2025-04-17 11:58
The USD/CAD outlook shows relief for the loonie after a BoC pause. Market participants are pricing a 50% chance of a BoC rate cut in June. The greenback paused its decline after US retail sales rose by 1.4%. The USD/CAD outlook shows relief for the Canadian dollar after the Bank of Canada paused after seven rate cuts. Meanwhile, the US dollar recovered after retail sales data revealed solid demand. However, tariff uncertainty kept a lid on gains. -Are you interested in learning about the forex indicators? Click here for details- The Bank of Canada kept interest rates unchanged on Wednesday, pausing an aggressive policy easing cycle. The central bank has been among the most aggressive in lowering borrowing costs. Canada’s economy is quite sensitive to high interest rates. As a result, it was among the first to start deteriorating, pushing the BoC to ease monetary policy. Therefore, the pause is a sign that the economy has stabilized. Nevertheless, market participants are pricing a 50% chance that the central bank will cut rates again in June. Moreover, data on Tuesday revealed a sharp inflation decline that might motivate policymakers to continue the easing campaign. Still, they noted that Trump’s tariffs had made it difficult to forecast growth and inflation. Elsewhere, the greenback paused its decline after US retail sales rose by 1.4%, above estimates. The upbeat figures indicated robust consumer spending and demand. Therefore, it eased pressure on the Fed to lower borrowing costs. Powell said the central bank was in no hurry to cut interest rates. USD/CAD key events today US unemployment claims USD/CAD technical outlook: Consolidating below 30-SMA On the technical side, the USD/CAD price remains in a tight consolidation between the 30-SMA and the 1.618 Fib extension level. Still, the bias is bearish since the price trades below the SMA with the RSI under 50. Bears recently made a sharp move, breaking below the 1.4050 support to make a lower low. However, the decline paused when the price met a solid support zone comprising the 1.618 Fib extension and the 1.3800 support level. While the price paused here, the RSI made a bullish divergence, indicating weaker bearish momentum. The price will soon break above the 30-SMA if the divergence plays out, allowing USD/CAD to retest the 1.4050 resistance level. Meanwhile, if bears regain momentum, the price will break below the support zone to make fresh lows. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/04/17/usd-cad-outlook-loonie-relieved-as-boc-hits-pause/
2025-04-17 09:06
The AUD/USD forecast shows a resilient labor market in Australia. Traders are almost fully pricing a 25-bps RBA rate cut in May. Powell maintained his cautious tone, stating there was no hurry to lower borrowing costs. The AUD/USD forecast shows a resilient labor market in Australia. However, market participants are still pricing an RBA rate cut at the next meeting. Meanwhile, the dollar rebounded after data in the previous session revealed solid consumer spending in March. -Are you interested in learning about the forex indicators? Click here for details- Australia released its employment figures on Thursday, showing stronger job growth and weaker unemployment. Employment came in at 32,200, missing forecasts of a 39,800 increase. However, it was a big improvement from the previous reading. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate came below estimates of 4.1%, showing solid demand. However, the strong figures did not lower expectations for a Reserve Bank of Australia rate cut in May. At this meeting, market participants had moved to price a massive rate cut. However, those bets have eased, with traders expecting a quarter-point rate cut. Meanwhile, the dollar recovered slightly from its slump after upbeat sales data. Retail sales increased by 1.4%, beating forecasts of a 1.3% increase. Moreover, it was a massive jump from the previous 0.2% increase. The data eased fears of a looming recession and lowered Fed rate cut expectations. Additionally, Powell maintained his cautious tone, stating there was no hurry to lower borrowing costs. Policymakers need more time to assess the impact of Trump’s policy moves. However, the outlook for the dollar remains clouded as the trade war with China rages on. AUD/USD key events today US unemployment claims AUD/USD technical forecast: Bulls weaken before reaching the 0.6401 resistance On the technical side, the AUD/USD price is pulling back towards the 30-SMA after a steep rally. However, the bullish bias remains strong with the price above the SMA and the RSI above 50. The trend recently reversed when the RSI made a bullish divergence. As a result, the price broke above the 0.6200 resistance and made a steep rally. However, the slope became shallower as the price rose higher. Bulls were approaching the 0.6401 resistance level. However, before this, the price might retest the 30-SMA. A break above the 0.6401 resistance will strengthen the bullish bias. However, if the level holds firm, the price might break below the SMA, indicating a bearish shift in sentiment. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/04/17/aud-usd-forecast-markets-eye-rba-cut-despite-solid-jobs-data/
