2025-05-28 10:47

The USD/CAD forecast is slightly bullish as it breaks 1.3800 as the dollar recovers ground after upbeat data. Falling oil prices and rising rate cut odds weaken loonie. Market participants eye FOMC meeting minutes and key US data ahead. The USD/CAD forecast remains slightly positive as the price soars beyond 1.3800 on Wednesday, following a rebound on Tuesday largely driven by the dollar’s strength. The US Consumer Confidence report surprised the markets with a sharp rise to 98.0, snapping a 5-month decline. Job availability, income prospects and overall business conditions helped erase economic fears, overshadowing the 6.3% drop in US Durable Goods Orders due to a fall in demand of aircrafts. The strong data helped the sentiment to shift away from the US debt sustainability concerns and ongoing trade uncertainty. Hence, enhanced risk-on mood benefited the dollar. The markets are now bracing for the FOMC meeting minutes today that could offer insights into Fed’s thinking on future policy. Moreover, the US GDP and Friday’s Core PCE inflation report are also important to watch as well. Meanwhile, the Canadian dollar remains under selling pressure due to softer crude oil prices amid OPEC’s potential rise in oil supply from July. Lower oil prices heavily weigh on the loonie. Moreover, the recent Canada’s economic data has urged the Bank of Canada to ease monetary policy as soon as June. Sluggish economic indicators and dovish BoC tone have added more to the loonie’s bearish tone. Hence, the USD/CAD pair remains tilted to the upside, supported by the diverging economic indicators between US and Canada. The Fed’s minutes could further amplify this divergence if the tone is less dovish. USD/CAD Technical Forecast: Bearish Channel to Cap Gains The daily chart shows a strong bullish reversal signal. However, the downside trend starting from January still remains intact. The 20-day SMA at 1.3878 remains an immediate resistance for the pair. As long as the price stays below it, the risk of testing recent multi-month lows at 1.3695 remains high. However, breaking above the 20-day SMA can further intensify bullish pressure and lead the rally towards 1.4000.The price remains trapped within the bearish trend channel. A sustained move breaking above the channel resistance can confirm the bullish reversal. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/05/28/usd-cad-forecast-loonie-struggles-with-oil-rate-cut-bets/

2025-05-28 09:45

USDJPY outlook turned bullish after Japanese bond market intervention and easing U.S.-EU trade tensions lifted the pair. A bullish reversal pattern formed, hinting at a short-term bottom, but the broader trend remains bearish. Market focus now turns to U.S. data for further dollar strength and to Japanese yields for signs of renewed yen support. The USD/JPY outlook has shown a mild shift in sentiment, stemming from the recent surge in US dollar and yen’s weakness. However, the situation is complex due to a mix of monetary policy divergence and short-term political developments. The US dollar regained strong footing after US consumer confidence data marked the best figures in past four years. The delayed tariffs on EU imports until July 09 has also given some life to the dollar. The decision eased the market fears of escalating trade tensions and triggered a broad risk-one sentiment in global markets. Hence, yen being a safe haven asset suffered against the US dollar. Moreover, the US dollar also found significant support from easing inflation pressure as this could refrain the Fed to act aggressively in cutting rates. The US economic resilience could further support the USD/JPY bulls. On the other hand, the yen found headwinds despite stronger than expected Japanese inflation. The BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda warned about a hike in food prices, hinting at a hawkish stance. However, the BoJ is still far from a meaningful tightening policy. The central bank is navigating exit from the easing monetary policy and start tightening while the Federal Reserve is debating when to cut rates. The policy divergence could favor the yen against dollar. Moreover, the Japanese government announced that it would trim the super-long bonds. The objective was to calm the sharp rise in yields that had previously supported the yen through repatriation. This signals a potential bullish momentum for the USD/JPY. Key Data for USD/JPY Today The major event on the day is FOMC meeting minutes that could unfold the potential monetary policy and rate path. USD/JPY Technical Outlook: Buyers Looking to Break Triangle The USD/JPY formed a strong bullish reversal signal after finding a bottom at 142.35. It followed a breakout of ascending triangle and resistance at 143.00. The rally paused at 20-day SMA around 144.80. If the buyers sustain above the 144.00 level, the price can test 146.00 and potentially aim for 148.32. However, the broad bearish trend initiated from January still remains until the price moves above the 50% Fib level. A drop below 142.00 could invalidate the recent bullish bias and may look for 139.80 ahead of 138.70. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/05/28/usd-jpy-outlook-yen-weakens-after-boj-intervention/

