2024-12-03 10:47

The euro plunged in the previous session due to political turmoil in France. The euro lost 3% of its value against the dollar in November. The US manufacturing PMI increased from 46.5 to 48.4. The EUR/USD price analysis shows some bullish momentum after a slide in the previous session. However, fundamentals still suggest further downside for the pair. Meanwhile, the dollar gave up yesterday’s gains as traders awaited crucial data for clues on Fed rate cuts. -Are you looking for the best AI Trading Brokers? Check our detailed guide- The euro plunged in the previous session due to political turmoil in the Eurozone’s second-largest economy. France’s government is on the brink of collapse after major parties moved a motion of no confidence in Prime Minister Michel Barnier. This conflict came after the PM’s budget revealed punitive tax increases, among other changes, to help repair the weak economy. A collapse in France’s economy will be one more reason for market participants to sell the euro. Recently, economic data has shown a rapid decline in the economy, raising the likelihood of an ECB rate cut this month. At the same time, Trump’s trade proposals have raised fears of further deterioration in the economy, weighing on the euro. In November, the currency lost 3% of its value against the dollar, with experts predicting a drop to parity. Meanwhile, the greenback rebounded on Monday after data showed that the US manufacturing PMI increased from 46.5 to 48.4. The upbeat report slightly lowered the likelihood of a Fed rate cut in December. However, the effects on the dollar faded by Tuesday as the market focus shifted to more important data this week. Economists expect an increase in the US unemployment rate to 4.2%. Such an outcome will solidify December Fed rate cut bets and hurt the dollar. Meanwhile, the economy might add 195,000 jobs in November. EUR/USD key events today JOLTS Job Openings EUR/USD technical price analysis: Bears meet solid barrier at 1.0500 On the technical side, the EUR/USD price has recovered to retest the 30-SMA resistance after pausing its decline near the 1.0500 key level. The bias shifted when bears took charge by breaking below the 30-SMA. If the price stays below the SMA, it might soon break below 1.0500 to retest the 1.0301 support level. -Are you looking for the best MT5 Brokers? Check our detailed guide- On the other hand, if bulls take back control, the price will likely climb to retest the 1.0700 resistance. At the same time, the RSI will break above 50. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/12/03/eur-usd-price-analysis-recovery-above-1-05-may-stall/

2024-12-03 09:42

Canada’s manufacturing PMI rose from 51.1 to 52.0 in November. The US manufacturing PMI rose to 48.4 after a previous reading of 46.5. US unemployment might increase in November. The USD/CAD outlook shows stronger-than-expected business activity in Canada’s manufacturing sector which is supporting the loonie. Meanwhile, the dollar eased slightly as market participants awaited more clues on future Fed policy moves. -Are you looking for the best AI Trading Brokers? Check our detailed guide- Data on Monday revealed that Canada’s manufacturing PMI rose from 51.1 to 52.0 in November, the third consecutive month of expansion. At the same time, it was the fastest growth in nearly two years. The Bank of Canada has lowered rates aggressively to boost growth, and the effects are clear in the economy. Nevertheless, market participants expect the central bank to continue at this pace until more sectors of the economy recover. Policymakers might vote for another massive rate cut in December. On the other hand, the dollar also rebounded on Monday after an upbeat US manufacturing report. Notably, the manufacturing PMI rose to 48.4 after a previous reading of 46.5. The figures briefly boosted the dollar before caution returned ahead of key employment data and policymaker remarks. The dollar ended last week frail as markets priced a 66% chance of a Fed rate cut in December. This week, more data will continue shaping this outlook. The nonfarm payrolls report might show an increase in the unemployment rate from 4.1% to 4.2%, supporting the outlook for a rate cut. Meanwhile, economists expect a faster job growth, with the economy adding 195,000 jobs in November. A miss would solidify rate-cut bets. On the other hand, an unexpected jump would increase the likelihood of a pause. At the same time, traders will watch Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech, which might contain further policy clues. USD/CAD key events today JOLTS Job Openings USD/CAD technical outlook: Bears fight for control at the 30-SMA On the technical side, the USD/CAD price is dropping toward the bullish trendline, which acts as a strong support level. Initially, bulls showed strength and pushed the price above the 30-SMA. However, they failed to sustain a move to the 1.4150 resistance level. -Are you looking for the best MT5 Brokers? Check our detailed guide- As a result, the price broke back below the SMA, and the RSI dipped below 50. However, bears must break below the trendline and the 1.3951 support level to confirm a new downtrend. Otherwise, the price will bounce again, aiming for the 1.4150 resistance. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/12/03/usd-cad-outlook-manufacturing-surge-bolsters-loonie/

