2023-10-31 10:01
The BOJ tiptoed away from its longstanding monetary stimulus program. The yen depreciated by approximately 0.8%. The dollar continued to be supported by the possibility of another Fed rate hike. The USD/JPY outlook is optimistic today, driven by the yen’s decline, which finds itself skimming the depths of a one-year low against the dollar. This change in fortune unfolded when the Bank of Japan (BOJ) tiptoed away from its longstanding monetary stimulus program. However, this cautious approach has left some investors yearning for more substantial measures. -If you are interested in automated forex trading, check our detailed guide- Notably, the BOJ announced its commitment to maintaining the 10-year government bond yield near 0%. However, they redefined 1.0% as a loose “upper bound” rather than a rigid cap. Furthermore, they eliminated their pledge to defend this level by buying an unlimited amount of bonds. Some analysts considered this a slow end to the BOJ’s controversial YCC regime. Still, the yen fell by nearly 0.8%, surpassing the 150 per dollar mark and reaching an intraday low of 150.26. The yen’s weakening had been anticipated, partly due to a Nikkei report on Monday suggesting that the BOJ might allow 10-year JGB yields to exceed 1%. Norihiro Yamaguchi, senior economist at Oxford Economics, stated, “The market had already priced in today’s decision due to the Nikkei article. Some had expected a complete elimination of YCC, which did not occur.” Meanwhile, the US dollar showed broad strength. The index appeared poised to end the month with minimal changes. Nonetheless, analysts pointed out that the dollar continued to be supported by the possibility of another Fed rate hike. It reflects the ongoing resilience of the US economy. USD/JPY key events today Investors expect one significant report from the US, The CB consumer confidence report. USD/JPY technical outlook: Bearish sentiment flips to bullish. The USD/JPY price dipped to the 149.00 support level before pulling back sharply. Moreover, the sharp reversal broke above the 30-SMA and the key 150.00 resistance level. Similarly, the RSI dipped to near oversold levels before returning to trade in bullish territory. These moves indicate a sudden shift in market sentiment from bearish to bullish. If you are interested in guaranteed stop-loss forex brokers, check our detailed guide- However, for this shift to lead to a bullish trend, the price must start making higher highs and lows. That means a break above the 150.75 resistance level. Otherwise, the price might start a period of consolidation near the 150.00 key level. https://www.forexcrunch.com/usd-jpy-outlook-yen-slides-amid-boj-policy-shift/
2023-10-30 09:35
Recent data indicated a significant increase in US consumer spending in September. Markets are pricing a 19% chance of a rate hike in December. The Bank of Japan started its two-day monetary policy meeting on Monday. The USD/JPY outlook for Monday hinted at a modestly bullish trend, with the dollar standing strong and holding the yen near the 150 mark. Meanwhile, all eyes were on the Bank of Japan’s policy announcement. -If you are interested in automated forex trading, check our detailed guide- The dollar index held steady as investors assessed the effects of robust US economic data on the Federal Reserve’s interest rate outlook. Notably, recent data indicated a significant increase in US consumer spending in September. It sets a positive trajectory for spending in the fourth quarter. Markets expect the Federal Reserve to maintain current interest rates later this week. However, the markets are pricing in a 19% chance of a rate hike in December. The Bank of Japan started its two-day monetary policy meeting on Monday. It marks the start of a week that includes interest rate decisions from the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of England. Additionally, there are several PMI reports, Eurozone inflation figures, and US nonfarm payrolls to consider. Carol Kong, a currency strategist at the Commonwealth Bank of Australia, noted, “It’s undeniably a packed week. However, the BOJ meeting is the most intriguing one, especially with the growing speculation about potential policy adjustments.” With the recent upsurge in global interest rates, there’s mounting pressure on the Bank of Japan to modify its bond yield control. As such, there are rumors that the dovish central bank may raise its existing yield cap during this week’s meeting. USD/JPY key events today Investors are not expecting important reports from the US or Japan today. Therefore, there is a chance the pair will move sideways. USD/JPY technical outlook: Bears challenge the uptrend below 150.00. The USD/JPY price has broken below the 150.00 key level and the 30-SMA as sentiment shifts to bearish. Similarly, the RSI has broken below the key 50 level, separating bullish from bearish momentum. If you are interested in guaranteed stop-loss forex brokers, check our detailed guide- However, bears face the challenge of a solid support level at 149.50. An initial attempt to take over failed when the price paused at 149.50 and failed to break below. Nevertheless, this time, bears are showing stronger momentum, as seen in the RSI. Therefore, the price will likely break below 149.50 to retest the 149.00 support level. https://www.forexcrunch.com/usd-jpy-outlook-dollar-anchors-yen-near-150-ahead-of-boj/
