2024-02-17 20:39

Investors scaled back their expectations for rate cuts in the US. The US retail sales figure was much lower than expected, showing poor consumer spending. Wholesale inflation in the US beat forecasts. The USD/CAD weekly forecast paints a bullish picture, fueled by a decreasing probability of early Fed rate cuts, thanks to unwavering US inflation. Ups and downs of USD/CAD The pair fluctuated throughout the week, ending slightly higher. When the week began, the US released its consumer inflation report, which beat forecasts. As a result, investors scaled back their expectations for rate cuts in the US. Moreover, the likelihood of the first cut in June went up. Consequently, the dollar soared, pushing the pair higher. –Are you interested to learn more about automated forex trading? Check our detailed guide- However, on Thursday, the US retail sales figure was much lower than expected, showing poor consumer spending. A slowdown in the economy supports rate-cut bets. Still, as the week ended, there was another surge in the dollar as wholesale inflation in the US beat forecasts. Persistent inflation will likely encourage the Fed to hold high-interest rates. Next week’s key events for USD/CAD The US will release the FOMC meeting minutes, likely containing clues on the timing for Fed rate cuts. Meanwhile, Canada will release major reports on inflation and retail sales. Like most major central banks, the Bank of Canada has pushed back market expectations of looming rate cuts, stating that inflation is still high. Therefore, next week’s inflation report will significantly impact the outlook for the bank’s policy. A higher-than-expected figure will likely mean a delay in rate cuts, boosting the Canadian dollar. Meanwhile, a drop in inflation would increase rate-cut bets, weighing on the Canadian dollar. USD/CAD weekly technical forecast: Bulls under pressure at 50% retracement On the technical side, USD/CAD is bullish, with the price slightly above the 22-SMA and the RSI slightly above 50. The bullish move started when the price sharply reversed at the 1.3200 support level. However, bulls weakened after the price retraced 50% of the previous move. –Are you interested to learn more about forex signals? Check our detailed guide- Notably, the price started consolidating, sticking close to the 22-SMA. Consequently, it is trapped between the Fib level and the SMA. Bulls are struggling to push above the 0.5 Fib retracement level. If they fail, the price will likely break below the SMA to continue the previous bearish move. However, if bulls regain momentum, the price will break above the Fib level to retrace 100% of the previous move. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/02/17/usd-cad-weekly-forecast-hot-us-cpi-dims-early-rate-cut-bets/

2024-02-16 13:26

The USD needs positive data to be able to take the lead again. A new lower low activates more declines. The US figures should shake the markets today. The USD/CAD price tumbled on Friday, reaching today’s low of 1.3466. The pair has rebounded and is trading at 1.3475 at the time of writing. –Are you interested to learn more about forex options trading? Check our detailed guide- The price seems undecided as the traders wait for the US economic figures before taking action again. Yesterday, the currency pair slipped as the Retail Sales reported a 0.8% drop versus the 0.2% drop expected after a 0.4% growth in the previous reporting period. The Core Retail Sales registered a 0.6% drop even though the traders expected a 0.2% growth. Furthermore, the Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization rate also came in worse than expected. Today, the US economic data should have a big impact again. The PPI is expected to report a 0.1% growth. The Core PPI could announce a 0.1% growth, while the Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment may jump from 79.0 to 80.0 points. In addition, the Building Permits and Housing Starts data will be released as well. Positive US data boosts the greenback. Technically, a correction was bound to happen after such an impressive rally after the US inflation figures. The price found demand right below the weekly pivot point of 1.3471 and under the descending pitchfork’s median line (ml). The downside pressure remains high despite minor rebounds. -If you are interested in knowing about scalping forex brokers, then read our guidelines to get started- The dollar’s deeper correction should send the pair toward new lows. Taking out the median line and making a new lower low activates more declines. On the contrary, staying above the weekly pivot point (1.3471) and making a new higher high confirms an upside movement in the short term. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/02/16/usd-cad-price-stuck-near-daily-lows-eyes-on-us-ppi/

