2024-04-18 05:30

UK inflation fell from 3.4% in February to 3.2% in March. Governor Bailey said the decline in inflation aligned with the central bank’s forecasts. There is more caution about rate cuts in the US. Things are looking up in the GBP/USD forecast as the pound stages a recovery following a smaller-than-expected decline in inflation. At the same time, the dollar is falling as investors pause the recent data-driven rally. -Are you looking for the best AI Trading Brokers? Check our detailed guide- On Wednesday, the UK released data showing higher-than-expected inflation, which led to a decline in rate cut expectations. Inflation fell from 3.4% in February to 3.2% in March. However, economists had expected a bigger decline to 3.1%. As a result, traders scaled back bets for BoE rate cuts. At the moment, they expect the first cut in August or September. Still, there is more clarity on The BoE’s rate cut outlook than the Fed’s. After the report, Governor Bailey said the decline aligned with the central bank’s forecasts. Moreover, he said inflation was on a downtrend and would reach the central bank’s target. Meanwhile, Fed policymakers are less certain about the direction of inflation in the US. Recent data has indicated a pause at levels above the central bank’s target. Moreover, the economy remains resilient despite higher interest rates. Therefore, there is more caution about rate cuts in the US. Additionally, Fed Chair Powell has said that restrictive policy conditions will likely continue for longer. With no clear timing for the first cut, investors are betting on some time in the fourth quarter. Some experts even believe the Fed might not cut in 2024 if inflation remains stubborn. GBP/USD key events today US unemployment claims GBP/USD technical forecast: Bears weaken at the 1.618 Fib extension level On the technical side, the GBP/USD price is consolidating between the 30-SMA and the 1.2400 key level. Meanwhile, the bias is bearish because the range is below the 30-SMA, and the RSI is in bearish territory below 50. However, the price has failed to close strongly below the 1.618 Fib extension level. -Are you looking for the best MT5 Brokers? Check our detailed guide- Moreover, the RSI has made a bullish divergence, indicating weaker bearish momentum. Consequently, bulls might be preparing to make a big move that would break above the 30-SMA. This would signal a shift in the bias to bullish. Moreover, the price would likely retest the 1.2550 key level. However, if bears regain strength, the price will fall below 1.2400. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/04/18/gbp-usd-forecast-pound-rebounds-on-mild-inflation-drop/

2024-04-17 13:17

The bearish pressure remains high as long as it stays below the median line. A new higher high activates a larger rebound. The price action signaled an oversold. The GBP/USD price rallied today and hit as high as 1.2481 after the UK CPI came in better than expected. Now, the pair has retreated a little and is trading at 1.2457 at the time of writing. -Are you looking for the best AI Trading Brokers? Check our detailed guide- In the short term, the pair lacks strong conviction. So, we’ll have to wait for fresh opportunities before taking action. The downside pressure remains high despite short-term rebounds, as the US dollar is still bullish. The US Building Permits, Housing Starts, and Capacity Utilization Rate came in worse than expected, while Industrial Production reported a 0.4% growth as expected. Today, the British Pound took the lead as the UK Consumer Price Index reported a 3.2% growth versus the 3.1% growth estimated, while Core CPI announced a 4.2% growth, exceeding the 4.1% growth estimated. However, the HPI and PPI Input came in worse than expected. Tomorrow, the US Unemployment Claims, Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, CB Leading Index, and Existing Home Sales can move the prices. Moreover, the United Kingdom retail sales data should bring high action on Friday. Technically, the currency pair failed to stay below the lower median line (lml) of the descending pitchfork, signaling sellers’ exhaustion. However, the bias remains bearish as long as it stays below the median line (ml). -Are you looking for the best MT5 Brokers? Check our detailed guide- After today’s strong rally, the price could come back to retest the demand zone from above 1.2420. A larger rebound could be activated after taking out the median line (ml) of the descending pitchfork and the 1.2498 static resistance. On the contrary, a new lower low activates more declines. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/04/17/gbp-usd-price-rebounds-as-uk-inflation-remains-hot/

