2024-04-29 09:35
Oil prices lost nearly 1% on Monday amid talks of a ceasefire in the Middle East war. Canadian wholesale trade declined by 1.3% in March. US data showed a moderate inflation increase in March. The USD/CAD outlook shows a slight bullish trend, with the Canadian dollar weakening in response to declining oil prices. At the same time, recent data from Canada and the US has solidified expectations that the Bank of Canada will cut in June while the Fed remains hawkish. –Are you interested to learn more about crypto signals? Check our detailed guide- Oil prices lost nearly 1% on Monday amid talks of a ceasefire in the Middle East war. As a result, investors were less concerned about an escalation in the war and a tighter oil market. A drop in oil prices usually leads to a decline in the loonie, as Canada majorly exports the commodity. Meanwhile, data on Friday revealed that Canadian wholesale trade declined by 1.3% in March from the previous month. This was yet another indication of a slowdown in Canada’s economy. It puts more pressure on the Bank of Canada to cut rates by June. On the other hand, US data showed a moderate inflation increase in March. However, the costs of housing and utilities remained high, signaling persistent price pressures. Since the year began, US inflation data has kept surprising markets, leading to a decline in Fed rate cut expectations. Moreover, the outlook keeps changing with incoming data, making the Fed more hawkish than the Bank of Canada. As a result, the Canadian dollar has lost value against the US dollar since the year began. USD/CAD key events today The pair might consolidate, as no key economic releases are coming from Canada or the US today. USD/CAD technical outlook: Bears weaken near the 0.618 Fib On the technical side, the USD/CAD price is on a downtrend since it trades below the 30-SMA with the RSI in bearish territory. However, although the price respects the SMA as resistance, it has started trading near the line. Therefore, bears are finding it harder to make big swings below the SMA. This is a sign that they are weaker. This weakness is approaching the 0.618 Fib level, which might act as support. –Are you interested to learn more about forex robots? Check our detailed guide- At the same time, the RSI has made a bullish divergence, indicating weaker bearish momentum. If this divergence plays out, the price could break above the SMA to target the 1.3840 resistance level. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/04/29/usd-cad-outlook-oil-price-drop-weighs-on-canadian-dollar/
2024-04-29 08:09
Investors believe Japanese authorities intervened to support the yen. The gap in interest rates between Japan and the US remains wide. The US core PCE price index held at 0.3% from the previous month. The USD/JPY forecast turned bearish as the markets plummeted from a whopping 160.00 level amid intervention fears. The pair pulled back sharply after breaching the $160.00 level as the yen got a big boost early in the session. Investors believe Japanese authorities intervened by buying the yen and selling the dollar. –Are you interested to learn more about crypto signals? Check our detailed guide- The recent sharp decline to $160 came in the wake of the Bank of Japan policy meeting on Friday. The central bank held rates and gave little information regarding future rate hikes. As a result, investors were disappointed. The BoJ hiking cycle will likely be slow and gradual. Therefore, the gap in interest rates between Japan and the US will remain wide. This gap is the reason for the recent weakness in the yen. Notably, the currency has lost nearly 11% against the dollar in 2024. Although the BoJ raised rates for the first time last month, they signaled a less aggressive policy outlook than expected. Meanwhile, economic data has remained strong in the US, and inflation has been stubborn. The most recent inflation report was the core PCE price index, which was 0.3% from the previous month. Although it was in line with expectations, it showed that the decline in inflation has stalled. As investors prepare for the Fed meeting this week, they expect policymakers to keep delaying cuts until data shows a decrease in inflation. USD/JPY key events today Investors do not expect high-impact economic news from Japan or the US today. Therefore, the pair might continue reacting to the possible intervention. USD/JPY technical forecast: Sudden surge in bearish momentum threatens uptrend On the technical side, the USD/JPY price has broken above its bullish channel before falling sharply. The break above the channel showed that bulls were ready to start a steeper trend. However, bears rejected such a move by reversing the direction at the 160.00 key psychological level. –Are you interested to learn more about forex robots? Check our detailed guide- Despite the increased volatility, the price has stayed above the channel support. However, it has broken below the 30-SMA and the RSI below 50. This indicates a shift in sentiment that could soon see the trend reverse. Moreover, bears might retest the 154.01 support level. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/04/29/usd-jpy-forecast-yen-surges-on-intervention-fears/
2024-04-28 08:14
