2025-02-03 08:36

US President Donald Trump announced the start of tariffs on Canada. Trump’s tariffs will pressure the Bank of Canada to cut interest rates. Canada’s economy contracted by 0.2%. The USD/CAD outlook indicates a looming trade war between the US and Canada after Trump implemented a 25% tariff on Canadian goods. At the same time, Canada’s economy remains weak, putting pressure on the Bank of Canada to lower borrowing costs. Hence, the price tested fresh multi-decade highs near 1.4800 area. –Are you interested to learn more about forex options trading? Check our detailed guide- US President Donald Trump announced the start of tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China on February 4th. The US will impose a 25% tariff on goods from Canada, likely leading to a drop in demand and a trade war between the two countries. Top officials in Canada have emphasized their ability to respond appropriately to any heavy tariffs. Moreover, Canada promised to retaliate after Trump’s announcement, meaning a trade war. The 25% tariff will hurt an already fragile economy, increasing pressure on the Bank of Canada to cut interest rates. Notably, data on Friday revealed that Canada’s economy contracted by 0.2%, a bigger-than-expected decline. The economy has weakened due to high interest rates, forcing policymakers to lower borrowing costs aggressively. Tariffs will only worsen the situation, leading to a collapse in the Canadian dollar. Canada’s currency fell by 1% in January, its fifth month of declines. Trump’s tariffs might extend this decline, pushing USD/CAD higher. USD/CAD key events today US ISM manufacturing PMI USD/CAD technical outlook: Bulls trigger a solid range breakout On the technical side, the USD/CAD price has finally broken out of consolidation. Bulls broke above the 1.4450 range resistance level with a solid candle. Moreover, the price made a huge gap above the 1.4600 psychological level, indicating a sharp increase in bullish momentum. At the same time, the RSI jumped to the overbought level. -If you are interested in knowing about scalping forex brokers, then read our guidelines to get started- The bullish move has paused near the 1.4801 level. However, the price trades far above the 30-SMA and might pause or pull back as the SMA catches up. This will also allow the price to fill the gap before continuing higher. A retreat might pause at the 1.4600 level. If bulls are still strong after a pullback, the price will likely break above the 1.4801 level to make a higher high, confirming a new bullish trend. Bears will only take control if the price breaks below the 30-SMA. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/02/03/usd-cad-outlook-loonie-sinks-to-2003-lows-on-trum-tariff/

2025-02-03 07:01

Trump announced heavy tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China starting Feb 4th. Traders slashed expectations for Fed rate cuts this year. Market participants are looking forward to a BoE rate cut this week. The GBP/USD forecast shows a surging dollar after Trump announced tariffs that will likely cause trade wars. On the other hand, the pound remained subdued ahead of a likely Bank of England rate cut on Thursday. –Are you interested to learn more about forex options trading? Check our detailed guide- On Monday, the dollar rallied against its peers after Trump announced heavy tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China starting Feb 4th. Although markets were anticipating tariffs, this came sooner than expected. Imports from Mexico and Canada will now have a 25% duty, while those from China will have a 10% duty. The announcement caused panic in various markets over the impacts on global trade. Meanwhile, Canada and Mexico have vowed to strike back, meaning trade wars. The impact of tariffs on the global economy will be negative as they will affect trade. However, in the US, the local economy will benefit from increased demand. At the same time, local production will increase, boosting the manufacturing sector. As a result, the economy will remain resilient, boosting the dollar and keeping the Fed on a cautious path. After Trump’s announcement, traders slashed expectations for Fed rate cuts. Meanwhile, market participants are looking forward to a BoE rate cut this week as the UK economy softens. The pound ended January down due to several weak economic reports that pointed to a slowdown. GBP/USD key events today US ISM Manufacturing PMI GBP/USD technical forecast: Price gap suggests solid bearish momentum On the technical side, the GBP/USD price has gapped below the 1.2351 support level, indicating strong bearish sentiment. At the same time, the RSI trades near the oversold region, suggesting solid bearish momentum. -If you are interested in knowing about scalping forex brokers, then read our guidelines to get started- The previous uptrend paused when bulls reached the 1.2501 resistance. Bears emerged to push the price below the 30-SMA before the week ended. Prices opened this week well below last week’s close, creating a gap. This is a sign that there was a bearish catalyst over the weekend. However, the price might have to fill this gap before it continues lower. Therefore, it might rebound to retest the 30-SMA resistance. After filling the gap, the price might break above the SMA to show a bullish shift in sentiment. However, if the SMA holds firm, bears will aim for the 1.2200 support level. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/02/03/gbp-usd-forecast-bears-dominate-as-trade-war-triggers/

