2025-01-20 11:19

Inflation data solidified bets for at least two Fed rate cuts this year. Trump’s policy proposals have ignited bets of robust demand. Trump has threatened to impose a 25% tariff on goods imported from Canada. The USD/CAD outlook suggests growing bullish sentiment as the Canadian dollar weakens ahead of Trump’s likely import tariffs. Meanwhile, the dollar regained momentum as market participants eagerly awaited Trump’s inauguration speech. -Are you interested in learning about forex tips? Click here for details- The Canadian dollar has dropped recently as markets have shifted their focus from economic data to the new US administration. Last week, inflation data solidified bets for at least two Fed rate cuts this year. However, it only kept the dollar down for some time. With Trump as the new president, the US economy is set to grow faster. His policy proposals have ignited bets of robust demand and higher inflation. As a result, the outlook for US monetary policy has shifted to a more gradual one, supporting the dollar. On the other hand, the Canadian dollar is one of the currencies that will suffer the most if Trump implements his policy proposals. The incoming president has threatened to impose a 25% tariff on goods imported from Canada. If he implements this, it will significantly hurt Canada’s economy, pushing the Bank of Canada to lower borrowing costs further. Such an outcome would weaken the Canadian dollar. On the other hand, if he is not as aggressive as previously thought, the dollar might pull back, relieving the loonie. USD/CAD key events today Market participants are only looking forward to Trump’s inauguration speech since neither the US nor Canada will release key reports. USD/CAD technical outlook: Bullish range breakout On the technical side, the USD/CAD price has made a milestone move, breaking out of its range. For a long time, the price was trapped in a sideways move between the 1.4300 support and the 1.4450 resistance. This consolidation came after a solid bullish trend, indicating a pause as bulls regained momentum. -Are you interested in learning about the forex basics? Click here for details- The price eventually broke above the 1.4450 resistance level and pulled back to retest it. The previous bullish trend will continue if the price bounces off this level to make a higher high. It will likely rise past the 1.4501 key level. However, if the price fails to continue higher, it might fall back into the consolidation area. Such an outcome would signal a false breakout, leading to a retest of the range support level. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/01/20/usd-cad-outlook-looming-trump-tariffs-weighs-on-cad/

2025-01-20 10:22

Trump’s presidency might be bullish for the dollar. Trump’s tariffs will increase demand for locally produced goods. Traders expect the Bank of Japan to hike rates this week. The USD/JPY forecast shows indecision ahead of Trump’s inauguration speech. At the same time, market participants are gearing up for the Bank of Japan policy meeting. However, trading might remain thin due to the Martin Luther King Jr. Day Holiday in the US. -Are you interested in learning about forex tips? Click here for details- USD/JPY fluctuated on Monday, with the greenback steady amid anticipation of Trump’s policies. Meanwhile, the yen was also steady as market participants priced a high likelihood of a Bank of Japan rate hike on Friday. Analysts have predicted that Trump’s presidency will be bullish for the dollar since his policy proposals might boost economic growth. Traders will wait to see whether he will implement his proposals to cut taxes and impose tariffs on imported goods. Tax cuts will favor the economy by improving the business environment. Meanwhile, tariffs will increase demand for locally produced goods. At the same time, experts believe this will lead to a spike in inflation that would force the Fed to keep interest rates at restrictive levels. On the other hand, traders expect the Bank of Japan to hike rates this week to support a weak yen. At the same time, since Trump’s policies will likely support the dollar, a BoJ rate hike will keep the yen from dropping too much. USD/JPY key events today Market participants do not expect any key reports from the US or Japan. Consequently, market participants will focus on Trump’s inauguration. USD/JPY technical forecast: Bulls pause at 30-SMA hurdle On the technical side, the USD/JPY price has recovered after finding support at the 155.01 key level. However, the bullish move has paused after meeting the 30-SMA resistance line. Moreover, the bearish bias remains intact since the price trades below the 30-SMA, with the RSI below 50. -Are you interested in learning about the forex basics? Click here for details- Therefore, bears might soon overpower bulls to revisit the 155.01 support level. A break below this support will confirm a continuation of the downtrend as it would form a lower low. Moreover, it would clear the path for USD/JPY to retest the 153.25 support level. On the other hand, a break above the SMA and the 157.01 resistance level would indicate a bullish shift in sentiment. However, the price would have to start making higher highs and lows to confirm a bullish trend. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/01/20/usd-jpy-forecast-investors-on-edge-ahead-of-trumps-speech/

