2025-07-10 11:28
The GBP/USD outlook shows a steady pound as market participants watch developments on tariffs. Trump threatened to impose a 50% tariff on copper imports. Traders are waiting for the UK GDP report. The GBP/USD outlook shows a steady pound as market participants watch developments on tariffs. A BoE report revealed that risks to the financial markets remain, especially from US tariffs. Meanwhile, market participants are awaiting the UK GDP report, scheduled for release on Friday. Trump’s recent tariff threats weighed on most major currencies except the pound. The UK has already signed a trade deal with the US that provides it with some protection from higher tariffs. However, the UK economy cannot avoid the global impact of these levies. Trump threatened to impose a 50% tariff on copper imports, which could spark new trade wars. These conflicts are likely to harm the global economy, which includes the UK. A report released by the Bank of England on Thursday revealed concerns about the impact of tariffs. It stated that risks to the financial markets remain high. Therefore, policymakers might prefer caution in the face of uncertainty. However, they might be forced to lower rates further in the event of an economic slowdown. Meanwhile, traders are waiting for the UK GDP report. Economists expect a 0.1% growth compared to the previous 0.3% contraction. GBP/USD key events today US unemployment claims GBP/USD technical outlook: Narrow range points to looming breakout On the technical side, the GBP/USD price has paused at a solid support zone comprising the 1.3600 key level and the 0.5 Fib retracement level. Still, the price has remained below the 30-SMA, with the RSI slightly under 50, supporting a bearish bias. Initially, bears took charge with solid momentum, pushing the price below the 30-SMA. However, this momentum began to fade after the price reached the 1.3600 level. The price started trading in a corrective sideways move, and the SMA line flattened out. This is a sign that neither bears nor bulls are willing to make big swings. It also indicates indecision. However, as he range narrows, the price will soon break above the SMA or below the support zone. An SMA break would signal a shift in sentiment. On the other hand, a break below the support zone would allow GBP/USD to target the 1.3400 support level. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/07/10/gbp-usd-outlook-sterling-steady-as-traders-eye-tariff-talks/
2025-07-10 08:38
The USD/CAD forecast indicates a pause in the dollar’s rally. Treasury yields collapsed after a successful 10-year note auction. Fed policymakers believe rate cuts will be appropriate later in the year. The USD/CAD forecast indicates a pause in the dollar’s rally after a sharp collapse in Treasury yields in the previous session. At the same time, the impacts of Trump’s new tariff threats were fading. Meanwhile, the FOMC minutes revealed that policymakers were ready to lower borrowing costs later in the year. The dollar lost its shine on Thursday as a drop in Treasury yields dragged it down. Yields collapsed after a successful 10-year note auction, which indicated high demand for Treasuries. This was a significant change from earlier in Trump’s administration, when investors were selling America. Meanwhile, Trump’s new tariff threats had little impact on markets. As a result, the dollar was unable to sustain its rally. Despite announcing new tariffs, the US president pushed the deadline to August 1. This gives countries more time to negotiate better trading terms. Additionally, he stated that he was willing to extend this time to facilitate negotiations. Furthermore, although Trump sent letters to some countries, he failed to send them to major ones, such as the Eurozone and India. Elsewhere, the FOMC meeting minutes released on Wednesday revealed that policymakers believe rate cuts will be appropriate later in the year. This indicated a more dovish tone that weighed on the dollar. USD/CAD key events today US unemployment claims USD/CAD technical forecast: 1.3700 resistance triggers retreat On the technical side, the USD/CAD price is pulling back after meeting the key resistance level at 1.3700. It trades above the 30-SMA with the RSI above 50, supporting a bullish bias. Therefore, the pullback might only retest the SMA before bulls regain momentum. The trend recently changed direction when bulls pushed above the 30-SMA and the bearish trendline. At the same time, the price broke above the previous high to make a new high. However, bulls have met solid resistance at the 1.3700 key level. This has allowed bears to trigger a retreat. The bullish bias will remain if the price stays above the SMA. Moreover, USD/CAD is likely to bounce higher and retest the 1.3700 resistance. However, if the SMA gives way, the price will drop to retest the 1.3550 support level. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/07/10/usd-cad-forecast-yield-slump-puts-brakes-on-dollars-rally/
