2024-05-01 09:39

There was a bigger-than-expected increase in US employment cost growth. Markets have scaled back Fed rate cut expectations to only one cut in 2024. The policy outlooks of the Fed and the RBA are pretty similar. The AUD/USD forecast is leaning bearish as the US dollar strengthens following encouraging employment figures. Additionally, investor sentiment is tilting towards a hawkish stance from the FOMC, further bolstering the greenback and putting pressure on the Australian dollar. –Are you interested to learn more about crypto signals? Check our detailed guide- The US Labor Department reported a bigger-than-expected increase in employment cost growth. This report was another pointer to high inflation in the country. Consequently, there was a decline in Fed rate cut expectations. As investors await more employment figures from the US, there is a chance that they will continue beating forecasts. This, in turn, will keep the Fed hesitant to start cutting interest rates. Currently, markets have scaled back rate cut expectations to only one cut in 2024. However, after the FOMC meeting, this might change. If Powell is hawkish and highlights the still-high inflation, the dollar might make new highs, further weighing on the Aussie. However, the policy outlooks of the Fed and the RBA are pretty similar. Last week, inflation data from Australia beat estimates and led to an erosion of rate cut expectations. As a result, investors do not expect any cuts from the Reserve Bank of Australia this year. Additionally, some are pricing in a slight chance that the central bank will hike interest rates. This similarity in policy outlooks will keep a floor on any declines in the AUD/USD pair. AUD/USD key events today US ADP employment change US ISM manufacturing PMI US job vacancies FOMC policy meeting Bank of Canada governor Macklem speaks AUD/USD technical forecast: Bears trigger a sentiment shift and eye the 0.6400 support On the charts, the AUD/USD price has broken below the 30-SMA and the 0.6500 critical level to signal a bearish sentiment shift. This marks the end of the previous bullish trend, which paused at the 0.6575 critical level. When it stopped at this level, the RSI made a bearish divergence with the price, showing bullish momentum was fading. –Are you interested to learn more about forex robots? Check our detailed guide- Soon afterwards, bearish momentum surged, reversing the trend. After breaking below 0.6500, the price might retest this level as resistance before targeting the 0.6400 support level. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/05/01/aud-usd-forecast-employment-data-boosts-greenback/

2024-05-01 08:07

Data from Canada revealed a smaller-than-expected 0.2% expansion in the economy. Investors are currently placing a 60% chance the BoC will cut rates in June. While investors expect 54bps of cuts in Canada, they only expect 32bps in the US. The USD/CAD price analysis turned bullish as data from Canada and the US underscored the widening gap in policy outlooks between the Fed and the BoC. Meanwhile, investors are awaiting the FOMC policy meeting. –Are you interested to learn more about crypto signals? Check our detailed guide- On Tuesday, data from Canada revealed a smaller-than-expected 0.2% expansion in the economy in February. Moreover, estimates for Q1 growth came in lower than the Bank of Canada’s forecasts. This indicates a deteriorating economy as businesses feel the impact of higher interest rates. Consequently, there is more reason for the BoC to start cutting interest rates in June. A further delay in the rate-cut cycle could cause more damage to an already weak economy. Investors are currently placing a 60% chance that the central bank will start cutting rates in June. Additionally, they expect a total of 54bps of rate cuts in 2024. Meanwhile, the US economy remains resilient despite high rates. Data on Tuesday revealed hotter-than-expected employment cost growth in the country. This was another sign of strength in the labor market that will keep the Fed cautious about rate cuts. While investors expect 54bps of cuts in Canada, they only expect 32bps in the US. Moreover, this figure might change after the FOMC policy meeting. When the Fed decides on a policy, they will likely maintain higher interest rates. Additionally, they might be more hawkish than they have been before, given the recent upbeat economic data. The Fed will maintain high rates as long as inflation remains above target. USD/CAD key events today US private employment US ISM manufacturing PMI US JOLTs job openings FOMC meeting BoC Macklem speaks USD/CAD technical price analysis: Price makes strong reversal after bullish RSI divergence On the technical side, the USD/CAD price has made a sharp bullish reversal by breaking above the 30-SMA resistance. This comes after the RSI showed weakness in the previous bearish trend with a bullish divergence. Currently, the RSI sits in the overbought region, supporting solid bullish momentum. –Are you interested to learn more about forex robots? Check our detailed guide- However, after such a sharp move where the price has only made bullish candles, bears might emerge for a short pause before the uptrend continues. The next target for this uptrend is at 1.3840. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/05/01/usd-cad-price-analysis-evident-policy-outlook-divergence/

