2024-12-06 13:19

French government bonds steadied on Friday, boosting the euro. Market participants are almost entirely pricing an ECB rate cut. US claims rose to 224,000 last week. The EUR/USD price analysis shows some calm in the French political scene, which has allowed the euro to recover. Meanwhile, the dollar was weak after unemployment figures in the previous session showed weakness in the labor market. Moreover, market participants await the nonfarm payrolls report for more insight into the Fed’s rate cut outlook. -Are you looking for the best AI Trading Brokers? Check our detailed guide- French government bonds steadied on Friday after the government collapse, boosting the euro. The government collapsed after lawmakers presented a motion of no confidence in Prime Minister Michel Barnier. This move followed his budget, revealing punitive tax increases that would hurt consumers and businesses. As a result, the Prime Minister resigned, leaving President Emmanuel Macron in a rush to replace him. Meanwhile, market participants are almost entirely pricing a rate cut at next week’s European Central Bank meeting. Moreover, markets will focus on the messaging regarding future rate cuts, which might impact the euro. On the other hand, the greenback remained weak after data on Thursday revealed an unexpected jump in unemployment claims. US claims rose to 224,000 last week, beating forecasts of 215,000. As a result, markets are pricing a lower 70% chance of a rate cut in December. Elsewhere, the US will release its nonfarm payrolls report, expected to show 195,000 new jobs in November and an unemployment rate of 4.2%. This report will shape Fed rate cut expectations. EUR/USD key events today US average hourly earnings m/m US non-farm employment change US unemployment rate EUR/USD technical price analysis: Decline pauses in a shallow wedge pattern On the technical side, EUR/USD has paused its decline and is currently trading in a shallow bullish wedge pattern. The downtrend weakened when the price made a new low near the 1.0400 key psychological level. Since then, the price has been chopping through the 30-SMA. At the same time, the RSI has chopped through the pivotal 50 level. –Are you looking for the best MT5 Brokers? Check our detailed guide- Bears might eventually break out to seek new lows if the pattern is a corrective move after the decline. However, at the moment, the price trades above the SMA within the wedge. Bulls are challenging the pattern’s resistance line. A break above would allow EUR/USD to revisit the 1.0700 resistance. Otherwise, bears will resurface to push the price back below the SMA. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/12/06/eur-usd-price-analysis-stable-france-lending-support/

2024-12-06 09:31

Most economists expect the RBA to keep rates unchanged next week. Market participants are pricing a 70% chance of an RBA rate cut in April. Forecasts show the US economy added slightly under 200,000 jobs in November. The AUD/USD outlook shows brief bullish momentum for the Aussie after most economists forecast the first RBA rate cut in Q2 of next year. Meanwhile, there was uncertainty about the greenback as market participants geared up for the US nonfarm payrolls report. -Are you looking for the best AI Trading Brokers? Check our detailed guide- A Reuters poll on Friday revealed that most economists expect the RBA to keep rates unchanged at the policy meeting on Tuesday. At the same time, most do not expect a rate cut until the second quarter of next year. Policymakers have maintained a cautious outlook due to the robust labor market. At the same time, core inflation in Australia has remained high at 3.5%. Market participants are pricing a 70% chance of a rate cut in April. Meanwhile, economists believe the Aussie will gain next year because the RBA will implement fewer rate cuts than the Fed. On the other hand, the traders remained cautious, awaiting the US monthly employment report. In the previous session, unemployment claims unexpectedly rose from 215,000 to 224,000, raising fears of weaker demand in the labor sector. However, all focus is on the looming NFP report. Forecasts show the US economy added slightly under 200,000 jobs in November, a significant surge from the previous month’s reading. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate might increase from 4.1% to 4.2%. An upbeat report will show resilience in the labor sector, which might call for more caution among Fed policymakers. On the other hand, if employment is weaker than expected, the dollar might collapse. At the same time, Fed rate cut bets will increase. AUD/USD key events today US average hourly earnings m/m US non-farm employment change US unemployment rate AUD/USD technical outlook: Brief pullback meets hurdle at 0.6450 On the technical side, AUD/USD bears have resurfaced at the 0.6450 key level and might push the price back to the 0.6400 support level. After breaking out of consolidation, the price initially paused at the 0.6400 support. Here, bulls took the chance to retest the 0.6450 level as resistance. -Are you looking for the best MT5 Brokers? Check our detailed guide- The pair held firm, and bears made an engulfing candlestick pattern, signaling a likely continuation of the downtrend. However, the price must make a new low below 0.6400 to confirm this. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/12/06/aud-usd-outlook-rba-rate-cut-outlook-briefly-boosts-aussie/