2025-04-16 11:10
The GBP/USD forecast shows a strong pound despite downbeat UK inflation figures. Consumer inflation in the UK increased by 2.6%, softer than the forecast of 2.7%. Market participants are waiting to see the state of consumer spending in the US. The GBP/USD forecast shows strong bullish sentiment despite downbeat UK inflation figures. The pound rose to new highs on Wednesday as the dollar resumed its decline amid economic uncertainty. Meanwhile, market participants were looking forward to the US retail sales report for monetary policy clues. -Are you interested in learning about the forex indicators? Click here for details- Data on Wednesday revealed that consumer inflation in the UK increased by 2.6%, softer than the forecast of 2.7%. At the same time, it declined from the previous reading of 2.8%. The poor numbers led to an increase in Bank of England rate cut expectations. The likelihood of a rate cut in May rose from 80% to 86%. However, economists believe inflation will rebound in April. At the same time, BoE policymakers have cautioned that it is too early to judge the impact of Trump’s tariffs on inflation. As a result, the pound barely reacted to the news. Meanwhile, the dollar remained fragile as the outlook for the US economy dimmed. Trump’s tariff moves have discouraged investors from holding US assets. As a result, the greenback has lost some of its safe-haven appeal. Market participants are waiting to see the state of consumer spending in the US. The sales report will shape the outlook for Fed rate cuts. GBP/USD key events today US core retail sales m/m US retail sales m/m Fed Chair Powell speaks GBP/USD technical forecast: Higher high signals a strong uptrend On the technical side, the GBP/USD price has made a higher high, strengthening the bullish bias. It has broken past the 1.3200 resistance level and is trading well above the 30-SMA. Meanwhile, the RSI has entered deeper into the overbought region, indicating solid bullish momentum. GBP/USD has sustained a solid bullish rally without any significant pullbacks to the 30-SMA. However, bulls are getting exhausted. The price is making much smaller candles and is approaching the 1.272 Fib extension level. This level might be a strong hurdle that will trigger a pullback. Such an outcome would allow the price to retest the recently broken 1.3200 key level. However, the bullish bias will remain as long as the price stays above the SMA. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/04/16/gbp-usd-forecast-uk-inflation-miss-fails-to-deter-sterling-rally/
2025-04-16 09:08
The EUR/USD price analysis shows the euro rebounding after a brief pause. Market participants look forward to a likely European Central Bank rate cut on Thursday. The US will release its retail sales report. The EUR/USD price analysis shows the euro rebounding after a brief pause. The pause followed a strong rally as investors shifted from US to Eurozone assets amid economic uncertainty. However, after booking profits, traders are back for another rally. -Are you interested in learning about the forex indicators? Click here for details- The euro gained last week as Trump’s wild tariff decisions plunged investor confidence in US assets. As a result, there was a migration to the Eurozone, which seemed to be a more stable economy. Trump’s tariffs have increased the likelihood of a US recession. The trade war between China and the US has put both economies in vulnerable positions. However, there was some relief when Trump paused reciprocal tariffs for 90 days. Moreover, the dollar recovered slightly at the start of the week when Trump exempted smartphones and computers from tariffs. Elsewhere, data on Tuesday revealed that investor morale in Germany fell due to tariff concerns. Meanwhile, market participants look forward to a likely European Central Bank rate cut on Thursday. The move will further sell Eurozone assets as the best substitute for US assets. On the other hand, market participants await the US retail sales report for clues on Fed policy. An upbeat report will indicate solid consumer spending, easing Fed rate cut bets. Meanwhile, a downbeat report will pressure the Fed to lower borrowing costs. EUR/USD key events today US core retail Sales m/m US retail sales m/m Fed Chair Powell speaks EUR/USD technical price analysis: RSI shows bulls might need a break On the technical side, the EUR/USD price is climbing after pulling back to retest the 1.1302 key level. It trades above the 30-SMA, with the RSI above 50, suggesting a bullish bias. The uptrend recently soared past the 1.1302 resistance to make a higher high. However, while this happened, the RSI made a lower high, indicating a bearish divergence. This signals weaker bullish momentum. It shows bulls need a break to regain momentum before the uptrend continues. Therefore, EUR/USD might not break past the 1.1502 resistance. It might consolidate for some time before either making higher highs or reversing to the downside. A break above 1.1502 will strengthen the bullish bias. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/04/16/eur-usd-price-analysis-euro-resumes-rally-as-dollar-weakens/
