2024-03-28 10:22

Fed’s Waller said the recent inflation readings support a delay in rate cuts. The likelihood of a Fed rate cut in June has fallen to 60%. BoE’s Jonathan Haskel warned against expecting early rate cuts. The GBP/USD outlook is bearish as the dollar gains strength amidst fading expectations of a Fed rate cut. Moreover, market participants are gearing up for more economic data from the US that might give clues on Fed rate cuts. -Are you interested in learning about the best AI trading forex brokers? Click here for details- The dollar strengthened after Fed Governor Christopher Waller said the recent inflation readings support a delay in Fed rate cuts. Notably, some policymakers have lost confidence in the progress of inflation after the last report beat forecasts. As a result, investors are also doubting whether the Fed will be able to implement three rate cuts. The likelihood of a rate cut in June has fallen to 60%, boosting the dollar. However, this figure could change as more data comes in. The US will release data on GDP and jobless claims. However, the focus is on Friday’s core PCE report, which will show the state of inflation. Another higher-than-expected inflation figure could further strengthen the dollar, as it would diminish rate-cut expectations. Moreover, markets might price in less than three cuts in 2024. Meanwhile, the Bank of England has assumed a more dovish stance. However, some policymakers still believe rate cuts are a long way off. BoE’s Jonathan Haskel warned against expecting early rate cuts. According to him, although headline inflation has dropped, the BoE is focused on persistent and underlying inflation, which remains high. Therefore, June might be too early for the central bank to start easing its monetary policy. Markets currently expect the first cut to be in June or August. GBP/USD key events today US final quarter-on-quarter GDP US initial jobless claims US pending home sales US consumer sentiment GBP/USD technical outlook: Price dips following 1.2650 resistance On the charts, the GBP/USD price is declining after retesting and respecting the 1.2650 key resistance level. The bearish bias is strong as the price has established its downtrend with lower highs and lows. At the same time, it is now respecting the 30-SMA as resistance and might soon swing well below the line. -Are you interested in learning about the forex indicators? Click here for details- Meanwhile, the RSI is in bearish territory, below 50. Therefore, bears might soon make another lower low. The next immediate target for the downtrend is at the 1.2550 support level. The decline will continue below this level if the price stays below the SMA. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/03/28/gbp-usd-outlook-fed-rate-cut-expectations-decline/

2024-03-28 09:27

The gold price bias is bullish, despite the last retreat. The US data should bring high action today. The upper median line (uml) is seen as a potential target. The gold price is trading in the green at $2,195 at the time of writing, with a fresh top in sight. XAU/USD extended its growth even though the US dollar jumped higher. -Are you interested in learning about the best AI trading forex brokers? Click here for details- Today, the fundamentals should move the prices, so uncertainty remains prevalent. The US Final GDP is expected to report a 3.2% growth again, and Claims could jump from 210K to 212K in the previous week. Pending Home Sales may report 1.4% growth after a 4.9% drop in the previous reporting period, while Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment is expected at 76.5 in March. Furthermore, the Chicago PMI could jump from 44.0 points to 45.9 points, which could be good for the greenback, while the Final GDP Price Index may announce a 1.6% growth. Positive US data should help the USD appreciate versus all its rivals. This scenario could punish the price of gold. Tomorrow, the Japanese and US data should move the prices. From a technical point of view, the XAU/USD came back higher after ending its temporary correction. After the previous rally, the prices retraced some gains. -Are you interested in learning about the forex indicators? Click here for details- The precious metal dropped within a down-channel pattern, which represented a bullish continuation formation. The XAU/USD rallied again after escaping from this pattern. It has retested the median line (ml), confirming this line as a dynamic support. As long as it stays above it, the bias is bullish. The upside pressure is high, so the price could try to approach the weekly R1 (2,210) and the upper median line. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/03/28/gold-price-retains-momentum-near-2200-ahead-of-us-gdp/

