2025-04-07 10:10
The AUD/USD outlook shows an increasing likelihood of a massive RBA rate cut. The trade war between China and the US escalated after Trump imposed new tariffs. Traders are pricing a 20% chance of a massive RBA rate cut in May. The AUD/USD outlook shows an increasing likelihood of a massive Reserve Bank of Australia rate cut. Notably, the Australian dollar held near a five-year low on Monday as risk appetite remained poor and the outlook for Australia’s economy dimmed. –Are you interested to learn more about South African forex brokers? Check our detailed guide- Expectations for an RBA rate cut increased on Monday amid worries of a global economic downturn. The risk-sensitive Australian dollar plunged last week after Trump imposed reciprocal tariffs on most of the US’s trading partners. The most affected was China, which is Australia’s major trading partner. The trade war between China and the US escalated after Trump imposed a total of over 60% tariffs on the Country. China has promised couter tariffs starting Thursday this week. These tariffs will significantly hurt China’s economy, pushing the Yuan lower. At the same time, the Aussies, a proxy for the Yuan will suffer. The outlook for Australia’s economy has dimmed with Trump’s latest move. As a result, market participants expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to step in and support growth. Traders are pricing a 20% chance that the central bank will implement a 50-bps rate cut in May. AUD/USD key events today Traders are not looking forward to any key releases from the US or Australia. Therefore, they will keep digesting Trump’s policy changes. AUD/USD technical outlook: Bears pause for breath at 0.6002 On the technical side, the AUD/USD price has halted its decline near the 0.6002 support level. Bears made a milestone move when they pushed the price below the 0.6200 key support level. Previously, AUD/USD was consolidating with no clear direction. The price kept chopping through the 30-SMA. -If you are interested in forex day trading then have a read of our guide to getting started- However, a surge in momentum allowed bears to push the price well below the SMA. At the same time, the RSI dipped into the oversold region. A strong catalyst allowed bears to give the market direction. However, after such a steep move, they are exhausted and have stopped to rest near the 0.6002 key level. Here, bulls might return for a brief pullback as the SMA catches up. However, as long as the price remains below the SMA, bears will likely break below 0.6002 to reach the 0.5901 support and lower. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/04/07/aud-usd-outlook-markets-expect-massive-rba-rate-cut/
2025-04-07 08:26
The USD/JPY forecast shows solid demand for safe-haven assets like the yen. Trump announced new tariffs affecting almost all its trading partners. Market participants are pricing a higher 55% chance of a Fed rate cut in May. The USD/JPY forecast shows solid demand for safe-haven assets like the yen amid growing global economic uncertainty. Meanwhile, the dollar slipped as market participants worried about the impact of Trump’s trade policies on the economy. At the same time, the greenback faced pressure from a rise in Fed rate cut expectations. –Are you interested to learn more about South African forex brokers? Check our detailed guide- The yen held steady at the start of the week as safe-haven demand remained high. Traders started flocking to Japan’s currency last week after Trump announced new tariffs affecting almost all its trading partners. As a result, worries about an escalation in trade wars dampened risk appetite. At the same time, market participants worried about the impact of these tariffs on the US economy. Most major companies depend on exports and imports. Therefore, an increase in prices will directly impact business. Moreover, the labor market might suffer as companies reduce their workers to adjust to the rising costs. Such an outcome would put pressure on the Federal Reserve to lower borrowing costs and spur growth. Currently, market participants are pricing a higher 55% chance of a rate cut in May. USD/JPY key events today Market participants do not expect any key economic releases from Japan or the US. Therefore, they will keep digesting recent US trade policy changes. USD/JPY technical forecast: Bears poised to make new lows below 145.01 On the technical side, the USD/JPY price has paused near the 145.01 support level after a steep decline. Still, the bearish bias remains strong since the price sits far below the 30-SMA with the RSI below 50. -If you are interested in forex day trading then have a read of our guide to getting started- Bears took over from bulls when the price paused at its peaks and the RSI made a bearish divergence. As a result, USD/JPY broke below the SMA. After pulling back to retest the SMA line, the price collapsed in a steep downtrend, breaking below the 146.75 support. The decline has paused at the 145.01 level, allowing the price to retest the recently broken 146.75 level. Given the solid bearish bias, the price might soon break below 145.01 to make a new low. However, if the support holds firm, it might consolidate before breaking below the support. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/04/07/usd-jpy-forecast-yen-soars-as-global-risk-appetite-fades/
2025-04-05 13:57
