2024-04-16 08:35
US retail and core retail sales jumped in March. The likelihood of a Fed cut in September has risen to 46%. Data revealed a slight easing in the UK labor market. The GBP/USD outlook suggests downward momentum as the Pound clings near 5-month lows following US and UK data. While the US boasts surprisingly strong sales figures, the UK registered a mild dip in wage growth. -Are you looking for the best AI Trading Brokers? Check our detailed guide- The dollar strengthened after another set of positive economic data from the US. Retail and core retail sales jumped in March, indicating robust consumer spending. This report followed the hot inflation figures and the blockbuster jobs report. Consequently, it gave policymakers another reason to doubt whether inflation is on a downtrend. Moreover, it led to a further decline in Fed rate cut expectations. The likelihood of a cut in July has fallen to 41%. Meanwhile, the likelihood of a cut in September has risen to 46%. Demand in the US economy has remained robust despite the high interest rates. Meanwhile, most other major economies are slowing down with inflation falling. Therefore, there is a growing divergence in monetary policy outlooks. Elsewhere, the pound weakened after data revealed a slight easing in the UK labor market. Core wage growth in the UK slowed in the three months to February, giving the Bank of England another reason to consider rate cuts. Wages without bonuses grew 6.0%, down from 6.1%. Still, the shifting rate cut outlook in the US has affected the BoE’s rate cut outlook. Investors are scaling back expectations for UK rate cuts because the Fed might only cut interest rates later in the year. If the BoE starts cutting much earlier, it could lead to a policy divergence that would weigh on the pound. GBP/USD key events today BOE Gov Bailey Speaks Fed Chair Powell Speaks GBP/USD technical outlook: Weak below 1.2500 support On the technical side, the GBP/USD price has broken below the 1.2500 key support level and has reached the 1.618 Fib extension level. Moreover, the bearish bias is strong as the price sits well below the 30-SMA with the RSI just above the oversold region. -Are you looking for the best MT5 Brokers? Check our detailed guide- However, the bearish move looks exhausted as the price makes smaller candles. At the same time, the RSI has made a higher low, indicating weaker momentum. Therefore, the price might be pulled back to retest the 1.2500 key level or the 30-SMA before continuing to be lower. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/04/16/gbp-usd-outlook-pound-maintains-5-month-low-following-data/
2024-04-15 14:19
The downside pressure remains high as the DXY is bullish. The lower median line stands as a dynamic support. New false breakdowns may announce an oversold. The EUR/USD price dropped to 1.0622 on Friday, registering a fresh multi-week low. After such a plummet, the buyers took the lead and corrected higher. The pair is located at 1.0639 at the time of writing and is struggling to recover. -Are you looking for the best AI Trading Brokers? Check our detailed guide- Despite minor retreats, the downside pressure remains high as the US dollar is still bullish. Fundamentally, the greenback took a hit from the US Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment, which came in at 77.9 points below 79.0 points expected and compared to 79.4 in the previous reporting period. Now, the EUR/USD has dropped again as the US retail sales reported a 0.7% growth, beating the estimated 0.4% growth, while core retail sales registered a 1.1% growth, beating the 0.5% growth forecasted. The greenback is strongly bullish even though the US Empire State Manufacturing Index came in worse than expected, at -14.3 points, versus -5.2 points expected. Later, the US is to release the Business Inventories and NAHB Housing Market Index data. On the other hand, the Eurozone Industrial Production rose by 0.8%, matching expectations. Tomorrow, the ZEW Economic Sentiment and the Canadian inflation figures could have a big impact. Technically, the EUR/USD pair found support right on the descending pitchfork’s lower median line (lml) and tried to rebound. This is dynamic support, and the price could be returned to rechallenge it. -Are you looking for the best MT5 Brokers? Check our detailed guide- Only a new lower low, dropping and closing below 1.0622, activates more declines, a deeper drop. On the contrary, new false breakdowns below the lower median line could announce an oversold situation. Still, a potential reversal is far from being confirmed. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/04/15/eur-usd-price-fails-to-recover-amid-upbeat-us-retail-sales/
2024-04-15 10:33