2025-01-18 17:51

US core inflation missed forecasts in December. US retail sales increased by a smaller-than-expected figure. Bank of Japan policymakers signaled a willingness to hike interest rates. The USD/JPY weekly forecast indicates growing anticipation for a Bank of Japan rate hike that is supporting the yen. Ups and downs of USD/JPY The USD/JPY pair ended the week lower as the dollar eased on downbeat data, and the yen gained due to a surge in BoJ rate hike expectations. The greenback and Treasury yields eased after data revealed that US core inflation missed forecasts in December. The report raised expectations for Fed rate cuts in 2025. Additionally, retail sales increased by a smaller-than-expected figure, pointing to weak consumer spending. -Are you interested in learning about forex tips? Click here for details- Meanwhile, Bank of Japan policymakers signaled a willingness to hike interest rates due to the improving economy and weak yen. Consequently, rate hike bets increased, boosting the yen. Next week’s key events for USD/JPY Next week, market participants will watch the Bank of Japan policy meeting on Friday. The yen has faced significant downward pressure due to the rising dollar and a less dovish outlook for Fed policy. At the same time, the BoJ has remained cautious about rate hikes, citing uncertainty about Trump’s policies. However, recent yen weakness has increased pressure on the central bank to hike rates. As a result, policymakers have shifted their tone to a more hawkish one, boosting rate hike expectations. If policymakers vote to hike rates on Friday, the yen will rally. USD/JPY weekly technical forecast: Trendline support retested On the technical side, the USD/JPY price has paused at its support trendline after breaking below the 22-SMA. The SMA break indicates a bearish shift in sentiment. However, on a larger scale, the price trades in a bullish trend with a clear support trendline. -Are you interested in learning about the forex basics? Click here for details- Therefore, although bears are in the lead in the short term, the price is making higher highs and lows. Bulls might resurface next week to push the price off the support. However, they must make a higher high to confirm a continuation of the bullish trend. However, while the price has made higher highs, the RSI has stalled, failing to enter the overbought region. This could be because the uptrend is a corrective after a strong trend. If this happens, the price will likely break below the trendline to make another impulsive leg. Therefore, it would breach the 150.05 support level. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/01/18/usd-jpy-weekly-forecast-boj-hike-expectations-lift-yen/

2025-01-18 17:49

Market participants are eagerly awaiting Trump’s inauguration. Trump has proposed a heavy tariff on goods imported from Canada. US inflation data this week revealed soft underlying price pressures. The USD/CAD weekly forecast points north as the Canadian dollar drops ahead of Trump’s inauguration. Ups and downs of USD/CAD The USD/CAD pair had a bullish week as the Canadian dollar weakened amid Trump tariff fears. Meanwhile, the dollar gained despite downbeat data due to the weak loonie. -Are you interested in learning about forex tips? Click here for details- Market participants were eagerly awaiting Trump’s inauguration and his policy changes. Notably, Trump has proposed a heavy tariff on goods imported from Canada, which will likely hurt the local economy. Therefore, the Bank of Canada would be under immense pressure to cut interest rates. Meanwhile, inflation data this week revealed soft underlying price pressures, supporting bets for Fed rate cuts. At the same time, US sales came in below estimates, indicating easing consumer spending. Next week’s key events for USD/CAD Next week, traders will focus on economic reports from Canada, including inflation and retail sales. The inflation report will show the state of price pressures in the country. Recent figures have shown a slowdown that has allowed the Bank of Canada to implement several rate cuts. A downbeat report would increase bets for rate cuts in 2025, weighing on the Canadian dollar. The Bank of Canada in late 2024 shifted from focusing on inflation to growth. The economy was gradually declining amid high interest rates. The retail sales report will show the state of consumer spending, further shaping the outlook for BoC rate cuts. USD/CAD weekly technical forecast: Bullish momentum targeting 1.4603 On the technical side, the USD/CAD price is bouncing higher after finding support at the 1.4300 key psychological level. The price trades above the 22-SMA, and the RSI is in bullish territory. Moreover, the price has made a series of higher highs and lows, suggesting a solid bullish trend. -Are you interested in learning about the forex basics? Click here for details- However, after breaking above the 1.4300 key level, the price traded in a tight consolidation as the SMA caught up. Meanwhile, the RSI made lower highs, indicating fading bullish momentum, which allowed bears to puncture the SMA line. However, bulls returned with renewed momentum and pushed the price back above the SMA. If bullish momentum remains strong in the coming week, the price will likely retest the 1.4603 key level. This will mean a higher high and a continuation of the bullish trend. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/01/18/usd-cad-weekly-forecast-looming-trump-tariffs-boost-dollar/