The euro strengthened on upbeat Eurozone business activity data. The dollar was weak as business activity in the US fell more than expected. The core PCE price index aligned with expectations, holding at 0.3%. The EUR/USD weekly forecast leans slightly bullish as the dollar faces pressure from weakening economic indicators. Ups and downs of EUR/USD The week was bullish for the EUR/USD pair as the euro strengthened on upbeat Eurozone business activity data. Still, policymakers remain convinced that the ECB will implement its first cut in June. –Are you interested to learn more about crypto signals? Check our detailed guide- Meanwhile, the dollar was weak as business activity in the US fell more than expected. Moreover, the gross domestic product figures missed forecasts, indicating a slowdown in the economy. Despite this, inflation figures remained high, leading to a decline in rate-cut expectations. The week ended with the core PCE price index, which aligned with expectations, holding at 0.3%. Next week’s key events for EUR/USD Next week, the US will have three key events: the FOMC policy meeting, the ISM manufacturing PMI, and the NFP report. All these will go a long way in shaping the outlook for Fed rate cuts. At the Fed meeting, markets expect the central bank to hold rates at 5.50%. However, more emphasis will be given to what policymakers say regarding the future, especially inflation. Hawkish guidance could lead to a decline in rate cut expectations that would see the EUR/USD pair decline. Similarly, investors will look for policy guidance in the nonfarm payrolls report. The last few months have shown solid demand in the labor market, which has delayed Fed rate cuts. Another upbeat report could push back the timing for the first rate cut to November. EUR/USD weekly technical forecast: Bears eye 1.0500 as pullback meets resistance On the technical side, the EUR/USD price is trading near the 1.0725 key resistance level and the 22-SMA line. The price retests this level after breaking below to make a new low. –Are you interested to learn more about forex robots? Check our detailed guide- Notably, the bias is bearish as the price has made a series of lower lows and highs. At the same time, it has respected a bearish trendline and the 22-SMA as resistance. Therefore, there is a high chance this trend will continue next week. The price might bounce lower to retest the 1.0500 key support level. Moreover, if it breaks above the SMA, then it will meet the trendline resistance, which will likely reverse it lower. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/04/28/eur-usd-weekly-forecast-focus-turns-to-fed-nfp-next-week/
2024-04-27 08:47
Several economic reports from the US pointed to a slowdown in the economy. US business activity fell in April, showing the impact of higher interest rates. Investors will focus on the FOMC meeting and the jobs report from the US. A subtle bearish trend emerges in the USD/CAD weekly forecast as the dollar relinquishes its strong position amid the slowdown in the US economy. Ups and downs of USD/CAD The USD/CAD pair had a bearish week characterized by dollar weakness. Several economic reports from the US pointed to a slowdown in the economy that weighed on the dollar. Notably, business activity fell in April, showing the impact of higher interest rates. –Are you interested to learn more about crypto signals? Check our detailed guide- Similarly, the economy grew at a smaller-than-expected 1.6% rate in the first quarter. Although this was a welcome relief for the Fed, inflation remained high, leading to a drop in rate cut expectations. Next week’s key events for USD/CAD Next week, Canada will release its gross domestic product report. Canada’s economy has slowed down significantly as higher interest rates lower demand. A weak GDP report would likely increase the chances of the first BoC cut in June. Meanwhile, investors will focus on the FOMC meeting and the jobs report from the US for clues on when the Fed might start cutting interest rates. Due to the stubborn inflation, the central bank will likely hold rates and call for patience on rate cuts. Additionally, the NFP report could surprise on the upside again. In such a case, investors would scale back Fed rate cut expectations. USD/CAD weekly technical forecast: Uptrend pauses, pullback reaches SMA support On the technical side, the USD/CAD price has pulled back to retest the 22-SMA after finding resistance at the 1.3840 key level. At the same time, the RSI has fallen to the 50-mark, which it respects as support. This is a sign that the bullish trend has paused for a pullback. –Are you interested to learn more about forex robots? Check our detailed guide- Moreover, the price now trades with the nearest support at 1.3601 and the nearest resistance at 1.3840. Since it is in a bullish trend, making higher highs and lows, it might respect the SMA as support and climb to retest the nearest resistance. Still, a sentiment shift will occur if the price breaks below the SMA and the nearest support level. This would signal a bearish takeover, allowing the price to target the 1.3400 support level. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/04/27/usd-cad-weekly-forecast-slowing-us-economy-dents-dollar/