The USD/JPY pair has risen well past the $152 level. Safe-haven demand for the dollar rose after Iran attacked Israel over the weekend. Investors are now monitoring the $155 level for a possible intervention. The USD/JPY outlook is strongly bullish as the greenback soars after expectations for Fed rate cuts dwindle and the demand for safe-haven assets grows. Investors continued scaling back rate-cut bets after last week’s inflation report. At the same time, Middle East tensions added safe-haven demand for the dollar. -Are you looking for the best AI Trading Brokers? Check our detailed guide- The USD/JPY pair has risen well past the $152 level, raising concerns that Japanese authorities will intervene. The rally started when investors realized the Fed would delay rate cuts until September. Last week’s CPI report significantly boosted the dollar and Treasury yields. As a result, the yen weakened. Notably, Japan’s Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki said they were ready to act to stop further declines in the yen. Consequently, investors are now monitoring the $155 level as the line in the sand. Furthermore, data on sales will show whether consumer spending in the US has increased. Another positive report will likely send the USD/JPY pair higher. Meanwhile, safe-haven demand for the dollar rose after Iran attacked Israel over the weekend. This could mean an escalation of the war into Iran, which has raised concerns in the market. In times of geopolitical uncertainty, investors scramble for safety in safe-haven assets. However, Iran’s attack on Israel caused minor damage. Moreover, Iran has said it has concluded the matter with Israel. USD/JPY key events today US core retail sales Empire State Manufacturing Index US retail sales USD/JPY technical outlook: RSI divergence On the charts, the USD/JPY price has broken out of its tight consolidation, signaling a continuation of the previous bullish trend. The price now sits well above the 30-SMA, and the RSI is nearly overbought. Bulls will likely soon hit the 154.01 resistance level. -Are you looking for the best MT5 Brokers? Check our detailed guide- However, the recent surge shows weaker momentum as the RSI has made a bearish divergence. If it plays out, the price will retest or break below the 30-SMA to retest the 152.00 key level. A retest of the SMA could allow bulls to make another high. However, a break below the SMA would signal a shift in sentiment. Therefore, it would likely lead to lower prices. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/04/15/usd-jpy-outlook-dollar-shines-on-rate-cut-outlook/
2024-04-15 08:42
Data from the US last week indicated higher-than-expected inflation in the country. Investors have pushed back the possible timing for the first Fed cut to July or September. Canada’s economy is deteriorating due to the high borrowing costs. There is more upside potential in the USD/CAD forecast as the Canadian dollar hovers near a five-month low hit on Friday last week. Economic indicators from the US and Canada have supported a rally in the USD/CAD pair as they show a growing divergence in monetary policy outlooks. -Are you looking for the best AI Trading Brokers? Check our detailed guide- Data from the US last week indicated higher-than-expected inflation in the country. Consequently, the Fed will likely wait and watch, keeping interest rates high. Moreover, investors have pushed back the timing for the first cut to July or September. Meanwhile, Canada’s economy is deteriorating due to the high borrowing costs. At the same time, inflation has eased significantly. Higher interest rates have had a bigger negative impact in Canada than in the US. Therefore, there is little stopping the Bank of Canada from starting rate cuts in June. Markets are placing a near 50% chance that the BoC will cut in June. Consequently, interest rates might decline in Canada before they do in the US. This has put the Canadian dollar in a weak position compared to the US dollar. Furthermore, investors expect data on retail sales from the US to show the state of consumer spending. More upbeat data would widen the policy divergence between the Fed and the Bank of Canada. Meanwhile, oil prices fell on Monday despite Iran’s attack on Israel over the weekend. Notably, Israel said the attack caused minor damage. USD/CAD key events today US Core retail sales m/m Empire State Manufacturing Index US retail sales m/m USD/CAD technical forecast: Bullish momentum above 1.3700 On the technical side, the USD/CAD price is on a strong bullish trend. This trend comes after the price broke out of its shallow bullish channel. The break above the channel resistance showed that bulls were ready to make bigger swings above the 30-SMA. At the same time, it indicated a surge in bullish momentum as the RSI rose to the overbought region. -Are you looking for the best MT5 Brokers? Check our detailed guide- Currently, the price sits between the 1.3700 support and the 1.3800 resistance. Given the solid bullish bias, it might reach the resistance level soon. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/04/15/usd-cad-forecast-canadian-dollar-near-recent-5-month-lows/
2024-04-14 10:53