2025-02-01 19:52

The Fed kept rates unchanged on Wednesday. Trump emphasized his plans to impose tariffs on Canada and Mexico. Australia’s inflation came in softer than expected. The AUD/USD weekly forecast shows downside potential amid increasing RBA rate cut bets and a stronger greenback. Ups and downs of AUD/USD The AUD/USD price had a bearish week amid hawkish Fed signals and increased RBA rate cut expectations. The Fed kept rates unchanged on Wednesday and failed to give any indication of near-term rate cuts. As a result, the dollar strengthened. Moreover, Trump emphasized his plans to impose tariffs on Canada and Mexico, boosting the greenback. Meanwhile, inflation figures in Australia revealed a smaller-than-expected 0.2% increase, boosting bets for a Feb RBA rate cut, weighing on the Aussie. Next week’s key events for AUD/USD Next week, the US will release data on manufacturing business activity and monthly employment. The manufacturing PMI will show the health of the economy, shaping the outlook for US monetary policy. An unexpected increase in business activity will show resilience, while the opposite will show weakness. Meanwhile, the US nonfarm payrolls will show job growth in January. The last report revealed an unexpected increase of 256,000 jobs, indicating a robust labor market. Another such report will boost the dollar as it will slash Fed rate cut expectations. On the other hand, if employment eases, policymakers might gain more confidence to lower borrowing costs. AUD/USD weekly technical forecast: Price pauses in the 0.6151- 0.6300 range On the technical side, the AUD/USD price has entered a period of consolidation between the 0.6151 support and the 0.6300 resistance. The range follows a strong downtrend that paused near the 0.6151 support level. Here, bears showed weakness as the RSI made a slight bullish divergence. This consolidation might be a pause in the downtrend or before a reversal. -If you are interested in knowing about scalping forex brokers, then read our guidelines to get started- If it is the first case, bears will challenge the range support next week. A break below this level will allow AUD/USD to make a lower low, continuing the downtrend. On the other hand, if it is a looming reversal, the price will break above the range resistance to revisit the 0.6500 key level. Bulls will confirm a new bullish trend when the price starts making higher highs and lows. However, before the price resumes a trend, it might remain in consolidation for a while. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/02/01/aud-usd-weekly-forecast-rba-rate-cut-speculation-grows/

2025-02-01 19:49

The Fed held rates during its policy meeting. Trump renewed his threats to impose tariffs on Mexico and Canada. The BoE will likely cut interest rates next week. The GBP/USD weekly forecast shows a looming Bank of England rate cut that will likely push the pound lower. Ups and downs of GBP/USD The GBP/USD pair had a slightly bearish week as the dollar strengthened and the pound fell ahead of a BoE rate cut. The greenback gained after the Fed held rates during its policy meeting and signaled no rush to lower borrowing costs. At the same time, Trump renewed his threats to impose tariffs on Mexico and Canada, boosting the US currency. Meanwhile, market participants looked forward to next week’s BoE policy meeting. The central bank will likely cut interest rates, weighing on the pound. Next week’s key events for GBP/USD Next week, market participants will focus on manufacturing business activity data from the US and the UK. Traders will also watch the Bank of England policy meeting on Thursday. Finally, the US will release its crucial monthly employment report. Economists expect the Bank of England to lower borrowing costs by 25-bps on Thursday. At the same time, markets will wait to see whether policymakers project more rate cuts for this year. The UK economy has slowed down significantly, piling pressure on the central bank to cut interest rates. Meanwhile, the US nonfarm payrolls report will show whether the labor market remains resilient. An upbeat report will convince the Fed to keep rates elevated. On the other hand, softness will increase rate cut expectations, weighing on the dollar. GBP/USD weekly technical forecast: Bulls trigger a channel breakout On the technical side, the GBP/USD price has broken out of its bearish channel with a solid bullish candle. At the same time, the price broke above the 22-SMA, indicating a bullish shift in sentiment. Meanwhile, the RSI trades slightly below 50, showing that bearish momentum remains. -If you are interested in knowing about scalping forex brokers, then read our guidelines to get started- The breakout comes after bears met a solid hurdle at the 1.2203 support level. Initially, the price had maintained a strong downtrend. However, the price kept puncturing the SMA resistance, showing bulls were not so weak. Moreover, the RSI failed to dip into the oversold region during the decline, showing bears were holding back. Bulls eventually overpowered bears at the 1.2203 support. The price will break above 1.2550 next week if they remain in the lead. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/02/01/gbp-usd-weekly-forecast-boe-rate-cut-to-weigh-on-pound/

