2024-03-21 10:08

On Tuesday, the Bank of Japan hiked interest rates for the first time in 17 years. BoJ governor Kazuo Ueda vowed to maintain ultra-easy monetary conditions. The dollar was weak after Powell held on to his dovish stance. Today’s USD/JPY outlook is bullish, with the yen weakening in response to BoJ Governor Ueda’s pledge to bolster the economy, meaning the continuation of ultra-easy monetary conditions. Moreover, despite the recent shift in policy, markets expect the BoJ to slow down on further rate hikes. -Are you interested in learning about the Bitcoin price prediction? Click here for details- On Tuesday, the Bank of Japan hiked interest rates for the first time in 17 years. This was a monumental shift from years of negative interest rates and a dovish stance. However, investors had already priced in such a move. Consequently, the yen plunged after the policy meeting and has weakened. Furthermore, despite the rate hike on Tuesday, BoJ governor Kazuo Ueda vowed to keep ultra-easy monetary conditions to support the economy. Still, he noted that inflation was rising and the central bank would hike again if necessary. Additionally, markets now see a slower-than-expected BoJ hiking cycle. A more aggressive shift would have supported Japan’s currency. However, the yen has weakened despite recent dollar weakness. This weakness has raised concerns in Japan, with the Finance Minister warning that the government was closely monitoring FX markets. On the other hand, the dollar was weak after Powell held on to his dovish stance. Notably, the Fed held rates at the meeting and projected resilient economic performance in 2024. Moreover, Powell maintained that the central bank will cut three times this year. Initially, the dollar weakened, allowing the yen to recover. However, this was only temporary. USD/JPY key events today US initial jobless claims US flash manufacturing PMI US flash services PMI USD/JPY technical outlook: Buyers emerge after 150.75 retest. On the technical side, USD/JPY is in a strong bullish trend, with the price staying above the 30-SMA. Meanwhile, the RSI has continuously risen since it broke above 50, reaching the overbought region. The price recently broke above a strong resistance level at 150.75 and has pulled back to retest the level. -Are you interested in learning about the forex signals telegram group? Click here for details- At the moment, the price is bouncing higher after retesting the 150.75 key level. Therefore, it might make a higher high. The next strong resistance is at the 1.272 Fib extension and 152.00 key levels. The price could pause or break above this level. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/03/21/usd-jpy-outlook-uedas-support-pledge-weakens-yen/

2024-03-21 08:44

Australia’s employment surged while the unemployment rate fell in February. Markets expect 37bps in cuts from the RBA, down from 44bps. The Fed kept its outlook for 3 rate cuts in 2024. The AUD/USD forecast points firmly upwards after Australia recorded the largest monthly employment gain in a decade. At the same time, the dollar weakened after the Fed maintained its rate cut outlook despite the recent hot inflation figures. -Are you interested in learning about the Bitcoin price prediction? Click here for details- Australia’s labor market showed massive strength in February. Employment surged while the unemployment rate fell. Notably, jobs in the country rose by 116,500 in February. This was a significant increase from the 15,200 gain in the previous month. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate dropped from 4.1% to 3.7%. Australia’s labor market had shown weakness in January, leading to increased bets for an RBA cut. Consequently, policymakers were less hawkish at the policy meeting on Tuesday. However, the Wednesday report revealed that labour market demand remains high. As a result, markets now expect 37bps in cuts from the RBA. Before the data, this figure was at 44 bps. Meanwhile, the dollar was subdued after the FOMC meeting, where the central bank held rates. After the recent inflation figures, there was speculation that policymakers would be less dovish. However, Powell maintained his dovish stance, saying inflation was still in a downtrend. Therefore, the Fed kept its outlook for 3 rate cuts in 2024. Meanwhile, economic projections showed expectations for a strong economy in 2024. AUD/USD key events today US unemployment claims US flash manufacturing PMI US flash services PMI AUD/USD technical forecast: Price soars above 30-SMA On the technical side, AUD/USD has had a sharp bullish reversal and now sits well above the 30-SMA. At the same time, the RSI has shot up to the overbought region, showing solid bullish momentum. Initially, bears had been in control of the market. However, bulls took over before the price got to the 0.6500 key support level. -Are you interested in learning about the forex signals telegram group? Click here for details- The takeover was sharp and steep, and the price quickly approached the 0.6650 key resistance level. If the current bullish leg mirrors the previous one, the price might break above the 0.6650 key resistance level. In such a case, the bullish trend would continue higher. However, if the resistance holds firm, the price might fall to retest the 30-SMA. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/03/21/aud-usd-forecast-aus-employment-jumps-to-10-yr-top/

