2024-05-27 22:04

Plus: how much longshot money was made betting on the SEC approving an Ethereum ETF? This week in prediction markets: Courting crypto voters appears to have boosted Trump's odds. Doug Burgum still trails behind Tim Scott for Republican VP pick. Longshot ether ETF approval contract prints triple-digit return for bettors, despite disputes over its resolution. Taking a strong pro-crypto stance may have strengthened Donald Trump's lead over incumbent president Joe Biden – at least if you go by the prediction markets. In the past week, Trump has promised to commute the sentence of Silk Road founder Ross Ulbricht – a figure near and dear to many in the crypto community – and vowed to make the U.S. a leader in the digital assets industry. It's a markedly more solicitous stance than the Biden administration has taken. Over the same period, Biden "yes" shares on PredictIt, an election betting platform popular among retail traders that settles trades in dollars, have slipped from 46 cents to 44 cents. Each share pays out $1 if Biden is reelected, and nothing if he loses. Effectively, the 44 cent price means the market sees a 44% chance he will be re-elected. Crypto-based Polymarket, which technically bans U.S. residents from using its service, has shown a similar shift in the odds. Trump has gained two percentage points on the platform over seven days, putting his odds at 56%, while Biden is down two percentage points, at 37%. The polls have shown neither as dramatic a gap between the two candidates, nor as dramatic a shift in the last week. Trump's polling lead has climbed just 80 basis points, to 1.7%, according to FiveThirtyEight averages. Proponents of prediction markets argue that they can be a more reliable gauge of sentiment and forecasting tool because unlike people answering questions on the phone, bettors have skin in the game. The markets have also taken an interest in North Dakota governor Doug Burgum as a possible running mate for Trump. Burgum has been a recent speaker at Trump rallies and the subject of a Wall Street Journal profile where Republican insiders describe him as a "rich guy with rich friends, which goes a long way with Trump." On Polymarket, Burgum shares are up three percentage points, currently trading at 18%, or 18 cents, while on PredictIt, they are down slightly, trading at 15 cents. On both platforms, Burgum trails Tim Scott, who's maintaining a lead of 23% on PredictIt, and 27% on Polymarket, well ahead of establish Republicans like Marco Rubio, at 10% on Polymarket, or Nikki Haley, at 4%. Ether ETF bets pay off bigly An arcane dispute has arisen on Polymarket regarding the resolution of the contract over whether the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission would bless ether ETFs. Bettors are clashing over whether "approval" means only the 19b-4 forms or also the S-1 filings. Rather unexpectedly, the SEC asked last week for updated 19b-4 filings from prospective issuers of Ethereum exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Days later, these filings – critical documents in the approval process – were green-lit by the SEC, stunning longtime analysts. It was thought that the SEC's uncertain view on ether's status as a security would delay things. But as baseball legend Yogi Berra said, it ain't over 'til it's over. Although the SEC has approved the 19b-4 forms for the ETFs, it must still approve the S-1 filings before trading can begin, James Seyffart, ETF analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, told CoinDesk. "ETFs are not considered 'approved' until both the relevant registration form (such as S-1, N-1A, or N-2) & the 19b-4 filing have been signed off on by the SEC," Matthew Sigel, VanEck's head of research, posted on X (formerly Twitter). Despite these bureaucratic technicalities, the Polymarket contract, which received over $13 million in bets, still resolved to "yes," meaning the contract's "oracle," or referee, decided the matter was settled. And that has led to some long-shot money being made. One user going by the handle Paperliss, who bought in near the bottom of the market at 7 cents, turned just over $300 into $4,358 for a return of 1,329%. Meanwhile, the largest holder of "Yes" shares in the contract, notgonnatrickme, posted a return of 61%, bringing his or her bet of just over $10,000 to a value of $16,902 when the contract closed. https://www.coindesk.com/news-analysis/2024/05/27/trump-widens-lead-over-with-biden-on-polymarket-and-predictit-after-courting-crypto-vote/

