2024-09-10 10:32

UK unemployment claims fell sharply from 102,300 to 23,700. After the nonfarm payrolls report, the likelihood of a 50 bps September Fed rate cut fell. Economists predict soft US inflation figures on Wednesday. The GBP/USD price analysis shows a brief rebound due to positive UK employment data. Nevertheless, the downtrend remains intact as the dollar strengthens ahead of Wednesday’s US Consumer Price Index report. –Are you interested to learn more about forex options trading? Check our detailed guide- Data on Tuesday revealed that the UK labor market has remained mostly resilient despite high interest rates. Despite some softness, employment remains high. Notably, unemployment claims fell sharply from 102,300 to 23,700. However, wage growth slowed to an over two-year low, supporting more rate cuts by the Bank of England. Experts believe the BoE will continue cutting rates but will do so gradually. Similarly, Friday’s jobs report boosted the dollar as it showed both weakness and strength. The US labor market has declined in recent months. Job growth has slowed significantly, and the unemployment rate has jumped, solidifying expectations for a rate cut. However, there is still a debate on whether it will be a massive or small cut. After the nonfarm payrolls report, the likelihood of a 50 bps rate cut fell as the unemployment rate eased. However, there is one more major report that might shift this outlook. Economists predict soft inflation figures on Wednesday. The annual number might come in at 2.6%, closer to the 2% target. Bigger-than-expected easing could increase bets for a massive rate cut. Otherwise, the Fed will likely settle for a small rate cut. GBP/USD key events today Investors will keep digesting UK employment figures as no more key reports will come out today. GBP/USD technical price analysis: Bullish pullback could pause at 30-SMA On the technical side, the GBP/USD price is rising to retest the 30-SMA. However, the bearish bias remains since it trades below the 30-SMA with the RSI under 50. Notably, bears showed massive strength when the price revisited the 1.3200 key level. It bounced lower with a strong bearish candle, pushing below the 30-SMA. –Are you interested to learn about forex robots? Check our detailed guide- The current move might reach the 30-SMA before bears emerge. If they return, the price will fall to face a solid support zone comprising the 0.5 Fib and 1.3000 key psychological levels. A break below this zone will strengthen the bearish bias. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/09/10/gbp-usd-price-analysis-uk-employment-gains-fuel-rebound/

2024-09-10 10:02

The AUD/USD pair has slipped to new lows since Friday. The likelihood of a 50 bps September Fed rate cut has fallen from around 50% to 30%. Business conditions in Australia fell by 3 points to +3, a two-and-a-half-year low. The AUD/USD outlook leans to further decline as the dollar steadies before pivotal US inflation numbers. In the previous sessions, the greenback rallied as the likelihood of a massive Fed rate cut fell after Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report. –Are you interested to learn more about forex options trading? Check our detailed guide- The AUD/USD pair has slipped to new lows since Friday. The decline came as the dollar soared after a mixed US employment report. Market participants had been waiting for clues on the Fed’s first rate cut size. Notably, job growth slowed while unemployment eased. The report showed that the labor market was gradually easing. Therefore, it indicated no need for a massive rate cut, boosting the dollar. The likelihood of a 50 bps September Fed rate cut has fallen from around 50% to 30%. The CPI report might shed more light on the upcoming policy meeting. Analysts believe price pressures have cooled from 2.9% to 2.6% in August. Meanwhile, the monthly figure could hold steady at 0.2%. The CPI report will support a 50 bps rate cut if inflation eases more than expected. On the other hand, if inflation meets forecasts or is slightly higher, bets for a 25 bps rate cut will increase. Meanwhile, data on Tuesday showed that business conditions in Australia fell by 3 points to +3, a two-and-a-half-year low in August. Although the economy is weak, policymakers maintain a cautious tone, saying inflation remains high. Nevertheless, investors are pricing an 80% chance of an RBA rate cut in December. AUD/USD key events today Investors do not expect any key economic reports from Australia or the US today. Therefore, the pair might consolidate. AUD/USD technical outlook: Downtrend could test the 0.6600 support On the technical side, the AUD/USD price is on a clear downtrend and has made a new low below the 0.6700 key level. The price sits far below the SMA with the RSI near the oversold region, indicating a strong bearish bias. –Are you interested to learn about forex robots? Check our detailed guide- Initially, bears had paused at the 0.6700 support level, allowing the price to retest the 30-SMA. However, price action showed weak bullish momentum. Consequently, the price soon bounced lower with a strong bearish candle. With such solid momentum, the price will likely soon reach the 0.6600 support. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/09/10/aud-usd-outlook-downside-bias-intact-ahead-of-us-cpi/

