2025-06-05 12:41
The EUR/USD outlook shows caution ahead of a likely European Central Bank rate cut. The US private sector added 37,000 jobs in May, well below the forecast. Business activity in the US services sector contracted. The EUR/USD outlook shows caution ahead of a likely European Central Bank rate cut. Despite a decline in the dollar, the euro pulled back on Thursday as traders awaited the ECB meeting. However, downbeat US data in the previous session weakened the dollar, boosting the euro. –Are you interested to learn more about MT5 brokers? Check our detailed guide- The European Central Bank is set to hold its policy meeting on Thursday. Market participants expect the central bank to cut interest rates by 25-bps. Policymakers have maintained a dovish tone due to the recent decline in inflation. At the same time, US tariffs have led to a downgrade in the outlook for global growth. Moreover, traders will wait to see whether policymakers signal more rate cuts to come. Such a message would drag the euro lower. On the other hand, the dollar remained frail after a set of downbeat US economic figures in the previous session. The US private sector added 37,000 jobs in May, well below the forecast of 111,000. Meanwhile, business activity in the services sector contracted. The PMI came in at 49.9, missing the forecast of 52.0. These reports pointed to economic weakness due to Trump’s tariffs. EUR/USD key events today ECB Main Refinancing Rate ECB Monetary Policy Statement US Unemployment Claims ECB Press Conference EUR/USD technical outlook: Rally pauses near the 1.1401 key level On the technical side, the EUR/USD price has pulled back to retest the 1.1401 key level. At the same time, the price has pulled back to the 30-SMA. Still, it trades above the SMA with the RSI over 50, suggesting a bullish bias. –Are you interested to learn more about Australian forex brokers? Check our detailed guide- However, EUR/USD has remained attached to the 1.1401 level for some time, chopping through it. This is a sign that bulls are not ready to make big swings above the level. However, with the SMA near, bullish momentum might surge enough to allow the price to make a new high. With the right catalyst, the price could retest the 1.1500 key psychological level. However, this pause might also be a sign that bulls have reached the limit. Therefore, bears might strengthen enough to push the price below the SMA, indicating a shift in sentiment. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/06/05/eur-usd-outlook-euro-pauses-rally-as-ecb-rate-cut-looms/
2025-06-05 10:00
The USD/CAD forecast shows a cautious Bank of Canada that has boosted the Canadian dollar. Market participants are pricing a 45% chance of a BoC rate cut in July. Data revealed weaker-than-expected US private employment. The USD/CAD forecast shows a cautious Bank of Canada that has boosted the Canadian dollar. At the same time, downbeat data from the US weighed on the dollar, allowing most of its peers to climb. –Are you interested to learn more about MT5 brokers? Check our detailed guide- The Bank of Canada kept rates unchanged as expected on Wednesday. It was the second pause as policymakers wait to see the full impact of Trump’s trade policies. The pause allowed the loonie to climb against the dollar. At the same time, rate cut expectations eased slightly after the meeting. Currently, market participants are pricing a 45% chance of a rate cut at the July meeting. Meanwhile, the US dollar collapsed against its peers after data revealed weaker-than-expected US private employment. The private sector added only 37,000 new jobs in May, compared with forecasts of 111,000 jobs. The miss indicated an unexpected weakness in the labor market. It raised concerns of more downbeat employment figures that could pressure the Fed to cut interest rates. A separate report revealed that business activity in the US services sector contracted. The ISM PMI came in at 49.9 compared to estimates of 52.0. This followed another report showing further contraction in the manufacturing sector. All these point to weakness in the economy as a result of Trump’s tariffs. USD/CAD key events today US unemployment claims USD/CAD technical forecast: RSI divergence suggests weakness On the technical side, the USD/CAD price has broken below the 1.3701 key support level with a solid bearish candle. The move has allowed bears to retest the 1.3650 key level. Moreover, the price now sits far below the 30-SMA, with the RSI near the oversold region, supporting a bearish bias. –Are you interested to learn more about Australian forex brokers? Check our detailed guide- However, although the price has made a lower low, the RSI has made a slightly higher one, a sign that bearish momentum is weaker. This weakness might allow bulls to return for a deep pullback. In such a case, the price might bounce to break above the 30-SMA. However, if bears remain in the lead, USD/CAD will stay below the SMA. Moreover, a break below the 1.3650 level would strengthen the bearish bias. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/06/05/usd-cad-forecast-loonie-jumps-after-boc-pause/
2025-06-04 10:23
