2025-01-13 11:29

Japan’s wage gains have shown sustainable growth prospects. US nonfarm payrolls rose by 256,000, beating estimates of 164,000. Traders expect only 27-bps of Fed rate cuts this year. The USD/JPY outlook shows increasing price pressures in Japan that might convince BoJ policymakers to hike rates soon. As a result, the yen gained despite a strong dollar. The greenback soared on Friday after an upbeat jobs report lowered expectations for Fed rate cuts. -Are you looking for tips for forex trading? Check out the details- The yen strengthened on Monday as market participants increased bets for a near-term Bank of Japan rate hike. Policymakers have been monitoring Japan’s wage gains, showing sustainable growth prospects. At the same time, the weak yen has hiked import costs, increasing inflationary pressure. Consequently, conditions for a rate hike are aligning, supporting the yen. High interest rates in Japan will shrink the gap in rates with the US. Furthermore, top Japanese officials closely monitor the yen, which has significantly weakened in recent weeks. More declines might push officials to act and support the currency. On the other hand, the greenback soared on Friday after data revealed an unexpected jump in US jobs in December. Nonfarm payrolls rose by 256,000, beating estimates of 164,000. Additionally, the unemployment rate eased to 4.1%, below forecasts of 4.2%. As a result, traders expect only 27-bps of Fed rate cuts this year. The next major report will show the state of inflation in the US. Another upbeat report could wipe out expectations for rate cuts this year. USD/JPY key events today Traders do not expect any key reports from the US or Japan. Therefore, the pair might keep reacting to recent developments. USD/JPY technical outlook: Bearish RSI divergence On the technical side, the USD/JPY price is dropping after failing to break above the 158.02 resistance level. The price trades below the 30-SMA, showing bears are in the lead. Moreover, the RSI trades below 50, suggesting solid bearish momentum. -Are you looking for crypto exchanges? Check our detailed guide- Bulls have made several attempts to continue the previous uptrend but have failed. They can no longer make solid swings above the 30-SMA. At the same time, the RSI has made a bearish divergence, indicating fading momentum. Therefore, there is a high chance bears will trigger a trend reversal. However, the price must break below the 156.03 support level and start making lower highs and lows. If this happens, USD/JPY will drop to retest the 153.02 support level. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/01/13/usd-jpy-outlook-boj-could-hike-rates-amid-rising-inflation/

2025-01-13 09:51

US job growth jumped in December, with the economy adding 256,000 jobs. The US unemployment rate eased to 4.1%. Canada’s economy added 90,900 jobs compared to forecasts of 24,900. The USD/CAD forecast shows a slightly bullish bias as traders balance the upbeat employment reports from Canada and the US. The pair rose on Friday as US job growth beat estimates. However, a surge in Canada’s employment put a lid on further gains. -Are you looking for tips for forex trading? Check out the details- Data on Friday revealed that US job growth jumped in December, with the economy adding 256,000 jobs. This number was much more significant than the forecast of 164,000. At the same time, the unemployment rate eased to 4.1%, compared to estimates of 4.2%. The report indicated a resilient labor market, leading to a decline in Fed rate cut expectations. Given the robust economy, markets are gradually pricing out rate cuts this year. At the same time, Trump’s presidency might further boost demand. Consequently, the dollar soared against most of its peers. However, the Canadian dollar was an outlier since data from Canada also showed a resilient labor market. According to figures, the economy added 90,900 jobs compared to forecasts of 24,900. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate fell to 6.7%, missing estimates of 6.9%. The upbeat figures have eased pressure on the Bank of Canada to lower rates, boosting the loonie. USD/CAD key events today Market participants do not expect any high-impact reports today. Therefore, they will keep digesting Friday’s employment figures. USD/CAD technical forecast: Bulls looking at 1.4450 resistance On the technical side, the USD/CAD price is in a holding pattern between the 1.4300 support and the 1.4450 resistance level. The price trades above the 30-SMA within the range, showing bulls are in the lead. At the same time, the RSI trades above 50 in bullish territory. Therefore, there is a high chance USD/CAD will make another attempt at the range resistance. -Are you looking for crypto exchanges? Check our detailed guide- Before the price started consolidating, it was in a bullish trend, trading above the 30-SMA. However, bulls failed to breach the 1.4450 resistance level, and momentum faded. As a result, the price formed a corrective move. If this allowed bulls to recover, USD/CAD will soon breach the range resistance to continue the uptrend. On the other hand, if bears become stronger, the trend might reverse to the downside. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/01/13/usd-cad-forecast-dollar-reigns-amid-nfp-ripple-effects/