2024-05-27 17:14

The Uniswap Foundation's balance sheet shows $41.41 million in fiat and stablecoins and 730,000 UNI tokens. As of the end of Q1, the Uniswap Foundation held $41.41 million in fiat and stablecoins and 730,000 UNI tokens. The Foundation committed $4.34 million in new grants, disbursed $2.79 million previously, and designated UNI tokens for employee awards. The Uniswap Foundation – the nonprofit behind Uniswap – recently shared a look at its financials days before the community moves to vote to enable and distribute fees autonomously. According to a balance sheet shared by the Foundation, at the end of the first quarter it held $41.41 million in fiat and stablecoins, along with 730,000 UNI tokens. The fiat and stablecoins are designated for grant commitments and operational activities, while the UNI tokens are reserved for employee awards. Later this week, UNI token holders will vote for a new fee mechanism that would shift some rewards away from the decentralized exchange's liquidity providers to its token holders instead. If approved – and prior snapshot polls show it likely will be – the proposal will transfer control of the mainnet UniswapV3Factory to a new V3FactoryOwner contract. The new fee distribution plan will be activated in a second vote that hasn't yet been scheduled. SEC threats loom large This comes as the Uniswap Foundation prepares to fight the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Recently, the SEC issued the Foundation a Wells notice, signaling that it intends to recommend enforcement action against it in the future. The Wells Notice targets Uniswap's UNI and LP tokens, arguing they are investment contracts and alleging that they violating securities laws. Uniswap Labs disputes this, and says the SEC lacks jurisdiction, arguing LP tokens are merely bookkeeping devices. Uniswap also argues that it doesn't meet the SEC's own definition of an exchange. https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2024/05/27/uniswap-foundation-shares-balance-sheet-as-fee-vote-nears/

2024-05-27 11:59

JENNER tokens scored over $100 million in trading volume less than 24 hours after going live. But punters are unclear if it's related to the real Caitlyn Jenner. American celebrity Caitlyn Jenner apparently launched a token, JENNER, on the Solana blockchain, but its legitimacy was questioned due to past celebrity X account compromises. Despite skepticism among market participants and claims of being a hack, Jenner's account continued to promote the token, even releasing a video that appeared to confirm its authenticity. A token launched on the Solana blockchain, apparently by U.S. celebrity Caitlyn Jenner, has left crypto market observers scratching their heads. Late Sunday, a post on Jenner’s X account said she had issued the JENNER token using the Solana token deployer Pump Fun. Market participants quickly dismissed it as a likely hack because celebrity accounts on the social media platform have previously been compromised to falsely promote tokens or crypto protocols. Usually, such account compromises are caught early and shut down immediately by X's security teams. But Jenner’s account continued to advertise the token hours after the initial launch. “Nothing has been hacked,” a post read. “We will be solely focused on $Jenner and expect to hit $50m market cap in the first 24 hours,” another said. Market observers likely viewed the token with skepticism, as several American celebrities have previously been charged by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) for even promoting tokens. About six hours after the issuance, Jenner’s account released a video that appeared to show the celebrity talking about the token. The post specifically mentioned it was not a “deep fake,” and said the token had recorded more than $113 million in trading volumes in just four hours. “This is real. Get involved,” Jenner said in the purported video. “My new crypto coin.” A separate video post appeared to show Jenner’s manager Sophia Hutchins affirming that the token was real and that she was “managing the crypto project.” Some X users dismissed that video as a deep fake. The Block reported that posts promoting the token were also made on Jenner’s Instagram account. CoinDesk did not see these posts on Jenner’s account as of 10:48 UTC, indicative of their being taken down. Meanwhile, only 4% of punters voted for “Yes” on the “Was Caitlyn Jenner hacked?” market on the predictions platform Polymarket. The market had attracted over $1.2 million in bets as of early in the European afternoon. A request for comment posted through Jenner's website was not immediately answered on a U.S. national holiday. https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2024/05/27/caitlyn-jenner-meme-coin-sows-confusion-as-observers-question-its-provenance/