2024-04-26 09:36
On Friday, the BoJ held rates as expected, lending room to the USD/JPY price. Traders panicked when the yen suddenly jumped for no apparent reason. The US GDP increased by 1.6% in Q1, missing forecasts. The USD/JPY price analysis remains bullish as the spike down quickly returned amid the BoJ’s inaction. Meanwhile, there was caution ahead of US inflation data that might shape the outlook for Fed rate cuts. On Friday, the BoJ held rates as expected. Moreover, policymakers noted that inflation was on a clear path to the central bank’s 2% target. This means the BoJ will likely hike interest rates later in the year. However, investors were disappointed as there was no clear message on the policy outlook. As a result, the yen plunged, allowing the USD/JPY pair to breach the $156.00 level. After the policy announcement, there were concerns that Japan would intervene to support the weak currency. Therefore, traders panicked when the yen suddenly jumped for no apparent reason. However, the move soon reversed itself. The last time the BoJ sold dollars to support its currency was in 2022. The recent weakness to 34-year lows has increased speculation that the central bank might intervene again in 2024. The USD/JPY price rose despite a weaker dollar. Notably, the dollar was weak after data from the previous session revealed a bigger-than-expected decline in economic growth. In Q1, the GDP increased by 1.6%, missing forecasts for an increase of 2.4%. A slowdown in the economy increases the chances that the Fed will cut interest rates. However, the inflation figures in the report revealed a different story. Underlying inflation jumped, leading to a significant drop in Fed rate cut expectations. Investors will now watch the core PCE price index for more clues on the Fed’s policy outlook. USD/JPY key events today BOJ press conference US core PCE price index US consumer sentiment USD/JPY technical price analysis: Bullish momentum holds within the channel On the technical side, the USD/JPY price has made a volatile candle that has tested its channel’s support and resistance. At the same time, it retested the 30-SMA support. However, the bullish bias remains intact since the candle has stabilized above the previous candle. -Are you looking for automated trading? Check our detailed guide- The price now sits above the 156.00 critical level and might soon reach the 157.00 resistance. However, the RSI is well above 70, showing the price is overbought. Therefore, it might pause or pull back before it continues higher. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/04/26/usd-jpy-price-analysis-bojs-inaction-weakens-yen/
2024-04-26 08:18
Wednesday’s data revealed weaker US economic growth in the first quarter. A measure of US core personal consumption expenditures jumped by 3.7%. Investors are cautious ahead of today’s core PCE price index report. The GBP/USD outlook remains bullish as the dollar loses ground following a disappointing gross domestic product report. However, the inflation figures buried within the report triggered a notable shift, dampening expectations for a Fed rate cut. As a result, investors are eager to receive the core PCE price index figures from the US. Wednesday’s data revealed weaker US economic growth in the first quarter. The gross domestic product grew at an annual rate of 1.6%, missing forecasts for 2.4%. This indicates a slowdown in the economy that would have given policymakers confidence that inflation would reach the 2% target. However, within the same report, a measure of core personal consumption expenditures rose by 3.7%, beating forecasts for a 3.4% increase. The increase indicates hotter-than-expected inflation. The Fed will hesitate to cut interest rates if inflation remains stubborn and persistent. Consequently, investors are cautious ahead of today’s core PCE price index report. The GDP figures increased fears that today’s report will also show a bigger-than-expected increase in inflation. After the GDP report, markets lowered the likelihood of a Fed rate cut in September to 58% from 70%. Meanwhile, the chances of a cut in November increased to 68%. This puts the Fed in a more hawkish position than the Bank of England, which might cut in June or August. Consequently, there might be more declines in the GBP/USD pair. GBP/USD key events today US core PCE price index m/m US revised UoM consumer sentiment GBP/USD technical outlook: Bulls approach solid resistance barrier On the technical side, the GBP/USD price is bullish as it climbs higher above the 30-SMA. At the same time, the RSI indicates solid bullish momentum as it trades well above 50. The recent shift in sentiment has allowed bulls to target the 1.2550 critical resistance level. This would allow the price to retrace 61.8% of the previous downtrend. -Are you looking for automated trading? Check our detailed guide- However, this means a strong resistance barrier. If the price fails to break above, it might pause to retest the 30-SMA. Meanwhile, if bullish momentum remains strong, a break above 1.2550 would allow the price to target the 1.2701 resistance. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/04/26/gbp-usd-outlook-dollar-slides-on-disappointing-gdp-figures/
