2023-11-07 09:32
The RBA boosted interest rates by 25 basis points, ending its four-month pause. Investors perceived the RBA’s forward guidance as dovish. The Australian dollar plummeted by up to 0.9% after the RBA announcement. The AUD/USD price analysis turned bearish following the RBA’s rate adjustment and shifted the outlook that prompted speculation of an impending end to rate hikes. Notably, the RBA raised interest rates by 25 basis points on Tuesday, ending four months of stable policy. However, the RBA modified its language concerning the future outlook. -Are you looking for forex robots? Check our detailed guide- Carol Kong, a strategist at the Commonwealth Bank of Australia, noted that the RBA’s forward guidance was perceived as dovish. Consequently, the Australian dollar quickly reversed its gains following an initial rally. Rates have risen by 425 basis points since May of the previous year, marking the most aggressive cycle in the RBA’s history. As a result, mortgage payments have risen significantly. Moreover, economic growth has slowed to a two-year low of 2.1%, and the RBA predicts it will approach 1% in 2024 as the full effects of higher rates take hold. The possibility of a rate hike had emerged as consumer price inflation exceeded expectations in the third quarter. Additionally, the central bank’s forecasts for CPI were adjusted to 3.5% by the end of 2024, up from 3.3%. Furthermore, policymakers only expect inflation to reach the top end of the target range by the end of 2025. Following the RBA’s announcement, the Australian dollar plummeted by up to 0.9% to $0.64305 during the session. AUD/USD key events today Traders will keep absorbing the RBA rate decision and policy outlook as there are no other significant events set for the day. AUD/USD technical price analysis: Bears pause at the 30-SMA support. The AUD/USD price has collapsed to the 30-SMA after briefly trading above the 0.6500 key level. Similarly, the RSI has entered bearish territory after trading in the overbought region. It indicates that the collapse was sudden and steep. However, bears are yet to break below the 30-SMA support. This would be a significant step in taking over control from the bulls. -Are you looking for the best CFD broker? Check our detailed guide- Moreover, a break below the SMA would allow bears to retest and likely break below the 0.6400 support level. However, it is also possible that the SMA will halt the decline. In that case, bulls would return to retest the 0.6500 resistance. https://www.forexcrunch.com/aud-usd-price-analysis-rba-hikes-25-bps-with-cautious-tone/
2023-11-07 08:07
Neel Kashkari stated that the Fed probably needs to do more work to manage inflation. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will deliver speeches on Wednesday and Thursday. Japan’s real wages declined for the 18th consecutive month. The USD/JPY outlook brightened with investors embracing a bullish sentiment Tuesday as the dollar extended its rally, building on Monday’s upswing. On Monday, Neel Kashkari, the President of the Fed Bank of Minneapolis, stated that the US central bank probably needs to do more work to manage inflation. Consequently, the dollar rose. -Are you looking for forex robots? Check our detailed guide- Additionally, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will deliver speeches on Wednesday and Thursday. Markets will focus on whether he maintains the more dovish stance adopted after the Fed’s policy meeting last week. CBA’s Kong noted, “If Powell takes a slightly more hawkish approach later this week, the dollar could bounce back.” Meanwhile, the Japanese yen moved above the critical 150 level. This level has kept traders anxious in recent weeks as they watch for signs of intervention from Tokyo. Notably, the yen reached 151.74 per dollar last week, coming closer to the lows observed in October 2022. The decline prompted multiple rounds of dollar-selling interventions. Elsewhere, Japan’s real wages declined for the 18th consecutive month in September, and consumer spending continued its slump. Increasing prices squeezed households’ purchasing power. As such, it increased pressure from labor groups for higher wage increases. Global financial markets closely monitor wage trends in the world’s third-largest economy. Moreover, the Bank of Japan considers sustainable wage increases a prerequisite for phasing out its ultra-loose monetary policy. USD/JPY key events today Investors are not expecting any major economic reports from Japan or the US. Consequently, the pair might not make big moves today. USD/JPY technical outlook: Price reclaims 150.00 threshold. On the charts, USD/JPY has recovered yet again and is trading above the 150.00 key level. There is solid bullish momentum, as seen in the RSI, which has pushed above 50. However, the rebound has paused at the 30-SMA resistance. -Are you looking for the best CFD broker? Check our detailed guide- Notably, bears failed to get the price to the 149.00 support level. As such, the price made a higher low. It shows that bulls might be in control on a larger scale. Moreover, this indicates that bulls might push the price to make a higher high. If this is the case, the price will likely soon break above the 30-SMA and the 150.75 resistance level. https://www.forexcrunch.com/usd-jpy-outlook-dollar-gains-amid-feds-hawkish-comments/