2025-01-31 07:27

Trump emphasized his plans to impose tariffs on Canada and Mexico. The US economy grew by 2.3%, compared to estimates of 2.7%. The yen is set to end the week with an over 1.5% gain. The USD/JPY price analysis indicates an increasing likelihood of a 25% US tariff on goods from Mexico and Canada, supporting the dollar. Meanwhile, the yen eased at the end of a strong week as BoJ remarks weighed. -Are you looking for automated trading? Check our detailed guide- The dollar rebounded Thursday as US President Donald Trump emphasized his plans to impose tariffs on Canada and Mexico. Market participants have remained cautious, anticipating the proposed Trump tariffs. If they come on February 1 as promised, it will open the door for more tariffs, boosting the US currency. These tariffs will discourage trade between these countries and likely cause tensions. However, production and demand for US goods will increase, boosting the economy. Meanwhile, traders also focused on US data, which showed a smaller-than-expected economic expansion. According to the report, the economy grew by 2.3%, compared to estimates of 2.7%. However, the report also revealed a significant increase in consumer spending. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan chief said on Friday that the central bank must keep rates low to allow underlying inflation to increase. His remarks led to a retreat in the yen. However, Japan’s currency is set to end the week with an over 1.5% gain. The yen has soared since the BoJ increased borrowing costs last Friday. USD/JPY key events today Core PCE Price Index m/m Employment Cost Index q/q USD/JPY technical price analysis: Bulls challenge the 30-SMA resistance On the technical side, the USD/JPY price has rebounded after failing to break below the 154.01 support level. However, the price still trades below the 30-SMA, showing bears are in the lead. Additionally, the RSI favors bearish momentum below 50. -Are you looking for forex robots? Check our detailed guide- Currently, the price is retesting the 30-SMA resistance. If it holds firm, USD/JPY will return to the 154.01 support. A break below this level will confirm a continuation of the downtrend. On the other hand, if bullish momentum surges past the 30-SMA, the price will likely retest the 156.51 resistance level. Moreover, the break would signal a shift in sentiment to bullish. Meanwhile, to confirm a new bullish trend, the price would have to break past the 156.51 resistance and start making higher highs and lows. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/01/31/usd-jpy-price-analysis-dollar-rebounds-as-us-tariffs-loom/

2025-01-31 07:12

The European Central Bank lowered borrowing costs by 25-bps as expected. The greenback rebounded on Thursday after Trump repeated his tariff plans. The US economy expanded by 2.3%, missing forecasts of 2.7%. The EUR/USD outlook suggests a bleak future for the euro amid a rate cut and dovish European Central Bank’s policy path. On the other hand, the dollar rebounded after Trump emphasized his plans to impose tariffs on Canada and Mexico. -Are you looking for automated trading? Check our detailed guide- On Thursday, the European Central Bank lowered borrowing costs by 25-bps as expected. Moreover, policymakers maintained a dovish tone, opening the door for more rate cuts. The central bank has supported lower rates due to a slowdown in the Eurozone economy. At the same time, inflation has dropped significantly, allowing policymakers to focus on growth. Meanwhile, the greenback rebounded on Thursday after Trump repeated his plans to impose a 25% duty on goods imported from Canada and Mexico. If all goes as planned, this tariff will be implemented on Saturday. Such an outcome would increase demand for locally produced goods in the US as they will be cheaper. This, in turn, will boost the economy and increase inflation. Moreover, the Fed will be forced to keep interest rates at restrictive levels to contain inflation. However, the tariffs might also negatively impact the US economy if they lead to trade wars. Elsewhere, data on Thursday revealed that the US economy expanded by 2.3%, missing forecasts of a 2.7% expansion. However, the report also showed that inflation rose by 2.5%. EUR/USD key events today German Prelim CPI m/m US core PCE price index m/m EUR/USD technical outlook: Bears pause below the 1.0400 On the technical side, the EUR/USD price has broken below the 1.0400 support level after retesting the 30-SMA as resistance. The bearish bias is strong because the price has moved far below the 30-SMA. At the same time, the RSI trades below 50, suggesting solid bearish momentum. -Are you looking for forex robots? Check our detailed guide- This move has followed a channel breakout. However, bears and bulls are still struggling for control between the 30-SMA and the 1.0400 support level. Moreover, price action after the break below 1.0400 shows indecision. If bears are ready to take charge, the price will drop to the 1.0301 support. On the other hand, if they are not strong enough, bulls might emerge to retest the 30-SMA. A break above the SMA would allow EUR/USD to challenge the 1.0500 key resistance level. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/01/31/eur-usd-outlook-euro-suffers-under-a-dovish-ecb/