2024-02-16 10:30

Investors exercised caution ahead of the US wholesale inflation report. USD/JPY fell after the US retail sales report missed forecasts. Japanese authorities have warned of possible action to stop excessive declines in the yen. Friday’s USD/JPY price analysis unveils a bullish stance, driven by the dollar’s resurgence, setting the stage for a fifth consecutive week of gains. Yet, investors trod carefully in anticipation of the US wholesale inflation report. –Are you interested to learn more about forex options trading? Check our detailed guide- On Thursday, USD/JPY fell after the US retail sales report missed forecasts. A significant drop in US sales in January indicated a slowdown in the economy. This led to a momentary pause in the decline of Fed rate-cut bets. Consequently, the dollar fell, allowing the yen to go below the $150 level. However, the pair recovered on Friday as investors awaited more data for insights into the Fed’s rate-cut timing. Notably, Fed’s Raphael Bostic said on Thursday that he was not ready to endorse rate cuts. Still, he acknowledged that the Fed had made much progress in lowering inflation. Meanwhile, investors are cautious as the yen hovers around the $150 level, which could prompt an intervention. Recent yen weakness has been a result of the stronger dollar. Moreover, investors are readjusting expectations on how aggressively the BoJ will hike rates. Recent data revealed that Japan’s economy slipped into recession at the end of 2023. Consequently, the BoJ might shift its policy slower than markets expect. Japanese authorities have warned of possible action to stop excessive declines in the yen. However, as their verbal warning loses effectiveness, they might need to take action in the market to strengthen the yen. USD/JPY key events today The US Producer Price Index report US preliminary UoM consumer sentiment report USD/JPY technical price analysis: Bears make a feeble effort to breach channel support On the technical side, USD/JPY has made a weak attempt to break below its bullish channel support. At the same time, it punctured the 30-SMA support line. However, the RSI stayed in bullish territory above 50, supporting bullish momentum. -If you are interested in knowing about scalping forex brokers, then read our guidelines to get started- The price is trapped near the 150.00 critical psychological level. Therefore, bears must detach from this level and start making lower lows for the trend to reverse. Moreover, the price must start respecting the 30-SMA as resistance. However, if 150.00 holds firm as support, the price will soon rise to retest the 151.00 level. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/02/16/usd-jpy-price-analysis-bulls-eying-5th-consecutive-weekly-gain/

2024-02-16 09:14

ECB’s Francois Villeroy said the central bank should not wait too long before starting rate cuts. There was a bigger-than-expected decline in US retail sales in January. Markets expect 94-bps of rate cuts in 2024. The EUR/USD outlook took a bullish turn, propelled by slightly dovish commentary from ECB policymaker Francois Villeroy. Moreover, the dollar was weak after a sharp decline in the previous session due to poor sales data. –Are you interested to learn more about forex options trading? Check our detailed guide- On Friday, the ECB’s Francois Villeroy said that the central bank should not wait too long before starting rate cuts. According to him, it would be better to start early and cut gradually than to wait too long and do it aggressively. Meanwhile, on Thursday, ECB president Christine Lagarde sounded more hawkish. According to her, the central bank will likely hold off on rate cuts to avoid prolonging high inflation. Notably, Eurozone inflation has been declining. However, most policymakers need more confirmation that it will not start rising again. In the US, the dollar weakened after a dismal retail sales report. A bigger-than-expected decline in retail sales in January indicated poor consumer spending. Moreover, it showed that the economy was slowing down. However, this report had little impact on the outlook for rate cuts. Although bets for May edged higher, most traders now believe the first Fed cut will come in June. Notably, the initial jobless claims report from the US showed a still-tight labor market. This report continued the recent trend of upbeat US data, leading to a decline in rate-cut bets. As a result, markets now expect 94bps of rate cuts in 2024, a significant decline from 160bps at the end of last year. EUR/USD key events today US core PPI m/m US PPI m/m Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment EUR/USD technical outlook: Bullish sentiment emerges above 30-SMA On the charts, sentiment has shifted from bearish to bullish as the price has broken above the 30-SMA resistance. The bullish move came after the price paused at the 1.0701 support level. Additionally, the price started making large-bodied bullish candles that broke above the SMA. -If you are interested in knowing about scalping forex brokers, then read our guidelines to get started- Looking at the RSI, it is clear that bullish momentum is stronger now than it was the first time the price rose to retest the 1.0800 resistance level. Consequently, there is a higher chance bulls will break above 1.0800 to retest the 1.0900 critical resistance level. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/02/16/eur-usd-outlook-euro-surges-after-villeroys-less-dovishness/