The USD/CAD weekly forecast shows tariffs threatening growth in the US and Canada. Trump’s new tariffs worsened fears about a US recession. Employment figures from Canada revealed a weak labor market. The USD/CAD weekly forecast shows tariffs threatening growth in the US and Canada, which could keep the pair in consolidation. Ups and downs of USD/CAD The USD/CAD pair had a bearish week but closed well above its lows, showing bears and bulls were almost equally matched. The decline came after Trump’s new tariffs worsened fears about a US recession. The US president put a 10% tariff on all imports, with some countries like China suffering higher levies. As a result, the dollar collapsed. –Are you interested to learn more about South African forex brokers? Check our detailed guide- However, it rebounded after Powell’s speech, which indicated more caution due to uncertainty regarding inflation and growth. Meanwhile, employment figures from Canada revealed a weak labor market, with poor job growth and rising unemployment. On the other hand, the US witnessed a surge in job growth and higher unemployment. Next week’s key events for USD/CAD Next week, traders will watch US reports on consumer and wholesale inflation. At the same time, the FOMC meeting minutes might contain clues on future Fed moves. The last consumer inflation report exceeded estimates, raising fears that the downtrend had paused. Another positive report will confirm the recent surge in inflation expectations and the impact of Trump’s tariffs. Such an outcome would also lower expectations for Fed rate cuts. However, market participants also worry about a likely recession, forcing the Fed to act. Therefore, the reaction to economic data might only be brief. USD/CAD weekly technical forecast: Bears attempt a takeover below the 1.4175 support On the technical side, the USD/CAD price has punctured the 1.4175 support level and made a lower low. However, the price rebounded and closed above the level. Still, the bearish bias remains intact, with the price below the 22-SMA and the RSI under 50. -If you are interested in forex day trading then have a read of our guide to getting started- USD/CAD has primarily remained in a tight consolidation between the 1.4175 support and the 1.4500 resistance levels. In this range, bears and bulls have battled for control. The price once made a false bullish breakout before falling back into the range area. This time, bears have breached the range support. If they are ready to take charge, the price will continue lower next week. This would allow USD/CAD to retest the 1.3802 support level. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/04/05/usd-cad-weekly-forecast-tariffs-cloud-economic-outlook/
2025-04-05 13:42
The AUD/USD weekly forecast shows dark clouds gathering over China’s economy. Trump imposed over 10% tariffs on all imports to the US. Data showed stronger job growth and higher unemployment in the US. The AUD/USD weekly forecast shows dark clouds gathering over China’s economy, putting pressure on the Aussie. Ups and downs of AUD/USD The AUD/USD price had a bearish week, collapsing to fresh lows as Trump’s tariffs dimmed the outlook for China’s economy. Meanwhile, although the dollar initially fell, Powell’s cautious tone supported it towards the end of the week. –Are you interested to learn more about South African forex brokers? Check our detailed guide- Trump surprised markets with an aggressive move, slapping over 10% tariffs on all imports to the US. However, China has suffered the most, with over 60% tariffs on its goods. Consequently, the yuan collapsed, dragging the Aussie lower. Moreover, China promised counter-tariffs of 34% starting next week. The move added caution to Powell’s tone. Elsewhere, the RBA kept rates unchanged, and data showed stronger job growth and higher unemployment in the US. Next week’s key events for AUD/USD Next week, market participants will focus on key reports, including inflation numbers and the FOMC meeting minutes. The minutes will show what went into the decision to keep interest rates unchanged at the last meeting. Meanwhile, the CPI and PPI reports will show the state of inflation in the economy. Recently, inflation expectations have been on the rise amid Trump’s tariffs. An upbeat report will boost these expectations and keep the Fed on a cautious policy path. AUD/USD weekly technical forecast: Bearish momentum surges past the 0.6100 support On the technical side, the AUD/USD price has plunged and is trading far below the 22-SMA. At the same time, the RSI has entered the oversold region, indicating solid bearish momentum. Such a song bearish bias shows that the decline might continue next week. -If you are interested in forex day trading then have a read of our guide to getting started- Previously, the price was trading in a corrective move after the downtrend failed to go below the 0.6100 support level. However, it paused at the 0.6400 resistance level. This allowed bears to return stronger, pushing the price off the SMA. As a result, AUD/USD broke below the 0.6100 support level, making a lower low. This move confirms that bears are ready to continue the previous downtrend. Next week, bulls might return to retest the recently broken support. The downtrend will continue if it holds firm and the price continues lower. On the other hand, bulls might push the price to retest the SMA. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/04/05/aud-usd-weekly-forecast-facing-headwinds-as-china-suffers/
2025-04-04 07:36