2024-12-05 10:47

PM Ishiba noted on Thursday that the government fully supports the Bank of Japan. US private employers hired 146,000 new workers in November. The US services sector grew less than expected in November. The USD/JPY outlook indicates a steady yen as markets prepare for a likely rate hike in Japan and a rate cut in the US. However, there was caution on Thursday, a day before the all-important US monthly employment report. -Are you looking for the best AI Trading Brokers? Check our detailed guide- The yen has rebounded amid increasing pressure on the Bank of Japan to hike interest rates in recent weeks. Inflation data has supported this outlook, allowing policymakers to shift to a more hawkish tone. At the same time, Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba noted on Thursday that the government fully supported the Bank of Japan. Moreover, he said it was time to end the stimulus policies, indicating his support for rate hikes. As a result, market participants are pricing an over 50% likelihood of a rate hike in December. Meanwhile, data in the US on Wednesday revealed that private employers hired 146,000 new workers in November. This was a drop from the previous month’s 184,000. However, there was little impact on the dollar as it came near the forecast of 152,000. Meanwhile, another report showed that the services sector grew less than expected in November, with the services PMI coming in at 52.1. Economists had expected a reading of 55.7. Markets also followed Powell’s speech where he noted that the US economy was more resilient than expected. As a result, policymakers might prefer to maintain caution in future policy moves. Traders are now looking forward to Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report. According to estimates, the economy added 195,000 jobs in November. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate rose from 4.1% to 4.2% USD/JPY key events today US unemployment claims USD/JPY technical outlook: Bulls struggling above 150.00 On the technical side, the USD/JPY price has stalled after attempting to break above the 30-SMA resistance. Soon after bulls punctured the SMA, the price made a bearish engulfing candle. This signaled a surge in bearish momentum. As a result, bears and bulls are now battling for control near the SMA. -Are you looking for the best MT5 Brokers? Check our detailed guide- Meanwhile, the RSI has made a bullish divergence, signaling a looming reversal. If bulls win, the price might soon retest the 152.00 resistance. On the other hand, if bears win, it will drop to the 149.02 support level. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/12/05/usd-jpy-outlook-japan-and-us-rate-decision-eyed/

2024-12-05 10:43

The USD/CAD pair traded in a tight range ahead of the US NFP report. The Fed Chair said that the US economy was more resilient than in September. Private employers added 146,000 jobs in November. The USD/CAD forecast shows a tight range as market participants remain cautious ahead of the US nonfarm payrolls report. Meanwhile, upbeat data in Canada failed to change the outlook for Bank of Canada rate cuts. -Are you looking for the best AI Trading Brokers? Check our detailed guide- The USD/CAD pair traded in a tight range on Thursday amid caution ahead of the crucial US nonfarm payrolls report. Traders preferred to stay on the sidelines, avoiding large positions. The thin trading continued even after Powell’s speech on Wednesday. The Fed Chair said that the US economy was more resilient than in September. Therefore, the central bank might prefer a more cautious approach to rate cuts. Markets have already priced in such an outcome. Nevertheless, there is an over 70% chance of a Fed rate cut in December. Meanwhile, the greenback remained steady despite downbeat economic data. The ADP employment report revealed that private employers added 146,000 jobs, down from the previous addition of 184,000. However, the decline came near economists’ forecasts. Meanwhile, a separate report revealed that business activity in the US services sector dropped more than expected. The ISM PMI came in at 52.1, well below the forecast of 55.7. However, all focus remains on Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report, which will shape the outlook for Fed rate cuts. Economists predict 195,000 new jobs in November and an unemployment rate of 4.2%. On the other hand, data in Canada showed that the services sector expanded in November, with the PMI jumping to 51.2 from 50.4. Nevertheless, traders still price a 50% chance of a 50-bps BoC rate cut in December. USD/CAD key events today US unemployment claims USD/CAD technical forecast: Wobbling around 30-SMA On the technical side, the USD/CAD price trades above the 30-SMA with the RSI above 50, supporting a bullish bias. Bulls took control after making an engulfing candle near a strong support trendline. However, since then, the price started trading in a tight range, and price action showed indecision. -Are you looking for the best MT5 Brokers? Check our detailed guide- A strong bullish catalyst will allow the price to retest the 1.4150 resistance level. Otherwise, it might break below the SMA to revisit the trendline. If the price stays above the trendline, the bullish bias will remain. Meanwhile, a break below will signal a reversal. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/12/05/usd-cad-forecast-cautious-trading-ahead-of-nfp-data/