2025-07-09 10:18
The USD/JPY forecast indicates brief relief for the yen after a steep decline. The yen has weakened significantly following Trump’s announcement of a 25% tariff on Japanese goods. Market participants are awaiting the release of the FOMC meeting minutes. The USD/JPY forecast indicates brief relief for the yen after a steep decline due to tariff concerns. However, the outlook for Japan’s economy has darkened following Trump’s threat of a 25% reciprocal tariff. The yen has weakened significantly this week following Trump’s announcement of a 25% tariff on Japanese goods, effective from August. The move came after trade talks between the US and Japan failed. Market participants are concerned that this could be the start of a trade war between the two partners. Such an outcome would hurt both economies and weaken their currencies. However, at the moment, the dollar is rallying at the prospect of higher import costs. These might translate to higher inflation, forcing the Fed to keep interest rates high. Furthermore, Trump has threatened a 50% tariff on copper imports that would again ignite tensions with many countries. In the short term, tariffs might be bullish for the dollar. However, in the long run, they might dim the outlook for the US economy and hurt its currency. Elsewhere, market participants are awaiting the release of the FOMC meeting minutes. The report might contain clues about future policy moves. However, with tariff uncertainty, the outlook might become less clear. USD/JPY key events today FOMC Meeting Minutes USD/JPY technical forecast: Rally pauses for breath at the 147.01 level On the technical side, the USD/JPY price has finally paused its steep rally near the 147.01 key level. However, the bullish bias remains strong, with the price well above the 30-SMA and the RSI near the overbought region. After such a strong move, bulls have paused for a breath at this level. Therefore, the price might consolidate as the SMA catches up. At the same time, it might pull back to retest the SMA as support. The bullish bias will remain as long as it stays above the SMA. After a pause, bulls might regain momentum to break past the 147.01 level for a new high. Such a move would allow USD/JPY to retest the 148.02 key resistance. A break above would solidify the bullish bias. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/07/09/usd-jpy-forecast-yen-briefly-rebounds-after-steep-fall/
2025-07-09 09:44
The GBP/USD price analysis shows increased demand for the pound. The US president announced a 25% reciprocal tariff on Japan and South Korea. Trump threatened to impose a 50% tariff on copper imports. The GBP/USD price analysis shows increased demand for the pound over other currencies amid renewed Trump tariff threats. Sterling has an edge because the UK is among the few countries that have already signed trade deals with the US. Therefore, it serves as a shelter for traders fleeing higher tariffs in other countries, such as Japan. The pound gained against the dollar on Tuesday and Wednesday after Trump resumed his tariff threats. The US president announced a 25% reciprocal tariff on Japan and South Korea. The two countries failed to reach a trade deal with the US. Moreover, Trump has stated that he will send letters to additional countries that have been unable to get a deal within the 90-day period. Furthermore, the US president threatened to impose a 50% tariff on copper imports. He also threatened tariffs on pharmaceuticals and semiconductors. These threats raised concerns about potential trade wars that could harm the global economy. However, for the pound, it was a time to shine. The UK is among the few countries that have signed a deal with the US. Therefore, it has more protection against higher tariffs, giving it an edge over other countries. Market participants are still hoping for more deals before August 1, when the higher tariffs will come into effect. GBP/USD key events today FOMC Meeting Minutes GBP/USD technical price analysis: Price stalls near the 1.3601 key level On the technical side, the GBP/USD price has stalled near the 1.3601 key level. It trades below the 30-SMA, with the RSI under 50, supporting a bearish bias. Sentiment recently shifted after bulls failed to break above the 1.3750 resistance level. Although the price made a higher high, the RSI made a lower one, signalling weaker momentum. As a result, bears took charge by breaking below the SMA. However, they have found it challenging to go beyond the 1.3601 support level. Although the price recently broke below the support, it has remained attached to it. The price must detach from this level and make lower lows and highs, to continue the downtrend. This would allow USD/JPY to retest the 1.3400 support. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/07/09/gbp-usd-price-analysis-pound-recovers-amid-renewed-tariffs/
2025-07-08 11:42