2024-04-30 09:48

The dollar was firm ahead of the Fed’s policy meeting on Wednesday. The outlook for rate cuts in the US has diverged significantly from other countries. Market participants expect the first BoE cut in August. The GBP/USD price analysis reveals a mild bullish sentiment continuing from last week’s momentum. However, the dollar endeavors to firm up ahead of Wednesday’s Fed policy meeting. –Are you interested to learn more about crypto signals? Check our detailed guide- Notably, the pound fell as the impact of last week’s upbeat data wore off, allowing traders to focus on the policy divergence between the BoE and the Fed. Moreover, investors anticipate a hawkish Fed meeting on Wednesday. Most recent economic reports from the US point to a delay in rate cuts. Additionally, policymakers have assumed a more hawkish stance as they lose confidence that inflation will reach the central bank’s target. As a result, the outlook for rate cuts in the US has diverged significantly from that of other countries, including Britain. At tomorrow’s meeting, investors will focus on the central bank’s new economic projections. Moreover, they will watch Powell’s speech for clues on when the Fed might start cutting rates. Currently, markets place a lower 58% chance that the central bank will cut in September. At the same time, the likelihood of a cut in December has risen to nearly 80%. On the other hand, market participants expect the first BoE cut in August, well ahead of the Fed. This has kept the pound subdued. However, it recently rallied after upbeat business activity data from the UK indicated a recovery in the economy. The rally paused when market focus returned to the FOMC meeting. GBP/USD key events today US employment cost index (q/q) US CB consumer confidence GBP/USD technical price analysis: Uptrend pauses at solid resistance zone On the technical side, the GBP/USD price trades at a strong resistance zone. However, the bias is bullish because it trades above the 30-SMA, and the RSI is in bullish territory. Still, it faces downward pressure from the 1.2550 key resistance level and solid resistance trendline. –Are you interested to learn more about forex robots? Check our detailed guide- Consequently, bears might emerge to push the price lower and reverse the trend. They must break below the 30-SMA with the RSI dipping below 50 to do this. However, if bullish momentum remains strong, the price could break above this resistance zone and rise to retest the 1.2701 key resistance level. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/04/30/gbp-usd-price-analysis-buyers-dominate-ahead-of-fomc/

2024-04-30 09:41

XAU/USD escaped from the flag pattern, signaling more declines. A new lower low activates a larger correction. The US data could bring sharp movements today. The gold price is trading in the red at $2,316 at the time of writing. The metal looks poised to approach new lows in the short term. The price tried to return higher after the last sell-off. However, the downside pressure remains high. Hence, there is a probability of a deeper drop in cards. –Are you interested to learn more about crypto signals? Check our detailed guide- The XAU/USD slipped lower after the Australian Retail Sales reported a 0.4% drop against the expected 0.2% growth. At the same time, Private Sector Credit rose by 0.3%, less compared to the 0.4% growth estimated. In addition, the Chinese Manufacturing PMI and Non-Manufacturing PMI indicators also reported poor data. The sellers are strong also after the Eurozone released mixed data today. The CPI Flash Estimate rose by 2.4%, matching expectations. Core CPI Flash Estimate reported a 2.7% growth, exceeding the 2.6% growth forecasted, while Prelim Flash GDP came in better than expected. Later, the Canadian GDP is expected to report a 0.3% growth in February after a 0.6% growth in January. Also, the US will release the CB Consumer Confidence, Chicago PMI, HPI, Employment Cost Index, and S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI data. Positive economic figures should lift the greenback, so the yellow metal could hit new lows. Technically, the XAU/USD ended its temporary rebound and is now under intense selling pressure. As you can see on the hourly chart, the resistance is right below the descending pitchfork’s median line. –Are you interested to learn more about forex robots? Check our detailed guide- It has escaped from the up channel (flag pattern), confirming a potential downside continuation. The lower median line (lml) and the weekly S1 2,288 represent potential downside targets. A new lower low could activate more declines. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/04/30/gold-price-turns-bearish-as-fomc-meeting-looms/