2023-11-06 13:14
The bias is bullish as the Dollar Index is bearish. Taking out the resistance levels confirms more gains. The 1.0800 psychological level is seen as a potential target. The EUR/USD price resumed its swing higher. The pair is trading at 1.0749, below today’s high of 1.0756, at press time. Fundamentally, the greenback took a hit from the US economic data on Friday. -Are you looking for forex robots? Check our detailed guide- The NFP came in at 150K in October versus 178K and compared to 297K in September, Average Hourly Earnings rose by 0.2% less compared to the 0.3% growth estimated, Unemployment Rate jumped unexpectedly from 3.8% to 3.9%, while ISM Services PMI dropped to 51.8 points below 53.0 points forecasts. In addition, the Canadian Unemployment Rate and Employment Change also came in worse than expected. DXY’s massive drop weakened the USD. Today, the German Factory Orders increased by 0.2%, even if the traders expected a 1.3% drop, while the German Final Services PMI jumped from 48.0 to 48.2 points. Furthermore, the Eurozone Final Services PMI remained at 47.8 points, while Sentix Investor Confidence printed at -18.6 points compared to -22.2 points estimates. Tomorrow, the German Industrial Production and the Eurozone PPI could have an impact. EUR/USD Price Technical Analysis: Leg Higher Technically, the EUR/USD price extended its rally after jumping above the ascending pitchfork’s median line (ml). It is near the upper median line (uml), representing an upside target and obstacle. -Are you looking for the best CFD broker? Check our detailed guide- The 38.2% retracement level represents a resistance level as well. It remains to see how it reacts around these levels. False breakouts may announce a new sell-off, while a valid breakout activates further growth towards the 1.0800 psychological level and up to the R1 (1.0810). Still, after such an impressive growth, we cannot exclude a temporary retreat. The price could come back to retest the support levels before jumping higher. https://www.forexcrunch.com/eur-usd-price-aiming-for-1-0765-after-downbeat-us-nfp/
2023-11-06 08:51
The dollar index experienced a significant drop of over 1% last week. Treasury yields slumped in response to soft US jobs and manufacturing data. Futures markets now imply a 90% probability that the Fed has completed its rate hikes. As we stepped into the new week, the USD/JPY outlook took a bearish turn, with the yen standing its ground in expectation of another descent in the US dollar’s value. This anticipation gained momentum following a lackluster US jobs report. -Are you looking for forex robots? Check our detailed guide- The dollar index experienced a significant drop of over 1% last week, its most substantial decrease since mid-July, hitting a six-week low. Several factors, including weak US jobs data, softer global manufacturing numbers, and a drop in longer-term Treasury yields, contributed to the dollar’s decline. Consequently, it prompted a yen rally that saw it recover from levels weaker than 150 per dollar. Meanwhile, Treasury yields slumped in response to soft US jobs and manufacturing data. Additionally, the US government reduced its refinancing estimate for the quarter. Futures markets now imply a 90% probability that the Fed has completed its rate hikes. Moreover, there is an 86% chance that the first policy easing will occur as early as June. The shift in the dollar’s direction and the yen’s rebound from last week’s lows suggested that Japanese authorities likely do not need to intervene in the currency market. Notably, the yen reached 151.74 per dollar last week, approaching the lows in October of the previous year. These lows triggered several rounds of dollar-selling intervention by the Bank of Japan. USD/JPY key events today There are no significant events scheduled for today from the US or Japan. As such, investors will likely keep digesting the US NFP report. USD/JPY technical outlook: Yen retreats below key resistance at 150.00. On the technical side, the yen has dropped back below the 150.00 key resistance level. Initially, the price shot up from the 149.00 support level to break above 150.00. However, bulls could only keep the price above this level briefly as bears resurfaced with as much strength to push the price lower. -Are you looking for the best CFD broker? Check our detailed guide- Moreover, the price broke below the 30-SMA as the RSI fell below 50 to support a bearish bias. Consequently, bears are currently in control and are targeting the 149.00 support level. A break below 149.00 will likely confirm a bearish trend. https://www.forexcrunch.com/usd-jpy-outlook-yen-braces-for-gains-after-lackluster-jobs/
2023-11-06 07:55