2024-03-20 12:24

The bias is bearish as long as it stays below the immediate downtrend line. The FOMC should bring high volatility. Taking out the downtrend line indicates an upside continuation. The gold price is trading in the red at $2,152 at the time of writing. The precious metal seems determined to extend its sell-off. One significant factor contributing to gold’s weakness is the dollar’s outperformance in the wake of the FOMC rate decision and monetary policy statement. -Are you interested in learning about the Bitcoin price prediction? Click here for details- Yesterday, the BOJ delivered a 0.20% rate hike, so the BOJ Policy Rate jumped from -0.10% to 0.10%, while the RBA left the monetary policy unchanged. Furthermore, the Canadian CPI reported a 0.3% growth versus the estimated 0.6% growth, but it was above the 0.0% growth in the previous reporting period. Gold remains under pressure also because the US Building Permits and Housing Starts came in better than expected. Today, the United Kingdom Consumer Price Index reported only a 3.4% growth versus the 3.5% growth estimated after the 4.0% growth in the previous reporting period. At the same time, Core CPI came in worse than expected as well. Later, the FOMC should drive the markets. The FED is expected to keep the Federal Funds Rate at 5.50%, but the FOMC Statement and the FOMC Press Conference should bring high volatility. Technically, the price retested the downtrend line, which is a dynamic resistance. As long as it stays below it, the metal could drop deeper. -Are you interested in learning about the forex signals telegram group? Click here for details- The former lows of $2,148 and $2,146 represent immediate downside obstacles. Making a new lower low could activate more declines. The channel’s downside line is seen as a potential target if the rate continues to drop. On the contrary, staying above $2,146 and making a valid breakout through the downtrend line indicates that the correction ended and that we may have an upside continuation. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/03/20/gold-price-turns-bearish-near-2150-ahead-of-fomc/

2024-03-20 10:13

Market participants are focused on the Fed policy meeting. Markets expect the Fed to cut rates by a total of 73 bps this year. ECB’s Martins Kazaks said he supports market expectations for three cuts in 2024. Today’s EUR/USD forecast paints a picture of bearish sentiment as the dollar flexes its muscles in anticipation of the upcoming FOMC policy meeting. Meanwhile, ECB policymakers are getting more comfortable with the market’s rate-cut expectations, weakening the euro. -Are you interested in learning about the Bitcoin price prediction? Click here for details- Market participants are focused on the Fed policy meeting, which concludes later in the day. The Fed will likely hold rates at current levels, but the focus will be on the press conference and the economic projections. Investors are eager to hear what policymakers will say regarding the recent inflation figures. Powell’s press conference might shed light on the outlook for rate cuts in 2024, which has changed significantly since the start of the year. At the moment, markets expect the Fed to cut rates by a total of 73 bps this year. This is a big drop from 150 bps at the start of the year. If policymakers take on a hawkish tone, this figure could further decline. Moreover, investors might push expectations for the first rate cut to July. On the other hand, European Central Bank policymakers are ready for the first rate cut in June. Notably, ECB policymaker Martins Kazaks said on Tuesday that he supported market expectations for three cuts in 2024. The outlook for interest rate cuts seems much clearer in the Eurozone than in the US. While ECB policymakers are ready for cuts, Fed policymakers could remain cautious amid high inflation. Consequently, EUR/USD could witness more declines. EUR/USD key events today Federal Funds Rate FOMC Economic Projections FOMC Statement FOMC Press Conference EUR/USD technical forecast: Channel breakout On the charts, the EUR/USD trend has reversed from bullish to bearish. The bears confirmed the new direction when they broke out of their bullish channel. Moreover, the price retested the channel support before making lower lows. -Are you interested in learning about the forex signals telegram group? Click here for details- At the same time, the 30-SMA now faces down, showing a downtrend. Meanwhile, the RSI trades in bearish territory below 50, indicating solid bearish momentum. The price was ready to reverse when it met the 1.0950 barrier. It made a double top before breaking below the SMA and the bullish channel. Given the strong bearish bias, the price might soon retest the 1.0800 key support level. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/03/20/eur-usd-forecast-dollar-gains-as-investors-await-fomc/