The EUR/USD price analysis is positive despite a pullback. Tariffs weaken the US dollar as fear of recession grows. Traders brace for US NFP data ahead. The EUR/USD price analysis indicates a positive trajectory for the third consecutive day, with the pair remaining above the 1.1060 area during the early European session. The global economic outlook, combined with broader dollar weakness, supports the shared currency. Traders are eyeing US NFP data ahead. -Are you looking for the best AI Trading Brokers? Check our detailed guide- The pair pared off yesterday’s gains partially after Germany’s factory orders missed the forecast and fell to 0% against the expected 3.5%. US President Trump announced 10% baseline tariffs on all imports and a 20% levy on goods from the European Union. These tariffs are set to take effect on April 9, fueling fears of a renewed global war. This could result in a weaker dollar and a stronger yen, making the dollar a safe-haven asset. ADB Chief Economist Albert Park warned about the potential magnitude of new tariffs, which could increase the likelihood of a global recession. Park noted that current measures may push the Fed to cut rates soon. “Instead of production shifting to countries like Vietnam or Laos, these tariffs might shrink total East Asian export opportunities,” Park said. China, in particular, faces the heaviest hit with a combined 54% tariff on exports to the US, threatening its 5% growth target for the year. In response, Beijing is expected to focus more on domestic consumption and expand trade ties beyond the United States. Meanwhile, Southeast Asian economies, facing steep tariff barriers, could struggle to absorb trade redirected from China. Park also flagged potential capital outflows from the region as global investors grow wary of rising geopolitical and economic risks. Back in Europe, concerns over slowing growth were also building up. Markets have sharply increased bets on a European Central Bank (ECB) rate cut in April, with money markets pricing in an 80% chance of a 25-basis-point reduction. While the USD’s weakness is currently propping up EUR/USD, the rising likelihood of the ECB easing may cap further gains for the euro. With the ECB and Fed facing mounting pressure to respond to the economic fallout from US trade actions, today’s jobs data could prove pivotal in shaping the next leg for EUR/USD. EUR/USD technical price analysis: Bulls retreat from overbought zone The EUR/USD price retreats from the multi-month top above 1.1100. The 4-hour chart shows two consecutive bearish pin bars, indicating a pause in the bullish momentum. However, the price is well above the pivot point at 1.1000. Breaking below the 1.1000 area may trigger a sharp sell-off, targeting 1.0920 ahead of 1.0880. -Are you looking for the best MT5 Brokers? Check our detailed guide- The RSI value shows a retreat from the overbought area, while the 30-period SMA is too far from the reach of sellers. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/04/04/eur-usd-price-analysis-bulls-take-a-breather-ahead-of-us-nfp/
2025-04-04 06:50
The USD/CAD outlook remains vulnerable after tariffs. US NFP and Canadian jobs data are due today. The Fed Chair’s speech is important to watch for monetary policy clues. The USD/CAD outlook remains deteriorated as the pair heads for a fourth consecutive losing day on Friday. The price is hovering around 1.4100 before hitting 4-month lows. The US dollar has continued to struggle since the imposition of tariffs. Moving ahead, investors are bracing for the release of the US NFP data for March. -Are you looking for the best AI Trading Brokers? Check our detailed guide- Market sentiment remains vulnerable following the announcement of new tariffs, including a baseline tariff of 10% on most imported goods and higher rates for imports from major trade partners such as China, Japan, and the European Union. The protectionist policies have triggered fears of a global recession and cast fresh doubts on the Fed’s rate cuts. The New York session is likely to see high volatility as US NFP data approaches. The economists forecast an increase of 135,000 jobs in March, down from February’s 151,000. The unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 4.1%, while wage growth is expected to slow from the previous 4.0% to 3.8%. In the lead-up to the report, the jobs market data is overall mixed. The US ADP report showed a significant rise of 155,000 jobs from February’s 84,000 jobs. On the other hand, job openings in Feb slipped to 7.56 million, the lowest since Sep 2024. The NFP data can influence the Fed’s next move. The central bank maintained rates at the March meeting but signaled two potential rate cuts this year due to an economic slowdown and uncertainty following Trump’s tariffs. The Fed Chair emphasized caution while being prepared to ease if necessary. From Canada, the risk sentiment is cautious. Canadian PM Carney reiterated the country’s retaliatory tariffs and hinted at imposing auto tariffs against the US. Meanwhile, crude oil prices remain under pressure, limiting gains in the CAD. Traders remain sidelined as jobs data from Both Canada and the US are due with Powell’s speech later today. A disappointing NFP print of under 120k can further ignite bearish sentiment. Contrarily, a strong figure above 150k could help the greenback gain its footing. USD/CAD technical outlook: Bears stall above 1.4000 The 4-hour chart shows some signs of recovery for the pair. The RSI is slowly rising from the oversold zone, forming a pin bar pattern, which reveals a temporary stall in the bearish momentum. However, the 30-period SMA is near 1.4250, which is quite far from current levels. -Are you looking for the best MT5 Brokers? Check our detailed guide- The major level for the sellers is 1.4000, which, if broken, can lead to 1.3925 and 1.3900. On the upside, 1.4100 is the immediate resistance followed by a support-turned resistance at 1.4240 confluence with 30-period SMA. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/04/04/usd-cad-outlook-trade-jitters-nfp-to-retain-selling-pressure/