2024-05-27 08:43

Ether surged more than bitcoin over the weekend on renewed optimism for the second-largest cryptocurrency. Two Ethereum ecosystem tokens, PEPE and MOG, climbed to new highs on the back of U.S. ether ETF filings approvals, with traders treating them as beta bets. Open interest in futures for the tokens increased, suggesting new money entering the market, though the long-to-short ratio for PEPE indicates traders are betting against further price rises. Two Ethereum ecosystem tokens surged to record highs on Monday, fueled by last week's approval of key ether (ETH) exchange-traded fund (ETF) filings in the U.S. that persuaded some traders to consider meme tokens as beta bets. Frog-themed pepe (PEPE) and cat-themed mog (MOG) jumped 11% and 45%, respectively, in the past 24 hours as a beta bet narrative showed no signs of slowing. A beta bet is a way of gaining exposure to a main asset by investing in related networks or protocols. Trading volumes for PEPE across spot and futures hit over $1.8 billion, compared with a more usual range of $400 million-$600 million. The gains came as ether rose nearly 5% over the same period, leading the advance among major tokens as bitcoin (BTC) shed 1%. The broad-based CoinDesk 20 {{CD20}}, an index of the biggest tokens, minus stablecoins, lost 0.3%. Futures data shows open interest on pepe and mog-tracked instruments spiked up in the past 24 hours. PEPE open interest rose to $720 million from last week’s $550 million, while for MOG the figure rose to $8.3 million from $5 million. Rising open interest is considered a sign of new money entering the market, which may foreshadow further price volatility. However, a long-to-short ratio for PEPE is skewed in favor of bears at 54%, data from Coinalyze shows, showing traders are going short, or betting against, further price rises. As CoinDesk reported last week, traders have been considering PEPE and MOG as a levered way to gain exposure to ether. A rally in the two tokens started when analysts raised the odds of ether ETFs being approved for trading in the U.S. PEPE even zoomed into the 20 largest tokens by a market capitalization of over $6 billion, netting some early investors millions of dollars on an initial purchase of just $460. Since 2023, meme tokens – usually considered to have no intrinsic value, but which nevertheless enjoy tremendous followings – have recently risen in prominence as a beta bet on whichever ecosystem they are based on. Several Solana-based meme coin tokens surged from December to March as the network’s SOL tokens took off – contributing to ecosystem growth and garnering attention. Also in December, the Avalanche Foundation, a non-profit organization that maintains the Avalanche blockchain, said it would invest in meme tokens built on the network in recognition of the online culture and memetic value that such tokens can drive among investors. https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2024/05/27/ethereum-meme-coins-pepe-mog-hit-lifetime-highs-on-ether-etf-filing-approvals/