2024-02-15 11:32

XAU/USD seems determined to rebound and recover after registering false breakdowns below the median line. The US data should move the price today. The S1 is seen as a potential upside target. The gold price turned to the upside and is trading at 1996 at the time of writing. The weakening dollar helped the XAU/USD buyers to take it higher in the short term. –Are you interested to learn more about forex options trading? Check our detailed guide- After a significant drop, the yellow metal could try to rebound and recover. Gold prices slumped after the United States reported higher inflation than expected in January. Yesterday, the United Kingdom Consumer Price Index reported only a 4.0% growth versus the 4.1% growth estimated, while the Core CPI registered a 5.1% growth, less compared to the 5.2% growth forecasted. The Australian data reported poor figures today, while the UK announced mixed economic figures. Later, the US data should be decisive. Retail Sales are expected to report a 0.2% drop, Core Retail Sales may announce a 0.2% growth, the Empire State Manufacturing Index could be reported at -13.7 points, while Unemployment Claims could jump from 218K to 219K. Furthermore, the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, Industrial Production, Capacity Utilization Rate, and Business Inventories data will also be released. Poor economic figures should weaken the USD and may force the XAU/USD to register a larger rebound. From the technical point of view, the XAU/USD found support on the descending pitchfork’s median line (ml). This represents a dynamic obstacle: the false breakdowns announced exhausted sellers. The first upside obstacle is represented by the weekly S2 of 1998. -If you are interested in knowing about scalping forex brokers, then read our guidelines to get started- Taking out this resistance and making a new higher high activates further growth towards the S1 (2011). If the DXY develops a larger drop, the price of gold could approach the upper median line (uml). Still, it’s premature to talk about such a larger rebound. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/02/15/gold-price-aims-to-regain-2000-eyes-on-us-retail-sales/

2024-02-15 10:08

Officials in Japan got concerned when the USD/JPY crossed above the $150 level. Data from Japan on Thursday revealed a recession in the last part of 2024. Economists expect BoJ rate hikes to start in April. On Thursday, the USD/JPY outlook took a bearish turn after Japanese officials sounded the alarm over the yen’s recent downturn. Officials in Japan got concerned on Wednesday when the pair crossed above the $150 level after the US inflation report. Meanwhile, data from Japan on Thursday revealed a recession in the last part of 2024. As a result, some experts believe the BoJ might hesitate to hike rates. –Are you interested to learn more about forex options trading? Check our detailed guide- The recent surge in USD/JPY beyond the $150 level came after the US released a high inflation report. Consequently, the dollar surged as investors pushed back rate hike bets to June. Japan’s top officials got worried when the yen broke above $150. Notably, Finance Minister Suzuki warned that he was closely monitoring currency moves. However, he did not comment on whether they would intervene to stem the yen’s decline. Meanwhile, currency diplomat Masato Kanda said that the country would do what was necessary if needed. On Thursday, Germany officially became the world’s third-largest economy, taking over from Japan. Notably, data revealed that Japan’s economy experienced a second quarter of contraction in economic growth. As a result, the BoJ might take longer before shifting from negative interest rates. However, some experts believe the stage is set for a policy shift as corporate spending is robust and the labor market is tight. Moreover, a Reuters poll found that economists expect rate hikes to start in April. USD/JPY key events today US retail sales report The US Empire State Manufacturing Index US initial jobless claims USD/JPY technical outlook: Price revisits bullish channel support. On the charts, the price has pulled back to its channel support after making new highs. USD/JPY is trading in a bullish channel, above the 30-SMA, showing a strong bullish bias. Moreover, the RSI recently got to the oversold region and is still in bullish territory. -If you are interested in knowing about scalping forex brokers, then read our guidelines to get started- The price broke above the 150.00 key resistance level and has now pulled back to retest this level and the channel support. Additionally, there is support at the 30-SMA line. If bulls are still strong, the price will bounce off this support zone and likely reach the 151.00 resistance level. However, a break below the zone would indicate a bearish sentiment shift. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/02/15/usd-jpy-outlook-yen-soars-amid-japanese-officials-concerns/