The USD/JPY price analysis indicates growing concerns about the state of Japan’s economy. Trump sent letters to some countries, including Japan and South Korea, notifying them of higher tariffs. Some major partners, such as the European Union, may not face higher tariffs. The USD/JPY price analysis indicates growing concerns about the state of Japan’s economy following Trump’s announcement of a 25% tariff on its goods, effective in August. The move came after the US and Japan failed to reach a deal before the reciprocal tariff deadline. However, Japan seems willing to continue negotiations. On Monday, the US president sent letters to some countries, including Japan and South Korea, notifying them of higher tariffs. The move came after the US failed to reach trade agreements with these countries in the 90-day window. However, some major partners, such as the European Union, may not suffer the tariffs since they believe they can reach a deal before the deadline on Wednesday. Meanwhile, Japan might suffer a 25% levy on its exports to the US starting in August. The US and Japan have held trade talks that, unfortunately, have not yielded a deal. If this remains the case, the export-reliant economy could suffer significantly due to the higher tariffs. Moreover, it could increase trade tensions between the two countries. Such an outcome would affect both economies. However, there is still hope of a deal before August that could boost relations and revive the sinking yen. USD/JPY key events today Traders do not expect any key releases from Japan or the US. Therefore, they will focus on trade developments. USD/JPY technical price analysis: New swing high confirms bullish trend On the technical side, the USD/JPY price has reached new highs after a sharp rally that broke above the key 145.00 resistance level. The new swing occurred after bulls took charge, pushing the price above the 30-SMA. Now the price has made a higher high and low, confirming a new direction. Meanwhile, the RSI trades in the overbought region, indicating solid bullish momentum. However, after such a swing, the price might need to pause and breathe before climbing higher. A deep pullback would retest the 145.00 level or the 30-SMA. If the price stays above the SMA, it will target the 148.02 resistance level. A break above this level would solidify the bullish trend. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/07/08/usd-jpy-price-analysis-tarriffs-trigger-economic-woes-for-japan/
2025-07-08 09:53
The AUD/USD outlook shows a sharp rebound in the Australian dollar. The Reserve Bank of Australia stunned markets by keeping interest rates unchanged. Trump sent out tariff letters to some of the US’s major trading partners. The AUD/USD outlook shows a sharp rebound in the Australian dollar after a surprise pause by the RBA. Meanwhile, market participants remain cautious after Trump sent out letters, increasing tariffs on 14 countries. The Reserve Bank of Australia stunned markets by keeping interest rates unchanged on Tuesday. Economists and market participants were almost fully expecting a 25-bps rate cut. However, policymakers said they needed more time to assess the state of inflation before cutting rates. As a result, traders are pricing an 88% chance of a cut in August. All signs had pointed to a rate cut this week. The economy was weak, and inflation had eased significantly. If this trend continues, the central bank is likely to cut during its next meeting. Elsewhere, Trump sent out tariff letters to some of the US’s major trading partners, including Japan. The move has increased concerns about higher global tariffs, which will further harm the global economy. At the same time, these tariffs may exacerbate the slowdown in the US economy, prompting the Fed to lower borrowing costs. Nevertheless, market reaction remains muted at the moment. AUD/USD key events today Traders don’t expect key releases from Australia or the US. Therefore, they will continue to digest the RBA decision. AUD/USD technical outlook: Bulls re-emerge to challenge the SMA On the technical side, the AUD/USD price has bounced back sharply to retest the 30-SMA resistance. Initially, a sharp decline briefly pushed the price below a solid support zone comprising the 0.382 Fib level and the 0.6500 psychological level. However, bears were not strong enough to sustain the move. As a result, the price rose back above the zone and is now retesting the SMA. Meanwhile, the RSI has broken above 50, into bullish territory. If bulls maintain their momentum, the price is likely to break above the SMA. Such a move would indicate a shift in sentiment. Moreover, it would allow AUD/USD to retest the 0.6590 resistance level. However, if the SMA holds firm, bears will remain in the lead. Therefore, the sellers will likely retest the support zone. A lower low would strengthen the bearish bias. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/07/08/aud-usd-outlook-aussie-dollar-surges-on-surprise-rba-pause/
