. Current market pricing indicates a 78% probability that the US central bank will initiate rate cuts in March. Philip Lane said the ECB could start cutting rates in June. Monday’s EUR/USD forecast leaned towards optimism, driven by a weakened dollar, as investors raised their expectations for early rate cuts by the Fed. With a potential kick-off in March, the prospects of Fed cuts gained momentum following Friday’s data showing an unexpected drop in US producer prices. –Are you interested to learn more about forex options trading? Check our detailed guide- Chris Weston, Pepperstone’s head of research, commented, “Following the US CPI and PPI releases, the market is increasingly certain about the Fed cuts starting in March. Moreover, markets expect a 25 bps cut at every meeting from that point.” Meanwhile, current market pricing indicates a 78% probability that the US central bank will initiate rate cuts in March. This is up from 68% a week ago. In contrast, the ECB plans to assess crucial data for potential interest rate cuts by June. Still, ECB chief economist Philip Lane cautioned against moving too quickly, as it could be counterproductive. Lane believes there will be a “series of rate cuts.” However, he noted that important wage data would only be fully accessible by the ECB’s meeting on June 6. Meanwhile, investors speculate that the ECB might reduce borrowing costs this year, starting in March. Money markets currently anticipate at least 150 basis points in cuts, bringing the ECB’s deposit interest rate for banks to 2.5%. EUR/USD key events today There won’t be any significant reports in the Eurozone. Meanwhile, the US is observing Martin Luther King Jr. Day, which might lead to thin trading. EUR/USD technical forecast: Corrective move continues between 1.0900 and 1.1000 On the charts, the EUR/USD price is in a corrective move after pausing its decline at the 1.0900 support level. However, this corrective move has failed to go beyond a strong resistance zone comprising the 1.1000 key level and the 0.5 fib retracement level. –Are you interested to learn about forex robots? Check our detailed guide- Moreover, the price is mostly chopping through the 30-SMA, indicating no clear direction. This can also be seen in the RSI, which has failed to respect the pivotal 50 level. After a corrective move, the price will likely make an impulsive leg. Furthermore, given the previous impulsive leg was bearish, EUR/USD might soon break below the 1.0900 support to retest 1.0800. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/01/15/eur-usd-forecast-investors-ramp-up-bets-on-feds-cut/

2024-01-13 18:55

US consumer inflation data came in higher than expected. There was a slight improvement in the GDP numbers in the UK. Capital Economics projected a potential drop in British inflation to 1.7% in April. The GBP/USD weekly forecast shows a hint of bearish sentiment as the persistence of US consumer inflation suggests the potential for an extended era of high interest rates in the US. –Are you interested to learn more about forex options trading? Check our detailed guide- Ups and downs of GBP/USD The pound had a choppy week as investors absorbed US and UK data. On Thursday, US consumer inflation data came in higher than expected, leading to a slight adjustment in Fed rate cut bets. However, this changed soon after when the producer price index revealed easing inflation. Meanwhile, in the UK, there was a slight improvement in the GDP numbers. However, the outlook for the economy remains poor. Next week’s key events for GBP/USD Investors expect key releases from the UK, including employment, inflation, and retail sales. Meanwhile, the US will release data on retail sales. Investors will focus on the UK inflation report, which might show a drop to 3.8%. On Friday, Capital Economics predicted that Britain might experience a slowdown in its price growth to under 2% before the US and the Eurozone. Moreover, the consultancy projected a potential drop in British inflation to 1.7% in April while anticipating 2.0% in the eurozone and 2.6% in the US during the same period. Consequently, investors speculate on the possibility of a BoE rate cut as early as May. GBP/USD weekly technical forecast: Bullish rally stalls at 1.2800 The charts show that GBP/USD has risen to the 1.2800 resistance level, where the bullish trend has slowed. This trend started strong when buyers took control near the 1.2202 key level. However, it weakened as the price approached the 1.2800 key resistance level. The price is trading closer to the SMA. Additionally, bears have started making attempts to break below the 22-SMA. However, the main indicator of bullish weakness is the RSI, which has made a bearish divergence. As bullish momentum weakens, bears get a chance to take control. –Are you interested to learn about forex robots? Check our detailed guide- Therefore, if this continues next week, bears will likely break below the 22-SMA to retest the 1.2503 support level. A break below this level would confirm a new bearish trend, as the price would start making lower lows and highs. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/01/13/gbp-usd-weekly-forecast-fed-hawks-to-retain-selling-pressure/