The USD/CAD forecast points south as the loonie strengthens ahead of a likely BoC pause. Market participants are waiting to see developments in trade negotiations. The US is set to release the nonfarm payrolls report on Friday. The USD/CAD forecast points south as the loonie strengthens ahead of a likely BoC pause. At the same time, the US dollar was fragile as traders watched developments in trade negotiations. Moreover, market participants were cautious ahead of the crucial nonfarm payrolls report. –Are you interested to learn more about MT5 brokers? Check our detailed guide- After stronger than expected economic data from Canada, traders expect the Bank of Canada to pause again on Wednesday. The central bank paused its easing cycle durig the last meeting, allowing the loonie to gain. Initially, it had been one of the most aggressive in lowering borrowing costs. However, this has changed. Traders will also pay attention to the messaging on future moves. A dovish message could hurt the Canadian dollar. On the other hand, a cautious tone could further support Canada’s currency. Meanwhile, the dollar was weak as traders preferred to stay on the sidelines. Market participants are waiting to see developments in trade negotiations between the US and its partners. Trump called on these countries to provide offers for negotiations by Wednesday. At the same time, the US is set to release the nonfarm payrolls report on Friday. This will shape the outlook for Fed rate cuts. USD/CAD key events today US ADP nonfarm employment change BoC rate statement US ISM services PMI BoC press conference USD/CAD technical forecast: Bears cracking 1.3701 support On the technical side, the USD/CAD price is retesting the 1.3701 support level. It trades far below the 30-SMA, with the RSI in bearish territory below 50. Therefore, the bearish bias is strong. –Are you interested to learn more about Australian forex brokers? Check our detailed guide- The price recently resumed its decline after bears took charge near the 1.3850 resistance level. However, their first attempt at the 1.3701 support failed and the price bounced higher. At the moment, the price is making another attempt at this level. A break below will allow bears to reach the 1.3650 support. However, if the level holds firm again, the price will likely bounce higher to retest the 30-SMA. The bearish bias will remain if the price stays below the SMA. On the other hand, a break above the SMA line would allow USD/CAD to climb to the 1.3850 level. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/06/04/usd-cad-forecast-loonie-gains-ahead-of-expected-boc/
2025-06-04 09:07
The AUD/USD price analysis shows the Aussie climbing despite downbeat GDP data. Data on Wednesday revealed that Australia’s economy barely expanded in Q1. Markets anxiously awaited developments on trade talks. The AUD/USD price analysis shows the Aussie climbing despite downbeat GDP data. The strength in the Australian dollar comes as the dollar weakens ahead of tariff negotiation developments. At the same time, market participants are looking forward to the US nonfarm payrolls report for more clues on Fed policy. –Are you interested to learn more about MT5 brokers? Check our detailed guide- The Aussie initially dropped after data on Wednesday revealed that Australia’s economy barely expanded in Q1. The GDP increased by 0.2%, a significant drop from the previous expansion of 0.6%. The data added pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia to lower borrowing costs. Already, the RBA has implemented two rate cuts since February. Additionally, policymakers have kept the door open to more cuts in the coming months. Market participants are now pricing an 80% chance of a rate cut at the July meeting. Meanwhile, the dollar was subdued as markets anxiously awaited developments on trade talks with the US. Trump has asked countries to submit offers on negotiations by Wednesday. At the same time, there is caution in the markets ahead of the crucial nonfarm payrolls report. The data will show the state of the labor market after Trump’s tariffs. Weakness would pressure the Fed to lower borrowing costs. AUD/USD key events today US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change US ISM Services PMI AUD/USD technical price analysis: Bulls target the 0.6500 range resistance On the technical side, the AUD/USD price is caught in a consolidation between the 0.6400 support and the 0.6500 resistance levels. In this range, the price has been chopping through the SMA with no clear direction. At the same time, the RSI has chopped through the 50 level, indicating almost equal momentum between bulls and bears. –Are you interested to learn more about Australian forex brokers? Check our detailed guide- Within the range, the price trades above the 30-SMA, showing bulls are in the lead. At the same time, the RSI is currently slightly above 50, showing stronger bullish momentum. Therefore, AUD/USD might soon retest the range resistance. A break above the range resistance would allow bulls to target the 0.6550 key level. On the other hand, if the level holds firm, the price will likely remain in consolidation. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/06/04/aud-usd-price-analysis-dollar-slips-ahead-of-tariff-talks/
2025-06-03 09:57