2025-01-11 17:34

The US economy added a bigger-than-expected number of jobs in December. US unemployment fell, indicating a resilient labor market. Core inflation in Australia eased, boosting RBA rate cut bets. The AUD/USD weekly forecast points south amid increasing RBA rate cut bets and lower expectations for Fed rate cuts. Ups and downs of AUD/USD This week, the Aussie collapsed as the dollar soared on upbeat data and RBA rate cut bets jumped. The US economy showed continued resilience, with reports on service sector business activity, jobs and unemployment claims beating forecasts. Moreover, the economy added a bigger-than-expected number of jobs in December, with the unemployment rate dropping. As a result, Fed rate cut bets fell. -Are you looking for tips for forex trading? Check out the details- On the other hand, Australia’s inflation figures last week revealed a slowdown in underlying price pressures. Consequently, rate cut bets for a Feb RBA rate cut increased, weakening the Aussie. Next week’s key events for AUD/USD Next week, traders will scrutinize inflation and retail sales figures from the US. Meanwhile, Australia will release its monthly employment figures. The Fed has forecasted only two rate cuts this year due to a resilient economy. At the same time, inflation has stalled its decline, leading to policymakers losing confidence. If the US releases another upbeat report, markets might lower expectations to just one rate cut this year. On the other hand, a downbeat report will increase rate-cut bets, weighing on the dollar. Meanwhile, market participants have increased bets for an RBA rate cut in February. A downbeat employment report will increase these bets, hurting the Aussie. On the other hand, if employment jumps, rate-cut bets will fall. AUD/USD weekly technical forecast: Bears breach 1.272 Fib extension On the technical side, the AUD/USD price has breached a significant support comprising the 0.6200 support and the 1.272 Fib extension level. The price has maintained a solid downtrend, trading below the 22-SMA resistance. Meanwhile, the RSI has maintained its position in bearish territory. -Are you looking for crypto exchanges? Check our detailed guide- Since the bearish bias is strong, there is a high chance AUD/USD will target the 1.618 Fib extension level next week. The downtrend will continue if the price stays below the 22-SMA and the RSI below 50. On the other hand, if the price fails to hold its position below the 0.6200 level, it might bounce back to retest the SMA or the 0.6400 key level as resistance. A break above would signal a bullish reversal. On the other hand, if bears remain in the lead, the price will bounce lower to continue the downtrend. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/01/11/aud-usd-weekly-forecast-rba-fed-divergence-boosts-sell-off/

2025-01-11 17:30

Business activity in the US services sector improved more than expected. The US economy added 256,000 jobs in December. US unemployment dropped to 4.1%, below estimates of 4.2%. The GBP/USD weekly forecast suggests further weakness as the US dollar picks momentum after robust jobs data. Ups and downs of GBP/USD The GBP/USD pair had a bearish week as the dollar rallied amid upbeat US economic data. Figures revealed that business activity in the services sector improved more than expected. Meanwhile, employment numbers were mostly better than expected. -Are you looking for tips for forex trading? Check out the details- Notably, the nonfarm payrolls report on Friday showed an unexpected surge in job growth and a drop in the unemployment rate. The US economy added 256,000 jobs in December, compared to forecasts of 164,000. Meanwhile, unemployment dropped to 4.1%, below estimates of 4.2%. Consequently, Fed rate cut bets plunged, boosting the dollar. Next week’s key events for GBP/USD Next week, market participants will focus on inflation and retail sales data from the US and the UK. At the same time, the UK will release figures on manufacturing production and GDP. The US wholesale and consumer inflation numbers will shape the outlook for future Fed rate cuts. Recent reports have shown that inflation has paused its decline to the 2% target. Another upbeat report will lower expectations for rate cuts, boosting the greenback. Similarly, UK inflation and retail sales will guide the outlook for Bank of England rate cuts. Upbeat reports will lower bets for rate cuts, while downbeat numbers will further hurt the pound. GBP/USD weekly technical forecast: Bears eye new lows below 1.2250 On the technical side, the GBP/USD price has punctured the 1.2250 support level to make a new swing low in the downtrend. The price trades well below the 22-SMA, showing bears are holding the reigns. Meanwhile, the RSI has entered the oversold region, suggesting solid bearish momentum. -Are you looking for automated trading? Check our detailed guide- GBP/USD has maintained a solid downtrend since the price broke below the 22-SMA. In all this time, the RSI has stayed in bearish territory but has failed to dip into the oversold region. This shows that bears still have more room to push the prices lower. Therefore, the break below the 1.2250 support will allow the price to reach lower support levels. Moreover, the trend will only reverse if the RSI shows fading momentum and the price breaks above the 22-SMA. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/01/11/gbp-usd-weekly-forecast-surprised-us-nfp-threatens-pound/