By Friday, investors were still absorbing the US CPI report. Investors believe the Fed will implement the first rate cut in September. Next week, Australia will reveal the state of its labor market. The AUD/USD weekly forecast paints a bearish picture as the US inflation report places the Fed in a more hawkish position than other major central banks. -Are you looking for the best AI Trading Brokers? Check our detailed guide- Ups and downs of AUD/USD The AUD/USD pair closed the week on a bearish candle as the dollar strengthened after an upbeat inflation report. There were no major reports from Australia, meaning the US inflation report was the main catalyst. By Friday, investors were still absorbing the CPI report, which showed inflation at a higher-than-expected 0.4% in March. Before the report, investors were still betting on the first Fed rate cut in June. However, after the report, markets believe the Fed will implement the first cut in September. Still, there is uncertainty about the outlook. Consequently, there is uncertainty about the monetary policy of most major central banks that wait for the Fed to lead the way. Next week’s key events for AUD/USD Next week, the US will release data on retail sales. Meanwhile, Australia will reveal the state of its labor market. Forecasts predict a decline in US sales to 0.3%. This would indicate a drop in consumer spending and demand in the economy. Therefore, it would be a relief for the Fed. However, recent data from the US has consistently come in higher than expected. Therefore, there is a chance the figure will be a surprise. On the other hand, Australia’s employment figures will help shape the outlook for RBA rate cuts. A strong labor market would push back expectations, while weakness would pressure the central bank to cut rates. AUD/USD weekly technical forecast: Bears gear up for another impulse leg The AUD/USD price is bearish on the technical side, sitting below the 22-SMA with the RSI below 50. After a solid bearish move, the price got stuck in a corrective sideways move below the 0.6660 key level. During this consolidation period, the price chopped through the 22-SMA with no clear direction. -Are you looking for the best MT5 Brokers? Check our detailed guide- Moreover, it respected clear support and resistance levels. However, bears are now challenging the support level with a strong candle. This move comes after the price made a bearish engulfing candle at the resistance. If it breaks below the support, it will likely make another strong, bearish move mirroring the previous one. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/04/14/aud-usd-weekly-forecast-aussie-tumbles-amid-dollar-rally/
2024-04-13 08:53
The dollar rallied amid a drop in rate cut expectations. Markets now predict only two Fed rate cuts this year. Next week, investors will focus on retail sales data from the US and the UK. The GBP/USD weekly forecast is pointing southward, with the Fed expected to hang tight before making any moves to slash interest rates. Ups and downs of GBP/USD The GBP/USD pair had a bearish week as the dollar rallied amid a drop in rate cut expectations. The major event this week was the US inflation report. When it came out, investors were surprised by another month of higher-than-expected price growth. Moreover, it came after a blockbuster jobs report showing a robust labor market. -Are you looking for the best AI Trading Brokers? Check our detailed guide- Consequently, there was a sharp adjustment in Fed rate cut expectations. Markets now predict only two rate cuts this year, starting in September. Inflation in the US has proven to be more stubborn than other major economies. This put the dollar in a better position than the pound. Next week’s key events for GBP/USD Next week, investors will focus on retail sales data from the US and the UK. Furthermore, the UK will release data on employment and inflation. All focus will be on the UK CPI report, which will show the state of price growth in the economy. The recent US inflation report has put the GBP/USD pair in a weak position as the timing for the first Fed cut has moved to September. Therefore, traders will wait to see whether the Bank of England will be in a position to cut interest rates before the Fed. A decline in UK inflation would further weaken the GBP/USD pair. GBP/USD weekly technical forecast: Price signals impending rectangle breakout On the technical side, the GBP/USD price is on the verge of breaking out of its rectangle pattern. Moreover, the bias is bearish as the price falls well below the 22-SMA, and the RSI is approaching the oversold region. -Are you looking for the best MT5 Brokers? Check our detailed guide- The previous bullish trend paused when the price reached the 1.2801 key resistance level. It then consolidated with the 1.2801 level as resistance and the 1.2500 level as support. There has been a surge in momentum that has pushed the price to the 0.5 Fib retracement level. If the price closes below the rectangle support, it will likely fall to the 0.618 Fib retracement level. Moreover, the path will be clear for the price to reach the 1.2201 support level. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/04/13/gbp-usd-weekly-forecast-feds-delayed-cut-weighs-on-pound/
