2025-06-02 10:35

The EUR/USD outlook indicates increasing worries about Trump’s tariffs. Trump threatened to increase tariffs on steel and aluminium goods to 50%. Data on Friday revealed softer than expected German inflation, supporting bets for another ECB rate cut. The EUR/USD outlook indicates increasing worries about Trump’s tariffs that are sending traders from US to Eurozone assets. As a result, the euro is climbing despite expectations of an ECB rate cut later this week. –Are you interested to learn more about MT5 brokers? Check our detailed guide- The dollar was frail on Monday as tariff threats last week renewed concerns about trade wars. Trump threatened to increase tariffs on steel and aluminium goods to 50%. Such a move would hurt some of the US’s major trading partners, like the Eurozone and Canada. Moreover, it would likely trigger similar responses, leading to trade wars. The news hurt the dollar as it shook investor confidence in the US economy. However, since last week, the euro has gained on hopes of a trade deal between the US and the Eurozone. The two economies resumed serious talks that might yield some fruits and avoid a trade war. Meanwhile, data on Friday revealed softer than expected German inflation, supporting bets for another ECB rate cut in June. Inflation in the Eurozone has been on a downtrend and could soon hit the central bank’s 2% target. Moreover, the likelihood of slower growth due to Trump’s tariffs could force the ECB to maintain its dovish stance. On the other hand, core inflation in the US increased by 0.1% as expected, likely keeping the Fed on a wait-and-see stance. EUR/USD key events today US ISM manufacturing PMI Fed Chair Powell Speaks EUR/USD technical outlook: Bulls eye the 1.1500 key resistance On the technical side, the EUR/USD price has broken above the 1.1401 key resistance to make a higher high. The move has strengthened the bullish bias. The price now trades well above the 30-SMA, with the RSI nearing the overbought region. –Are you interested to learn more about Australian forex brokers? Check our detailed guide- EUR/USD has maintained a bullish trajectory since it recently reversed. The price has made a series of higher highs and lows, creating a strong support trendline. However, in this time, it has chopped through the 30-SMA, showing the trend has been shallow. The recent bullish breakout allows bulls to set their sights on the next target at the 1.1500 key resistance. A break above will further strengthen the uptrend. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/06/02/eur-usd-outlook-trumps-tariff-threats-weaken-dollar/

2025-06-02 10:31

The USD/CAD forecast suggests solid bearish sentiment. Canada’s GDP expanded by 2.2% in the first quarter, beating estimates of a 1.7% increase. Trump threatened to increase tariffs on aluminium and steel imports to 50%. The USD/CAD forecast suggests solid bearish sentiment as the Canadian dollar extends gains after an upbeat GDP report. At the same time, the dollar remains weak amid Trump tariff tensions. However, cooler-than-expected US inflation figures eased Fed rate cut expectations. –Are you interested to learn more about MT5 brokers? Check our detailed guide- The Canadian dollar strengthened on Friday after data revealed a better-than-expected performance in Canada’s economy. The GDP expanded by 2.2% in the first quarter, beating estimates of a 1.7% increase. The upbeat figures eased economic worries, lowering expectations for a Bank of Canada rate cut this week. At the last meeting, the Bank of Canada paused its aggressive rate-cutting cycle. However, experts had expected the central bank to resume its rate cuts. Nevertheless, the economy has performed better than expected. Consequently, market participants are pricing a 75% chance of the Bank of Canada pausing again this week. On the other hand, the dollar was fragile as market participants worried about Trump’s aggressive tariffs. The US president threatened to increase tariffs on aluminium and steel imports to 50%. Such a move would increase trade tensions with its partners. At the same time, tensions with China over tariffs on critical minerals have dampened appetite for US assets. Elsewhere, data revealed that inflation in the US eased to 2.1% in April from the previous reading of 2.3%. The report eased Fed rate cut expectations. USD/CAD key events today ISM Manufacturing PMI Fed Chair Powell Speaks USD/CAD technical forecast: Overwhelming bearish pressure On the technical side, the USD/CAD price has broken below the pivotal 1.3701 support level, strengthening the bearish bias. The price trades well below the 30-SMA, with the RSI in the oversold region, showing bears have a strong lead. Initially, the price reversed to the downside when it met the 1.4000 key resistance level. –Are you interested to learn more about Australian forex brokers? Check our detailed guide- However, the downtrend paused when the price reached the 1.3701 support level, allowing bulls to return. As a result, the price rebounded and broke above the 30-SMA. However, bulls were not strong enough to sustain a move above the SMA. Consequently, the price broke back below the SMA. Currently, bulls have reached a lower low, confirming a continuation of the downtrend. A clean break below 1.3701 will allow USD/CAD to retest lower support levels. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/06/02/usd-cad-forecast-bocs-pause-boosts-loonie/