2024-12-02 10:44

Canada’s economy expanded by 1% in the third quarter. Markets raised the chances of another super-sized BoC rate cut from 31% to 50%. Market participants are awaiting the US nonfarm payrolls report. The USD/CAD outlook shows a weak Canadian dollar after data last week raised the likelihood of another massive Bank of Canada rate cut in December. Meanwhile, the dollar was steady as market participants looked forward to key data and Fed policymaker remarks. -Are you looking for the best AI Trading Brokers? Check our detailed guide- Data on Friday revealed that Canada’s economy expanded by 1% in the third quarter, beating the Bank of Canada’s estimate for a 1.5% increase. At the same time, the figure was a big decline from the second quarter when the economy expanded by 2.2%. After the data, markets raised the chances of another super-sized rate cut in December from 31% to 50%. Interest rates in Canada have fallen faster than anywhere else because the economy is extremely sensitive to high rates. Consequently, economic growth has slowed down sharply due to high borrowing costs. At the same time, the economy is facing the threat of a 25% tariff on goods exported to the US. If there is no negotiation between the two countries, Canada’s economy will suffer. At the same time, the Bank of Canada will be under more pressure to spur growth with lower borrowing costs. On the other hand, the US economy has remained fairly resilient in the face of high rates. Meanwhile, inflation has paused near the Fed’s 2% target. Although traders expect a rate cut in December, they expect a gradual pace in 2025. Trump’s administration will likely boost economic demand and reheat the economy. Elsewhere, market participants are awaiting the US nonfarm payrolls report due on Friday for more clues on the December Fed meeting. Currently bets show a 65% chance of a rate cut. USD/CAD key events today ISM Manufacturing PMI USD/CAD technical outlook: Bullish engulfing candle On the technical side, the USD/CAD price has paused at the 30-SMA resistance after making a strong reversal signal. The price made a bullish engulfing pattern after reaching its bullish trendline. Although USD/CAD has been chopping through the 30-SMA, it has made higher highs and lows, signaling a bullish trend. -Are you looking for the best MT5 Brokers? Check our detailed guide- Consequently, there is a high chance this trend will continue with a break above the 30-SMA. Bulls will aim to challenge the 1.4150 resistance level. The trend will only change if the price breaks below the trendline. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/12/02/usd-cad-outlook-markets-brace-for-aggressive-boc-rate-cut/

2024-12-02 10:41

Retail sales in Australia grew by 0.6% in October, above forecasts of a 0.4% increase. Market participants do not expect an RBA rate cut this year. US employers likely hired 195,000 new workers in November. The AUD/USD forecast shows a volatile start to the week due to upbeat Australian economic data and a recovering dollar. At the same time, markets are gearing up for the US nonfarm employment report which will give more clues on Fed rate cuts. -Are you looking for the best AI Trading Brokers? Check our detailed guide- Data on Monday revealed that retail sales in Australia grew by 0.6% in October, above forecasts of a 0.4% increase. Moreover, it was a significant jump from the previous reading of 0.1%. Consequently, the Aussie rose briefly. Australia’s economy has remained resilient with underlying inflation and the strong labor market keeping policymakers cautious. As a result, market participants do not expect a rate cut this year. At the same time, they are only fully pricing the first cut in May 2025. This will put the Reserve Bank of Australia among the last major central banks to lower borrowing costs. Meanwhile, the dollar recovered after closing last week down. Nevertheless, the near-term outlook remains down as markets increase bets for a December Fed rate cut. Currently, traders are pricing a 65% chance of such an outcome. However, data this week might shift this outlook. The US will release its nonfarm payrolls report, showing the health of the labor market. According to estimates, employers likely hired 195,000 new workers in November. This would be a big surge from the previous month’s 12,000. However, the unemployment rate might increase from 4.1% to 4.2%, putting more pressure on the US central bank to cut rates in December. AUD/USD key events today ISM Manufacturing PMI AUD/USD technical forecast: Ranging between 0.6450-0.6550 On the technical side, the AUD/USD price shows indecision near the 30-SMA after recently breaking above it. At the same time, the RSI trades near the 50 level, showing almost equal momentum for bulls and bears. -Are you looking for the best MT5 Brokers? Check our detailed guide- Furthermore, on a larger scale, the price is consolidating between the 0.6450 support and the 0.6550 resistance levels. If the price stays above the SMA, it will likely climb to retest the range resistance level. On the other hand, if it breaks below, it might reach the range support. Moreover, The price will only start trending when it breaks out of consolidation. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/12/02/aud-usd-forecast-strong-aussie-economy-meets-strong-dollar/