2024-05-27 07:33

Attackers exploited a tax function in the token’s code that allowed them to issue more tokens and completely drain liquidity pools. Hyped Base meme coin normie (NORMIE) plunged 99% on Sunday after being hit by an exploit that saw attackers manipulate the token’s total supply, completely draining its liquidity pools. Blockchain sleuths said attackers exploited a so-called tax function in the token’s contract to issue more tokens than the intended 1 billion supply. The extra tokens were then traded for ether. In an on-chain message late on Sunday, the attacker offered Normie developers a way to receive 90% of the stolen funds back if they agreed to relaunch the project. “I offer to return 90% of the exploited ETH, keeping 10% as a bug bounty (with no reprisals,” the on-chain message reads. “One condition: it, and the 600 ETH in the dev wallet, are used to fairly launch a new token that is used to reimburse NORMIE holders.” Six hundred ether is worth nearly $2.3 million at current prices. The move marked one of the first instances of an attacker keeping a project relaunch as a condition to return funds. Normie developers accepted the bounty offer as of early Monday, messages on the project's official Telegram group viewed by CoinDesk showed. In another on-chain message in Asian morning hours on Monday, the attacker called Normie’s contract code a “copy-paste” job which was likely not thoroughly reviewed by its developers prior to being pushed live. “This exact code is present in a number of other token contracts, a few of which significantly pre-date Normie. Most meme tokens are simply copy-paste jobs from the same small set of contracts, all with over-complicated tax logic in the transfer function,” the attacker said. “I suspect this simply a case of them re-using code they didn't thoroughly review,” they added. Before the dump, NORMIE was among the top meme coins on Base with a market capitalization of over $40 million and nearly 90,000 on-chain token holders, as per DEXTools metrics. Normie is slang for a “normal person,” and the Base version was modeled after a blue coloured frog that resembled the popular Pepe the Frog character. It sits at a market capitalization of just $700 as of early Monday following the exploit. Meanwhile, at least one NORMIE investor faced a massive loss due to the attack, with their $1.6 million in investment turning to just $150 in seconds. “Since $NORMIE was exploited, the 11.23M $NORMIE that this trader spent $1.16M to buy is now worth less than $150,” analysis firm Lookonchain posted on X. “He spent $1.16M to buy 11.23M $NORMIE at $0.1035 from Mar 25 to Apr 9 and has held it until now without selling it.” Normie’s X has been suspended as of early Asian hours on Monday. https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2024/05/27/normie-dumps-99-as-attacker-calls-meme-coins-tax-contract-a-copy-paste-job/

2024-05-26 01:19

Ulbricht has served 11 years of his sentence of two life terms plus 40 years for creating the darknet marketplace. Donald J. Trump has pledged to commute Silk Road founder Ross Ulbricht’s life sentence to time served if he’s re-elected president. “If you vote for me, on Day 1, I will commute the sentence of Ross Ulbricht to a sentence of time served,” Trump said during his Saturday night remarks at the Libertarian National Convention in Washington, D.C. “He’s already served 11 years, we’re gonna get him home.” Hours before those remarks, Trump took to social media to praise the crypto industry, writing on Truth Social: “I am very positive and open minded to cryptocurrency companies, and all things related to this new and burgeoning industry. Our country must be the leader in the field. There is no second place,” Trump wrote, adding that President Joe Biden “wants [the cryptocurrency industry] to die a slow and painful death. That will never happen with me!” In his evening address, Trump’s pledge to free Ulbricht was met with raucous cheers from the assembled audience, many of whom were holding up signs reading “Free Ross.” In 2015, Ulbricht was sentenced to two consecutive life sentences plus 40 years – effectively, life in prison without the possibility of parole – for creating and operating Silk Road. The now-defunct darknet marketplace was used to anonymously buy and sell goods, but was largely used for drugs. Silk Road operated from 2011 to 2013 and is widely considered the first real-world use case for Bitcoin. Ulbricht has become something of a martyr for many in the crypto community, as well as to many Libertarians, who see Ulbricht’s draconian sentence as a governmental overstep and a violation of his constitutional rights. In 2018, the Libertarian Party called on then-President Trump to pardon Ulbricht. Before Trump’s presidency ended in January 2021, he granted clemency to 143 individuals – pardoning 73, including Ripple board member Ken Kurson, and commuting the sentences of 70 others. He did not offer clemency to Ulbricht, Wikileaks founder Julian Assange or Edward Snowden, who released details about a U.S. surveillance program to American journalist Glenn Greenwald. Trump also made more general comments about cryptocurrency at the convention, telling attendees that he would “stop Joe Biden’s crusade to crush crypto – we’re gonna stop it.” “I will ensure that the future of crypto and the future of bitcoin will be made in the USA, not driven overseas. I will support the right to self custody,” Trump said, to cheers. “To the nation’s fifty million crypto holders, I say this: I will keep Elizabeth Warren and her goons away from your bitcoin, and I will never allow the creation of a central bank digital currency.” Trump has warmed up considerably to crypto in recent months, making several pro-crypto comments publicly and becoming the first major party presidential candidate to accept crypto donations. https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2024/05/26/trump-pledges-to-free-silk-road-creator-ross-ulbricht-if-re-elected/