2024-03-28 08:31

The yen recovered as investors became cautious amid intervention warnings. Masato Kanda warned that authorities would do everything necessary to support the yen. Economists believe the US GDP will hold at 3.2%. The USD/JPY forecast leans slightly bearish as Japan’s intervention warnings breathe new life into the yen. After hitting a 34-year low on Wednesday, the yen recovered as investors became cautious amid warnings from Japanese authorities. -Are you interested in learning about the best AI trading forex brokers? Click here for details- Notably, the yen has weakened sharply since the Bank of Japan shifted its monetary policy by hiking interest rates. This weakness came as markets realized that the shift in policy would be slow and gradual. Consequently, the gap in interest rates between the US and Japan will remain significant. Still, Japanese policymakers believe the market reaction is exaggerated. Therefore, a number of top officials have come out to warn markets against sharp declines in Japan’s currency. On Wednesday, top currency diplomat Masato Kanda warned that authorities would do everything necessary to stop further sharp currency moves. However, current fundamentals show a possible further downside for the currency. A slow hiking cycle would keep the yen vulnerable as other major central banks maintain higher interest rates. Additionally, inflation might miss BoJ forecasts as economists expect a drop in Tokyo’s inflation. Therefore, there is a big chance that Japan will step in to support its weak currency. On the other hand, the dollar was steady on Thursday as investors prepared for more economic data. The US will release data on economic growth and unemployment claims. Economists believe the US GDP will hold at 3.2%. A higher-than-expected figure could push USD/JPY higher. USD/JPY key events today US final GDP q/q US unemployment claims US pending home sales m/m US consumer sentiment USD/JPY technical forecast: Bears signal a looming takeover On the technical side, the USD/JPY price is retreating after nearing the 152.01 key resistance level. Moreover, bears are attempting a takeover that would see the price decline. The bullish trend weakened when the price neared 152.01. Notably, the price started trading near the 30-SMA support, and the RSI showed a bearish divergence. -Are you interested in learning about the forex indicators? Click here for details- Furthermore, bears showed strength when the price made a solid bearish engulfing candle that broke below the 30-SMA. At the moment, the price is still retesting the recently broken SMA. If bears are ready to take over, the price will soon retest to the 150.00 key support level, which is near the 0.382 Fib retracement level. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/03/28/usd-jpy-forecast-japans-intervention-warnings-boost-yen/

2024-03-27 12:29

Despite the upbeat Spanish CPI, the EUR/USD price remains under selling pressure. Markets await the Final US GDP Price Index for fresh momentum. Technically, the 1.0800 level provides strong support. The EUR/USD price remained bearish on Wednesday despite minor rebounds. The pair is trading at 1.0820 at the time of writing. The bearish trend remains dominating amid a stronger dollar. -Are you interested in learning about the best AI trading forex brokers? Click here for details- The greenback remains bullish despite some poor US economic data reported yesterday. The CB Consumer Confidence came in at 104.7 points below 106.9 points expected and under 104.8 in the previous reporting period. Richmond Manufacturing Index was reported at -11 points versus the -5 estimated, HPI dropped by 0.1% even if the traders expected a 0.2% growth, while the S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI matched expectations. Furthermore, the Durable and Core Durable Orders came in better than expected. Today, the Spanish Flash CPI came in better than expected, but the EUR could not capitalize on it. The German Retail Sales and German Unemployment Change could bring life to the EUR/USD pair tomorrow. The US will release Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment, Pending Home Sales, Final GDP, Unemployment Claims, Chicago PMI, and Final GDP Price Index. Positive economic data lifts the greenback. Technically, the currency pair rebounded after failing to reach the 1.08 psychological level or to stay below the descending pitchfork’s median line (ml). The rebound was temporary as the price couldn’t stay above the weekly pivot point of 1.0850. -Are you interested in learning about the forex indicators? Click here for details- After the minor rally, a retreat could be natural as the price could try to retest the support levels and demand zones to accumulate bullish energy and buyers. We have a strong demand zone above the 1.08 psychological level. Retesting this zone and printing only false breakdowns should trigger a new bullish momentum. Dropping and closing below 1.08 and under the median line (ml) may ignite further declines. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/03/27/eur-usd-price-looking-to-pierce-1-08-eyes-on-us-gdp/