2025-01-17 10:42

Retail sales in the UK unexpectedly fell in December. Data on Thursday showed a smaller-than-expected increase in retail sales. All focus is on Trump’s inauguration next week. The GBP/USD price analysis shows that the UK’s economic weakness has put the pound in a vulnerable position against the dollar. At the same time, market participants are looking forward to Trump’s inauguration next week, which will shape the outlook for the US economy. -Are you looking for tips for forex trading? Check out the details- Data on Friday showed that retail sales in the UK unexpectedly fell in December. Sales dropped by 0.3% when economists had expected a 0.4% increase. The decline indicated weak consumer spending during the month, likely putting more pressure on the Bank of England to lower borrowing costs. The soft sales figures came a day after data showed a smaller-than-expected expansion in the UK economy. Recent economic reports have dimmed hopes of a stronger economy under the new administration. Moreover, it has increased BoE rate cut expectations, weighing on the pound. Meanwhile, the dollar eased slightly after Thursday data showed a smaller-than-expected retail sales increase. Sales increased by 0.4% on a monthly basis compared to forecasts of a 0.6% increase. However, all focus is on Trump’s inauguration next week. Experts believe it will mark a big shift leading to a period of robust economic growth and higher inflation. Traders will wait to see whether he will implement his policy proposals. GBP/USD key events today Neither the US nor the UK will release any significant reports. Therefore, traders will keep absorbing the UK retail sales report. GBP/USD technical price analysis: Bears set sights on the 1.2102 support level On the technical side, the GBP/USD price is on the verge of breaking below the 30-SMA after a recent rebound to the 1.2250 resistance level. Despite the break above the SMA, the bearish bias remains strong. Moreover, the RSI trades below 50, suggesting strong bearish momentum. -Are you looking for crypto exchanges? Check our detailed guide- Additionally, the price trades in a bearish channel and might bounce from the channel resistance to retest the channel support. Therefore, GBP/USD might soon break below the 1.2102 support level to continue the downtrend. However, bulls might break above the channel resistance if the SMA holds firm. Such an outcome would suggest a bullish shift in sentiment, allowing the price to reach the 1.2400 resistance level. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/01/17/gbp-usd-price-analysis-risk-to-revisit-1-21-amid-weak-economy/

2025-01-17 09:30

Market participants eagerly await Trump’s inauguration. Trump has proposed import tariffs of at least 10% on all imported goods. Data on Thursday revealed a smaller-than-expected increase in US retail sales. The EUR/USD outlook suggests further weakness for the euro amid diverging economic outlooks between the Eurozone and the US. At the same time, the ECB is set to implement more rate cuts this year than the Fed to stem any further weakness in the Eurozone economy. -Are you looking for tips for forex trading? Check out the details- Market participants eagerly await Trump’s inauguration next week, which will mark a significant shift in the US. Trump has proposed several policy changes, including tax cuts and import tariffs, which experts believe will boost the US economy and increase consumer price pressures. Meanwhile, an import tariff of at least 10% on all imported goods will hurt its trading partners, like the Eurozone. Therefore, analysts are predicting weak economic growth in the bloc in 2025. Trump will cause a significant shift in the outlook for economic growth and monetary policy in these two regions. The Fed will take a gradual approach, with traders pricing only two rate cuts this year. Meanwhile, a Reuters poll earlier in the week revealed that the ECB might implement four rate cuts before July this year. The aggressive approach will likely reduce the impact of tariffs on the economy. Elsewhere, data on Thursday revealed a smaller-than-expected increase in US retail sales. However, it was not enough to significantly change the outlook for Fed rate cuts. EUR/USD key events today Market participants do not expect high-impact reports from the Eurozone or the US. Consequently, the price might end the week quietly. EUR/USD technical outlook: Bulls emerge after the recent swing high On the technical side, the EUR/USD price has paused near the 30-SMA support after meeting the 1.0350 resistance level. The bias is bullish since the price trades above the SMA with the RSI slightly above 50, in bullish territory. -Are you looking for crypto exchanges? Check our detailed guide- However, when bulls met the 1.0350 resistance, a strong rejection led to a bearish engulfing candle. This was a sign that bears were ready to take back control. Still, the price must break below the 30-SMA and the 1.0200 support level to confirm this. Such an outcome would signal a continuation of the downtrend. On the other hand, if EUR/USD fails to break below the 30-SMA, it might retest the 1.0350 resistance, aiming to make a higher high. A break above this resistance would allow bulls to reach the 1.0450 level. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/01/17/eur-usd-outlook-diverging-economies-pressure-the-euro/