2025-05-27 08:51

EUR/USD outlook is under pressure near 1.1340 amid dovish ECB and softer EU data. US Dollar rebounds on stronger risk sentiment and hawkish Fed commentary, helping cap EUR/USD upside. All eyes on this week’s US and Eurozone data, including durable goods, confidence indices, and ECB/Fed policy guidance. The EUR/USD outlook has turned negative on Tuesday as the fundamental factors favor the US dollar. The pair is trading at 1.1335, at the time of writing, down nearly 0.40%. The diverging central banks outlooks and softer Eurozone data weighs on the euro. The latest comments from the ECB officials have reinforced the need to cut the rates in the June meeting. According to ECB Council Member, Gediminas Simkus, “The risk that inflation will be below the target in future has increases.” He also added that the borrowing costs are high, near neutral range and euro is strong. His willingness to continue easing policy weighed on the shared currency. The fellow member Francois Villeroy also echoed the same dovish tone and acknowledged that the ECB policy normalization is not yet complete. And the softer French inflation may accelerate accommodative stance. The shift is critical as the divergence between ECB and the Fed may heighten. While the ECB is close to another cut, the Fed is still reluctant. Fed President Kashkari reinforced the view supporting restrictive policy and skeptical of inflation surge due to tariffs. Meanwhile, the German data failed to impress buyers. The GfK Consumer Confidence Index for June surged to only -19.9, missing expectations and revealing weaker household sentiment. Coupled with softer French inflation, has weakened the euro. On the other hand, the US dollar benefits from the shift in the market sentiment. The DXY climbed back above 99.50 area, recovering earlier losses. Investors have started to price in a delayed rate cut by the Fed while ECB’s dovishness also gives an edge to the dollar. Key Events for EUR/USD Today US Durable Goods Orders (April) CB Consumer Confidence (May) EUR/USD Technical Outlook: Decisive Trendline Support The 4-hour chart shows the pair is approaching the rising trendline support. The pair is well above the 20-period SMA which may support the price from an abrupt fall. However, sustaining below the 1.1335 may initiate selling towards 1.1260. On the flip side, if the trendline support holds, the price can surge back to 1.1400 handle ahead of 1.1573, a multi-month high formed in April. However, the RSI turns lower but above the 50.0 level. It suggests a potential consolidation before a decisive move. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/05/27/eur-usd-outlook-turns-sour-amid-weaker-inflation-soft-ecb/

2025-05-27 08:01

The gold price pulls back from the recent multi-week top of $3,366 with a limited downside potential. US tariff delays and a weaker dollar continue to benefit the precious metal. Traders await key US data and FOMC meeting minutes ahead. The gold price is now at crossroads due to complex situation stemming from trade uncertainty, future rate cuts, fiscal instability and a weaker US dollar. At the time of writing, the gold price stays around $3,304 after marking lows around $3,295. The precious metal fell from daily highs of $3,341. The fundamental factors mentioned above make gold an attractive asset for the investors seeking safety and speculative opportunities. The major catalysts for the gold rally was Moody’s downgrade of US credit outlook that trembled investors’ confidence in US assets. Moreover, the President Trump’s threat to impose 50% tariffs on EU also weakened the dollar and investors fled to gold to seek safety. However, the decision was later deferred until July 09 following talks with European Commission President which eased fears immediately. Hence, the gold pulled back to the fresh weekly lows. The underlying structural concerns have not disappeared. Trump’s controversial tax bill passed by the House of Representative added more to the fiscal worries of the US as the bill could potentially add $3.8 trillion to the US fiscal deficit. Currently, the federal debt mounts to $36 trillion, weighing heavily on the dollar. Moreover, the US Treasury yields have hit highs not seen since 2023. Rising yields typically weigh on the non-yielding assets like gold. The US dollar index is also up on the day, partially recovering the Monday’s losses. However, the gold’s downside could be limited as the geopolitical risks like Israel’s military action in Gaza and Russia’s aerial assault on Ukraine could elevate global uncertainty. Moreover, Trump calling Putin crazy and suggesting new sanctions on Russia may further exacerbate the situation. Key Events for Gold Today US Durable Goods Orders (April) Gold Price Technical Analysis: $3,292 remains pivot The 4-hour chart for gold reveals a corrective downside, supported by the 20-period SMA and key level of $3,300. Despite the pullback, the broad uptrend remains intact with the next support emerging at $3,292. Contrarily, if the bulls reclaim the $3,365 resistance zone, the upside can extend to $3,435 with the next target to test all-time highs at $3,500. However, failure to hold the $3,292 level may trigger a deeper correction. However, the dip buying will remain attractive for the investors. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/05/27/gold-price-retreats-to-3300-as-us-yields-hit-fresh-highs/