2024-03-27 10:49

BoC’s Carolyn Rogers urged businesses to increase productivity by supporting investment. Data from Canada revealed a 0.8% increase in wholesale trade in February. The dollar was steady as investors prepared for more inflation data this week. The USD/CAD forecast turns bullish today as the Canadian dollar is losing ground, spurred by the Bank of Canada’s observation of persistently low productivity in Canada. Moreover, the loonie weakened alongside plummeting oil prices. -Are you interested in learning about the best AI trading forex brokers? Click here for details- BoC’s Carolyn Rogers said that Canada’s economy was vulnerable to inflation due to low productivity. Therefore, she urged businesses to increase productivity by supporting investment. Moreover, the BoC expects little growth in the economy this year. It is very difficult for a central bank to control inflation when the economy is weak. The best weapon against inflation is high interest rates. However, if the economy is weak, higher borrowing costs could lead to a recession before inflation gets to the central bank’s target. Meanwhile, data from Canada revealed a 0.8% increase in wholesale trade in February. Furthermore, USD/CAD rose as oil prices declined. This decline came due to a surge in US crude inventories, which reflects weaker demand. Additionally, investors do not expect any policy changes when the OPEC group meets next week. Elsewhere, the dollar was steady as investors prepared for more inflation data this week. The core PCE price index will likely cause a lot of volatility as it will shape the Fed’s rate-cut outlook. USD/CAD key events today No major events are coming from Canada or the US today. As a result, the pair will likely consolidate. USD/CAD technical forecast: Price faces 1.3600 hurdle following 30-SMA rebound On the charts, the USD/CAD price is facing the 1.3600 barrier again after finding support at the 30-SMA. At the same time, the price bounced off the 0.382 Fib retracement level and might make a new high. The return of bulls at the SMA line confirms a strong bullish bias. Meanwhile, the RSI, which trades above 50, supports solid bullish momentum. -Are you interested in learning about the forex indicators? Click here for details- Therefore, bulls will likely attempt to break above the 1.3600 key resistance level. A break above would allow the price to start trending after a period of consolidation. On the other hand, if the 1.3600 resistance holds firm as it has done before, the price will likely fall back to the 1.3475 support. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/03/27/usd-cad-forecast-bank-of-canada-flags-low-productivity/

2024-03-27 08:32

Australia’s headline inflation figure rose by 3.4% in February. The chances of an RBA rate cut in August have risen to 68%. There is a 71% chance that the Fed will start cutting interest rates in June. Today’s AUD/USD price analysis shows a slight bearish tilt following the release of data showing Australia’s inflation missed forecasts. This revelation has sparked speculation that the Reserve Bank of Australia might be inclined to initiate rate cuts as early as August. -Are you interested in learning about the best AI trading forex brokers? Click here for details- Australia’s headline inflation figure rose by 3.4% in February, holding steady from January. Meanwhile, economists had expected inflation to rise by 3.5%. However, underlying inflation remained high, showing inflation was still persistent. As a result, the Australian dollar fell briefly before recovering. The Reserve Bank of Australia recently assumed a less hawkish stance due to the decline in inflation. Moreover, Australia’s economy has slowed down due to the high-interest rates. As a result, the chances of an RBA rate cut in August have risen to 68%. Still, this would put the RBA among the last major central banks to hike. Therefore, it gives the Australian dollar an edge over its peers. Notably, there is a 71% chance that the Fed will start cutting interest rates in June. This is much earlier than the RBA. However, the dollar has remained strong as data contradicts the rate-cut outlook. Although Powell maintains that the Fed will cut rates three times this year, data on inflation and economic performance suggest otherwise. Consequently, there is a bit of uncertainty regarding the rate-cut outlook. AUD/USD key events today Traders will keep absorbing Australia’s CPI report as there are no more key events scheduled for today. AUD/USD technical price analysis: Price retreats after failed 30-SMA break On the technical side, AUD/USD bounced lower after failing to break above the 30-SMA. At the same time, the RSI respected the 50 mark as resistance and bounced lower. This is a sign that bears are not ready to give up control. However, bears have also weakened as the price is now making small-bodied candles. -Are you interested in learning about the forex indicators? Click here for details- Moreover, the decline has failed to break below a solid support zone comprising the 0.6520 key level and its bullish channel support. The price bounces higher every time it gets to this zone. Therefore, there is a high chance that bulls will soon retest the 30-SMA with the aim of breaking above and retesting the channel resistance. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/03/27/aud-usd-price-analysis-australias-inflation-below-expectations/