2024-04-30 09:15

Investors eagerly await the FOMC policy meeting on Wednesday. Friday’s US PCE price index revealed high housing and utility prices. ECB policymakers remain confident that inflation is on a clear path to the 2% target. The EUR/USD outlook is bearish as the dollar strengthens in anticipation of the upcoming FOMC policy meeting. Meanwhile, the euro faces pressure as ECB policymakers express confidence in tackling inflation within the Eurozone. –Are you interested to learn more about crypto signals? Check our detailed guide- The Eurozone CPI records a 2.7% rise against the expected 2.6%. The event has given a slight respite to the Euro, with the major focus on how the US dollar reacts to events like FOMC and NFP this week. Investors eagerly await the FOMC policy meeting on Wednesday for more clues on the outlook for Fed rate cuts. Notably, markets expect the central bank to hold rates where they are currently. Moreover, policymakers might be more hawkish after recent data revealed continued economic strength and persistent inflation. Friday’s PCE price index revealed high housing and utility prices after a series of better-than-expected reports. Therefore, the Fed might continue holding higher interest rates for longer. Meanwhile, policymakers in the Eurozone remain confident that inflation is on a clear path to the 2% target. ECB’s Klaas Knot said inflation was steadily declining, giving him confidence that the central bank will start cutting interest rates in June. Moreover, he noted that geopolitical tensions only posed a small risk to the progress in lowering inflation. However, he remained cautious about cutting rates after the June meeting. Policymakers will wait to see the impacts of the recent increase in oil prices. Additionally, the Fed’s ever-changing policy outlook will shape what the ECB does after June. Too much divergence with the Fed could lead to a weaker currency and higher import prices. This, in turn, could increase inflation in the Eurozone. EUR/USD key events today US employment cost index US CB consumer confidence EUR/USD technical outlook: Bears challenge uptrend at the 30-SMA On the technical side, the EUR/USD price is on the verge of breaking below the 30-SMA. At the same time, the RSI trades below 50, showing increased bearish momentum. Bears are challenging the uptrend, which paused at the 0.5 Fib retracement level. –Are you interested to learn more about forex robots? Check our detailed guide- The previous bearish move was impulsive and stopped at the 1.0601 key level. At this point, bulls took over, pushing the price above the 30-SMA. However, the uptrend was shallow, with the price staying close to the SMA. Therefore, it was a corrective move. If bears break below the SMA, the price might make another impulsive move to retest 1.0601. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/04/30/eur-usd-outlook-dollar-firms-ahead-of-crucial-fomc-meeting/

2024-04-29 13:15

The bias is bullish in the short term. A new higher high activates further growth. The US data should bring high action tomorrow. The EUR/USD price retreated a little in the short term after reaching Friday’s high of 1.0752. Now, the pair is trading at 1.0718 at the time of writing. The US dollar remains under strong downside pressure, which may help the Euro mark a significant rally beyond the previous week’s high. –Are you interested to learn more about crypto signals? Check our detailed guide- Fundamentally, the US Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment came in worse than expected on Friday, while Personal Income and Core PCE Price Index matched expectations. The US dollar received a helping hand from the Personal Spending indicator, which reported 0.8% growth versus only a 0.6% growth estimate. The Euro remains strong in the short term, even though the German Prelim CPI reported only 0.5% growth compared to the 0.6% growth expected. Furthermore, the Spanish Flash CPI came in worse than expected as well. Tomorrow, the data docket presents the Eurozone Prelim Flash GDP, CPI Flash Estimate, Core CPI Flash Estimate, and the German Prelim GDP, Retail Sales, and Unemployment Change data. However, the US economic figures could impact the markets significantly. The CB Consumer Confidence and Employment Cost Index represent high-impact events. Meanwhile, the investors eagerly await FOMC and NFP events this week. From a technical point of view, the EUR/USD price is trapped between 1.0678 and 1.0750 levels. In the short term, the bias is bullish, so the current range is seen as a potential bullish continuation pattern. –Are you interested to learn more about forex robots? Check our detailed guide- The price seems undecided, meaning that an extended sideways movement is favored. As you can see on the hourly chart, the price retested the median line (ml), accumulating more bullish energy. However, only a new higher high and a valid breakout above the 1.0752 could trigger an upside continuation. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/04/29/eur-usd-price-gains-traction-above-1-07-eyes-on-eurozone-cpi/