2024-09-09 10:23

The Canadian dollar fell to a two-week low on Friday. Canada’s unemployment rate jumped from 6.4% to 6.5%, raising the chances of the Bank of Canada making further rate cuts. The US economy added 142,000 jobs, below expectations of 160,000. The USD/CAD outlook shows a bullish sentiment shift as investors weigh the US and Canada’s labor sectors. Reports on Friday showed the US labor market was not doing as badly as initially feared. On the other hand, Canada’s unemployment rate jumped, raising Bank of Canada rate cut expectations. –Are you interested to learn more about forex options trading? Check our detailed guide- The Canadian dollar fell to a two-week low on Friday as domestic data pointed to more significant rate cuts in Canada. Canada’s economy added 22,100 jobs, missing forecasts of 23,700. At the same time, the unemployment rate jumped from 6.4% to 6.5%. The labor market is declining rapidly, which could push the Bank of Canada to consider more significant rate cuts. After the report, markets moved to price 63-bps of rate cuts to come. Meanwhile, the US labor market was in slightly better shape. The economy added 142,000 jobs, below expectations of 160,000. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate eased to 4.2%, reducing fears of a recession. The last report had spooked investors, with the unemployment rate jumping to 4.3%. As a result, markets had increased bets on a 50-bps rate cut. However, with the latest figures, the Fed might prefer a 25 bps rate cut. Investors will focus on US consumer inflation data on Wednesday this week. Economists expect the headline figure to cool further from 2.9% to 2.6%, bringing price pressures closer to the Fed’s target. USD/CAD key events today The pair might start the weekly slowly, as neither the US nor Canada will release any major reports today. USD/CAD technical outlook: Price action supports more upside On the technical side, the USD/CAD price is approaching the 1.3600 key resistance level. The price sits above the 30-SMA, and the RSI is near the overbought region, indicating a bullish bias. The trend recently reversed, with bears losing control at the 1.3450 support level. –Are you interested to learn about forex robots? Check our detailed guide- However, the price momentarily dipped below the SMA after bulls took charge. Price action here showed that bullish momentum was stronger. The price made a doji candlestick pattern before making a large bullish candle. Consequently, USD/CAD might soon break above 1.3600. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/09/09/usd-cad-outlook-us-and-canadian-jobs-data-push-buyers/

2024-09-09 09:47

The USD/PY pair reached new lows on Friday after a mixed US employment report. The US nonfarm payrolls report showed slower job growth in August. Japan’s GDP grew by 2.9% compared to estimates of 3.2%. The USD/JPY forecast shows a slight recovery in the pair from Friday’s plunge as the yen loses some of its shine. At the same time, the dollar gained as it became clear that the Fed might cut rates gradually. –Are you interested to learn more about forex options trading? Check our detailed guide- After a mixed US employment report, the USD/PY pair reached new lows on Friday. The nonfarm payrolls report showed slower job growth, with the economy adding 142,000 jobs compared to estimates of 160,000. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate eased to 4.2%. The initial reaction was a decline in the US dollar. However, it recovered as it became clear that the labor market was slowing down steadily. Therefore, the risk of a recession remains low. Although most major peers lost against the dollar on Friday, the yen remained steady due to rate hike optimism. Notably, on Thursday, BoJ board member Hajime Takata said the central bank should continue hiking interest rates. Nevertheless, he emphasized a cautious approach amid increased market volatility. Policymakers are ready to push interest rates higher as long as economic consumption increases. However, by Monday morning, economic data from Japan dampened some of this rate hike optimism. Japan’s economy grew slower than forecast in the second quarter. The GDP grew by 2.9% compared to estimates of 3.2%. Weaker-than-expected economic performance creates a challenge for the BoJ’s rate hike outlook. USD/JPY key events today Market participants do not expect any high-impact economic releases in Japan or the US. USD/JPY technical forecast: Bears found rock bottom at 142.03 support On the technical side, the USD/JPY price is recovering after finding support at the 142.03 level. Nevertheless, the price trades below the 30-SMA, with the RSI in bearish territory. Therefore, the bias is bearish, meaning the rebound might only be temporary. –Are you interested to learn about forex robots? Check our detailed guide- Bulls are approaching a solid resistance zone comprising the 0.382 Fib and 144.00 key levels. Moreover, the SMA trades just above this zone. Consequently, the price will likely pause at this level and bounce lower. A break below 142.03 will confirm a continuation of the downtrend. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/09/09/usd-jpy-forecast-strong-pullback-as-yen-loses-luster/