2024-03-20 08:40

The dollar is gaining ground as traders prepare for the outcome of the FOMC policy meeting. Markets expect the Fed to hold rates at Wednesday’s meeting. Data on Tuesday revealed a significant decline in Canada’s inflation. The USD/CAD price analysis is bullish on Wednesday, with the greenback on the front foot ahead of the FOMC meeting. Meanwhile, the Canadian dollar faces headwinds as recent data exposed a notable slump in inflation. -Are you interested in learning about the Bitcoin price prediction? Click here for details- Markets expect the Fed to hold rates at today’s meeting. At the same time, there is speculation that policymakers will push back expectations for rate cuts after the recent hot inflation figures. Consequently, the dollar has remained steady since last week. Additionally, investors have scaled back expectations for the first cut in June. Bets fell significantly after Goldman Sachs said it expected 3 Fed cuts this year, down from 4. As a result, the chances of a cut in June fell below 50%. Meanwhile, the situation in Canada is quite different. Data on Tuesday revealed a significant decline in inflation. Notably, annual inflation fell to 2.8% while core figures hit a 2-year low. This was a big divergence from the US. After the report, the chances of a June cut by the Bank of Canada rose from 50% to 75%. Canada’s economy is weakening. Therefore, if the BoC delays cuts beyond June, it could further hurt the economy. However, if they cut before the Fed, it could significantly weaken the Canadian dollar and negatively impact the economy. USD/CAD key events today Federal Funds Rate FOMC Economic Projections FOMC Statement FOMC Press Conference USD/CAD technical price analysis: Bearish engulfer signals a reversal On the technical side, the bias for USD/CAD is bullish as the price has risen to retest the 1.3600 key resistance level. At the same time, it trades well above the 30-SMA with the RSI above 50, a sign that bulls are in the lead. Bulls took control when the price failed to trade below the 1.3450 key support level. They pushed above the 30-SMA and the 1.3525 resistance, making higher highs and lows. -Are you interested in learning about the forex signals telegram group? Click here for details- However, price action at the 1.3600 key level shows that bears might take over soon. The price has made a bearish engulfing candle that could lead to a break below the 30-SMA to retest the 1.3450 support level. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/03/20/usd-cad-price-analysis-loonie-weakens-after-downbeat-inflation/

2024-03-19 12:18

The USD/CAD bias is bullish despite minor retreats. The false breakouts signaled exhausted buyers. The Canadian inflation data should bring sharp movements. The USD/CAD price is trading at 1.3567 at the time of writing. The pair seems overbought in the short term. The greenback remains strong which dominates the currency market. -Are you interested in learning about the Bitcoin price prediction? Click here for details- The price increased even though the Canadian IPPI and RMPI came in better than expected yesterday. On the contrary, the US NAHB Housing Market Index also came in better than expected. The USD appreciated versus its rivals after the US reported higher inflation in February. Today, the Canadian inflation figures could be decisive. The Consumer Price Index is expected to report a 0.6% growth in February versus a 0.0% growth in January. In addition, the Core CPI, Median CPI, Trimmed CPI, and Common CPI data will also be released. Higher inflation could lift the CAD. On the other hand, the US is to release the Building Permits indicator, which is expected at 1.50M above 1.47M in the previous reporting period, while Housing Starts could jump from 1.33M to 1.43 M. The FED will keep the monetary policy tomorrow, but the FOMC Press Conference should shake the markets. Technically, the USD/CAD price developed a strong upward movement after registering a false breakdown with a great fall below the 1.3430 static support. -Are you interested in learning about the forex signals telegram group? Click here for details- Now, it has reached the median line (ml) of the ascending pitchfork, representing a dynamic resistance. The false breakout through this line and above the weekly R1 of 1.3573 signaled exhausted buyers and indicated a potential sell-off. After such impressive growth, a correction could be expected. The price could come back down, trying to accumulate more bullish energy before developing a new bullish momentum. Taking out the median line (ml) and creating a new higher high activates an upside continuation. The bias is bullish in the short term despite minor retreats. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/03/19/usd-cad-price-pauses-by-1-3580-focus-on-canadian-cpi/