The USD/JPY price analysis shows strength in the yen after Ueda’s comments. The BoJ will hike rates if the economy re-accelerates. Data revealed soft business activity in the US manufacturing sector. The USD/JPY price analysis shows strength in the yen after BoJ’s Ueda said the central bank would hike rates if growth re-accelerates. At the same time, the yen strengthened as safe-haven demand rose on renewed trade tensions between the US and its trading partners. –Are you interested to learn more about MT5 brokers? Check our detailed guide- Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said on Tuesday that the central bank would hike rates if the economy re-accelerated. He also noted that wage growth must re-accelerate. At the moment, Trump tariffs have dimmed the outlook for the economy. Therefore, it might not be the best time to hike interest rates. However, if the economy rebounds after a brief pullback, policymakers will be ready to hike. This news boosted the yen. Furthermore, the yen continued its rally as safe-haven demand rebounded on trade tensions. Trump promised to double tariffs on steel and aluminum imports. The move will likely increase trade tensions between the US and its partners, like Canada and the Eurozone. Moreover, it revealed that Trump was going on with his tariff campaign. Therefore, the risk of a global trade war remains. Elsewhere, the dollar eased after data revealed soft business activity in the US manufacturing sector. The ISM PMI came in at 48.5, below estimates of 49.3. The decline showed the effects of Trump’s tariffs on the US economy. Traders will now wait to see employment figures. USD/JPY key events today US JOLTS job openings USD/JPY technical price analysis: Bears challenge the 142.55 support On the technical side, the USD/JPY price is testing a major support at the 142.55 level. It trades below the 30-SMA with the RSI under 50, suggesting a bearish bias. The price recently reversed to the downside when it broke and stayed below the 30-SMA. –Are you interested to learn more about Australian forex brokers? Check our detailed guide- Furthermore, although there was a strong rebound at the 142.55 level, it only made a lower high. This is a sign that bulls could not sustain a move above the 30-SMA. As a result, bears returned to push USD/JPY below the SMA. At the moment, the price is challenging the 142.55 support. A break below this level will make a lower low, confirming a continuation of the downtrend. Moreover, such a move would allow bears to target the 140.01 support level. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/06/03/usd-jpy-price-analysis-boj-commentary-lifts-yen/
2025-06-03 08:30
The EUR/USD outlook shows a bearish shift in sentiment. The euro pulled back from a six-week high as focus shifted to the likely ECB rate cut. The US ISM manufacturing PMI revealed weaker-than-expected business activity. The EUR/USD outlook shows a bearish shift in sentiment as traders focus on the upcoming European Central Bank meeting. However, dollar weakness continued as market participants worried about the state of the US economy after Trump’s tariffs. –Are you interested to learn more about MT5 brokers? Check our detailed guide- The euro pulled back from a six-week high hit in the previous session as focus shifted to the likely ECB rate cut. Market participants are almost fully pricing a rate cut on Thursday. Notably, inflation in the Eurozone has dropped significantly, nearing the central bank’s 2% target. At the same time, forecasts for global growth have dropped since Trump started his tariff campaign. This has put more pressure on major central banks to lower borrowing costs. Furthermore, market participants will focus on the message during the meeting. If policymakers signal more cuts in the future, the euro might drop. However, if they remain ambiguous, the currency might resume its uptrend. The euro has gained in recent days as the dollar eased on trade tensions. Trump is set to implement a 50% tariff on aluminum and steel on Wednesday, which will keep the risk of trade wars alive. As a result, demand for the dollar has dropped. Meanwhile, the ISM manufacturing PMI revealed weaker-than-expected business activity in the US. The index fell to 48.5, well below forecasts of 49.3. It raised concerns about the state of the economy after Trump’s tariffs. EUR/USD key events today BOJ Gov Ueda speaks US JOLTS job openings EUR/USD technical outlook: Rally pauses to retest the 1.1401 On the technical side, the EUR/USD price is pulling back after making a new high in the uptrend. Bulls recently broke above the 1.1401 key resistance level, strengthening the bullish bias. After the break, the price is retreating to retest this level. –Are you interested to learn more about Australian forex brokers? Check our detailed guide- Moreover, the price trades above the 30-SMA with the RSI in bullish territory above 50. Therefore, there is a high chance the uptrend will continue after the brief pause. If the 1.1401 level holds firm as support, the price will bounce higher. The next target is at the 1.1500 key psychological level. However, the price might break below the level. Still, bears will face the 30-SMA support and the bullish trendline. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/06/03/eur-usd-outlook-traders-reposition-ahead-of-ecb-meeting/