2024-04-17 13:05

Powell’s speech lacked indications of when rate cuts would begin. The Bank of America revised its outlook and expects the first Fed cut in December or later. Eurozone inflation is on a clear path to the 2% target. A hint of bullish sentiment emerges in the EUR/USD forecast as the dollar takes a step back following a robust rally. Yet, amidst this glimmer of optimism, Euro bears stand firm, with economic indicators signaling further downward pressure. -Are you looking for the best AI Trading Brokers? Check our detailed guide- Notably, the dollar rose Tuesday as Fed policymakers sounded more hawkish, pushing back rate cut expectations. Investors paid close attention to Powell’s speech, which lacked indications of when rate cuts would begin. Moreover, the Federal Reserve’s Chair said the US needs a restrictive monetary policy for a bit longer. These recent remarks came after the US retail sales report, which pointed to robust consumer spending. Incoming data has completely changed the outlook for interest rates in the US. Notably, the Bank of America revised its outlook and expects the first Fed cut in December or later. At the same time, investors are betting on September for the start of rate cuts. This is the complete opposite of the Eurozone. On Tuesday, ECB policymakers continued supporting the first cut in June. Unlike the US, Eurozone inflation is on a clear path to the 2% target. Moreover, the economy is slowing down. Therefore, nothing is holding the ECB back. If the ECB cuts in June, it will be well ahead of the Fed. Furthermore, market participants expect 77bps in cuts in the Eurozone. This is much bigger than the 40bps expected in the US. This divergence will likely keep the EUR/USD pair on a strong downtrend. EUR/USD key events today Investors are not expecting any volatility today, as neither the US nor the Eurozone will release major economic reports. EUR/USD technical forecast: Decline pauses as bears get exhausted On the technical side, the bias for the EUR/USD pair is bearish. However, the decline has paused at a major support zone comprising the 1.618 Fib extension and 1.0600 key support levels. -Are you looking for the best MT5 Brokers? Check our detailed guide- Moreover, the RSI showed a bullish divergence in the oversold region, indicating exhaustion in the downtrend. Therefore, there is a high chance that bulls will prompt a retest of the 30-SMA. The price might even rise to retest the 1.0600 key level before continuing lower. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/04/17/eur-usd-forecast-dollar-eases-after-impressive-surge/

2024-04-17 09:57

China’s economy grew more than expected in the first quarter. Fed policymakers pushed back expectations for rate cuts. Powell noted that the US economy needs a restrictive policy for a bit longer. The AUD/USD price analysis reveals a subtle bullish tilt as the Aussie stages a comeback, propelled by encouraging economic data from China. Yet, amidst this optimistic backdrop, a shadow looms. The dollar stands firm, fueled by Fed Chair Powell’s hawkish remarks. -Are you looking for the best AI Trading Brokers? Check our detailed guide- Notably, data on Tuesday showed that China’s economy grew more than expected in the first quarter. The economy expanded by 5.3%, compared to estimates of 4.6%. This was a big relief for policymakers trying to support the economy. As a result, the Aussie, a proxy of the Yuan, strengthened. Nevertheless, the downtrend for the AUD/USD price remains intact, as fundamentals point to continued strength in the dollar. The dollar strengthened further on Tuesday as Fed policymakers pushed back rate-cut expectations. Notably, Powell avoided making any comments regarding the timing of rate cuts. Instead, he noted that the US economy needs a restrictive policy for a bit longer. This means higher interest rates for longer. Markets are betting that the first Fed rate cut will come in September. Moreover, they expect only 40bps of total rate cuts in 2024. This is a big decline from the 160bps expected when the year began. Moreover, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have raised concerns that high fuel prices might lead to a return of high inflation. AUD/USD key events today Markets do not expect any key reports today from Australia or the US. Therefore, investors will keep absorbing policymakers’ remarks. AUD/USD technical price analysis: Temporary rebound from 0.6400 support On the technical side, the AUD/USD price is on a steep downtrend that has paused at the 0.6400 key support level. Still, the price sits well below the 30-SMA, and the RSI is far under 50, supporting a solid bearish bias. -Are you looking for the best MT5 Brokers? Check our detailed guide- Bears took over when bullish momentum weakened near the 0.6625 key resistance level. The RSI made a bearish divergence, and the price made a bearish engulfing candle that broke below the 30-SMA. Moreover, the price fell below the 0.6500 key support level. Therefore, the current pause might only retest the 30-SMA before the price falls further. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/04/17/aud-usd-price-analysis-picks-up-amid-chinas-economic-growth/