2025-04-15 10:14
The USD/CAD price analysis shows a drop in volatility after recent global trade developments. The risk of a recession might push the Fed to cut interest rates. Canada will release crucial inflation figures today. The USD/CAD price analysis shows a drop in volatility as calm returns to markets after recent global trade developments. The dollar paused its decline after Trump exempted some imports from the recent tariffs. Meanwhile, the Canadian dollar held near recent peaks as market participants awaited crucial inflation figures from Canada. -Are you interested in learning about the forex indicators? Click here for details- The turmoil and volatility that affected most global markets eased further on Tuesday. Traders have paused to reflect on the implications of Trump’s tariffs. Policymakers on Monday noted that the risk of a recession might push the Fed to cut interest rates despite high inflation. The dollar paused its recent collapse after Trump exempted smartphones and computers from import tariffs. The move brought some relief to US assets. However, the ongoing trade war between China and the US will keep risk appetite low. Meanwhile, traders look forward to US retail sales data for more clues on future Fed moves. On the other hand, Canada will release crucial inflation figures today. Economists expect the monthly inflation figure to ease from 1.1% to 0.7%. An upbeat report will lower expectations for Bank of Canada rate cuts. This would support bets for a pause this week. Meanwhile, a soft report might increase rate-cut bets, hurting the loonie. USD/CAD key events today Canada CPI m/m Canada median CPI y/y Canada trimmed CPI y/y USD/CAD technical price analysis: Bears pause for breather at the 1.618 Fib extension On the technical side, the USD/CAD price has remained in consolidation near a solid support zone. However, it trades far below the 30-SMA, showing bears are in the lead. At the same time, the RSI trades near the oversold region, indicating solid bearish momentum. Bears have met a solid support zone comprising the 1.618 Fib extension and 1.3802 support level. After a steep decline, the price has paused as the SMA catches up. However, while the price has started moving sideways, the RSI is climbing, showing bears are losing steam. Therefore, USD/CAD might soon pull back to retest the 30-SMA. However, the downtrend will continue if the SMA holds firm and the price bounces lower. A break below the 1.3802 will strengthen the bearish bias. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/04/15/usd-cad-price-analysis-steadies-as-trade-war-fears-cool/
2025-04-15 08:32
The GBP/USD outlook shows a mixed picture of the UK labor market. Vacancies in the UK dropped in the three months to March. Trump’s tariffs have increased the likelihood of a recession. The GBP/USD outlook shows a mixed picture of the UK labor market with poor demand and strong wage growth. As a result, the pound held steady near its recent peaks. Meanwhile, the dollar drifted as market participants remained uncertain about Trump’s next tariff move. -Are you interested in learning about the forex indicators? Click here for details- Data on Tuesday revealed that vacancies in the UK dropped in the three months to March, a sign that the demand for labor was down. However, pay growth remained strong, with average weekly earnings rising by 5.9%. The mixed labor report had little impact on the pound, which has remained strong due to dollar weakness. At the same time, upbeat UK GDP data last week improved investor sentiment. On the other hand, the dollar was directionless on Tuesday after wild swings last week sent it tumbling. Market participants have paused to assess Trump’s recent tariff moves. The on and off levies have left most traders uncertain about the administration’s next move. However, the risk of a US recession looms large. On Monday, Fed’s Christopher Waller noted that Trump’s tariffs had increased the likelihood of a recession. Therefore, the Fed might be forced to lower borrowing costs despite high inflation. GBP/USD key events today After the UK employment report, market participants do not expect any more key releases from the UK or the US. GBP/USD technical outlook: RSI suggesting a pullback On the technical side, the GBP/USD price is challenging the 1.3200 resistance level. It trades well above the 30-SMA with the RSI near the overbought region, suggesting a strong bullish bias. Bullish momentum has remained strong since the price broke above the SMA and the 1.2880 key level. However, this momentum is fading. The first sign was when bears made a solid red candle. Since then, bulls have struggled to make higher highs. At the same time, the RSI has made a bearish divergence in the overbought region. If bulls are weaker, then the price might soon pull back. A deep pullback will retest the 30-SMA or the 1.3000 key support level. However, the bullish bias will remain intact as long as the price trades above the SMA. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/04/15/gbp-usd-outlook-pound-holds-steady-despite-mixed-jobs-data/