2024-12-04 10:55

The Bank of England will likely stick to a gradual pace for rate cuts next year. US job vacancies rose more than expected. Markets are pricing a 75% chance of a Fed cut in December. The GBP/USD forecast indicates a strong pound after slightly hawkish Bank of England remarks. Meanwhile, the dollar gained after upbeat data in the previous session, and markets awaited more crucial US employment figures. -Are you looking for the best AI Trading Brokers? Check our detailed guide- BoE governor Andrew Bailey on Wednesday noted that the Bank of England would stick to a gradual pace for rate cuts next year. Markets are pricing four rate cuts in 2024. However, they do not expect any more cuts this year. Meanwhile, the greenback rose on Tuesday after figures showed that US job vacancies rose more than expected. The JOLTs report revealed 7.74 million job openings, above estimates of 7.51 million. The numbers indicated a high demand for labor. However, there was little impact on rate cut expectations as traders awaited the more crucial nonfarm payrolls report. According to estimates, the economy might add 195,000 new jobs in November. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate might increase to 4.2%. The last report showed dismal job growth at 12,000. However, experts chalked it up to hurricane disruptions. Another month of poor job growth could be a red flag for the labor sector. Moreover, it would increase bets for a rate cut in December, weighing on the dollar. On the other hand, an upbeat report could lower the chances of a rate cut, boosting the greenback. At the same time, traders will pay attention to Powell’s speech later in the day for clues on the outlook for rate cuts. Currently, markets are pricing a 75% chance of a cut in December. GBP/USD key events today US ADP non-farm employment change US ISM services PMI Fed Chair Powell Speaks GBP/USD technical forecast: Struggling to break 1.2701 resistance On the technical side, the GBP/USD price has bounced off the 30-SMA but failed to breach the 1.2701 resistance level. Bulls took over when the downtrend paused at the 1.2500 support level. The price broke above the 30-SMA and made a new high slightly above the 1.2701 resistance level. -Are you looking for the best MT5 Brokers? Check our detailed guide- From here it retested the 30-SMA as support and remained attached to the line. A surge in bullish momentum will allow the price to break above 1.2701 to continue the uptrend. Otherwise, it might break below the SMA to retest the 1.2500 support. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/12/04/gbp-usd-forecast-boes-slightly-hawkish-tone-lifts-pound/

2024-12-04 10:46

Australia’s economy expanded by 0.3% in the third quarter. Market participants increased the likelihood of an RBA rate cut in April from 73% to 96%. Job vacancies in the US increased to 7.74 million. The AUD/USD price analysis shows a quickly collapsing Aussie as markets price in a higher likelihood of a Reserve Bank of Australia rate cut in April. Meanwhile, the dollar remained strong after upbeat employment figures in the previous session. -Are you looking for the best AI Trading Brokers? Check our detailed guide- Data on Wednesday revealed that Australia’s economy expanded by 0.3% in the third quarter, well below estimates for a 0.5% expansion. The weak economic data raised fears of a rapid economic slowdown. As a result, market participants increased the likelihood of an RBA rate cut in April from 73% to 96%. The RBA has remained cautious while other major central banks lower borrowing costs. Policymakers have noted that interest rates in Australia are not as high as those in other major economies. However, signs of weaker economic performance indicate demand is dropping due to high borrowing costs. Therefore, it will pressure the central bank to cut interest rates. On the other hand, the greenback strengthened on Tuesday after data revealed that job vacancies in the US increased to 7.74 million, above forecasts of 7.51 million. Higher-than-expected job openings are a sign that demand for labor is high. Therefore, the labor sector remains robust. However, market participants await the more crucial nonfarm payroll report, which is due on Friday. This will give a clearer picture of the labor sector and shape the outlook for Fed rate cuts. Now, traders are pricing a 75% chance of a rate cut in December. A downbeat employment report will increase this likelihood and weigh on the dollar. On the other hand, robust numbers will do the opposite. AUD/USD key events today US unemployment claims AUD/USD technical price analysis: Bears break below range support On the technical side, the AUD/USD price has broken out of consolidation, with bears aiming for the 0.6400 support level. Before this move, the price was caught in a range between the 0.6450 support and the 0.6550 resistance level. -Are you looking for the best MT5 Brokers? Check our detailed guide- However, bears gained enough strength to breach the range support, likely starting a new bearish trend. The price now sits well below the SMA, with the RSI nearing the oversold region. A series of lower highs and lows will confirm a new downtrend. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/12/04/aud-usd-price-analysis-markets-pricing-in-rba-easing/