2025-05-26 10:21

The AUD/USD outlook remains stubbornly bullish, breaking 7-month highs amid broad dollar weakness. Dovish Fed and US fiscal deficit concerns weigh on the greenback. Delayed tariffs and improved risk sentiment support the Aussie. The AUD/USD outlook is strongly bullish as the pair extends its winning streak in the new week. The price built on Friday’s rally pierced the key psychological mark of 0.6500. It’s the highest price point since Nov 2024. It shows loss of confidence in the US dollar. The Reserve Bank of Australia recently reduced its rates by 25 bps. It’s a dovish move that could deteriorate AUD’s strength. However, inflation data is vital to watch now. Towering US fiscal concerns dominate the narrative for the US dollar. President Trump’s “Big, Beautiful Bill” passed in the lower house and sent to the Senate. The bill is projected to add $3.8 trillion to the Federal deficit. The fears have heightened about long-term sustainability, triggering a strong sell-off in the Greenback. Other factors for the US dollar include downbeat US CPI and PPI data, suggesting a slowdown in the price pressure. Also, the Fed’s dovish outlook points at two rate cuts of 25 bps by end of the year. Geopolitics and policy uncertainty, especially around Trump’s tariffs have eroded institutional confidence. Big funds are gradually rotating out of USD asset due to economic instability. Moreover, the delay of 50% tariffs on EU imports until July 09 has improved the risk sentiment supporting global equities and risk-sensitive currencies like Australian dollar. Despite the bullish tone, geopolitical worries can limit the Aussie’s upside. China has accuses the US of violating trade agreements by restricting Huawei’s access to Ascend AI chips. China has hinted to retaliate as well. AUD/USD Key Events Ahead There is no major data release due today. AUD/USD Technical Outlook: Bulls Aiming for 0.6680 The AUD/USD technical outlook remains bullish on the daily chart. The price is wobbling around the key resistance level of 0.6500. The next resistance level emerges at 0.6680. The downside remains supported by the 20-day SMA at 0.6450. The 14-day RSI value is around 60.0 which indicates a potential to move further up. Meanwhile, 20-day SMA is also pointing upwards. However, the pair needs to clear the trendline resistance at 0.6573 which is today’s top as well. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/05/26/aud-usd-outlook-aussie-breaks-higher-as-dollar-erodes/

2025-05-26 09:30

The GBP/USD forecast turns positive, marking fresh 39-month top. The US dollar faces pressure due to mounting deficit concerns linked to Trump’s tax bill and coming up rate cuts. Technical outlook is bullish with the pair trading in ascending channel and nearing key resistance. The GBP/USD forecast turns strongly bullish after a corrective pullback. The pair managed to breach the 39-month top amid favorable UK macroeconomic data and growing pressure on the US dollar. The British pound gains traction following stronger than expected UK retail sales data and persistent inflation. The indicators led to speculation that the Bank of England may pause rate cut in the June meeting, aiding to GBP demand. On the other hand, the US dollar stays under notable selling pressure. Political and fiscal uncertainties around “One Beautiful Bill” endorsed by President Trump has thickened the concerns related to inflating fiscal deficit. According to Congressional Budget Office, the bill may widen the deficit by $3.8 trillion due to tax breaks. On top of that, Moody downgraded the US credit rating from AAA to AA1, citing spiraling debt to GDP projections. Meanwhile, the Fed officials have shown cautious tone due to economic uncertainty stemming from tariffs and stagflation risks. The markets are increasingly pricing in rate cuts in 2025. GBP/USD Key Events Ahead Due to US and UK bank holiday, there is no significant economic data or event due today. GBP/USD Technical Forecast: Rising Channel Aiming for 1.4000 The GBP/USD pair remains in a rising channel, indicating strong bullish momentum. The immediate resistance emerges at 1.3600 resistance level while eying 1.3960 – 1.4000 zone as a long-term target. The immediate support appears at 1.3500 psychological level ahead of 9-day EMA at 1.3428, lower band of rising channel at 1.3310. The 14-day RSI is approaching 70 level which indicates overbought scenario. Hence, a short-term correction can occur. If the bulls fail to sustain above 1.3445, the trend could weaken and drag towards 1.3300 to 1.3100 area. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/05/26/gbp-usd-forecast-pound-strengthens-amid-us-deficit-woes/