2023-10-30 08:39
September witnessed a remarkable surge in Australian retail sales. The likelihood of an RBA hike in November has risen to 61%. Israeli troops, supported by tanks, initiated a ground assault in Gaza. The AUD/USD forecast shines with optimism as September saw a remarkable surge in Australian retail sales, marking the quickest growth in eight months. It indicates a notable resilience in consumer spending. Consequently, it strengthens the case for a potential interest rate hike as early as next week. -If you are interested in automated forex trading, check our detailed guide- At the moment, markets expect that the Reserve Bank of Australia will implement a quarter-point rate hike in November. The probability rose to 61%, up from 58%. Notably, nominal retail sales in September increased by 0.9% compared to August. It exceeded analysts’ expectations for a 0.3% increase and was an upward revision of the 0.3% gain in August. Moreover, this positive trend bodes well for economic growth. Taylor Nugent, a markets economist at National Australia Bank, stated, “For the RBA, we don’t believe the November decision will hinge on a single monthly retail figure. However, today’s data provides yet another piece of evidence that consumers remain resilient.” Meanwhile, investors remained cautious as Palestinians in northern Gaza reported intense air and artillery strikes on Monday. Israeli troops, supported by tanks, initiated a ground assault in the area, increasing tensions. Consequently, there are increased international calls for the protection of civilians. Additionally, Chris Weston, head of research at Pepperstone, noted, “The geopolitical backdrop in the Middle East continues to be a major factor influencing the market.” AUD/USD key events today Traders will keep absorbing recent data as no major events will come from Australia or the US. AUD/USD technical forecast: Bulls break through the 0.6350 barrier. On the technical side, AUD/USD is crossing above the 0.6350 key level. This move comes after the price found support at the 30-SMA, showing the start of a bullish trend. At the same time, the RSI found support at the pivotal 50 level before bouncing higher into bullish territory. If you are interested in guaranteed stop-loss forex brokers, check our detailed guide- However, Aussie has been moving sideways on a larger scale. The price has mostly kept between the 0.6300 support and the 0.6400 resistance. If the price detaches from the 0.6350 key level, bulls will target the next resistance at 0.6400. Moreover, a break above this level would mean a breakout from the larger consolidation. https://www.forexcrunch.com/aud-usd-forecast-australian-retail-sales-skyrocket-in-sep/
2023-10-28 12:03
The pound is trading near a six-month low reached earlier in October. UK jobs data indicated a decrease in inflationary pressures. The Bank of England (BoE) will likely maintain its current rates next week. The GBP/USD weekly forecast is bearish as investors have locked their eyes on the Bank of England (BOE), expecting the central bank to wrap up its tightening cycle. Ups and downs of GBP/USD The pound ended the week lower due to market apprehension amid the ongoing Middle East war, which boosted the dollar. All eyes are now focusing on the upcoming Bank of England meeting. Currently, the pound is trading near a six-month low of 1.2039, reached earlier in October. -If you are interested in automated forex trading, check our detailed guide- Notably, a UK jobs report on Tuesday indicated a decrease in inflationary pressures within the labor market. This data caused the pound to drop, as it reinforced expectations that the BoE would maintain its current interest rates at the upcoming meeting. Moreover, the British currency was vulnerable to global trends, particularly the dollar’s strength. Next week’s key events for GBP/USD Next week, GBP/USD traders will watch monetary policy meetings from the US and the UK. Markets are expecting the Fed to hold rates steady in November. Moreover, they are pricing an 80% chance of the same happening in December. Meanwhile, several reports this week confirmed the expectation that the Bank of England (BoE) will maintain its current rates during its policy meeting next week. The BoE will likely keep the rates unchanged at 5.25% on November 2, as per the consensus among most economists. Finally, market participants will focus on US employment data, which might show continued strength in the labor market. GBP/USD weekly technical forecast: Bears set to retest 1.2050 support. On the charts, the GBP/USD pair trades between the 1.2050 support and the 1.2324 resistance levels. Although the price is chopping through the 22-SMA, the RSI shows that bears have the upper hand. The RSI trades in bearish territory under 50. Moreover, the previous trend was bearish, with the price respecting the 22-SMA as resistance. It makes it likely the downtrend pauses as bears take a break. If you are interested in guaranteed stop-loss forex brokers, check our detailed guide- As such, there is a high chance bears will challenge the 1.2050 support in the coming week. A break below this support would continue the downtrend. However, if the price breaks above the 1.2324 resistance, we could see a bullish trend reversal. https://www.forexcrunch.com/gbp-usd-weekly-forecast-boes-tightening-nears-finish-line/