2024-09-07 11:19

US manufacturing business activity data raised fears of a recession. US nonfarm payrolls missed forecasts, showing a drop in demand. The dollar declined as rate-cut expectations rose. The EUR/USD weekly forecast is bullish as US data continuously supports a rate cut at the September Fed meeting. Ups and downs of EUR/USD The EUR/USD pair had a bullish week but closed below its highs as investors reacted to a mix of US economic reports. When the week began, US manufacturing business activity data raised fears of a recession, boosting the dollar. However, it also raised the likelihood of a 50 bps rate cut. –Are you interested to learn more about forex options trading? Check our detailed guide- Meanwhile, employment data showed a weaker labor market with fewer job vacancies and slower private-sector growth. At the same time, nonfarm payrolls missed forecasts, showing a drop in demand. Nevertheless, some positive reports, including business activity in the services sector, jumped. Overall, the dollar declined as rate-cut expectations rose. Next week’s key events for EUR/USD Next week, investors will focus on US inflation data. On Wednesday, the US will release the consumer price index. The last report showed cooling price pressures, moving closer to the 2% target. However, this time, the Fed has shifted its focus to growth since inflation is already on a consistent downtrend. Recent inflation reports have increased confidence that high rates have tamed price pressures. As a result, policymakers will likely cut rates on Wednesday, regardless of the outcome. However, a softer-than-expected report could convince them to vote for a 50 bps rate cut. Otherwise, it will likely be a 25 bps rate cut. However, if there is an unexpected jump, it could affect policy moves after September. A less aggressive Fed could boost the dollar, pushing EUR/USD lower. EUR/USD weekly technical forecast: Price pauses at solid support zone On the technical side, the EUR/USD price has returned to retest the 22-SMA and the 0.382 Fib level. However, the price has paused above these key support levels, showing bears are exhausted. Moreover, it indicates a possible continuation of the bullish trend. –Are you interested to learn about forex robots? Check our detailed guide- Since the price broke above the 1.0901 resistance, bullish momentum surged, pushing the price to the 1.1201 critical level. At the same time, the RSI entered the overbought region. Given the bullish bias, the price might soon bounce off the SMA to make a higher high. Consequently, EUR/USD might break above 1.1201 in the coming week. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/09/07/eur-usd-weekly-forecast-us-data-builds-case-for-sep-rate-cut/

2024-09-07 11:16

US employment figures showed that the labor market is slowing down. The US nonfarm payrolls report showed a smaller-than-expected job increase in August. US inflation data will be the last major report before the Fed’s policy meeting. The GBP/USD weekly forecast shows a temporary pause in a solid bullish trend as investors await the first Fed rate cut while the US NFP gives no clear direction. Ups and downs of GBP/USD The pound had a bearish week, fluctuating amid mixed US economic data. Meanwhile, the UK provided few catalysts. Employment figures showed that the labor market is slowing down. Vacancies fell more than expected, and private job growth slowed. –Are you interested to learn more about forex options trading? Check our detailed guide- Meanwhile, the nonfarm payrolls report showed a smaller-than-expected job increase in August. However, the unemployment rate held steady at 4.2%. Meanwhile, data on business activity in the services sector showed a better-than-expected improvement, indicating a resilient economy. Next week’s key events for GBP/USD Next week, investors will pay attention to the UK’s employment and GDP data. Meanwhile, the US will release consumer and producer inflation data. The pound has benefitted in recent weeks due to expectations for fewer rate cuts in the UK compared to the US. Therefore, if UK wage growth confirms fears that British services inflation remains high, BoE rate cut expectations might drop, boosting the pound. Moreover, the pound would rally, given the declining US labor market. The Fed is in a better position to start lowering borrowing costs. Meanwhile, US inflation data will be the last major report before the Fed’s policy meeting. Softer-than-expected figures will increase the likelihood of a 50-bps rate cut. GBP/USD weekly technical forecast: Bullish trend pauses for a brief pullback On the technical side, the GBP/USD price is in a bullish trend. Although the price chops through the 22-SMA, it has maintained an upward trajectory. This means it has made a series of higher highs and lows. At the same time, the RSI has traded mostly above 50, supporting solid bullish momentum. –Are you interested to learn about forex robots? Check our detailed guide- Bulls recently broke above the critical resistance level of 1.3000. However, they failed to trade above the 1.3200 resistance, allowing bears to take charge. Nevertheless, the bullish bias remains intact since the price is still above the SMA. Therefore, the pullback will likely pause at the SMA and bounce higher. On the other hand, if it punctures the SMA and the 1.3000 level, it might find support at the bullish trendline. A new high above 1.3200 will continue the bullish trend. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/09/07/gbp-usd-weekly-forecast-bulls-stall-bracing-for-fed-rate-cut/