2024-11-30 18:42

The US economy expanded by 2.8% as expected. The US core PCE price index increased by 0.3%, in line with expectations. Optimism over Trump’s win and policy changes faded. The GBP/USD weekly forecast suggests a rebound in the pound as the fading Trum trade puts downward pressure on the greenback. Ups and downs of GBP/USD The pound had its strongest week since September as the dollar eased from its peak with the fading Trump trade. Data during the week showed that the US economy expanded by 2.8% as expected. Meanwhile, the core PCE price index increased by 0.3%, in line with expectations. Consequently, market participants were more confident that the Fed would cut rates in December. -Are you looking for the best AI Trading Brokers? Check our detailed guide- Meanwhile, optimism over Trump’s win and policy changes faded, leading to a decline in the dollar and Treasury yields. Markets will now wait to see if Trump will pass his policy proposals in the coming year Next week’s key events for GBP/USD Next week, the UK will release figures on business activity in the manufacturing sector. Flash figures recently showed a slowdown in the economy, pushing market participants to increase the likelihood of a more aggressive Bank of England rate cut cycle. Meanwhile, US reports will include the manufacturing PMI and nonfarm payrolls report. Recent flash PMI numbers robust business activity in November. Therefore, there is a chance this trend will continue, lowering the likelihood of a Fed rate cut in December. Meanwhile, the nonfarm payrolls report will show the state of the labor market. If job growth remains slow like last month, it will increase expectations for a rate cut in December. On the other hand, if job growth jumps, the Fed might end the year with a pause. GBP/USD weekly technical forecast: 1.2500 support prompts pullback On the technical side, the GBP/USD price has rebounded to retest the 22-SMA resistance after finding support at the 1.2500 level. The rebound has also allowed the price to retest the 1.2750 resistance level. Therefore, there is a strong barrier for bulls which might see the price bouncing lower. -Are you looking for the best MT5 Brokers? Check our detailed guide- If bears return at the 22-SMA, they will aim to make a new low below the 1.2500, continuing the downtrend. On the other hand, there is a slight chance that bulls will break above the SMA next week. Such an outcome would signal a reversal and allow the price to revisit the 1.3007 resistance level. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/11/30/gbp-usd-weekly-forecast-sterling-rises-as-trump-trade-fades/

2024-11-30 18:36

The yen rallied on a higher likelihood of a Bank of Japan rate hike in December. Core inflation in Tokyo increased more than expected. US inflation figures came in line with expectations. The USD/JPY weekly forecast supports further downside for the pair as the yen finds relief due to the increasing bets for a BoJ rate hike. Ups and downs of USD/JPY The USD/JPY pair had a bearish week as the yen rallied on a higher likelihood of a Bank of Japan rate hike in December. At the same time, the dollar eased as market focus shifted to the likelihood of a Fed rate cut in December. -Are you looking for the best AI Trading Brokers? Check our detailed guide- Data during the week revealed that core inflation in Tokyo increased more than expected. As a result, traders were pricing a higher chance that BoJ policymakers will hike rates by 25-bps in December. At the same time, US inflation figures came in line with expectations, solidifying bets for a December rate cut. Next week’s key events for USD/JPY Next week, traders will focus on economic reports from the US, including the manufacturing PMI and monthly employment figures. The PMI report will show the level of business activity in the manufacturing sector. Meanwhile, the employment report will show the state of the labor market. In the previous month, job growth slowed significantly to 12,000 raising fears of deterioration. Another downbeat month will solidify bets for a December rate cut. USD/JPY weekly technical forecast: Bears face hurdle at 150.02 On the technical side, the USD/JPY price has reversed to the downside after finding solid resistance at the 156.06 level. Bears resurfaced at this resistance with a bearish engulfing candle that led to a break below the 22-SMA. At the same time, the RSI broke below the 50 level and entered into bearish territory. -Are you looking for the best MT5 Brokers? Check our detailed guide- However, the price must now start making lower highs and lows to confirm a new downtrend. At the moment, bears are facing strong support from the 150.02 level and the 0.382 Fib retracement level. A break below this support zone will allow USD/JPY to set its sights on lower support levels including 145.06 and the 0.618 Fib. Meanwhile, if the price breaks back above the SMA, it might revisit the 156.06 resistance. A break above would confirm a continuation of the previous bullish trend. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/11/30/usd-jpy-weekly-forecast-boj-rate-hike-odds-boost-yen/