2025-05-30 13:13

The EUR/USD outlook turns neutral as ECB signals cautious rate path. US dollar remains under pressure as trade tariffs continue to worry. The pair recovered but technical resistance at 1.1340 keeps mild selling pressure. The EUR/USD outlook remains neutral as the price is caught between ECB’s dovish signals and growing volatility in the US economic policy. The euro has slightly gained, benefiting from potential ECB cut in June meeting. The rate is expected to fall to 2%. However, the ECB member Fabio Panetta stated that further rate cuts will be assessed on need basis, acknowledging weakening of the economy. Panetta also pointed that the Eurozone growth is weak and trade relation with the US could impact the economic growth significantly. The uncertainty aligns with the weaker German retail sales data. Although the annual retail growth beat expectations, the economic worries still persist. The German inflation data met expectations at 0.1%, lending no room to the bulls. Meanwhile, the US dollar remains subdued due to political instability. The reinstatement of Trump tariffs suspended earlier, has renewed the global trade tension. Moreover, ballooning fiscal deficit and Trump’s tax bill also continue to keep a pressure on the Greenback. These factors coupled with a weaker US Q1 GDP and a slight uptick in the weekly unemployment data have further deteriorated the outlook. The US Core PCE, Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, came at 0.1% meeting expectations. The initial reaction of the market remained favorable for the EUR/USD. EUR/USD Technical Outlook: Cautious Bullishness Above 1.13 The EUR/USD 4-hour chart shows a strong rebound from 1.1200 support, forming a bottom. Despite a slight retreat from yesterday’s top, the price remains around 1.1340, holding most of the gains. The immediate resistance emerges at 1.1365 ahead of 1.1400. A sustained break above 1.1400 may open the doors to 1.1450 and 1.1500. One the flip side, 1.1300 remains a strong support ahead of 1.1250. The RSI remains around 50, supporting a cautious bullish tone. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/05/30/eur-usd-outlook-cautious-bullishness-after-neutral-core-pce/

2025-05-30 07:22

Gold price trades below $3,300 amid modest US dollar strength caution ahead of key PCE inflation data. Reinstatement of Trump-era tariffs and ongoing geopolitical tensions support gold’s safe-haven appeal. Technical setup signals potential downside toward $3,245 unless bulls reclaim the $3,325–$3,350 resistance zone. Gold price lost traction on Friday as the dollar recovered, with the spot price down 0.45% to $3,292 during the early European session.The modest pullback is attributed to a slight recovery in dollar. Despite today’s losses, the precious metal remains supported because of geopolitical worries, raising demand for the safe haven asset. The immediate focus remains on the US PCE Price index which is Fed’s preferred gauge of inflation. Market participants anticipate a slight down tick in both headline and core PCE. The annual headline rate could fall to 2.2% from 2.3% while core PCE to edge to 2.5% from 2.6%. The data is vital for the Fed to shape the future policy path as the speculations of two rate cuts this year soar. Fed officials have shown mixed views. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly has signaled two rate cuts by 2025 if inflation and jobs market conditions align. Contrarily, Fed Chair Powell is cautious with more focus on data, especially after tariff uncertainties cloud growth. Adding more to the complex scenario, the federal court appeal restored President Trump’s sweeping tariffs a day after the court had blocked them. The move has brought back trade war fears. Meanwhile, geopolitical concerns from Middle East to Ukraine-Russia peace talks, continue to anchor gold as a hedge against instability. The weak demand of physical gold in India and subdued premiums in China couldn’t trigger a bearish reversal in gold and the trend is still cautiously bullish. Gold Price Technical Analysis: Bears Aiming for $3,245 The technical perspective of gold shows a consolidation after failure to break the $3,325 resistance area on Thursday that led the losses towards $3,290. It shows a short-term bearish undertone. The 4-hour RSI is turning negative, opening the doors for more downside towards $3,280 and a decisive breakout of the level can push prices to $3,245 ahead of $3,200. On the flip side, if the bulls manage to break $3,325, the next target could be $3,350 ahead of $3,370 and then $3,400. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/05/30/gold-price-wavers-as-markets-brace-for-core-pce-tariffs/