2023-10-28 11:57
The European Central Bank paused its aggressive monetary policy tightening. The US economy expanded by nearly 5% during the third quarter. Futures markets are almost certain the Fed won’t raise rates in November. In the EUR/USD weekly forecast, the winds are blowing with a distinctly bearish tone due to the recent decision by the ECB to hit the brakes on its rate hike campaign. Ups and downs of EUR/USD EUR/USD had a bearish week, where the European Central Bank paused its aggressive monetary policy tightening. Meanwhile, rising tensions in the Middle East and positive data supported the dollar. -If you are interested in automated forex trading, check our detailed guide- Since July 2022, the ECB has increased interest rates by 4.5 percentage points to address soaring inflation. However, they pledged to halt further rate hikes last month. This decision comes as the record-high borrowing costs are beginning to impact the economy. Elsewhere, the US economy expanded by nearly 5% during the third quarter. This growth was driven by increased wages resulting from a tight labor market. Next week’s key events for EUR/USD Next week will be eventful for the EUR/USD as the Federal Reserve will hold its monetary policy meeting. Moreover, the US will release data on employment. Futures markets are almost certain the Fed won’t raise rates in November. Moreover, they give an 80% probability of rate stability in December, as per CME’s FedWatch Tool. Policymakers plan to maintain the current key rate through most of 2024, which is longer than markets had expected. Meanwhile, the employment report could continue showing a robust labor market. EUR/USD weekly technical forecast: Bulls rally to reverse the trend. The EUR/USD price has gone above the 22-SMA on the daily chart. The move shows that bulls are attempting to reverse the trend. However, the RSI is still in bearish territory below 50, showing bears are also still strong. If you are interested in guaranteed stop-loss forex brokers, check our detailed guide- The price found strong resistance at the 1.0700 key level, where the price paused and fell to retest the 22-SMA. If the SMA is firm as support, the price will likely ascend in the coming week to retest and take out the 1.0700 resistance. However, if bears are still strong, as seen in the RSI, the price might break below the SMA and the 1.0500 key support level. Such a move would signal the continuation of the downtrend as it would lead to a lower low. https://www.forexcrunch.com/eur-usd-weekly-forecast-ecbs-hike-campaign-grinds-to-a-halt/
2023-10-27 12:29
The bias remains bullish as long as it stays above the uptrend line. The US data could bring high action later today. I’ve drawn a descending pitchfork, hoping to catch a new leg. The USD/JPY price is trading in the red at 150.01. After the last rally, a downside correction was due. Still, the bias is bullish despite temporary retreats. Yesterday, the price registered sharp movements in both directions, signaling an indecision. The DXY’s short-term retreat weakened the greenback, while the Japanese Yen Futures helped the Yen. -Are you interested in learning about the forex signals telegram group? Click here for details- Surprisingly or not, the price retreated even if the US reported positive economic data in the last trading session. Also, don’t forget that the ECB meeting had a big impact. Today, the Tokyo Core CPI registered 2.7% growth, beating the 2.5% expected and the 2.5% growth in the previous reporting period. Later, the US data should drive the markets. The Core PCE Price Index is expected to report 0.3% growth versus the 0.1% growth in the previous reporting period, while Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment could remain steady at 63.0 points. Furthermore, Personal Income may report a 0.4% growth again, while Personal Spending could announce a 0.5% growth. From the technical point of view, the USD/JPY pair retreated a little, but the bias remains bullish as long as it stays above the uptrend line. -Are you interested in learning about forex indicators? Click here for details- The price action developed a potential rising wedge pattern, but the formation is far from confirmed. After its amazing upward movement, a corrective phase could be natural. I’ve drawn a descending pitchfork, hoping to catch a new leg. Still, a potential larger correction could be activated only by a valid breakdown below the uptrend line and by the upper median line (UML) retest. Testing the uptrend line may announce new bullish momentum. https://www.forexcrunch.com/usd-jpy-price-loses-steam-above-150-0-eyes-on-us-pce/