2025-01-10 10:43

The greenback is heading for a sixth week of gains. Market participants fear a 25% tariff on Canadian goods. Traders are cautious ahead of employment figures from Canada and the US. The USD/CAD price analysis indicates increased tariff uncertainty, which has given the dollar an edge over its peers, such as the Canadian dollar. At the same time, market participants remain cautious ahead of the pivotal US nonfarm payrolls report. The numbers will give clues on future Fed moves. The greenback was heading for a sixth week of gains as US Treasury yields remained elevated due to Trump’s tariff proposals. Recent reports have shown that Trump remains aggressive about his tariffs. Therefore, market participants fear a 25% tariff on Canadian goods that could hurt the local economy. Canada exports most of its goods to the US. An initial report that Trump would only focus on critical sectors had given the loonie some relief. However, when the president-elect denied such plans, the currency gave up its gains. Traders are also cautious about the upcoming employment figures from Canada and the US. According to economists, Canada’s economy might add 25,000 jobs in December, a slowdown from the previous month’s over 50,500 increase. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate might increase from 6.8% to 6.9%. On the other hand, job growth in the US might also slow, with the economy adding 160,000 jobs in December. However, unemployment will likely hold at 4.2%. These reports will guide the BoC and the Fed on future policy moves. USD/CAD key events today Canada Employment Change Canada Unemployment Rate US Average Hourly Earnings m/m US Non-Farm Employment Change US Unemployment Rate USD/CAD technical price analysis: Bulls gear up for a 1.4450 retest On the technical side, the USD/CAD price trades above the 30-SMA with the RSI in bullish territory. However, the price has chopped through the SMA for a while, consolidating between the 1.4450 resistance and the 1.4300 support. Previously, USD/CAD was trading in a bullish trend above the 30-SMA. Therefore, there is a chance the consolidation is a pause as bulls slowly regain momentum. If this happens, the price will soon break above the 1.4450 resistance to continue the uptrend. However, the price will likely remain in consolidation if the resistance holds firm. The trend will only reverse if bears gain enough momentum to break below the 1.4300 support and make a lower low. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/01/10/usd-cad-price-analysis-dollar-shines-amid-tariff-uncertainty/

2025-01-10 09:19

Sterling wallowed near recent lows amid turmoil in the UK debt market. Markets are only pricing 40-bps of Fed rate cuts this year. Economists expect US jobs to increase by 160,000 in December. The GBP/USD outlook is extremely bearish, pushing the pound to a 14-month low as the UK bonds market slumps. On the other hand, the dollar was heading for a sixth week of gains due to a rally in US Treasury yields and anticipation of another upbeat US employment report. Sterling wallowed near recent lows amid turmoil in the UK debt market. The panic comes at a time when investors are worried about the UK economy due to the prospects of increased government spending and higher taxes. Data in the latter part of 2024 revealed a slowdown in the UK economy that increased bets for BoE rate cuts. Initially, economists had expected better performance under the new government. However, it has yet to materialize. As a result, traders are worried about the future, especially with Trump as the new US president. Meanwhile, the greenback continued its recent rally as Treasury yields soared. Recent economic data has shown resilience in the US economy, which has led to a drop in Fed rate cut expectations. Markets are now only pricing 40-bps of cuts this year, giving the dollar an edge over its peers. The next major report is the nonfarm payrolls. Economists expect jobs to increase by 160,000 in December, a slowdown from the previous month. On the other hand, the unemployment rate might hold steady at 4.2%. GBP/USD key events today US average hourly earnings m/m US nonfarm employment change US unemployment rate GBP/USD technical outlook: Bears stall at 1.2250 support On the technical side, the GBP/USD price has paused near the 1.2250 support level. Bears have made a new low, confirming a continuation of the downtrend. However, there are signs that this downtrend might not continue for too long. First, bulls have shown attempts to reverse the trend by breaching the 30-SMA resistance. Although bears eventually resumed the downtrend, it is a sign that bulls are getting stronger. Second, the RSI has made a slight bullish divergence. The price has made a lower low, but the indicator has made a higher, signaling fading bearish momentum. The Bulls may retest the 30-SMA and the 1.2400 key level if the divergence plays out. A break above would confirm a shift in sentiment. Otherwise, the downtrend will continue. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/01/10/gbp-usd-outlook-tests14-month-low-as-uk-bonds-slump/