2025-05-29 08:16

The EUR/USD forecast turned bearish after falling below 1.1300 level. The US court decision supported the US dollar. All eyes are now on the US Q1 GDP for further impetus. The EUR/USD forecast turned bearish after falling below the key 1.1300 level, marking fresh weekly lows. at 1.1210. The downtick move stemmed from a rise in the US dollar after a US federal trade court paused the imposition of broader tariffs on imports, stating it misuse of authority under IEEPA. The decision has reduced the fears of trade war. The US Dollar Index (DXY) surged above 100.40 due to improved risk sentiment and expected sharp rise in US bond yields. The recent court decision may provide a boost to US growth outlook and weigh on the Euro’s bullish trend. According to ING analyst, Chris Turner, the EUR/USD is reasonably lower on US tariff news as the US growth outlook has slightly improved along with risk premium attached with the dollar. He also stated that the recent downturn move could lead to 1.1050, maintaining a broad range of 1.10 to 1.15. Meanwhile, Trump’s delay on imposing tariffs on EU until July 09, offered some respite to the markets. However, uncertainty still persists. The ECB officials will announce policy decision next week. The consensus remains for another rate cut, some officials have turned hawkish, resisting further easing. The recent Eurozone data added more traction to the sellers with France’s inflation slowing unexpectedly. On the other hand, the ECB policymaker and head of Slovak Central Bank, Peter kazimir was found guilty of corruption. This development has clouded the image of ECB and raised a political noise across the Europe. On the other hand, the recent uptick move in the dollar could be temporary as the President Trump can seek alternatives to restore the tariffs which can eventually weigh on the dollar. Today’s major economic data is US Q1 GDP which can provide further impetus to the market. The US dollar has erased some gains in anticipation of the data. EUR/USD Technical Forecast: Recovery After a Pullback The EUR/USD 4-hour chart shows the price remains well supported by the rising trendline. Today’s bearish move met solid support and recovered around 60 pips so far. However, the price is below 20-period SMA. Meanwhile, the RSI shows a sharp reversal from the oversold zone. Any upside will meet strong resistance around 1.1300 ahead of 1.1340 and then 1.1400. On the flip side, the pair may test today’s lows at 1.1210 ahead of 1.1150 and then 1.1050. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/05/29/eur-usd-forecast-sellers-pounce-1-13-level-ahead-of-us-gdp/

2025-05-29 07:32

The GBP/USD outlook falters as dollar recovers after court ruling. Fed maintained cautious tone amid trade uncertainty and inflation risks. UK food inflation ticks up, decreasing odds of BoE rate cut. The GBP/USD outlook tumbles as the pair hit fresh lows around 1.3414 on Thursday, retreating from multi-month top marked at 1.3592 on Monday. The US dollar soared in response to major legal development. A US federal court blocked President Trump’s decision to impose broad import tariffs, calling it overstepping authority in the context of IEEPA. The greenback cheered the decision immediately as markets viewed it as a de-escalation in trade tension. Hence, the US yields and equities also surged. However, the analysts expect the dollar strength to be transient. Legal experts warn that the US government can find alternatives like section 122 or section 301 to restore tariffs. The looming uncertainty can deteriorate the risk sentiment. On the data front, the focus now turns to the US Q1 GDP numbers ahead of Friday’s PCE Index. Both events are meaningful for the Fed in shaping future policies. The central bank’s meeting minutes from May meeting showed a heightened caution, with officials stressing on keeping rates on hold due to inflation risks and growth worries amid tariff disruptions. Meanwhile, the UK inflation data complicates the scenario for the Bank of England. Food inflation surged for fourth consecutive month, reducing the odds of a rate cut. According to Barclays Bank, the interest rates can fall to 3.5% only Feb 2026, which supports the pound in medium term. GBP/USD Technical Outlook: Pullback within Uptrend The GBP/USD remains technically bearish in the short-term after falling well below the 1.3500 handle. The next levels for the sellers emerge at 1.3400 ahead of 1.3250. Though the price has recovered from the daily lows, finding acceptance above 1.3480 can turn the sentiment. After surging more than 11% from the January lows of 1.2100, this could be a pullback, pausing the uptrend for a while. Rising above the 1.3500 level can open the doors for further gains to 1.3600. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/05/29/gbp-usd-outlook-us-court-blocks-tariffs-eyes-on-us-gdp-pce/