2024-04-16 12:24

Falling to reach 1.06, announced exhausted sellers. The fundamentals should be decisive today. Taking out 1.0665 activates a larger growth. The EUR/USD price is trading in the green at 1.0640 at the time of writing. The pair looks positive to recover some of the recent losses. However, the US dollar remains bullish, and further growth should force the Euro to lose ground. -Are you looking for the best AI Trading Brokers? Check our detailed guide- The currency pair reached a new lower low of 1.06023 today. The downside pressure was high as the US retail sales data came in better than expected. The Retail Sales indicator reported a 0.7% growth versus the 0.4% growth estimated, while Core Retail Sales reported a 1.1% growth, beating the 0.5% growth forecasted. Today, the Euro received a helping hand from the Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment, which came in at 43.9 points, above 37.8 points estimated, and from the German ZEW Economic Sentiment, the indicator jumped from 31.7 points to 42.9 points, above 35.9 forecasts. Later, the Canadian inflation figures could bring sharp movements in this market as well. Also, the US will release the Industrial Production, Capacity Utilization Rate, Building Permits, and Housing Starts data. Poor economic figures should weaken the greenback. From the technical point of view, the EUR/USD price failed to break the 1.06 psychological level, signaling sellers’ exhaustion. The pair has failed to stay below the lower median line (lml) of the descending pitchfork, and now it has passed above the immediate downtrend line, indicating a potential rebound. -Are you looking for the best MT5 Brokers? Check our detailed guide- The price action signaled a bullish divergence as well. However, it’s premature to talk about a shift in the trend as the pair is far from bullish territory. I think only taking out the 1.0665 may activate a significantly higher swing. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/04/16/eur-usd-price-finds-life-amid-upbeat-eurozone-data/

2024-04-16 11:14

Data on Monday revealed a bigger-than-expected 0.7% increase in US retail sales. Fed policymakers have gradually lost confidence in their progress toward lowering inflation. Japanese officials have kept up their verbal warnings against large currency declines. The USD/JPY price analysis is fueled by bullish sentiment, reaching a 34-year peak amid a sour market mood. The dollar surge, driven by upbeat US data, amplified the yen’s decline, prompting investor war toward a possible Japanese intervention. -Are you looking for the best AI Trading Brokers? Check our detailed guide- Data on Monday revealed a bigger-than-expected 0.7% increase in US retail sales. This was the third consecutive positive key report, indicating a resilient economy. Moreover, the retail sales report is a leading indicator of consumer spending. If consumers still have a lot of money to spend, it is a sign that the economy is doing well. This could, in turn, lead to a spike in inflation, which remains above the Fed’s target of 2%. Therefore, the Fed will most likely delay rate cuts. Furthermore, policymakers have gradually lost confidence in the progress made to lower inflation. Consequently, most have assumed a hawkish stance, calling for patience on rate cuts. As a result, markets expect the first rate cut in September. At the same time, they expect a smaller 45 bps in total rate cuts this year. This shift in outlook has propelled the dollar and Treasury yields to new highs, putting downward pressure on the yen. Japanese officials have kept up their verbal warnings against large currency declines. However, this has had little effect as the USD/JPY price has broken above $154. With the $155 level looming large, markets expect an intervention. Such an outcome could strengthen the yen for some time. USD/JPY key events today Fed Chair Powell speaks. USD/JPY technical price analysis: Cautious bullish move signaling reversal On the charts, the USD/JPY price has broken above the 154.00 key resistance level to make a new high. Therefore, the price is on a bullish trend. However, while the price has a higher high, the RSI has a lower one, showing a divergence. -Are you looking for the best MT5 Brokers? Check our detailed guide- The bulls are in the lead, but momentum is fading. Still, if bulls keep control, the price will soon retest the 155.01 resistance level. On the other hand, if the divergence plays out, bears will make a strong move to retest the 30-SMA or break below. Meanwhile, the divergence will drag on as the bullish trend continues if bears are not ready to reverse the trend. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/04/16/usd-jpy-price-analysis-yen-marks-3-decade-lows-against-dollar/