2024-01-13 18:53

Inflation in Australia fell sharply in November. Consumer inflation in the US came in higher than expected. Data showed a drop in US producer inflation. Anticipate a downward trajectory in the AUD/USD weekly forecast as Australia’s inflation data solidifies the RBA’s newly adopted dovish stance. Meanwhile, across the Pacific, the US reported higher-than-expected consumer inflation, setting the stage for more downside in the pair. –Are you interested to learn more about forex options trading? Check our detailed guide- Ups and downs of AUD/USD The pair had a bearish week shaped by inflation figures from the US and Australia. Inflation in Australia fell sharply in November, strengthening the view that the RBA is done with rate hikes. Consequently, investors are still expecting 50 bps of easing in 2024. Meanwhile, the US had a mix in the inflation data. Consumer inflation came in higher than expected. As a result, investors scaled back bets on Fed rate cuts. Meanwhile, on Friday, data showed a drop in US producer inflation. However, after all this, investors are still expecting rate cuts in the US to start in March. Next week’s key events for AUD/USD Next week, traders will monitor the US retail sales and employment reports from Australia. Australia’s labor market remains tight. Notably, job vacancies in Australia saw a minor decline in the three months leading to the end of November. This indicates that worker demand remains robust despite a slight overall easing in the labor market. Still, the slight easing in the market has contributed to slower wage growth. Consequently, there is less pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia to consider another interest rate hike. Therefore, if the labor market continues easing, it will strengthen the RBA’s bearish stance. AUD/USD weekly technical forecast: Bears take the lead, breaking 22-SMA barrier On the technical side, AUD/USD has broken below the 22-SMA, a sign that bears are challenging the bullish trend. At the same time, the RSI has dipped into bearish territory below 50, signaling a shift in sentiment. –Are you interested to learn about forex robots? Check our detailed guide- The previous bullish trend was strong, with the price making higher highs and lows above the 22-SMA support. However, bulls could not sustain a move above the 0.6800 key resistance level. At this point, bears took over, sending the price below the 22-SMA. Consequently, AUD/USD might drop further next week to reach the 0.6550 support level. This level is also near the 0.5 Fib retracement level, making a strong support zone. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/01/13/aud-usd-weekly-forecast-aus-inflation-signals-dovish-rba/

2024-01-12 11:18

The bias remains bullish as long as it stays above the 50% Fibonacci line. The PPI and Core PPI should move the rate today. After the last rally, a retreat was natural. The USD/JPY price is trading at 145.21 at the time of writing, far below yesterday’s high of 146.41. The bias remains bullish. Surprisingly or not, the greenback depreciated versus its rivals even though the US reported higher inflation in December. The Consumer Price Index announced a 0.3% growth, beating the 0.2% growth expected and the 0.1% growth in the previous reporting period. In comparison, CPI y/y rose by 3.4%, exceeding the 3.2% growth forecasted and the 3.1% growth in November. In addition, the Core CPI aligned with expectations, while Unemployment Claims dropped to 202K from 203K, even if the specialists expected a potential growth to 209K. Today, the Japanese Economy Watchers Sentiment and the Bank Lending came in better than expected, while the Current Account disappointed. Later, the US data should move the markets. The PPI could announce a 0.1% growth versus the 0.0% growth in the previous reporting period, while Core PPI is expected to register a 0.2% growth. As you can see on the hourly chart, the price failed to stay above the median line (ml) of the ascending pitchfork, signaling exhausted buyers. Still, the correction could be only temporary. The price may only test the immediate support levels or demand zones before developing a new bullish momentum. The 144.50 and the downside 50% Fibonacci line represent key downside obstacles. The bias remains bullish if it stays above the 50% line. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/01/12/usd-jpy-price-accumulating-buying-at-145-0-eyes-on-us-ppi/