The BoE emphasized its commitment to keeping rates stable for the foreseeable future. Data revealed a more significant than expected slowdown in US job growth in October. British services businesses experienced a third consecutive month of reduced momentum in October. The GBP/USD forecast remains strongly bullish as it had the best weekly performance in four months, thanks to a combination of factors that boosted sterling’s appeal. This surge followed the Bank of England’s (BoE) decision to maintain interest rates at a 15-year high. Additionally, it emphasized its commitment to keeping rates stable for the foreseeable future. -Are you looking for forex robots? Check our detailed guide- Moreover, the pound rose against the dollar because data revealed a more significant than expected slowdown in US job growth in October. Strikes by the United Auto Workers (UAW) union against Detroit’s “Big Three” car manufacturers suppressed manufacturing payrolls. Additionally, wage inflation cooled, indicating a relaxation in labor market conditions. Notably, the BoE opted to keep borrowing costs unchanged at 5.25%. Furthermore, the central bank released forecasts indicating that the British economy was likely to teeter on the edge of recession and experience flat growth in the upcoming years. Meanwhile, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) released the latest projections and clarified that monetary policy would remain restrictive for an extended period. Moreover, a survey conducted on Friday indicated that British services businesses had experienced a third consecutive month of reduced momentum in October. It added to evidence that the economy was concluding 2023 with weak performance. High interest rates and living costs continued to weigh on demand. GBP/USD key events today The pair might consolidate as no key economic reports will come from the US or the UK today. GBP/USD technical forecast: Bulls aiming for 1.2400 The pound has experienced a strong surge from the 1.2200 key level. Buyers made a strong move that saw the price break above the 1.2303 resistance level. Moreover, the price swung well above the 30-SMA, and the RSI got overbought. It indicates a strong bullish bias. -Are you looking for the best CFD broker? Check our detailed guide- Currently, the price is heading for the next key level at 1.2401. After such a strong move, the price might pause at 1.2401 for a retracement and to allow the SMA to catch up. Moreover, this pause might lead to a retest of the 1.2303. Still, the bullish bias is strong, and if the price stays above 30-SMA, it will soon break above 1.2401. https://www.forexcrunch.com/gbpusd-forecast-biggest-weekly-gain-in-four-months/
2023-11-04 18:28
The pound surged following the Bank of England’s decision to maintain rates. Investors are becoming increasingly convinced that US rates have peaked. The pound got a boost from downbeat US employment figures. The GBP/USD weekly forecast is riding a wave of bullish sentiment as the greenback falters after discouraging employment figures. A weaker dollar sets the stage for a potential surge in the currency pair. Ups and downs of GBP/USD The pound closed the week higher after monetary policy meetings by the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England. The pound surged following the Bank of England’s decision to maintain rates at a 15-year high. Moreover, the bank explicitly ruled out any imminent rate cuts. -Are you looking for forex robots? Check our detailed guide- Meanwhile, despite the uncertainty surrounding US interest rates, investors are increasingly convinced that the peak has been reached. Consequently, Fed funds futures indicate a less than 20% chance of rate hikes in December. This, in turn, is weighing on the dollar. Moreover, the pound got a boost from downbeat US employment figures. The figures suggest that US rates are beginning to impact the labor market. Next week’s key events for GBP/USD In the coming week, the UK will release data on manufacturing production and gross domestic product. Notably, the UK economy has lagged due to the high interest rates meant to fight inflation. Nevertheless, the UK steered clear of recession in the current year. However, the IMF projects it will experience the slowest economic growth among the Group of Seven nations next year. In August, the economy showed a modest growth of 0.2%, following a surprising contraction of 0.5% in July. GBP/USD weekly technical forecast: Price confined by 1.2100 support and 1.2303 resistance. The pound has been stuck in consolidation between the 1.2100 support and the 1.2303 resistance levels. It came after a steep bearish trend that paused at the 1.2100 support. Moreover, throughout the decline, the price respected the 22-SMA as resistance. At the same time, the RSI found resistance at the pivotal 50 level. -Are you looking for the best CFD broker? Check our detailed guide- However, when the price got to the 1.2100 support, bulls got enough strength to puncture the SMA. They have kept doing this, and finally, the price has pushed beyond the 1.2303 resistance level. In the coming week, the price might pull back to retest the 1.2303 as support. If the level holds, the price will bounce higher and likely retest the 1.2603. https://www.forexcrunch.com/gbp-usd-weekly-forecast-dollar-falters-amid-dismal-nfp-data/
